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Z1P, ZIP CO LIMITED
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 8 2019, 11:29 AM
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Posts: 6,570
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Nov 7 2019, 07:02 PM

Short sales yesterday -
QUOTE
Thu 7th Nov, 2019 1,391,416 352,933,529 0.39% 7.42%


https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=z1p

SP down 2.74% @ $3.91

FWIW - a couple of opinion pieces from Morgans and RFM

Morgans says Zip had to pay up for Amazon deal
extract
QUOTE
"Zip has had to pay up for market access with Amazon receiving around 15 million warrants," said analyst Richard Coles.

"While 75 per cent of the warrants are subject to vesting conditions, the 7-year exercise period is long and could see significant upside pass to Amazon.

Zip’s Amazon deal is also not exclusive, although the strategic alignment between partners hopefully provides Zip some protection."

The broker did suggest the deal was an overall positive for the stock however, saying Amazon was a strong strategic partner for Zip.

"While Amazon has arguably had a slower than expected start in Australia, we understand it did generate around $290 million of sales domestically in 2018," said Mr Coles.

"Given Amazon’s huge scale, its differentiated offering and its success growing outside the US, it’s hard not to see Amazon gaining further traction in Australia over time."

The broker said, while Zip was performing well, its current valuation seemed fair.

"Zip’s management continues to execute well. However, with Zip having re-rated strongly this year we feel its current valuation is fair pending evidence of traction in its offshore growth strategy," said Mr Coles.


extract from Regal Funds Management Phil Kings recent article on Livewire

QUOTE
Why we still like Appen and Zip
"We still own Appen, because we think the valuation's very attractive. We're looking forward a few years, and I think that's fine. If a company has got a very strong market position, I feel comfortable looking forward a few years to see where that stock will be in a couple of years. There are other similar growth stocks out there as well. I think one reason that we've been very successful this year is that we've focused very heavily on small growth stocks.

We're very much in a low interest rate, low growth environment. If we can identify earnings growth, organic earnings growth before the market discovers it, then not only will we benefit from that EPS growth, but we'll get a strong rerating in that stock as well.

We've had a number of stocks double or triple this year as the market discovers the EPS growth and rerates them. I think a lot of stocks, as I said earlier, will go up heavily as they enter the index as well. That's something we're very focused on, stocks before they get too big or big enough to enter the index.

Well, investment is all about making forecasts. Making forecasts always involves a little bit of uncertainty, but I feel a lot more confident forecasting Appen's future cash flows than many cyclical stocks in Australia. I think stocks that rely on the economy for earnings growth can disappoint, and I think there have probably been more value traps in Australia over the last six months than I've seen in a long time.

Whereas something like Appen, if we do the research, explore the competitive landscape, if we talk to suppliers, if we talk to customers, we talk to management, we get very, very comfortable. They're in a very strong spot, and their growth is almost accelerating at the moment. They've established themselves as the go-to for their customers, and the main criticism they used to get was that they were too reliant on one or two customers. They've very much diversified their customer base.

A few years ago, they took out one of their large competitors, and I think they've very much established themselves as the go-to for their machine learning speciality, as well as speech recognition.
When we bought Zip it was on a valuation that was about 10% the size of Afterpay. As I've said, the first step in our process is valuation. We just thought all the hype was on Afterpay, and we thought people hadn't really discovered Zip.

We made a large investment in Zip and that's been very, very successful for us. That stock I think is up two or three times since we invested. We think in the buy now pay later space there'll probably be two or three winners. I think the merchants have an incentive to have more than just Afterpay on offer.

Just like most merchants accept two or three different credit cards, I think most merchants will accept two or three different buy now pay later providers. We think Afterpay and Zip will be certainly the two winners. We just prefer Zip on the valuation".
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/phil-...were-in-the-gfc




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 7 2019, 07:02 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Nov 7 2019, 04:28 PM

QUOTE
Seeing it was nearly $6 a month ago, the news "SP up 16.28% @ $4.00" is less impressive.


I think if you take into consideration my whole quote - " SP up 16.28% @ $4.00 currently. Volume = 14.6 mil. Total short positions as at 31/10/19 = 2.22%. Shorts covering?" - and the two previous posts highlighting the increased short positions, the UBS sell recommendation,(not just Z1P but also APT and others in the sector) - the reference to "shorts covering" might explain the SP rising 16.28%. Shorts were scrambling to cover on todays news (IMHO) and that's why the surge. I wasn't trying to infer the rise was impressive - I understood reasons the behind the rise.

