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Nickel, Discussion
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 29 2019, 03:05 PM
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QUOTE
NICKEL TO DRIFT
The nickel price has been the best performer so far this year with 59% gains, spiking after top producer Indonesia brought forward a ban on ore exports by two years to Jan. 1.

But prices have largely absorbed the bullish news and aside from possible short-term spikes due to speculative moves are unlikely to settle higher next year, analysts said.

“The impact of the ore ban won’t really be felt until the second half of next year, and the reason for that is the Indonesian government has given ore exporters four months’ notice of the ban,” said analyst Jim Lennon at Macquarie.

Indonesian exporters are due to ship out an additional 80,000-100,000 tonnes of contained nickel before the end of the year, keeping Chinese producers well supplied during the first half of 2020, Lennon added.

The LME cash price of nickel, mainly used to make stainless steel, is expected to average $16,500 a tonne next year, down 2% from the current price.

The market deficit is expected at 30,000 tonnes next year, a rise from 26,000 tonnes forecast for 2019, according the poll, but still minimal when compared to 144,000 tonnes in 2018, according to the International Nickel Study Group.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-metals-b...l-idUSKBN1X717V



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 29 2019, 01:14 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 25 2019, 09:53 AM

Previously it was reported (see prior post) the ban would come into effect on 1 January 2020 - now it's immediately

Indonesian nickel miners to stop ore exports immediately
Bernadette Christina, Wilda Asmarini
3 MIN READ

QUOTE
JAKARTA (Reuters) - Indonesia’s nickel miners agreed on Monday to stop nickel ore exports immediately, the country’s investment agency chief Bahlil Lahadalia said, after Jakarta last month brought forward a ban on shipments to January 2020 from 2022.


QUOTE
Expectations of the Indonesian ban have pushed nickel CMNI3 prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) up nearly 40% to around $17,000 a tonne now. In September, they hit a five-year high of $18,850 a tonne.


read more - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ts-im...f-idUSKBN1X7106



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 25 2019, 09:53 AM
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Indonesian nickel ore ban: who will fill the supply gap?

in Freight News 25/10/2019

QUOTE
On 30 August 2019 the Indonesian government announced that a ban on nickel ore exports would come into effect on 1 January 2020 – two years ahead of its planned date.

The news caused an immediate price spike. And while this retreated as the market took a more measured view of the nickel outlook, there is little doubt that the ban will have significant implications for NPI supply in the coming years.

Let’s look at some of the immediate questions resulting from the expedited ban.


QUOTE
What does this mean for Chinese NPI production?
Chinese NPI production in 2019 will not be disrupted by the ore ban – we maintain our forecast at 570 kt Ni. But while current ore stockpiles provide a temporary cushion, we do expect to see cutbacks in Chinese NPI production from H2 2020.

And as Chinese NPI production declines, Indonesian NPI is ramping up. We expect Indonesian NPI output to achieve 36% year on year growth in 2019, reaching 360 kt Ni.


read more - https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/indone...the-supply-gap/



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 20 2019, 01:30 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Oct 19 2019, 05:32 PM

If I recall rightly, there have been a couple of broker revised targets - on the downside - for IGO recently. This might explain them coming off the boil. Don't follow MCR that closely si not sure what's happening there.

This recent article appearing in FT might also explain - Can this year’s nickel rally keep going? a couple of extracts below

QUOTE
Traders point to large withdrawals of nickel from warehouses run by the London Metal Exchange. Stocks on the LME have fallen almost 50 per cent since August. The exchange is supposed to be a last resort for consumers of the metal when supplies are short.


QUOTE
Another reason for a fall: there is a surplus of stainless steel in China, which is reflected by a weaker premium for prices of nickel in China compared with global benchmarks, according to Helen Lau, an analyst at Argonaut Securities in Hong Kong.


read more - https://www.ft.com/content/12336556-ea9c-11...f4-d00e5018f061



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Oct 19 2019, 05:32 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 19 2019, 12:18 PM

And yet both IGO and MCR my two nickel stocks have come off the boil; in recent times.
Obviously local players have not read the report by Tim Serjeant.
Mick



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blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 19 2019, 12:18 PM
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There’s more to nickel than just batteries
QUOTE
Tim Serjeant, Portfolio Manager/Analyst, Eley Griffiths Group

The supply side equation for Nickel as it stands today presents a bullish outlook.

Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) is ~950kt of the ~2.35Mt nickel market, so call it 40% of total supply. It has been a feature of the market since 2007 (all the incremental supply) where China has featured prominently, tapping cheaper ore sources, power and capital intensity advantages to drive down the cost of production for stainless steel. Forgive the history lesson, but the context is important.


read more - https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/recha...y-minerals-boom



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 

sentifi.com

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nipper
post Posted: Oct 19 2019, 09:53 AM
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Nickel mining was in the doldrums for years but it rebounded in early September, to a five-year high above $US18,000 per metric ton. Its value has jumped by 69 per cent since the start of the year, when it was trading at $10,604.

"At the moment, about 3 per cent of global nickel goes into electric vehicle batteries," said James Stewart, Ausbil Global Resources Fund's portfolio manager. "We expect that to increase to 10 per cent of the nickel market by 2022 and double again to 2025." "Nickel is a very important commodity to EVs [electric vehicles] and the battery thematic."

Eighty percent of the world's nickel is used to make stainless steel for pipes and household items like fridges. But electric battery makers are increasing the use of the metal ...... l

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-19/n...rt-ban/11616188



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 9 2019, 10:27 AM
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China’s Tsingshan helped drive record drop in nickel inventories
Bloomberg News | October 8, 2019
extract
QUOTE
China’s Tsingshan Holding Group Co. was one of the main forces behind a record drawdown in London Metal Exchange nickel inventories last week, according to people familiar with the matter.

The company, the world’s biggest stainless steelmaker, bought the nickel to secure supplies ahead of a looming ban on raw nickel ore exports from Indonesia, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the deals are private.

While the LME’s warehouse network is designed as a last-resort source for exactly this type of supply crisis, the scale of buying could raise concerns about a potential shortfall if the drawdowns continue. Some traders and consumers have been scrambling to pick up metal since early September, when Indonesia confirmed plans to bring forward its ban. But the move last week was surprisingly sharp — the nearly 25,000 tons that left the warehouses was the biggest decline in the four-decade history of the nickel contract.

read more - https://www.mining.com/web/chinas-tsingshan...el-inventories/
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 2 2019, 10:51 PM
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The spike in the London benchmark three-month price to $18,470 a tonne came with a cloud hanging over supplies out of Indonesia and the future of the Chinese-owned Ramu nickel plant in Papua New Guinea after a big waste spill.

ASX-listed nickel stocks rose sharply on Monday, with Western Areas Limited up more than 15 per cent to $2.86, Independence Group up almost 9 per cent to $5.92, Poseidon up 13 per cent to 4.3¢ and junior explorer St George Mining up almost 18 per cent to 16.5¢ after announcing a new nickel sulphide discovery at its flagship Mt Alexander project.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 2 2019, 11:07 AM
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In Reply To: bg99's post @ Sep 2 2019, 10:50 AM

PNG has had a long history of doing nothing regarding Ramu - https://ramumine.wordpress.com/2012/11/08/p...ntal-time-bomb/



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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