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Share Investing For Dummies, with James Dunn, finance commentator
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 10 2019, 12:23 PM
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A golden oldie

THE DEADLY ART OF STOCK MANIPULATION

In every profession, there are probably a dozen or two major rules. Knowing them is what separates the professional from the amateur. Not knowing them at all? Well, let’s put it this way: How safe would you feel if you suddenly found yourself piloting (solo) a Boeing 747 as it were landing on an airstrip? Unless you are a professional pilot, you would probably be frightened out of your wits and would soil your underwear. Hold that thought as you read this essay because I will explain to you how market manipulation works. What the professionals and the securities regulators know and understand, which the rest of us do not, is this.

RULE NUMBER ONE:

ALL SHARP PRICE MOVEMENTS -- WHETHER UP OR DOWN --ARE THE RESULT OF ONE OR MORE (USUALLY A GROUP OF) PROFESSIONALS MANIPULATING THE SHARE PRICE.


This should explain why a mining company finds something good and" nothing happens" or the stock goes down. At the same time, for NO apparent reason, a stock suddenly takes off for the sky! On little volume! Someone is manipulating that stock, often with an unfounded rumour. In order to make these market manipulations work, the professionals assume: (a) The Public is STUPID and (b) The Public will mainly buy at the HIGH and © The Public will sell at the LOW. Therefore, as long as the market manipulator can run crowd control, he can be successful. Let's face it: The reason you speculate in such markets is that you are greedy AND optimistic. You believe in a better tomorrow and NEED to make money quickly. It is this sentiment which is exploited by the market manipulator. He controls YOUR greed and fear about a particular stock. If he wants you to buy, the company's prospects look like the next Microsoft. If the manipulator wants you to desert the sinking ship, he suddenly becomes very guarded in his remarks about the company, isn't around to glowingly answer questions about the company and/or GETS issued very bad news about the company. Which brings us to the next important rule.


RULE NUMBER TWO:

IF THE MARKET MANIPULATOR WANTS TO DISTRIBUTE (DUMP)HIS SHARES, HE WILL START A GOOD NEWS PROMOTIONAL CAMPAIGN.


Ever wonder why a particular company is made to look like the greatest thing since sliced bread? That sentiment is manufactured. Newsletter writers are hired -- either secretly or not -- to cheerlead a stock. PRfirms are hired and let loose upon an unsuspecting public. Contracts to appear on radio talk shows are signed and implemented. Stockbrokers get "cheap" stock to recommend the company to their "book" (that means YOU, the client in his book). An advertising campaign is rolled out (television ads, newspaper ads, card deck mailings). The company signs up to exhibit at "investment conferences" and "gold shows" (mainly so they can get a little "podium time" to hype you on their stock and tell you how "their company is really different" and" not a stock promotion.") Funny little "hype" messages are posted on Internet newsgroups by the same cast of usual suspects. The more, the merrier. And a little "juice" can go a long way toward running up the stock price. The HYPE is on. The more clever a stock promoter, the better his knowledge of the advertising business. Little gimmicks like "positioning" are used. Example: Make a completely unknown company look warm and fuzzy and appealing to you by comparing it to a recent success story. The only reason you have been invited to this seemingly incredible banquet is that YOU are the main course. After the market manipulator has suckered you into "his investment," exchanging HIS paper for YOUR cash, the walls begin to close in on you. Why is that?

RULE NUMBER THREE:

AS SOON AS THE MARKET MANIPULATOR HAS COMPLETED HIS DISTRIBUTION (DUMPING) OF SHARES, HE WILL START A BAD NEWS OR NO NEWS CAMPAIGN.


