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MXG, MULTIPLEX GROUP
dawno
post Posted: Feb 24 2006, 11:58 PM
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In reply to: wolverine on Friday 24/02/06 08:09pm

Thanks wolva - an interesting perspective & mostly I can only agree with it.
Unless MXG comes out with a further right hook it would appear that they intend to clear the Wembley decks with this one & move on. At least that's the way I am reading it. If this all turns out to be the case then MXG may well turn out to be worth a risk form the current share price starting point. Anyway I'm pretty much in at around current prices so hopefully time will unveil it to be the long term recovery story I'm hoping for.
The rest of the business all looks OK - I remember buying into Leightons just after big price shock on a couple of their jobs about 2 years back & selling a year later for a good profit. What did I do wrong, well I didn't use the trend is my friend strategy & should have stuck with em to this day hey - what happened to 'long term dawno'????.....I paid the penalty for varying the proven plan. A weak moment & paid the penalty.
dawno tongue.gif



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THE COST OF MY COMMENTS IS NOTHING - SOME WOULD SAY THAT'S ABOUT ALL ITS WORTH - THEY MIGHT BE RIGHT.

Long Term Contrarian Value Investing: The herd hate me & I hate the herd - but that's the way I like it because I then know I must be on the right track.
 
wolverine
post Posted: Feb 24 2006, 08:09 PM
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dawno some stuff from SBCitibank

Wembley remains a drag - warrants investigation by private eyes
† MXG reported a disappointing interim result with a loss of -$119.7m, primarily due to Wembley, with its deficit for the period widening from a $165m estimate in Dec 2005 to $250.7m currently. Both full liquidated damages of £14m and a delayed programme have now been included.
† The other key piece of news that attracted investors' attention was the statement by management that MXG was in breach of some financial covenants, though MXG expects the banks "will continue to support the company". We believe the issues mainly relate to interest coverage ratios that have obviously been breached, with MXG making a loss.

† Clearly the Wembley project is an unmitigated disaster, in our opinion, though the share price (a) has almost halved since its peak in 2005 of $6.15 and (b) is trading >20% below its $4.05 IPO price. Since listing, MXG has made value-creating acquisitions of Ronin and Duelguide, and built promising businesses in Investment and Facilities Management. Therefore, we believe it is important not to throw the baby out with the bathwater.

† Construction (ex Wembley) has a forward order book of >A$7bn, the Development pipeline stands at nearly A$13bn, and the Trust has an NTA of $2.73, with further upside to this at June 2006. Hence, we believe many of the parts would be attractive to buyers, with the Roberts family an obvious purchaser for Corporation assets. In our view, corporate action would be the fastest way to extract value for shareholders given the lengthy task in front of management to rebuild Corporation profits and, more importantly, investor confidence.

† We rate MXG Hold/ High Risk with a target price of $3.36 (prev $3.45).







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TOO MANY CHIEFS

NOT ENOUGH INDIANS
 
dawno
post Posted: Feb 13 2006, 03:00 PM
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I believe for those willing to be the long term recovery stock enthusiasts that MXG is one that really fits the bill - may mean taking a little chance but rewards could be good I feel
dawno wink.gif

Delays, drugs and downgrades: Multiplex faces hot topics

THIS week will be crunch time for Multiplex when it meets with investors for the half-year results on Thursday, all of whom will be wanting questions answered on London's Wembley Stadium.

The group said on Friday that it still stood by its January 31 statement that there was a "70 per cent chance the stadium would be ready for the FA Cup final" on May 13, but warned "material circumstances" continued to hinder construction.

Winston Sammut, director of Maxim Asset Management, said: "Investors are waiting for some resolution and details from Multiplex management as to the group's position on Wembley this Thursday."

Adding to the group's woes was a report last Friday of drugs being used by some workers at Wembley.

Multiplex said in a statement: "Allegations of drug use are treated with the utmost seriousness by Multiplex. Since learning of these allegations, Multiplex has stepped up vigilance throughout all sites … Local police have also been notified".

There were also suggestions last week that the investigation into Multiplex, launched by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission last year about misleading the market, was "imminent".

But it is understood that the investigation is still under way.

Multiplex's spokesman said the diversified construction and funds management group continued to stand by its profit guidelines issued late last year, and again on January 31 this year, when it warned that full- year profit, which had been estimated at $215 million, was likely to be slashed to only $50 million.

While many local institutions sold out of Multiplex last year, there remains much interest in the stock among analysts and many questions for managing director Andrew Roberts and finance director Bob McKinnon.

Merrill Lynch's property team said recently, in a note to clients: "There are a number of events which could provide catalysts to the Multiplex share price including completion of Wembley on target or if Multiplex can get the development division firing on all cylinders …

"This remains valid but we believe that the market will not pay for this upside in full until there is absolute clarity on Wembley and it has completely passed from Multiplex to the client."





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THE COST OF MY COMMENTS IS NOTHING - SOME WOULD SAY THAT'S ABOUT ALL ITS WORTH - THEY MIGHT BE RIGHT.

Long Term Contrarian Value Investing: The herd hate me & I hate the herd - but that's the way I like it because I then know I must be on the right track.
 
dawno
post Posted: Feb 3 2006, 10:05 PM
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In reply to: wolverine on Tuesday 31/01/06 08:23pm

Hey Wolva & other MXG dour stayers - I'm a bit late touchin base again on this one. Waded into a few more following their latest announcement on the Wembley situation. What! is no news good news? - well I don't think MXG would be game to cross the ASX conditions of market announcements if it really did no any different especially after their earlier debacles claiming ignorance to conditions of listed company requirements.
I'm thinking that there is still a good chance that MXG will come out heros over all this - imagine if it gets it right for the FA games on time (still a 70% possibility so the odds are in favour hey) - this is known all around the business circles as a bugger of a job plus a real engineering feat for certain aspects of design, etc. If MXG come good at the finish then we are looking at big rebounds in the stock - At current prices it has been said by avid annalysts that you are getting the construction bit of the company for nil.
Its cheap if that's the case. I like this play. Dawno tongue.gif



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THE COST OF MY COMMENTS IS NOTHING - SOME WOULD SAY THAT'S ABOUT ALL ITS WORTH - THEY MIGHT BE RIGHT.

