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AUD, Australian Dollar Discussion
cooderman
post Posted: Jun 3 2020, 11:03 AM
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Please Administrator, How do I solve this problem.

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Upload failed. Please ask the administrator to ensure the uploads directory is writeable


Aussie GDP at 11.30 am..... may affect AUD pairs. Flying at the moment AUDUSD @ .696s

At the moment , "trend is your friend till....."


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early birds
post Posted: Jun 3 2020, 10:48 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jun 3 2020, 10:34 AM

thanks Mick

AUD keeps up and up as i type. there is another catch for the fast rise AUD , that will put the pressure on our market as a lot of due listed large stocks that have heavy weighing----likes of BHP RIO 4 major banks



 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jun 3 2020, 10:34 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jun 3 2020, 10:04 AM

It all depends on sentiment EB.
On the basis of fundamentals, you wouldn't be buying AUD.
The world heading to recession, so our commodities should be in much less demand, the other two winners Tourism and education smashed, RBA QE ing like every other CB
Still the sentiment is benign towards the AUD.
But then if you want the counterparty to the AUD, what is it?
The USD is crap, the Euro is fast heading that way, where do you go?
The UK pound? The Japanese Yen?
None of them are appealing to me, so I have no idea where to go.
Maybe the AUD will just keep climbing as people desperately seek a safe haven.
I guess we are relatively safe- no riots (yet), stable government (mostly), still exporting lots of iron ore copper etc.
We seem to have smashed that corona curve.
So I guess its onwards and upwards.
Mick



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nipper
post Posted: Jun 3 2020, 10:10 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jun 3 2020, 08:45 AM

AUD safe haven?
also Trade tilting our way?
And no Aussie tourists leaving for Nth Hemisphere to spend Kids Inheritances.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Jun 3 2020, 10:04 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jun 3 2020, 08:45 AM

i kinda think it's about time to short AUD at current level
you are focus on it more than i do. try to get your thoughts as how high this thing can go for this up leg?? unsure.gif



 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jun 3 2020, 08:45 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Apr 15 2020, 08:19 PM

AUD now touching 69 cents. From that low of 55 on 22 March , the AUD has risen 26% isn a few weeks.
Pity about the exporters, but suddenly we are in favour again.
Can you feel the love?
Australia has set a record not seen since early 1970's, we have now had a trade surplus for 12 consecutive months.
Gold down 10% from its highs in AUD, but still a reasonable price.
This is despite a pandemic, potential trade wars breaking out everywhere, America tearing itself apart internally, and China asserting its power unilaterally.
Hate to see what would happen if a real crisis broke out!
Mick



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cooderman
post Posted: Apr 16 2020, 11:59 AM
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Some meaningless information took out my trailing stop on short AUDUSD trade. Broker may have got me there.
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mullokintyre
post Posted: Apr 15 2020, 08:19 PM
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From that low of 55 cents on march 20 (barely three weeks ago). the AUD has climbed to a high oh 65.5, it has fallen 1.5% in a short time this evening.
It may well go down further as the US markets open.
it has no love - maybe the reports from the IMF that it will drop6.5% GDP this year was the trigger.
Means that gold is back above 2700 in AUD terms, something I rather like.

Mick



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mullokintyre
post Posted: Mar 20 2020, 07:17 AM
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I am betting that the AUD has stabilised for now.
Around the 57 handle, 2 cents up from yesterdays intraday low.
We know rates won't go any lower (Aus will never have negative rtes).
The FED has allowed the RBA (along with a few other CB's) to participate on USD swaps to keep the money flowing.
The question is where the hell is it flowing to?
Maybe the supermarkets.
Mick



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mullokintyre
post Posted: Mar 19 2020, 01:40 PM
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Not surprisingly, the RBA has cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
Equally not surprising is that it is unlikely to make any difference.
Before the announcement, AUD had slipped to .5538, the lowest level since 2002.
After the announcement, it "rebounded" to .5555.
The forex people must have been expecting an even bigger cut.
Mick



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