Your favourite home-run stock has just stalled or retreated a bit formats high. Suddenly, there is a news VACUUM. Either NO news or BAD rumours. I discovered this with quite a few stocks. I would get LOADS of information and "hot tips." All of a sudden, my pipeline was shut-off. Some companies would even issue a news release CONDEMNING me ("We don't need 'that kind of hype’ referring to me!). Cute, huh? When the company wanted fantastic hype circulated hither and yon, there would be someone there to spoon-feed me. The second the distribution phase was DONE....ooops! Sorry, no more news. Or, "I'm sorry. He's not in the office." Or, "He won't be back until Monday." The really slick market manipulators would even seed the Internet newsgroups or other journalists to plant negative stories about that company. Or start a propaganda campaign of negative rumours on all available communication vehicles. Even hiring a "contraire" or" special PR firm" to drive down the price. Even hiring someone to attack the guy who had earlier written low about the company. (This is not a game for the faint-hearted!) You'll also see the stock drifting endlessly. You may even experience a helpless feeling, as if you were floating in outer space without a lifeline. That is exactly HOW the market manipulator wants you to feel. See Rule Number Five below. He may also be doing this to avoid the severe disappointment of a "dry hole" or a "failed deal." You'll hear that oft-cried refrain, "Oh well, that's the junior minerals exploration business... very risky!" Or the oft-quoted statistic, "Nine out of 10 businesses fail each year and this IS a Venture Capital Start-up stock exchange." Don't think it wasn't contrived. If a geologist at a junior mining company wasn't optimistic and rosy in his promise of exploration success, he would be replaced by someone who was! Ditto for the high-tech deal, in a world awash with PhD's. So, how do you know when you are being taken? Look again at Rule #1.Inside that rule, a few other rules unfold which explain how a stock price is manipulated.

RULE NUMBER FOUR:

ANY STOCK THAT TRADES HUGE VOLUME AT HIGHER PRICES SIGNALS THE DISTRIBUTION PHASE.


When there was less volume, the price was lower. Professionals were accumulating. After the price runs, the volume increases. The professionals bought low and sold high. The amateurs bought high (and will soon enough sell low). In older books about market manipulation and stock promotion, which I've recently studied, the mark-up price referred to THREE times higher than the floor. The floor is the launch pad for the stock. For example, if one looks at the stock price and finds a steady flat line on the stock's chart of around 10p , then that range is the FLOOR. Basically, the mark-up phase can go as high as the market manipulator is capable of taking it. From my observations, a good mark-up should be able to run about five to ten times higher than the floor, with six to seven being common. The market manipulator will do everything in his power to keep you OUT OF THE STOCK until the share price has been marked up by at least two-three times, sometimes resorting to "shaking you out" until after he has accumulated enough shares. Once the mark-up has begun, the stock chart will show you one or more spikes in the volume -- all at much higher prices (marked up by the manipulator, of course).


RULE NUMBER FIVE:

THE MARKET MANIPULATOR WILL ALWAYS TRY TO GET YOU TO BUY AT THE HIGHEST, AND SELL AT THE LOWEST PRICE POSSIBLE.



Just as the manipulator will use every available means to invite you to "the party," he will savagely and brutally drive you away from "his stock" when he has fleeced you. The first falsehood you assume is that the stock promoter WANTS you to make a bundle by investing in his company. So begins a string of lies that run for as long as your stomach can take it. You will get the first clue that "you have been had" when the stock stalls at the higher level. Somehow, it ran out of steam and you are not sure why. Well, it ran out of steam because the market manipulator stopped running it up. It's over inflated and he can't convince more people to buy. The volume dries up while the share price seems to stall. LOOK AT THE TRADING VOLUME, NOT THE SHARE PRICE! When earlier, there may have been X amounts of shares trading each day for eight out of 12 trading days (as in the case of CONROY), now the volume has slipped to X amount shares (or so) daily. There are some buyers there, enough for the manipulator to continue dumping his paper, but only so long as he can enlist one or more individuals/services to bang his drum. He may continue feeding the promo guys a string of "promises" and" good news down the road." (Believe me, this HAS happened to me!) But, when the news finally arrives, the stock price goes THUD! This is entirely orchestrated

RULE NUMBER SIX:

IF THIS IS A REAL DEAL, THEN YOU ARE LIKELY TO BE THE LAST PERSON TO BE NOTIFIED OR WILL BE DRIVEN OUT AT THE LOWER PRICES.



