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Melbourne Cup Tips
nipper
post Posted: Nov 5 2019, 08:57 PM
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Craig Williams rides local stayer Vow And Declare to win the 2019 Melbourne Cup at Flemington Racecourse.
Paid $10 for the win. 🏇



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Nov 5 2019, 10:28 AM
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thanks but no thanks from me a poor sole. sadsmiley02.gif

guys !! there isn't a help F£$%^ ing all. thought at least i can get hint from you guys!! lmaosmiley.gif only joke
i know how hard to bet on a winner at cup.. only once a year for me. $1000 a max. fun day!!

good luck to anyone whom punted it as well.



 
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 5 2019, 09:13 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Nov 5 2019, 07:50 AM

The quants at Mac Bank have crunched the numbers (according to AFR) and come up with a surprise - "Surprise Baby" - they reckon it could outdo the more fancied offshore rivals.

QUOTE
"Horses at the top of the model are Surprise Baby, Vow and Declare, Finche, Cross Counter, Mer De Glace and Constantinople," the quants told clients on Monday afternoon.


Their past performance hasn't been 100% accurate, so don't bet the house on it.

QUOTE
Macquarie's team has run the model since 2007 and quickly made a name for itself with some early wins. However, by the team's own admission, it has had some lean years since.


The five-year-old gelding was bred by Rich Hill Stud in Matamata, the same stud that produced 2015 Melbourne Cup winner Prince of Penzance. Surprise Baby was purchased for just $5500 on an online auction website by two Australians and will jump from barrier 20 at odds of $14 for rural Victorian trainer Paul Preusker.

Lloyd Williams reckons his horse Latrobe has a good chance - but then again most owners think/hope that about their horse. Lloyd has had a couple of winners in the past.

New Zealand horses have a good track record at the Melbourne Cup. Another New Zealand horse is The Chosen One - with a name like that, sounds like a winner biggrin.gif

I'm not a punter, know nothing about race horses, so don't take anything I say as advice. I did win a Melbourne Cup sweep once though - the selection of the winning horse was quite scientific. I took all the names out of the hat draw - threw them along the floor - the one that landed out front I put $2 on (big spender) and it won. Probably as good as any method biggrin.gif

Happy punting



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 5 2019, 07:50 AM
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24 horses. What are the odds?



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
triage
post Posted: Nov 5 2019, 07:01 AM
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In Reply To: plastic's post @ Nov 5 2019, 05:21 AM

Yes, this. Some of my family are involved in the racing industry and they say that the Melbourne Cup is about the hardest race to pick as pretty much every horse in it, and its a big field, have been primed for this one race and pretty much every trainer and jockey are striving to win. None are there for a training gallop. So, pretty shirts or funny names or favourite numbers are the way to go apparently (fairly much how I pick my share investments come to think of it...).



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

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plastic
post Posted: Nov 5 2019, 05:21 AM
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Pick a horse with a name you like the sound of or a jockey whose shirt colours and patterns you like and you will have as good a chance as anyone else.



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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 

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early birds
post Posted: Nov 4 2019, 04:28 PM
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hi guys
any tips for tomorrow's cup??? once a year betting tongue.gif




 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 7 2017, 03:03 PM
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In Reply To: cooderman's post @ Nov 7 2017, 02:56 PM

yes indeed. (won't see this little attempt being paraded around town as giving the 'edge' to portfolio returns, on an outright or even risk/ reward matrix) ... ("We can lose money in ways you have never even thought of" doesn't really cut it?!



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
cooderman
post Posted: Nov 7 2017, 02:56 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Nov 7 2017, 09:58 AM

They may have to tweak their model for next year, or use a dartboard.


Attached File  Mc.JPG ( 92.78K ) Number of downloads: 9


 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 7 2017, 09:58 AM
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In Reply To: Pendragon's post @ Nov 7 2017, 09:32 AM

QUOTE
And after plugging results from 7200 races into Macquarie Quant Team's "Halpha" model, which is usually used for picking sharemarket winners, and considering factors like each horse's age, weight, odds and past five runs, the team came up with two sets of results.

"There are the tips for glory hunters - those punters who just want to win - and the tips for the value hunters. "For punters who are out for gold and glory, we use the unbiased odds calculated by our updated Halpha model to pick horses with the highest likelihood of winning. Our top three are Almandin, Marmelo and Red Cardinal," Macquarie's team told clients, with Humidor and Johannes Vermeer ranked as the best of the rest.

"However, for value investors out for a bargain, the most undervalued horse is Max Dynamite. "In addition, Almandin and Red Cardinal are also cheap, despite the short odds. These horses are more likely to win than their odds suggest."




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: Pendragon  
 
 


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