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Gold, Discussion
joules mm1
post Posted: Today, 01:47 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Today, 01:02 PM

quite right !
theyre using the leaves to figure on zones to dig versus the idea of extracting gold from tree leaves




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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
nipper
post Posted: Today, 01:02 PM
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In Reply To: joules mm1's post @ Today, 12:53 PM

despite yr cynicism, biogeochemical sampling isn't too far out there. It is merely a technique, and may work when looking for traces that are close to the surface. It is only ever to be a ppm thing
QUOTE
Reconnaissance Success (Ann of 31 July 2019)
Tree leaves yield new discovery gold hole located 450m to the NE.

By targeting elevated gold in tree leaves outside the known area of mineralisation (recon drilling), Marmota has made a new discovery hole 19ATAC098 located about 450m north of the Aurora Tank mineralised zone, and intersecting 6m @ 3.4 g/t gold (from 44m to end of hole). This hole was drilled to test a biogeochemical target from sampling of Senna tree leaves


https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/artic...375674210000166




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Today, 12:53 PM
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this had me laugh.gif

" MEU...They're looking for gold in tree leaves!..."
found on social media
you know the old "Tallest Building Index" or the "Restaurant Index"
i think we've found our sell gold index

extracting gold from tree leaves

.......the moment equivalent to landlords asking for rents in gold bullion and gold-specific ATM's appearing
remember what happened to bitcoin not long after the first bitcoin ATM's appeared ....



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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Today, 10:53 AM
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a secondary channel is confirmed, this has not confirmed a rotation in the larger up-phase, not yet,

..the current "sell the news spikes" and the extreme positioning of both major groups (managers v commercials) suggest the bets downside are better
Attached Image






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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price

Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Sep 14 2019, 08:44 PM
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worth noting

the xauusd cfd hit 1557's sept 5th

this morning we closed just above the low of swing south of 1484's of sept 11th


that's 73 points in 5 trading sessions, slightly over 4.5% swing, not huge, but, quick

what's interesting and sits inline with the www.timincharts.com COT readings for GC contract

is the reading for retail cfd positions which is 73% BTO (long)

if we say the other 27% is hedging (unlikely) then that 73% buy to open is very bullish mentality, very little fear, buy the dip rationale

if you traverse twitterspere the vast majority of "chartists" show a a clear delination to longer-term/larger timeframe bull scenarios where this weeks move was a simple reset
what's interesting is, almost unanimously, no one see the downside



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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price

Said 'Thanks' for this post: mullokintyre  
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Sep 14 2019, 03:21 PM
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https://www.providentmetals.com/knowledge-c...-explained.html
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on this chart i've drawn an orthodox triangle
the whole bounce may now be completed based on this techno-speak

in this chart there are 3 legs, up-down-up
where up is fairly simple and obvious
the down is complicated in a triangle, the triangle is complete
it consists of ABCDE, there is a ratio of 1:.382 of the C and E, this is a typical construct to complete the triangle
the next and final move, the second up (of the up-down-up) is a thrust symmetry of the first up leg
that is usually 100% (ratio of 1:1)

the practice is to draw a vertical line (price length low-to-high) of A (low)

to the (high) green timeline, that vertical line is the "thrust" price length applied to the termination of the E leg
the end of the E is the end of the triangle, the triangle has already ended before it exits the boundry of the triangle

price typically under or over-throws that target by a few ticks but should be near enough to confirm other markers i would use closer to the rotation
Attached Image



my normal asking question of any techno-speak is; does it affect how i would trade the bars during the session i think a substantial rotation is printing?
in other words, would this "event" or zone of likelyhood make any difference to the trade technique normally applied?
as this is a specific criteria for trade perspective rather than just normal trade technique, the answer is definitively yes, simply because the risk

we should expect to see a swing in how the auction is transacting, what volatility occurs and what new price lengths are printing, meaning, how are the
swings unfurling, do the moves fit the picture of a "larger: rotation, doe sit make sense, does the price action fit a new context,
fit the current context, do the swings make relative sense
this merely adds to specific trade executions we can take without adding risk and allows the levels (most recent high now holding a higher profile)
to be navigated with a new roadmap in mind, at least how to profile, how to frame my thinking on what is the higher probability(s) unfolding
it allows reframing the context of the larger plays at hand and who is likely conducting business, given the time of day etc...
it would, more importantly, define sizing and whether a positional trade (an anchor) is worth the risk, we don't want to open the screen after the weekend
and find we've been gapped out and i have to see markers that suggest the construct fits a larger rotation, mostly those markers are going to be the

extremes in sentiment (with the previous trend) and price construct in the direction of the rotation

if the new pricing, or price construct is clean, non-overlapping, with momo that suggests volume entering and we have impulsivity in the new trend
direction....so far
the next effort over coming days and weeks is to find the marker that says the larger trend is printing in the new direction, this not just affects how risk
is framed but if an anchor position requires paring
while it is nice to have a tenet that we should take a 100% reward if we're taking 100% risk, in reality we must accept that finding and acting on a major
trend swing is extremely rare.....



