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MARKET OUTLOOK - Healthcare, Pharma & Biotech, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
alonso
post Posted: Aug 15 2020, 11:59 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Aug 15 2020, 10:35 AM

Another health sector stock that continues to perform well through the crisis is Mach7 Technologies. They don't have the stock code here.



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"The optimist proclaims that we live in the best of all possible worlds. The pessimist fears this is true"

"What is prudence in the conduct of every private family can scarce be folly in that of a great kingdom." Adam Smith

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nipper
post Posted: Aug 15 2020, 10:35 AM
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Boom time for biotechs

COVID 19 has thrust the Australian biotech sector into the spotlight, but the potential big rewards come with high risk.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/not-for-the...55l93.html?btis

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Thecoronavirus pandemic has fuelled extraordinary volatility in the markets but the fight against the virus has also thrust relatively obscure companies into the spotlight and turned some into multibillion-dollar businesses.
The biotech sector, which includes diagnostics, novel drug development and medical devices, is big business. The top 10 healthcare companies on the ASX are worth more than $200 billion alone. Australia is renowned for its cutting edge research, and its largest life sciences companies such as CSL and ResMed have grown into multibillion-dollar exports with sustained share price growth.

Beyond these household names, there are more than 80 listed smaller pharmaceutical and medical device companies working, often under the radar, to turn brand new therapies into reality.

And there are big rewards on offer for investors but as Silvio Itescu says, the sector also presents significant risks. Investors should understand that biotech is a highly regulated field ... it requires patience, diligence and ultimately you're in the hands of regulators.

Having said that, there's got to be more of an understanding of the hurdles but also the rewards, if the tech works and it is patented and has an exclusive area of focus, really if you can make substantial differences to patients and their outcomes, you have the ability to create a new industry, Itescu says.

While the sector has not traditionally been on the radar of many investors, experts say the pandemic has generated awareness of the role of drug and treatment supply chains, which has in turn led to money flowing into the sector.

Atomo Diagnostics experience since listing on the ASX in April illustrates the new found enthusiasm of investors in punting on stocks involved in testing, treating and eradicating COVID 19.

The rapid diagnostic testing startup pitched itself to the market with a test for HIV but quickly shifted its focus to developing a COVID19 test. Atomo's rapid antibody test was approved by the Therapeutic Goods Administration last week, launching it into the Australian market. As the pandemic put biotech companies front and centre, its share price jumped. Sitting at 38 on Friday, the business is trading 90 per cent above its initial public offer price.

Managing director John Kelly says the swift pivot has served the company well and while investor interest in biotechs is welcome, it's what happens once the virus is contained that will be crucial for the sector.

"I think for a company like Atomo it's a bit of a double-edged sword, it's increased interest in the sector, but at the same time there has been such a level of media saturation. We'd rather grow a steady share price over five years rather than spiking over one year.

Atomo is not the only small biotech that has rocketed in recent months. Real-time lung function tracking company 4D Medical soared on its ASX debut in the second week of August, up 117 per cent on its 73 offer price to $1.59...

Even fund managers that have benefited from the growth of vaccine stocks in recent months urge caution about evaluating investment opportunities in the space.

Platinum Asset Management's international healthcare fund portfolio manager Bianca Ogden has been watching companies like Moderna for years, and invested since the company's IPO in 2018, when it bought in at $US23.

Ogden says there has been a lot of money flowing through US biotech stocks, but she is also watching closely for when the fuel of vaccine enthusiasm wears off. I wonder if the next data point is where they run out of puff.

The global pandemic has given local investors a better insight into research processes and medical products, particularly around diagnostics and tests, she says. But cautions that despite there being strong companies both here and abroad, investors shouldn't be jumping into stocks without considering their long-term risks and rewards. You have to take the emotion out and look at 'what can this company realistically generate in sales?', she says.

Ogden says there are plenty of up and coming Australian-founded biotechs that will grow beyond the pandemic but the challenge will be competing with some of their cashed-up US peers. I think there are some good companies one of the issues here is the funding environment, it's sometimes a bit challenging. For larger trials, for example, you often need $20 million-$50 million.