Like Jesse Livermore wrote, "If there's some easy money lying around, no one is going to force it into your pocket." The same concept can be more clearly understood by watching the trades. When a market manipulator wants you into his stock, you will hear LOUD noises of stock promotion and hype. If you are "in the loop," you will be bombarded from many directions. Similarly, if he wants you out of the stock, then there will be orchestrated rumours being circulated, rapid-fired at you again from many directions. Just as good news may come to you in waves, so will bad news. You will see evidence of a VERY sharp drop in the share price with HUGE volume. That is you and your buddies running for the exits. If the deal is really for real, the market manipulator wants to get ALL OF YOUR SHARES or as many as he can... and at the lowest price he can. Where as before, he wanted you IN his market, so he could dump his shares to you at a higher price, NOW when he sees that this deal IS for real, he wants to pay as little as possible for those same shares... YOUR shares which he wants you to part with, as quickly as possible. The market manipulator will shake you out by DRIVING the price as lows he can. Just as in the "accumulation" stage, he wants to keep everything as quiet as possible so he can snap up as many of the shares for himself, he will NOW turn down, or even turn off, the volume so he can repeat the accumulation phase. The accumulation phase was TOP SECRET. The noise level was deadingly silent. As soon as the insiders accumulated all their shares, they let YOU in on the secret.

RULE NUMBER SEVEN:

CONVERSELY, YOU WILL OFTEN BE THE LAST TO KNOW WHEN THIS DEAL SHOWS SIGNS OF FAILURE.



Twenty-twenty hindsight will often show you that there was a "little stumble" in the share price, just as the "assays were delayed" or the" deal didn't go through." Manipulators were peeling off their paper to START the downslide. And ACCELERATE it. The quick slide down makes it improbable for your getting out at more than what you originally paid for the stock... and gives you a better reason for holding onto it "a little longer" in case the price rebounds. Then, the drifting stage begins and fear takes over. And unless you have nerves of steel and can afford to wait out the manipulator, you will more than likely end up selling out at a cheap price. For the insider, market maker or underwriter is obliged to buy back all of your paper in order to keep his company alive and maintain control of it. The less he has to pay for your paper, the lower his cost will be to commence his stock promotion again... at some future date. Even if his company has no prospects AT ALL, his "shell" of a company has some value (only in that others might want to use that structure so they can run their own stock promotion). So, the manipulator WILL buy back his paper. He just wants to make sure that he pays as little for those shares as possible.

RULE NUMBER EIGHT:

THE MARKET MANIPULATOR WILL COMPEL YOU INTO THE STOCK SO THAT YOU DRIVE UP ITS PRICE SHARES.


Placing a Market Order or Pre-Market Order is an amateur's mistake, A market manipulator (traders included here) can jack up the share price during your market order and bring you back a confirmation at some preposterous level. The Market Manipulator will use the "tape" against you. He will keep buying up his own paper to keep you reaching for a higher price. He will get in line ahead of you to buy all the shares at the current price and force you to pay MORE for those shares. He will tease you and MAKE you reach for the higher price so you "won't miss out." Miss out on what? Getting your head chopped off, that's what! One can avoid market manipulation by not buying during the huge price spikes and abnormal trading volumes, also known as chasing the stock to a higher price.

RULE NUMBER NINE:

THE MARKET MANIPULATOR IS WELL AWARE OF THE MOTIONS YOU ARE EXPERIENCING DURING A RUN UP AND A COLLAPSE AND WILL PLAY YOUR EMOTIONS LIKE A PIANO.


During the run up, you WILL have a rush of greed which compels you to run into the stock. During the collapse, you WILL have a fear that you will lose everything... so you will rush to exit. See how simple it is and how clear a bell it strikes? Don't think this formula isn’t tattooed inside the mind of every manipulator. The market manipulator will play you on the way up and play you on the way down. If he does it very well, he will make it look like someone else's fault that you lost money! Promise to fill up your wallet? You'll rush into the stock. Scare you into losing every penny you have in that stock? You'll run away screaming with horror! And vow to NEVER, ever speculate in such stocks again. But many of you still do.... The manipulator even knows how to bring you back for yet another play. What actors! No wonder Vancouver is sometimes called "Hollywood North."

FINAL RULE:

A NEW BATCH OF SUCKERS ARE BORN WITH EVERY NEW PLAY
.

