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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 16 2019, 08:08 PM
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How big a risk is a global economic recession?

Recently, hopes of a fledgling growth turnaround were doused by data showing China’s factory output growth slowing in October and Japan’s economy grinding to a standstill in Q3. And Germany only narrowly avoided a recession in that period.

Cue “flash” PMIs due on Nov. 22 from Japan and the euro area; numbers widely regarded as a forward-looking indicator of economic health.

October PMIs pointed to some stabilization, raising expectations that hefty central bank easing had helped the global economy to bottom out.

On the flip side, Sino-U.S. trade uncertainty drags on, making it harder to call a turnaround in the data. No wonder then, that after weeks of heavy selling, government bond yields are heading down again.

Yet European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Thursday risks of a European recession were “very low”. The PMIs might bear that out — or not.


Global manufacturing PMIs - here https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-m...s-idUSKBN1XP1KT



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 14 2019, 09:06 PM
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ov 14, 2019 09:39 AMCX DAILY
CX Daily: China's Bank Regulators Try to Defuse Bank Run Jitters
QUOTE
]Financial risk /[/b]

Top bank regulators move to defuse jitters after two bank runs

Officials of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) have addressed bank runs involving Yingkou Coastal Bank in northeastern Liaoning province and Yichuan Rural Bank in Luoyang, Henan province, in recent weeks, pledging to contain liquidity risks among the country’s thousands of smaller banks.

The regulators attributed the runs to false online rumors and sought to restore confidence in the lenders. The world’s largest banking system has been rattled this year not only by those two incidents but also by earlier crises at three other banks. China has about 4,500 banks, most of which are small and medium-sized institutions.

The remarks come amid reports that China’s local governments are helping bail out troubled banks by injecting capital into small lenders across the country, as part of an expanding campaign to restore confidence in the banking system.

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2019-11-14/cx-...-101483162.html



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 8 2019, 05:27 PM
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"Just anecdotally, I was in the IMF meetings in Washington a couple of weeks ago and every single meeting that I had, we talked about ESG. I know that’s anecdotal, but it’s a really booming area.”
- Douglas L. Peterson, CEO, S&P Global

“Something to keep an eye on is ESG this has become a factor, which is very important in Europe in investors’ minds. It is increasingly becoming more pervasive in the U.S., obviously, we’re seeing it in our asset management business, and you can see the investments we’ve made there. I think increasingly, this is becoming a topic for boardroom discussions.”
- Kenneth Jacobs, CEO, Lazard

*Environmental, Social and Governance



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: rog  
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 6 2019, 09:44 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Nov 6 2019, 09:32 AM

Yes, we need inflation.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Nov 6 2019, 09:32 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Nov 6 2019, 09:04 AM

And speaking of High debt, the US debt has now hit 23 trillion.


from The Hill

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The federal government's outstanding public debt has surpassed $23 trillion for the first time in history, according to data from the Treasury Department released on Friday.

Growing budget deficits have added to the nation's debt at a speedy rate since President Trump took office. The debt has grown some 16 percent since Trump's inauguration, when it stood at $19.9 trillion. It passed $22 trillion for the first time just 10 months ago.
Of the $23 trillion figure, just under $17 trillion was in the category of debt held by the public, which is a more useful gauge of the debt the government has to pay down, and the number typically used in calculating the nation's debt burden. The other $6 trillion comes from loans within government bodies.

Still, the $23 trillion figure marks a milestone.

“Reaching $23 trillion in debt on Halloween is a scary milestone for our economy and the next generation, but Washington shows no fear," said Michael A. Peterson, CEO of the fiscally conservative Peter G. Peterson Foundation.

"Piling on debt like this is especially unwise and unnecessary in a strong economy," he added.

High levels of debt can push up borrowing costs and interest rates, "crowd out" private borrowing and weigh down budgets. In the 2019 fiscal year, for example, the government had to devote $376 billion just to pay the interest on the debt, equivalent to nearly half the defense budget, and more than the amount spent on the combined costs of education, agriculture, transportation and housing.

The deficit for 2019 came in just under $1 trillion, at $984 billion, and is only expected to grow in coming years.

While the main drivers of spending are mandatory programs such as Social Security, Medicare and anti-poverty programs, major legislation has grown the deficit considerably since Trump came to office.

The 2017 GOP tax law was estimated to cost $1.9 trillion over a decade, while bipartisan deals to boost defense and domestic spending ramped up outlays each year.


