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SYR, SYRAH RESOURCES LIMITED
blacksheep
post Posted: Yesterday, 10:32 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jan 16 2019, 11:22 AM

A couple of Broker ratings - for what they are worth

Canaccord Genuity cuts price target to $2.20 from $3.55

Rudi Filapek Vandyck/Fnarena comments below. Don't think there has been one CS target that has been met - other than the one when "speculation" surfaced re a Glencore t/o in the early days of the graphite bubble. Certainly helped the SP of SYR, and other graphite hopefuls, but the speculation failed to materialize and the graphite bubble burst - not to say there won't be another.

QUOTE
Today's award for the most original research report title goes to Credit Suisse: "Syrahously? Another downgrade". Cuts price target for Syrah Resources $SYR to $3.50 from $4.05, while retaining Outperform rating (assuming the bad news has to stop eventually) #ausbiz #XJO #mining


QUOTE
Credit Suisse rates SYR as Outperform

Syrah Resources has downgraded its March quarter graphite price to US$460-470/t from prior guidance of US$500-600/t provided in January.

The lower price realisation is attributed to mix and a faster-than-expected close of lower-priced historical 2018 contracts.

Credit Suisse maintains an Outperform rating and reduces the target to $3.50 from $4.05.






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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Mar 14 2019, 11:43 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Mar 13 2019, 02:59 PM

Not a lot to cheer about in today's Q12019 Interim Update and could explain recent sell off - were some in the know or just good guessers?

QUOTE
Production
• Production is on track in Q1 2019 for approximately 45kt in line with the lower end of guidance (45kt - 50kt).
Production optimisation and cost management actions are continuing.


Seems to me they are still having a few issues

QUOTE
Pricing
• Sales volumes are expected to exceed production volumes, between 45kt - 50kt dependent on shipping completions in March.
• Pricing for Q1 2019 is close to completion (subject to final shipping schedules).
• Expected Q1 2019 weighted average graphite price achieved is US$460 - US$470 per tonne (CIF) versus the guidance range of US$500 - US$600 per tonne with difference mainly due to:
o Product mix and final vessel scheduling weighted towards sales of fines graphite; and
o Faster than anticipated progress towards close out of lower priced contract volumes from 2018 (approximately 25% of Q1 2019 sales) to extinguish those contract volumes from the sales book.
• Syrah remains optimistic that improved prices are achievable on the basis of the forward contract and product mix.


I read that to be on top of production volume they also moved some of their inventory at Nacala . dependent on shipping completions in March. - shipping could be impacted by cyclone Idai, which began off the coast of Tanzania, drifted east towards Madagascar before turning west towards Africa/Mozambique and iis currently expected to hit north of Biera - A Rare Giant Cyclone Is Set to Make Landfall in Mozambique, Threatening Dangerous Floods - https://earther.gizmodo.com/a-rare-giant-cy...1833266829?IR=T. Something to watch in the next few days IMHO

"US$460 - US$470 per tonne (CIF) versus the guidance range of US$500 - US$600 per tonne" - approx 15% below expectation - practically giving it away, IMHO

"final vessel scheduling weighted towards sales of fines graphite" - why? Is it because orders are mostly for fines. or is this all they are able to produce ATM?

Syrah remains optimistic that improved prices are achievable on the basis of the forward contract and product mix. - "optimistic" doesn't sound positive to me.

QUOTE
Cash and Liquidity
• Despite lower than forecast prices, the cash position as at the end of Q1 2019 is expected to be ~US$55 million - US$57 million (guidance ~US$57 million), given disciplined cost management.
• Syrah re-emphasises Q2 2019 group net cash draw is forecast to be lower than Q1 2019 due to:
o Majority of the Battery Anode Material Project capital expenditure spend for the spherical graphite processing site in Louisiana USA, is completed in Q1 2019; and
o Continued operational ramp up at Balama and focus on product mix of sales.
• Syrah continues to focus on optimising production volume and cost against price.