The Financial Markets are a Cruel, Unkind and Dangerous Playing Field, one place where the newest amateurs are generally fleeced the most brutally.... usually by those who KNOW the above rules. Just as I have a duty to ensure that each of you understand how this game is played, YOU now have that same duty to guarantee that your fellow speculator understands these rules. Just as I would be a criminal for not making this data known to you, YOU would be just as criminal to keep it a secret. There will always be an unsuspecting, trusting fool whom the rabid dogs will tear to shreds, but it does NOT have to be this way. IF every subscriber made this essay broadly known to his friends, acquaintances and family, and they passed it on to their friends, word of mouth could cause many of these market manipulators to pause. IF this effort were done strenuously by many, then perhaps the financial markets could weed out the crooked manipulators and the promoters could bring us more legitimate plays. The stock markets are a financing tool. The companies BORROW money from you, when you invest or speculate in their companies. They want their share price going higher so they can finance their deal with less dilution of their shares... if they are good guys. But, how would you feel about a friend or family member who kept borrowing money from you and never repaid it? That would be theft, plain and simple. So, a market manipulator is STEALING your money.



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: redace  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 9 2019, 12:03 PM
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extract from recent Motely Fool article.

QUOTE
Beware of other share market practices
On a different lesson for retail investors some of the oldest tricks in the share market book are still the commonest scams to avoid.

These include Ponzi or Pyramid-type schemes where newer investors’ money is used to pay off older investors to create the impression of a legitimate business offering excellent returns, while management pull out funds for their own enrichment.

There are many variants on Ponzi schemes, but on share markets they tend to involve companies raising a lot of capital and debt to pay off older investors and management. They will also tend to involve complex or opaque underlying investments and ownership structures that can help pull the wool over auditors’ eyes.

Recent examples include agricultural businesses Quintis Ltd (ASX: QIN) and Blue Sky Limited (ASX: BLA). Both collapsed after being exposed as scams and in hindsight showed some of the classic symptoms of Ponzi-itis.

These include opaque underlying assets in terms of valuation, unrealistic returns, conflicted management remuneration structures, undisclosed or complex related party transactions, excess capital raisings, and use of debt.

Pyramid schemes have operated for thousands of years in one form or another and regularly suck unknowing investors in.

A second classic mistake is to buy shares in companies that have great stories spun by numerous positive announcements, but no revenue or profit to show for it.

These companies tend to take advantage of less-sophisticated investors in story spaces such as pot stocks, blockbuster medical breakthroughs, huge mining deposits, or unprecedented industrial technology breakthroughs.

The share market trick of playing on investor ‘greed’ or fear of missing out (FOMO) goes back 300 years to the South Sea Co. Bubble of 1720, where every public investor lost all their money after being sucked in by the false promises of insiders running the business.

There are plenty of businesses operating on the local market that fall into the story stock category sucking in unknowing investors every day.

As a a word of warning if you want to make money speculating on these kind of story stocks you must be on the inside track with brokers and capital markets advisers to obtain shares at the IPO stage or earlier. You can then take advantage as the businesses’s stories are pumped onto local markets.

Otherwise you might end up a patsy after all the early shareholders have dumped stock.

The sometimes scary world of micro-caps is why serious investors tend to favour the blue-chip end of the market…..

https://www.fool.com.au/2019/10/09/isignthi...takes-to-avoid/

Just for the record, while MF cites BLA above, they also wrote articles like this one, suggesting it was a BUY - Why I rate Blue Sky Alternative Investments Ltd a buy at this share price
Stewart Vella | February 27, 2018 https://www.fool.com.au/2018/02/27/why-i-ra...is-share-price/




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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 20 2018, 11:33 AM
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Infographic from Visual Capitalist - http://www.visualcapitalist.com/6-biggest-...investors-make/

QUOTE
The 6 Biggest Mistakes Ordinary Investors Make
In many areas of life, we are often our own worst enemies. The realm of personal finance is no different.

What’s the biggest threat to achieving financial independence?

Unfortunately, it’s your own brain.