At around $185,000 for each person in the US, it sorta makes you wonder why so many people are clamouring to get into the USA, legally or otherwise.

Don't they know what they are getting themselves into??
On the bright side, I guess if they increase the number of people, the debt per person reduces.


Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 6 2019, 09:04 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Nov 6 2019, 08:02 AM

QUOTE
Having outsourced those low paid jobs to Asia, the service industry is now king.
correct.

... with high debt levels, employment / participation is a big one to watch



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 

sentifi.com

Share Cafe Sentifi Top themes and market attention on:


mullokintyre
post Posted: Nov 6 2019, 08:02 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Nov 2 2019, 07:35 AM

So, last night further confirmation that the US death notice is a little premature.


QUOTE
The Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to a reading of 54.7% in October, up from September’s 52.6%. The 2.1 percentage-point advance surprised the markets, with consensus expectations calling for the index to come in at 53.5%.


Readings above 50 are seen as a sign of economic growth – the farther an indicator is above or below 50, the greater or smaller the rate of change.

“This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a faster rate,” the report said. “The non-manufacturing sector had an uptick in growth after reflecting a pullback in September. The respondents continue to be concerned about tariffs, labor resources and the geopolitical climate.”

The details of the ISM Non-Manufacturing report revealed that the new orders sub-index rose to 60.3% from July’s 54.1%.

Looking at other components, business activity sub-index increased to 55.6% from 53.7% registered in September. The employment index rose to 53.7% from September’s reading of 50.4%. Economists keep a close eye on the latter number as a gauge into the employment situation in the country.

Inflation pressures rose for the 29th consecutive month, with the price index coming in at 56.6% in October.

In an immediate reaction to the latest ISM Non-Manufacturing index, gold prices dropped to new daily lows with December Comex gold futures last trading at $1,491.00, down 1.33% on the day.

Prior to the release, gold prices were already down more than 1% on the day on renewed risk-on sentiment triggered by positive U.S.-China trade headlines and the rallying U.S. stock market.

The service sector’s advance in October is consistent with “modest growth,” said CIBC Capital Markets senior economist Andrew Grantham.

“The details showed most of the major sub-indices improving, including business activity, new orders and employment. As such, the report appears to confirm what Friday's payrolls figures suggested, namely that the services side of the U.S. economy is still in good shape, which will negate the need for further interest rate reductions,” Grantham wrote.


Full article Here.

The US has become like OZ, a giant service industry where manufacturing has become such a small part of the economy, its relevance becomes less important.
Having outsourced those boring low paid manufacturing jobs to Asia, the service industry is now king.

Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.

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mullokintyre
post Posted: Nov 2 2019, 07:35 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Oct 31 2019, 08:43 AM

So, we have the feds pumping money into the repo market to shore up the banks, they have also added another rate cut, the PMI index is still falling, the dems are trying to impeach the president, the same president who started a trade war with the its biggest trading partner, climate change will destroy America within 12 years (at least according to three climate experts in AOC., Greta, and Jane Fonda). You would think that people would be streaming out of the country for a safe haven rather than more and more trying to get in. The joint is doomed.
But if you can believe the the BLS Jobs report, the 128,000 jobs added in October, while not a fantastic number in its own right, it beat all expectations. And this despite the strike at GM. And to top it off, the previous August number was revised upwards from 168,000 to 219,000 and Septembers from 136,000 to 180,000. And in a hit to the white male brigade, Women Show Gains in Male-Dominated Sectors Over Last Year
Between October 2018 and October 2019, women gained employment in the mining and logging industry by 1% as well as other sectors. And finally, unemployment for black men drops to its lowest level since 1972.
The median for spells of unemployment has fallen from a high of 25 weeks after the GFC to around 9 weeks, back to levels last seen in 2007.

Perhaps the end is not so nigh after all.

All from the WSJ

Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Nov 1 2019, 05:04 PM
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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-macquari..._source=twitter


November 1, 2019 / 8:59 AM / Updated an hour ago
Australia's Macquarie posts record first-half on trading, asset management gains




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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
early birds
post Posted: Oct 31 2019, 08:43 AM
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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/30/fed-decisio...-rates-cut.html

Fed cut rate again!! weirdsmiley.gif
and SPX had turn around after market people get they wanted ......record high ...for SPX



 
 


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