Vidalia - location of the BAM facility - also under flood alert - http://www.hannapub.com/concordiasentinel/...948ec95c63.html - may slow operations down a bit

A bit of a rally this morning, but having now provided a glimpse of the info that will be contained in the upcoming March Qtrly - and unless they have some new positive news in the meantime - I can't see too much upside.

Shorts yesterday just under the notable short alert - 0.05%
QUOTE
Wed 13th Mar, 2019 1,658,691 343,628,172 0.48% 15,909,816 10.43%

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=SYR

SP currently up 3.77% @ $1.10

Daily chart



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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Mar 13 2019, 02:59 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Mar 12 2019, 01:12 PM

15 mil volume today??? One 9 mil S3XT @ $1.05

QUOTE
03:15pm AEDT 1.05 9,080,941 9,534,988.05 S3XT


https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=SYR

Daily chart
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6 monthly chart
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Mar 12 2019, 01:12 PM
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Shorts still in control, by looks of things.

Yesterday's daily shows a considerable uptick following this (below) trade @ 11c. Perhaps it was a signal shorters were covering? SP closed @ $1.17c

QUOTE
02:48pm AEDT 1.11 2,061,413 2,288,168.43 S3XT

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Rally didn't last. SP today (currently) $1.11 down 5.13%. One good thing I guess is that gap from years ago when the SYR rocket first took off - on the back of one drill hole - seems to have now closed - if I recall correctly the gap was around $1.09

Short positions @ 5th March, 2019 = 17.55%
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=SYR

Absolutely no news being released by the company, no sub holder notices forthcoming - considering the recent volumes - can only assume volatility will continue until March Qtrly is released at the end of April

There was an article back in 2017 written after Credit Suisse put a $7 target price on SYR when the SP was $2.67, and a activist short seller, Viceroy Research, suggested it was worth 70c - "Syrah Resources: is this Tesla-driven stock worth 70c or $7?". The SP never got to Viceroy's target. I wonder, however, if Viceroy are still short?


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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Mar 7 2019, 07:52 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Mar 6 2019, 11:09 AM

Grindrod Limited - SYR's logistics provider in MOZ - has released 2018 Provisional Audited Results for the YE 31 December 2018. Their coverage - page 14 + 15 - provides the following

QUOTE
The construction of the cross-dock facility in Nacala was completed in the first half of the year and the logistics contract for a graphite customer from the mine in Balama to the Port of Nacala commenced in June 2018. A steady volume rampup resulted in 79 600 tonnes handled for the year with expectations of further increasesby the end of 2019.

Volume improvements in the Road transportation, Containerised cargo and Warehousing businesses resulted in
positive earnings, albeit marginal, from the losses incurred in 2017. An operational review of the business and increased
focus on cost containment and property asset utilisation is ongoing and should result in further earnings improvements.


From SYR's Dec 2019 Qtrly they shipped 73kt via Grindrod and a further 20kt was held @ Grindrod's cross dock facility = 93kt. Not sure why the difference - 79.6kt vs 93kt - can only think some product left Balama and was en route to Nacala, but then that also would have been "handled by Grindrod since they transport from mine to port

QUOTE
Tonnes (‘000) - FY 2018
Graphite Sold and Shipped 73
Inventory at Nacala as at end of period (sales orders awaiting shipment) 20
Inventory at Balama/ USA as at end of period 11
Total Annual Production 104






--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Mar 6 2019, 11:09 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Feb 26 2019, 11:24 AM

Thought UBS might have returned borrowed stock - the SP was up slightly this morning - 1.57% @ $1.29. However gross shorts yesterday, whilst not triggering a notable short alert (0.50%) were just under @ 0.40%. Could mean shorters not finished just yet. Begs the question - how low do they expect the SP to go and why?
Total short positions as at 27/2/19 = 17.63%
QUOTE
Tue 5th Mar, 2019 1,376,847 343,628,172 0.40% 3,420,664 40.25%