If you look at the previous post - short positions as at 11/10/19 = 0.90%
short positions as at 31/10/19 = 2.22%
short positions as at 01/11/19 = 2.29%

The ASIC data is delayed by 4 days so short positions as of today could have been even higher. No doubt a number of those positions were closed today on the positive news, pushing the SP much higher than would have been the case under normal circumstances.

Cheers



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 7 2019, 04:28 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Nov 7 2019, 11:57 AM

Seeing it was nearly $6 a month ago, the news
QUOTE
SP up 16.28% @ $4.00
is less impressive.

Thx for the charts; easy reminder of preceding performance (or lack thereof)



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 7 2019, 11:57 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 17 2019, 12:53 PM

SP up 16.28% @ $4.00 currently. Volume = 14.6 mil. Total short positions as at 31/10/19 = 2.22%. Shorts covering? https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=z1p

Zip strikes strategic agreement with Amazon Australia

QUOTE
Zip Co Limited (‘Zip’) is pleased to announce today that it has entered into a strategic
agreement with Amazon Commercial Services Pty Limited (“Amazon”).
The agreement:

 Sees Zip available as a payment option for customers shopping on Amazon.com.au
 Sees Zip as Amazon’s first Australian instalment payment option
Zip CEO and Managing Director, Larry Diamond said:
“We are thrilled to have secured this strategic agreement with Amazon Australia,
providing customers with a more flexible way to pay. This agreement puts Zip
firmly on the main stage by allowing customers shopping on Amazon.com.au to
use Zip to pay at their pace. The agreement delivers a fantastic experience for
customers who are looking to own the way they pay.”

The relationship with Amazon Australia continues to deliver on Zip’s strategic vision of
providing customers with convenience and choice in how they choose to pay for
everyday products, whilst also expanding the network of acceptance for Zip’s 1.5 million
digital customers.

In connection with the strategic agreement, Zip will issue to an affiliate of Amazon
warrants to acquire up to 14,615,000 ordinary shares (“Warrants”). The exercise price for
each Warrant is equal to the volume weighted average closing price of Zip’s shares on the
ASX for the 20 trading days prior to October 31, 2019 ($4.70).

A portion of the Warrants (25%, or 3,653,750 ordinary shares) will vest concurrently with
Zip’s entry into the strategic agreement, and the remainder of the Warrants will be subject
to vesting milestones based on processed volumes. The Warrants may be exercised any
time until 7 years after the issue date (subject to the applicable vesting criteria being
met), except that the unvested Warrants are subject to early expiration in certain
circumstances, including in the event that the applicable vesting milestones are not met
by specified dates.

It is anticipated that Zip will be live on Amazon.com.au on 7 November 2019.

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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 17 2019, 12:53 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 16 2019, 11:42 AM

Updated chart. Sell down following UBS sell recommendation yesterday continues. SP currently $4.68 - below UBS target of $4.80

Gross short sales up yesterday - >> https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=z1p Total short positions as at 11/10/19 = 0.90%
Wed 16th Oct, 2019 915,674 352,933,529 0.25% 6,681,965 13.70%
Tue 15th Oct, 2019 318,199 352,933,529 0.09% 6,283,068 5.06%
Mon 14th Oct, 2019 478,120 352,933,529 0.13% 6,850,751 6.98%
Fri 11th Oct, 2019 369,857 352,933,529 0.10% 8,044,858 4.60%
Thu 10th Oct, 2019 265,934 352,933,529 0.07% 4,173,697 6.37%
Wed 9th Oct, 2019 678,434 352,933,529 0.19% 6,551,650 10.36%
Tue 8th Oct, 2019 424,827 352,933,529 0.12% 4,392,486 9.67%
Mon 7th Oct, 2019 153,002 352,933,529 0.04% 2,536,266 6.03%
Fri 4th Oct, 2019 399,058 352,933,529 0.11% 3,348,995 11.92%
Thu 3rd Oct, 2019 303,939 352,933,529 0.08% 3,468,729 8.76%
Wed 2nd Oct, 2019 273,299 352,137,991 0.07% 3,535,327 7.73%
Tue 1st Oct, 2019 432,015 352,137,991 0.12% 5,408,357 7.99%
Mon 30th Sep, 2019 385,230 352,137,991 0.10% 7,609,417 5.06%
Fri 27th Sep, 2019 241,324 352,137,991 0.06% 4,938,520 4.89%
Thu 26th Sep, 2019 416,867 352,137,991 0.11% 4,749,914 8.78%
Wed 25th Sep, 2019 607,704 352,137,991 0.17% 3,045,960 19.95%
Tue 24th Sep, 2019 137,412 352,137,991 0.03% 2,141,604 6.42%
Mon 23rd Sep, 2019 185,926 352,137,991 0.05% 1,801,786 10.32%
Fri 20th Sep, 2019 2,300,196 352,137,991 0.65% 12,644,021 18.19%
Thu 19th Sep, 2019 196,266 352,137,991 0.05% 1,853,757 10.59%[/quote]
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 16 2019, 11:42 AM
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Posts: 6,570
Thanks: 2260