You can invest in all the right things, minimize fees and taxes, and even diversify your holdings. But if you fail to master your own psychology, it’s still possible to fall victim to financial self-sabotage.

THE BRAIN’S DESIGN
Today’s infographic is from Tony Robbins, and it uses data and talking points from his #1 Best Selling book Unshakeable: Your Financial Freedom Playbook, which is now available on paperback.

The graphic is based on a chapter in the book that reveals the key psychological limitations of the human brain. It turns out that these fallible survival instincts have been hardwired into our brains over millions of years, and they become very troublesome when we try to make rational financial decisions.

To overcome these instincts, investors need to adopt simple systems, rules, and procedures that can ensure the decisions around money we make are in our best long-term interest.

SIX PSYCHOLOGICAL PITFALLS TO AVOID
Remember these six pitfalls – and how to counteract them – and you’ll be able to avoid the biggest mistakes often made by investors.

MISTAKE #1:
Seeking confirmation of your own beliefs

Your brain is wired to seek and believe information that validates your existing beliefs. Our minds love “proof” of how smart and right we are.

Even worse, this is magnified by the online echo chambers of the modern world.

News media (MSNBC, Fox News, etc.) tend to favor one point of view
Google and Facebook filter our search results
Unsubstantiated rumors can run unchecked, as long as they reinforce existing points of view
This can be exceptionally detrimental in investing.

Convincing yourself that a particular stock or strategy is correct, without taking into account contradicting evidence, can be the nail in the coffin of financial freedom.

The Solution: Welcome opinions that contradict your own

The best investors know they are vulnerable to confirmation bias, and actively ask questions and seek qualified opinions that disagree with their own.

Ray Dalio, for example, seeks the smartest detractor of his idea, and then tries to find out their full reasoning behind their contrary opinion.


read the rest - http://www.visualcapitalist.com/6-biggest-...investors-make/

Rule #1 - Welcome opinions that contradict your own - rarely works on stock discussion forums sadsmiley02.gif



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

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blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 2 2017, 11:03 AM
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Wasn't sure under which thread to post this, but "Dummies" seemed to be the right word. This is a "doozy" about an overseas company....couldn't happen here, or could it?

QUOTE
Carlsbad man claimed his mines were worth $30 billion

But they weren't worth anything, says SEC
By Don Bauder, Aug. 1, 2017

Long before Mark Twain defined a gold mine as a hole in the ground with a liar on the top, slippery salesmen have tried to peddle highly inflated mining claims to naive investors.

Document
SEC suit against Wilson

On Friday (July 28), the Securities and Exchange Commission filed a doozy of a case in federal court. Defendants are long-time Carlsbad pitchman Robert W. Wilson and two Wyoming companies he owns. Wilson said he was going to resuscitate a mining project in Yuma that could produce graphite. He initially said the claim was worth $18 billion, then escalated the value to $30 billion.

Investors would get a 20 percent profit in 18 months, said Wilson. But in truth, Wilson's companies had "no significant assets" other than an option to purchase the claims on federal land, says the securities commission. Wilson estimated the size of a deposit by taking readings from his car's odometer as he drove around the land, and then made an estimate based on the price of the material. Wilson "has no education or training in mine valuation techniques, "says the securities agency.

In 2015 he told investors that the graphite deposit "may be upwards of 4 billion tons!" and the material was then selling for $2,500 per ton. He brought in $2 million in the graphite project, and used the money on a massage spa, residential rent, restaurants and payments to participants in previous investment offerings. Thus, he was also running a Ponzi scheme. He brought in $2 million on the Yuma project.

In 2015, he claimed that a gold project he was peddling was worth $375 billion. In 2011, he was slapped with a desist and refrain order from the State of California barring him from making any oral or written untrue statements in a securities offering.


https://media.sandiegoreader.com/news/docum...1/comp23890.pdf



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
flower
post Posted: May 11 2014, 10:47 AM
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In Reply To: mpl's post @ May 10 2014, 08:38 PM

Perhaps a better terminology would be what NOT to "Invest" in due to the company's state of affairs or viability.
Agreed, thought it unwise to start another thread heading, so used this one.

