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CGC, COSTA GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 7 2019, 07:06 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Nov 7 2019, 12:36 PM

CGC can't seem to take a trick lately

QUOTE
7 th November 2019
RIVERLAND (SOUTH AUSTRALIA) REGION HAILSTORM EVENT

Costa Group Holdings Limited (Costa; ASX: CGC), Australia’s leading grower, packer and marketer of
fresh fruit and vegetables today provides the following update on the hailstorm event that occurred
in the Riverland (South Australia) region in the late afternoon of 5th November 2019
.

Costa subsequently undertook significant work to form a preliminary assessment of any impact on our
farms. Given the preliminary nature of this assessment, the fact that a potential impact may or may
not eventuate and that Costa’s overall portfolio performance may counterbalance any adverse
impact, it would ordinarily be too early to announce any potential impact from such an event.
However, as the recently announced pro-rata entitlement offer is currently in progress, we believe
that more fulsome disclosure of indicative information is appropriate at this stage.

Three of Costa’s seven citrus farms have been affected by the hail storm – Yandilla, Kangara and
Amaroo. These farms have a total of circa 1,700 hectares and of this, circa two thirds of these farms
sustained little or no impact.

The trees on those parts of the farms affected have not sustained any structural damage, with the
only damage being on the early stage fruitlets that are naturally forming on the trees at this time of
year.

With the 2019 harvest reaching its conclusion, there will be no financial impact for the remainder of
CY19. On the basis of there being no significant tree damage, it is not expected that there will be any
impact in CY21.

It is not expected that there will be any impact on yield in CY20, however there may be some impact
on the quality of some of the crops which, if it eventuates, may have an impact on pricing in CY20.
A natural part of the citrus growing process involves the falling of some fruitlets, which occurs over
the early summer period. We anticipate that more of the fruitlets that fall this season will be the
damaged fruitlets, with a higher proportion of the undamaged fruitlets remaining on the trees.
However, this will not be known until the normal conclusion of this cycle in late CY19. Therefore, it is
anticipated that by early in the new year we will be able to conduct a more thorough assessment of
any impact on CY20 earnings.

Based on current information available to us, if the quality of some of the crops is impacted, we
estimate that there may be an EBITDA-SL impact of between $4m-$6m and a corresponding NPAT-SL
impact of between $3m-$4m in CY20. However, given the preliminary nature of this assessment and
it being too early to predict how other parts of Costa’s portfolio will perform in CY20, it is too early to
determine whether any impact from this event will result in a change to the recently announced CY20
forecast.





--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 7 2019, 12:36 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 29 2019, 05:40 PM

Not sure if this is a Shortman "glitch" but they are showing the top shorted stock is CGC with 57.77% shorted as at 1/11/19

Total short positions as at 23/10/19 = 8.61%

5 out of the last 6 trading days recorded notable short alerts - but not enough to go up that dramatically.
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=CGC

QUOTE
Wed 6th Nov, 2019 1,786,853 320,629,760 0.55% 46.17%
Tue 5th Nov, 2019 1,095,971 320,629,760 0.34% 43.51%
Mon 4th Nov, 2019 1,965,390 320,629,760 0.61% 62.69%
Fri 1st Nov, 2019 3,669,680 320,629,760 1.14% 71.37%
Thu 31st Oct, 2019 1,783,768 320,629,760 0.55% 16.19%
Wed 30th Oct, 2019 3,803,625 320,629,760 1.18% 26.99%


5 year chart
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 29 2019, 05:40 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 29 2019, 02:13 PM

UBS cleans up Costa raising with 8.7m shares auction

QUOTE
Costa Group's institutional shareholders have left about one-fifth of offered shares on the table in the company's heavily discounted equity raising.

Stockbroker UBS launched an auction for 8.7 million Costa shares left over from the institutional portion of the rights issue after market on Tuesday, and was seeking bids by 6pm for funds from Australia and the Asia Pacific.


QUOTE
UBS also warned that the 8.7 million number was subject to change with its "reconciliation" process ongoing

read more - https://www.afr.com/street-talk/ubs-cleans-...20191029-p535h6



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 29 2019, 02:13 PM
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Posts: 6,570
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Oct 28 2019, 05:58 PM

Back in November 2017 the Costa family sold down 17.1 mil shares @ $6.55

In April this year Brokers visited the CGA Chinese berry farms and declared "confidence has been reinvigorated" and new targets set.

October 2019 a CR at a 36.4% discount to the last traded price. One of the brokers who was "reinvigorated" (UBS) rattled the tin obo CGC. Proceeds from the CR will "strengthen CGC's balance sheet", which translated probably means "pay down it's debt". As at 30/6/19 gross debt was $354.8 m.

Sadly for shareholders the SP is going to tumble once trading resumes. Will UBS come out with an upbeat target? Macquarie has downgraded, with a reduced target $2.51 from $3.40.