In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 8 2019, 11:58 AM

UBS initiates Afterpay Touch with 'sell'
By Lucy Battersby
QUOTE
UBS analysts have started covering the buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) sector with a price target of just $17.25 for Afterpay Touch, which is half today's price of $34.59.They also have a 'sell' recommendation on Zip with a $4.80 price target, it is trading 4.2 per cent lower at $5.20.

"To justify Afterpay's share price, we estimate gross merchandise value needs to grow to about $175 billion by 2029-30,'' the analysts note.

"This could require about 47 million customers, or a combined 18 per cent/12.5 per cent/12.5 per cent of the Australia/US/UK adult populations collectively spending about $3,800 per year (more than double ANZ per customer spend in 2018-19). Less growth is priced in for Zip than for Afterpay, which we believe is fair given Zip's smaller customer base and underlying sales today.''

The UBS team, led by Tom Beadle and Jonathan Mott, argue the BNPL sector is at risk of further regulation with 64 per cent of users agreeing it is a credit service. This means the sector is at risk of further regulation, which is not being priced into share prices.

UBS analysis found BNPL drives sales, but users tend to be younger, wealthier and employed, but more indebted.

"In our view, this could suggest either 1) that BNPL services are filtering out potential customers who are on lower incomes or not in full time employment of 2) if existing consumers are early adopters, credit quality could fall if BNPL becomes more mass-market,'' the analysts write.

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=z1p
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 

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blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 8 2019, 11:58 AM
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Posts: 6,570
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Sep 27 2019, 03:40 PM

Updated chart. Now broken through $5.00 mark - currently $5.04
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 27 2019, 03:40 PM
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Posts: 6,570
Thanks: 2260


In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 22 2019, 12:27 PM

Updated chart - SP broke through $4.00 mark recently - currently $4.29
Total short position @ 20/9/19 = 0.96%
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=z1p
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 15 2019, 04:45 PM
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and there there is Z1P ............... (note single digit inserted) (not to be confused with ZIP ZipTel)
QUOTE
Zip Co Limited (Z1P, formerly Zipmoney Ltd) operates in financial products and payment solutions to consumers, and providing a variety of integrated solutions to small, medium and enterprise merchants across numerous industries, both online and in-store. Company operates in Australia and New Zealand
this share seems to be chuffing along quite nicely, up from $1 to $3.50 in a year
Their statement "Revenue is not dependent on customers falling in arrears" probably a well-aimed jibe at some of the others in this space, not mentioning AfterPay

(Seems this might be a new thread, while blacksheep has already had a hearty line of posts up and running, under Z1P, ZIP CO LIMITED )



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 22 2019, 12:27 PM
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Posts: 6,570
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 20 2019, 11:47 AM

Updated chart - following this mornings announcement

QUOTE
22 August 2019
Moving up, scaling up and going global.
Zip Co Limited (ASX : Z1P) (“Zip” or “Company”), a leading player in the digital retail finance
and payments industry, today announced its full year results for the year ended 30 June
2019.
FY19 HIGHLIGHTS
 Revenue of $84.2 million, up 138%. Annualising at over $100m.
 Transaction volume of $1,128.5 million, up 108%.
 Loan book (receivables) of $682.6 million, up 115%.
 More than 1.3 million customers and 16,000 partners on the platform.
 Net bad debt write-off of 1.63%, well below industry standards.
 Achieved cashflow breakeven for the last 6 quarters.
 Reported cash EBTDA of $9.2 million in FY19, compared to a loss of $8.8 million in
FY18.
 Raised $54.4m, net of costs, in an oversubscribed capital raise.
 Launched the Zip App that has transformed the customer experience.
 Multiple billion-dollar partners joined the Zip platform.
 Announced the acquisition of global technology platform PartPay.

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=z1p
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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