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=SYR
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 


blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 26 2019, 11:24 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Feb 22 2019, 10:48 AM

Notable short alert, indicating the stock has been shorted more than 0.5% on the day, issued yesterday. Suggests (to me - all IMHO) SP - having recently been "helped" along to rise - is probably about fall once more. Same pattern as before. Won't change, again IMHO, until some "real" positive news

QUOTE
Mon 25th Feb, 2019 3,077,534 343,628,172 0.89% 4,341,852 70.88%

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=SYR
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 22 2019, 12:04 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Feb 21 2019, 10:50 AM

QUOTE
The Loan Agreement has been terminated earlier than the original 2-year term at the Company’s option and on a non-recourse basis. Cessation of the $4.2 million loan has occurred by the Lender taking possession of 2,281,782 Syrah shares held as security, hence leaving no obligation outstanding.


Apart from the question as to who was the loan provider, you have to also ask why did CSE terminate the loan agreement, thereby handing over possession of the 2.2mil shares to the provider, some 6 - 7 months before repayment of the loan was due and at a time when the SYR share price was at an all time low? Especially when their whole reason for borrowing to take up extra SYR shares was that CSE directors were of the opinion - " that the share price of Syrah has considerable potential upside" - see below. Doesn't add up, IMHO.

This was CSE ann re the loan
QUOTE
Copper Strike Limited (“Copper Strike” or the “Company”) is pleased to advise that it
has taken up 100% of its retail entitlement in the Syrah Resources pro-rata accelerated
Non-Renounceable Entitlement Offer as announced by Syrah on 19 September 2017.
The entitlement is 1,047,619 new shares.
In order to fund this take-up, the Company has entered into a Loan Agreement whereby
the Company will receive an initial advance of $3.55million with the loan to be secured
by the provision of 1,800,000 Syrah shares by way of security to fund the participation
in the Syrah Entitlement Offer. A further advance will occur this week which covers
payment of interest and fees for the term of the loan.
A summary of the material terms of the loan are as follows:
- Initial Advance: $3,550,000
- Repayment Date: 2 years
- Interest Rate: 2.99%
- Origination Fee 2.50%
- Initially Secured Syrah Shares: 1,800,000
Copper Strike believes that the share price of Syrah has considerable potential upside,
and as such this decision has been made in line with the Directors view that it is in the
best interests of the Company to increase this investment supported by a moderate
amount of gearing
.


Another question is, does the early termination of the loan/handing over of shares in SYR have anything to do with the current ATO legal case involving Harry Hatch/Gasmere P/L - director and largest shareholder of CSE ? CSE are still a substantial holder of SYR. As yet, I haven't seen a change in substantial holding submitted by CSE in their now reduced SYR holding.

In this article appearing in The Australian - Share trader shifted $1.5n to Greek accounts, ATO case reveals - Harry hatch is alleged to have said - "the ATO case against him was “bullshit” because it confused money flowing through his bank account on behalf of clients for whom he purchased shares with personal income.". That raises another question - who really owns the Indirect:23 million Ordinary fully paid shares in CSE - 21.61% - in the name of Hatch/Gasmere. Gasmere was once a substantial holder in SYR, although they have not appeared on the Top 20 for a while. Could still be sitting there below #20. Former SYR MD, Paul Kehoe, was also mentioned in the article as being on the list of dozens of names linked to deposits in Mr Hatch's bank account.



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 22 2019, 10:48 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Feb 21 2019, 02:59 PM

When UBS hang up their shorts for good - that could be a while yet, unless the company comes out with some out of the blue good news that UBS, and the rest of the market, is not currently aware of biggrin.gif



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Feb 21 2019, 02:59 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Feb 21 2019, 12:08 PM

So when do we buy back in??
Mick



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