Her team is currently focused on finding investment opportunities with inventions that will be of use beyond the pandemic. We tend to gravitate to things that are less discovered, less in the headlines.

Securing the research pipeline
However, investors believe Australia has the power to further capitalise on rising appetite for biotechs post COVID, although there will be some hurdles.
Melbourne was ranked among the top 40 startup ecosystems in the world this year by global research firm Startup Genome. Its debut on the list was based largely on the strength of the life sciences sector, which Startup Genome believes generates close to $17 billion in economic activity each year.

There's going to be great careers in being a research scientist, because more than any time perhaps in history, we will find funds being dedicated to this area, Alex Waislitz says.

However, Paul Kelly, who oversees the $170 million healthcare fund at OneVentures, says the country will have to face up to local challenges. COVID19 has hit Australian universities incredibly hard, having implications for research projects that might one day be spun out into successful companies. That significant impact runs the risk of really gutting research and development. There may be impacts we won't see for the next five to 10 years.

Atomo's Kelly agrees that Australia's challenge will be improving the commercialisation pipeline. The research is brilliant, we could do better at turning that research into businesses that can grow globally, he says.

Despite the commercialisation challenges, he's hopeful the pandemic has reframed the sector. It has been a bit unloved in Australia at times the appetite is not always patient enough and sophisticated enough, Kelly says. With the pandemic, one positive that might come out of it is these types of businesses are more investable.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Jul 24 2020, 01:04 PM
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QUOTE
We see increased interest in telehealth solutions, like tele ICU [intensive care unit], tele radiology, tele pathology, which can help virtual working and collaboration of care professionals, as well as move care into the community to relieve the tremendous pressure on the physical constraints of the hospitals

Frans van Houten, CEO, Philips NV [global healthcare company]



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Jul 16 2020, 04:12 PM
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Australian private equity firm Crescent Capital Partners has ramped up plans to sell its pathology group, Australian Clinical Labs.
QUOTE
It is understood Crescent has hired Bank of America's investment banking team to pitch the business to potential buyers, with an auction slated to kick off in coming months. Australian Clinical Labs is expected to be worth more than $600 million. The group is Australia's third biggest pathology services provider with $443 million revenue last financial year and an estimated 13.1 per cent market share, according to data collector IBISWorld.

It's expected to attract interest from the top two players Sonic Healthcare and Healius, which have about 75 per cent of the market between them, as well as other Australian health sector players, offshore groups and private equity firms.

Crescent Capital bought what was hospital owner Healthscope's Australian pathology business in $105 million to create Australian Clinical Labs in 2015. It acquired St John of Gold Health Care's pathology unit in 2016 to add chunky Victorian and Western Australian businesses to a network that already spanned across Victoria, South Australia, NSW and the Northern Territory.

...It also amid a shake up in Australian health sector assets with private equity groups stepping up ownership of private hospitals, GP clinics, radiology and other businesses.

Australian Clinical Labs' mooted auction comes as a soon-to-be cashed up Healius re-focuses on its diagnostics and day hospitals portfolio. Street Talk has written about Healius' interest in the business in the past, although it remains to be seen whether such a tie up would pass muster with the competition regulator.

It also comes amid a rollercoaster ride for the country's pathology and radiology groups. Volumes were heavily impacted in March and April as private hospitals and doctors cut back on non-emergency services, however have sprung back to life in recent months.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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nipper
post Posted: Jul 3 2020, 10:42 AM
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Emerging Health Technology companies ..... it is all about going digital

There will be challenges for all innovation companies to raise capital in the coming year from their traditional sources such as super funds, venture capital, private equity and high-net-worth individuals, because all had faced financial challenges due to COVID-19. Over the next two to three years, accessing capital is likely to be difficult, and companies attracting foreign investment would need to navigate the changed foreign investment review thresholds while they remained in place.
Capital restraints are likely to exacerbate cash-flow issues for pre-revenue companies developing medical-grade products and services. Many companies would also need highly specialised support to enter international markets, especially while barriers to international travel remained closed.