Long Term Contrarian Value Investing: The herd hate me & I hate the herd - but that's the way I like it because I then know I must be on the right track.
 
datum
post Posted: Jan 31 2006, 10:12 PM
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In reply to: Livas1 on Tuesday 31/01/06 10:10pm


this news story from google uk homepage.
take note of the the last paragraph----
penalty per day $au280,000 (GBP120,000)
also a very valid point is staff training. You cant have the the final concrete pour setting
on march 30 & then have staff start on march 31st.
For example , it would be like building a brand new MCG & expecting the
the staff to learn the complex in a matter of weeks. This , i think is impossible.
I think the bookmakers are right on the money




'Smart Money' On Cardiff Cup Final
Tue 31 Jan, 8:09 AM


Bookmakers Ladbrokes believe it is now odds-on that this year's FA Cup final will be staged at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff rather than the new Wembley.



Wembley builders Multiplex yesterday admitted there is only a 70% chance of construction work being finished on time.

However, with the original March 31 deadline and handover to the Football Association looming, Cardiff's Millennium Stadium is now the 8/11 favourite to host this year's final.

Ladbrokes spokesman Robin Hutchison said: "With the FA having already provisionally booked the Millennium Stadium the smart money is on a Cardiff Cup Final."

Multiplex warned in December there was "a material risk" of the £757million stadium not being finished by the March 31 deadline.

Now they have admitted the situation has deteriorated and they will tell Wembley chiefs in three weeks whether they will be able to make the deadline.

Following the announcement Wembley's chief executive Michael Cunnah said they would be monitoring progress very closely, but conceded that the safety and quality of the stadium was paramount to the cup final being held there on May 13.

Cunnah said in a statement: "Multiplex have stated that they are 70% confident of delivering the stadium according to the revised schedule but they have acknowledged that risks continue to exist.

"WNSL work closely with Multiplex. We will continue to monitor progress on a daily basis and take their expert advice on how the stadium is progressing. Multiplex today said that in three weeks they will be able to advise whether the stadium will make March 31 completion.

"However The FA will make the decision on where the cup final will be held. The safety and the quality of the stadium must remain the most important factors and will ultimately dictate the outcome of this decision."

Multiplex will face penalty clauses up to a reported £120,000 a day if they over-run, though they are trying to challenge that figure, but even if they do finish by March 31 the FA will still have to decide whether they have time to hire and train all the staff needed




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This is not a bottom draw stock. This is a stock you take to the grave with you.
 
Livas1
post Posted: Jan 31 2006, 09:10 PM
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In reply to: wolverine on Tuesday 31/01/06 09:23pm

Thanks for the reply.

At this stage this is a technical trade for me, but it always pays to keep up to date with the fundamentals wink.gif

There is a pretty good trading range (3.10-3.60 give or take a few ticks) worth exploiting biggrin.gif



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LIVE BIG
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Life is a journey not a destination
The only thing that moves markets is surprise...
"The wisest men follow their own direction" - Euripides
People sell stocks for many reasons, but they buy for only one...
 

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wolverine
post Posted: Jan 31 2006, 08:23 PM
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hi livas

i haven't really followed them too closely since i sold soon after listing. wembley may not be fully accounted for yet but i imagine the rest of the business is running fine so once wembley is cleared (at least the sentiment) then perhaps a good one to build a position in.

today's move?? dunno.



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TOO MANY CHIEFS

NOT ENOUGH INDIANS
 
Livas1
post Posted: Jan 31 2006, 06:35 PM
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In reply to: wolverine on Tuesday 31/01/06 07:28pm

Hi wolverine

I have had my eye on MXG of late.

What do you make of todays move? Im not sure whether it can largely be attributed to the news regarding the Southern Cross building.

I read a bit of media on monday about how the losses on the Wembley project would be worse than what was outlined in December. Todays announcement didnt ellude to that, so maybe things have stabilised?..

Cheers
Livas1



--------------------
LIVE BIG
Embrace the moment!
Life is a journey not a destination
The only thing that moves markets is surprise...
"The wisest men follow their own direction" - Euripides
People sell stocks for many reasons, but they buy for only one...
 
wolverine
post Posted: Jan 31 2006, 06:28 PM
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Posts: 10,059
Thanks: 878


from Aegis


Multiplex Group (MXG) - Wembley Update
MXG management continue to be two-toned in its update on the likely completion dates of Wembley Stadium and the likelihood of further downgrades to its previous estimates. Management have moved from a firm statement of completion in April 2006 to a 'may be'. With the board and senior management focused on getting Wembley across the line in time, we have renewed concerns on the rest of the construction and development business due to the lack of senior management attention.




--------------------
TOO MANY CHIEFS

NOT ENOUGH INDIANS
 
wolverine
post Posted: Jan 3 2006, 08:13 PM
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In reply to: dawno on Tuesday 03/01/06 09:03pm

i like this one more than TLS dawno, all the reasons you have posted apply to MXG. at some point the market will look beyond Wembley......when they are sure there is no more lime flavoured surprises (to dredge up a classic).



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TOO MANY CHIEFS

NOT ENOUGH INDIANS
 
 


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