Total short positions as at 23/10/19 = 8.61% - https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=cgc

QUOTE
Key Highlights
• Previously foreshadowed challenges facing the company have continued to crystallise.
In addition, prolonged extreme dry and hot conditions are now impacting fruit sizing
and yield in avocados, blueberries and the late season citrus crop.

• CY19 guidance is reduced to EBITDA-SL of approximately $98 million and NPAT-SL of
approximately $28 million, recognising the challenges of forecasting in the current
environment.

• The Costa business model and strategy remain robust in order to deliver strong
shareholder returns in the medium to long term.

• At this point in time based on current information, Costa expects CY20 EBITDA-SL to
be approximately $150 million and NPAT-SL to be approximately in line with CY18 NPATSL (which was $56.6 million) prior to taking into account the impact of the equity
raising.

• Concern over water security issues has led to a decision to pause the 10-hectare
glasshouse expansion at Guyra.

• Costa has invested over $400 million in capex and M&A since its IPO in five expansion
programs without any equity injection.

• Costa today announces that it is raising approximately $176 million through a fully
underwritten1 accelerated renounceable pro-rata entitlement offer with retail rights
trading ("Entitlement Offer").

• The equity raising will strengthen Costa's balance sheet and ensure that Costa has an
appropriate capital structure in place to support the continuation of the company's
growth strategy in light of recent trading and market conditions, and the prolonged
impact of drought conditions.




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 28 2019, 05:58 PM
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QUOTE
Costa announced that it would raise $176 million through a fully underwritten renounceable pro-rata entitlement offer to repay debt and give it extra capacity to withstand the impact of prolonged drought conditions.

The 1-for-4 raising is being done at a price of $2.20 per share. Costa has been in a trading halt on the ASX for a week. The stock last traded at $3.46.

Costa shares were fetching $5.38 in late May this year.

The company cut its profit guidance for calendar 2019 for net profit after tax to around $28 million, and earnings before interest,tax, depreciation and amortisation to $98 million. Both of those forecasts are prior to the impact of the SGARA agricultural accounting standard.

Mr Debney described calendar year 2019 as a ''challenging and disappointing year'' for the company because of a combination of cyclical, one-off and structural issues.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 21 2019, 02:38 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Sep 3 2019, 10:37 AM

In a trading halt pending announcement in respect of its trading outlook.

Another earnings hit??? Wouldn't think they would go into a TH if it's good news

Short positions as at 15/10/19 = 9.09%. Friday saw another notable short sales alert - the 3rd this month

QUOTE
Fri 18th Oct, 2019 2,786,027 320,629,760 0.86% 5,272,892 52.84%


SP was up slightly before the TH (0.29%) @ $3.46
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 

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blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 3 2019, 10:37 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 27 2019, 12:22 PM

It's Costa v Costa in juicy berry and citrus dispute
QUOTE
A dispute over rental income has pitted the country's largest fruit and vegetable grower, Costa Group, against its landlord, the Costa family's recently spun off berry and citrus farms owner, the Vitalharvest Freehold Trust.


QUOTE
News of the dispute emerged as the trust reported a 31 per cent fall in funds from operations to $11.4 million on a pro-forma basis and a 20 per cent drop in rental revenue.

read more - https://www.afr.com/property/commercial/it-...20190902-p52n0r
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 27 2019, 12:22 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 23 2019, 12:27 PM

Updated chart . SP currently $2.98/share. Total short positions as at 20/8/19 = 7.67%. 2x notable short alerts in last 2 trading days

QUOTE
Mon 26th Aug, 2019 4,313,517 320,554,262 1.34% 11,707,671 36.84%
Fri 23rd Aug, 2019 5,548,568 320,554,262 1.73% 18,633,613 29.78%

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=CGC

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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 23 2019, 07:22 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 23 2019, 12:27 PM

QUOTE
first-half result marred by setbacks across its fruit and vegetable operations. The grower increased its revenue by 11.8 per cent to $573 million during the period but an adverse Moroccan blueberry season, low mushroom demand, poor raspberry quality, citrus water costs and fruit fly culminated in a difficult first half.
that's their entire product range, isn't it?
I noticed everything CGC offers was discounted at the local, today!


QUOTE
Costa’s statutory profit for the six months to June 30 edged 1.0 per cent higher to $41.1m but profit before factoring in self-generating and live assets fell by $7.2m, or 14 per cent, to $40.9m. Earnings before self-generating and live assets and leasing was 8.4 per cent lower at $82.4m.
"SG&L"; That's a new one. Too much drilling down.



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 23 2019, 12:37 PM
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Posts: 6,308
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 23 2019, 12:27 PM

Three strikes and out. Over-promise and under-deliver ....or just misread the market (and capital needs)?



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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