As for Trading, does it really matter in what state the particular stocks finance's are in ?. As most would be Scapling or agile Trades anyway. Most would be traded on the usual Hype, Pump N Dump types. EG: NEN comes to mind.
This is where we probably differ, IMO (taking the investing/trading public as a whole). Its doubtful if more than 20% of all investors/traders are of the scalping or/and ultra short term traders mindset and will use explorers as a medium in which they hope may graduate into a producer, probably trading that stock along the way over a number of years, plenty of examples on this site.

My overall point is that there is little point in even considering the bulk of ASX explorers currently since there is only a remote chance they will even exist next year, so why get yourself into a position where the inevitable outcome will be locking your capital into a non tradeable ASX shell company.

There are however several excellent examples of companies that have made all those transitions and today produce yet have exciting upside potential through their current and planned exploration programmes, surely it is those exploration companies that have to be a better "bet" than one of the possibly 503 who seem headed for financial disaster.



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Combining Fundamental comments with Fundamental charts.
 
mpl
post Posted: May 10 2014, 08:38 PM
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In Reply To: flower's post @ May 10 2014, 07:29 PM

Flower

Perhaps a better terminology would be what NOT to "Invest" in due to the company's state of affairs or viability.

As for Trading, does it really matter in what state the particular stocks finance's are in ?. As most would be Scapling or agile Trades anyway. Most would be traded on the usual Hype, Pump N Dump types. EG: NEN comes to mind.

Just a thought.

 

sentifi.com

Share Cafe Sentifi Top themes and market attention on:


flower
post Posted: May 10 2014, 07:29 PM
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Didn't know where else to post this implied warning gleaned from today's West Australian on probably what NOT to invest/trade in , especially following the 2014 Q1 reports which exposes many "bare bones"
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------.

503 out of the 684 ASX listed commodity explorers have a market cap of less than $A10 m, according to a Perth broker.

They have an average of $A1.5m in their bank accounts.

The bottom 300 have less than $600,000 in their bank accounts.

Confidence in the sector is already at multi year lows.

Only 181 ASX listed explorers therefore remain as "possibilities" with sufficient capital to keep going.(IMHO)



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Combining Fundamental comments with Fundamental charts.
 
colaiscute
post Posted: Apr 5 2007, 12:13 PM
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Good to see ShareScene.com mentioned as one of the reccomended internet websites to check out if you are starting trading!

I've always loved the style of the "for dummies" range. Really, theres nothing "low level" about it, it has real solid top level concepts. The key difference with these books is its set out so well.

I love the tips, and the definitions, and the examples. Its like being back at school (only less whispering and messing around). The book really takes you through the concepts nice and easy and makes sure you get the points. Very little "expert academic" language.

Share Investing for dummies covers practically every topic you could ask for. At 490 pages, its not a small book, but then again the font size is a bit bigger than normal, which is easy on the eyes.

My only negative comment is that it spends too much time on derivatives (I dont think people new to investing should even try to think about these) and not enough time on tax.


I just love this book.... Share Investing for Dummies and "Bullseye top trader thinking" are the perfect combination to give to any investor with 3 years or less experience, or anyone willing to make sure their education and life goals are on the mark.

On the cover it says "your plain english guide to success on the sharemarket" and this book is just that. Its great content (some things ive never read or heard of before, completely new) in a great format.

Well done James Dunn! Keep up the good work.





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colaiscute
 
BOOK CLUB
post Posted: Mar 16 2007, 11:30 AM
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This topic has been created for free and open discussion of "Share Investing For Dummies" (scroll down for book covers).

I invite any member to please feel free to post any comments or questions you have about this book. Even if you havn't read the book, feel welcome to discuss the general topic of the book.

WIN FREE BOOKS: Each week, members who make quality and interesting posts about this book or any other book in the ShareScene Book Club will be offered a free copy of a John Wiley investment book of their choice.

These book prizes are given to members who support and encourage intelligent discussion in the book club. Simply make a post in any of the Book Club topics to be in the running for a free book. So give it a shot!


 
BOOK CLUB
post Posted: Mar 16 2007, 11:29 AM
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FRONT COVER
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