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CUV, CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED
Crembo
post Posted: Today, 03:51 PM
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Anyone know how dividends work for borrowed and shorted shares?

 
Billy Boots
post Posted: Today, 02:34 PM
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In Reply To: macgyver's post @ Today, 11:52 AM

I could have told you many moons ago Mac, that it has been a trap many many times.Remember these asshole Shorters are " buying " lots and lots of shares , build the price up ......then flog them off at a good profit. We longs are the bloody idiots. grrr.gif

 
polyphemus
post Posted: Today, 01:54 PM
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In Reply To: johnnytech's post @ Today, 01:31 PM

I think we were all wrong about the tenacity of the short commitment.
They sold another 77,044 yesterday.
They have been able to use the psychology to churn some of it daily and keep prices in their favour. It is an illiquid stock with a conservative restricted management strategy (from a day to day perspective) so that should be fairly easy for a whale to control emotion.
I think the problem for shorters is that there is also a large commitment from longer holders not to panic.
We are quite use to 30% swings over short to mid term.
I definitely have a buy point each time the price swings under a specific point. Not the current range - I think it should be circa $33 at the moment.

 
johnnytech
post Posted: Today, 01:31 PM
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I calculate since FDA approval, shorters have spent over 33 million USD shorting CUV. That is a massive position increase. Several days in the road now it's a green uptick on shorters shorting more. But yet CUV's got more green upticks than red downticks in the last week. If there's ever a time to be worried for the shorters it's got to be now. I admit I still have this expectation that February is going to be a bounce up so it's a self-serving bias to read data that supports that expectation.

Looking at all the other top 100 shorted stocks and trying to glean insight, I get the impression that there is simply an overall increase in shorting of all the stocks going on. And wonder if there isn't a larger bet going on over the Australian economy shrinking. I discounted the idea because there's no reference of what the total outstanding capital shortage of the top 100 was say a year ago. I also tried to go through a bunch of bottom 100 stocks to see if I could find one where it was obvious the shorters were closing their higher short positions from a few months back. But, it's too painful a manual process and I didn't glean any new insight.

 
macgyver
post Posted: Today, 11:52 AM
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In Reply To: bretto32's post @ Today, 10:40 AM

Buy orders exceeding sell orders.

It’s a trap!


Said 'Thanks' for this post: waz  
 
Justinian
post Posted: Today, 10:50 AM
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In Reply To: polyphemus's post @ Today, 10:36 AM

It should be an interesting balance sheet for sure. Increase in expenses will mean stuff is going on in the background which is also good.

 

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bretto32
post Posted: Today, 10:40 AM
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In Reply To: polyphemus's post @ Today, 10:36 AM

Ive also wondered what their plan is....I thought we might have seen $30 this morning and wonder if everytime they attempt to start buying back is when we see these small share price rises.

 
polyphemus
post Posted: Today, 10:36 AM
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Having borrowed 7.72% of the company's shares I wonder just how much more the Short positions have access to or how large they want their position to grow while continue holding the price at deflated values.

I suspect and hope that the financials out next week indicate a stronger December quarter than the 2018 period.
Stating the obvious, continued strength in the balance sheet should give confidence to potential investors.

I was only expecting US revenues this year in the Apr-Jun Quarter of circa $5m-$10m. But I see the potential for earlier revenue with any individual who is already covered by their insurance provider. Beats flying the Switzerland.


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Desert Rat
post Posted: Today, 02:12 AM
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In Reply To: LegendInMySpareTime's post @ Yesterday, 06:56 PM

I appreciate the perspective of a professional license person and did not understand the significance of the phrase in the Vyleesi license, "commercially reasonable efforts". In some ways the hold on the share price value for both PTN and CUV rests with "murky" management. CEO Carl Spana at PTN and PW at CUV are both prone to "gilding their lily" at the expense of corporate transparency. And, if you look at the total stock price chart for PTN, it opened at about $80/share in Nov 1997 and is now $70 cents, unlike CUV which has shown a steady increase in share value, albeit at a beyond-glacial pace. I do believe both PTN and CUV are currently very undervalued. And both companies' stock retracted AFTER FDA approval, which is exceedingly rare in the pharma industry. That speaks to unclear management, although PTN has been much better at presenting future plans and allocating capital towards franchise development. In contrast, CUV has projected many corporate events that never materialized, like the mysterious cosmetic line, the pediatric formulation, the small clinical trial of Scenesse in variegate porphyria, and more recently, the non-rollout of US drug distribution. Similarly, the vaporous "DNA repair" statements from CUV are quite naïve since DNA repair is a complex set of biological processes but not a clinically-testable specific indication, like say, xeroderma pigmentosum. Again, this shows a consistent lack of clarity bordering on obfuscation, from CUV management on future plans. I also hadn't thought about the US regions like Florida that could benefit from Scenesse availability now, in the so-called "winter" months. Thus, the current lack of drug availability in the US represents significant lost revenue, all while the clock is ticking on marketing exclusivity in the US. But, at least PW got his new performance rights.


Said 'Thanks' for this post: waz  macgyver  
 
LegendInMySpareT...
post Posted: Yesterday, 06:56 PM
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In Reply To: Desert Rat's post @ Yesterday, 03:30 AM

Reading through the update it only say that AMAG (and therefore future assignee) has "a contractual obligation to use commercially reasonable efforts to commercialise Vyleesi".

Personally, I work with licensing agreements on a daily basis, although in a very different industry, and I can say that one of my biggest regrets put into an agreement is the wording "commercially reasonable efforts".

Unless they have linked that wording against hard numbers it's hard to interpret what makes up a commercially reasonable effort, it's really vague language in a contract. If they wanted to claw back the license they would likely need to go through some extensive and expensive litigation if they wanted to claim that AMAG was in breach due to lack of commercially reasonable efforts.

It's good that they still have 92M USD in cash on 31DEC, although that's a 4.8M cash burn since Sep30 where they had 96.8M. From previous communications they said they would have enough money for their operations through at least 2021, so I guess if they only burn 19.2M annually (assuming they don't ramp up expenses further) they will have cash for a couple more years, but from previous communications it sounds like they are planning to spend more cash short term.

On the paper Palatin looks massively undervalued, with 92M in cash, no debt, a market cap of only 162M, an FDA approved drug and several other drugs in the pipeline. With all that in mind it's hard to see why the company is only valued at 70M USD ex cash. The main reason why I am still holding back on investing in them is the lingering worry that something is not right under the surface. Their previous history of dilution, the management and their ability to take commercially sound decisions are some of my worries.


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