Some seventy per cent of respondents in a report, Digital Health: The Sleeping Giant of Australia's Health Technology Industry, say they intended to raise capital in the year ahead. The May 2020 survey showed that telehealth-related digital health technologies would be the biggest beneficiaries of the pandemic (85.3 per cent), followed by remote monitoring (67.6 per cent). The industry is also hopeful data analytics will benefit along with mental health-related technologies. A significant number of Australian companies are aligned to these segments, with 37 per cent developing technologies aimed for home use, a quarter developing data analytics and systems and 17 per cent focused on mental health.
According to the report released by ANDHealth, there are more than 300 emerging digital health companies across Australia



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 18 2020, 08:32 AM
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Seems to be a lot of work going on) in antimicrobials. Here's another (that may take the wind out of the sails of others aspirants)

https://www.advancedsciencenews.com/lights-...ound-dressings/

QUOTE
Infections are a serious threat that can have fatal consequences, especially following surgery and during wound treatment. Biomimetic hydrogels with “built-in” antimicrobial properties can significantly decrease this danger.

In the journal Angewandte Chemie, scientists have now introduced a gel that is activated by red light to produce reactive oxygen compounds that effectively kill bacteria and fungi .....




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: triage  mullokintyre  
 

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nipper
post Posted: Jan 15 2020, 10:51 AM
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In Reply To: alonso's post @ Jan 15 2020, 09:51 AM

we are many ... but (what) have we learned? smile.gif


I do sell the duff ones, but not soon enough




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
alonso
post Posted: Jan 15 2020, 09:51 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jan 15 2020, 09:48 AM

Nipper, how many of us have learned the hard way with that sector?



--------------------
"The optimist proclaims that we live in the best of all possible worlds. The pessimist fears this is true"

"What is prudence in the conduct of every private family can scarce be folly in that of a great kingdom." Adam Smith

Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  Pendragon  
 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 15 2020, 09:48 AM
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Biotech sure is a sector the 'guns' like to short
QUOTE
The latest Bronte Capital letter says biotechnology stocks are a haven for stock market scammers and will remain an attractive hunting ground for its short selling strategies.]The letter says biotech stocks are like lottery tickets that “either result in a therapeutic drug and (maybe) a lot of money or it doesn’t".

"Almost everyone, including most of the experts, are shooting in the dark. Biotech offers promoters the chance to sell worthless or nearly worthless lottery tickets to gamblers.”

Bronte Capital says it has shorted hundreds of biotech stocks and in the process it has learned from its mistakes in order to improve its trading flexibility.

The letter describes a typical problem when shorting a biotech.

“The biotech that announced (overhyped) ‘positive’ results and raised money has:
a) gone up a lot (making it a better short),
b) has a freer borrow because more shares have been issued to the public (making it a better short) but
c) has also raised cash which will make it last longer before it goes to zero (making it a worse short),” the letter says.

"We are not even sure how to weight these factors even though we have a database of several hundred past biotech shorts. “As our systems get better, we wish to fine-tune all of this. It won’t change the big-picture mix in our portfolio ... but it should hopefully be able to increase our returns or reduce our risk".




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 22 2019, 05:36 PM
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Sohn stock pick: Regal’s Phil King - SHORT PolyNovo (PNV ASX)
QUOTE
There’s a lot of expensive stocks out there and one only has to look at the ASX: If the FAANG stocks look toppy trading on a multiple of 5 times sales, what then to make of the Aussie tech stocks trading on 13 times?

Well, “the biggest bubble in the Australian stockmarket today is Australian biotech,” King says, christening them the PPANCs (PolyNovo, Pro Medicus, Avita Medical, Nanosonics and Clinuvel.)

Regal is actually long Avita, but “we needed the vowel”. Healthcare stocks in Australia are prone to bubbles, King warns. We don’t have the big pharmaceutical companies like Europe, and Australians aren’t that good at valuing them.

Passive investing has surely helped fuel the rally, as four out of five PPANC stocks have joined the ASX 200.

PolyNovo is singled out as having the most downside. “We think the competition’s well established, the company’s still losing money and it’s never delivered on expectations,” King says, adding: “there’s no room for disappointment”.

Mark Twain once said a mining company is a hole in the ground with a liar on top.

An Australian biotech is a medical lab with a good salesperson on top.




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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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