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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 


joules mm1
post Posted: Sep 14 2019, 12:42 AM
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In Reply To: joules mm1's post @ Sep 14 2019, 12:34 AM

Julian
@TraderJazzHands
·
1m
when does the "incontrovertible uptrend" become the inconsolable downtrend? 1484's front month connie

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words on a screen, just another cupcake on the highway, 2c worth



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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Sep 14 2019, 12:34 AM
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i have several stop-sells (STO) triggered already

Attached Image





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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 10 2019, 11:53 AM
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Zero hedge carry an interview with Greenspan.
Have not agreed with much he has done since he chaired the FED, but has an interesting take on gold.

From Zero Hedge

QUOTE
During the interview, Greenspan focused on an interesting fundamental he thinks is driving both the bond and gold markets - the aging population. He said there has been a shift in time preferences as people recognize they will likely live longer and they will need to finance those longer lives. This, he says, is increasing the demand for hard assets like gold.

One of the reasons that the gold price is rising as fast as it is … that’s telling us essentially that people are hard resources which they know are going to have a value 20 years from now, or 30 years from now as they age, and they want to make sure they have the resources to keep themselves in place. That is a clearly fundamental force that is driving this.

Historically, gold has served as an inflation hedge and a wealth preserver. It makes sense that investors concerned about maintaining their savings well into the future would turn to gold. This is especially true given the likelihood of increasing inflation as the Federal Reserve continues to try to prop up the economy with low interest rates and quantitative easing.
Peter Schiff has said that eventually, the world will drown in an ocean of inflation.

Every central bank has bought into this nonsense that we must have inflation and that interest rates need to be negative. Inflation needs to be high enough to have real negative rates all over the globe. That’s where we are heading. So, if that is the case, people have no place to hide except gold and that is why they’re buying.”

Greenspan also talked about negative interest rates. He said the aging population is also one underlying factor in falling bond yields. An aging population is driving demand for bonds, pushing up the price and driving down yield. He says he eventually expects to see negative yields in the US.

You’re seeing it pretty much throughout the world. It’s only a matter of time before it’s more in the United States.”

There is now more than $15 trillion in negative-yielding debt globally. Greenspan said when there is a significant change in the attitude of the population, the “look for coupon.”

As a result of that, there’s a tendency to disregard the fact that that has an effect in the net interest rate that they receive.”

As far as the economy goes, Greenspan said it “seems to be sagging.”

Former Reagan OMB director David Stockman had another take on falling bond yields, saying recently that the bond market is in the “mother of all bubbles.”

What we’re seeing is rampant speculation in the bond market. Investors are banking on continued bond-buying by central banks. They believe this will continue to push prices up and they’re speculating on the rising prices. It’s nothing but a massive bond market bubble.”


Bill Bonner has another take on gold.

QUOTE
In 1980, stocks traded at an all-time bottom, in gold terms, when you could buy all 30 Dow stocks for less than 2 ounces of gold. By 1999, they hit an all-time high, when it took 40 ounces.

In terms of time, the move was less dramatic – but it told the same story.

The average working man had to work about 100 hours to buy the Dow stocks in 1980. By 1999, he had to put in 821 hours.

It looked like the stock market was out of whack on both ends.

In 1980, stocks were too cheap. In 1999, they were too dear. But then, the stock market began a “correction.” The Nasdaq started to fall in January 2000. A year and a half later, it was down nearly 80% from its peak.

Measured in time, it took the average person 350 hours of labor to buy the Nasdaq in 1999. By mid-2001, it took only 85.

Meanwhile, the Dow industrials wiggle-waggled around after January 2000, but fell hard after the mortgage meltdown in 2008.

At the bottom, in March 2009, the average person could buy the Dow for about half as many hours of work as it cost him 1999.


Hence, its obvious to Bill that the DOW is wildly over priced, and is well due for a correction.
He goes on further to say

QUOTE
With the help of the late Dow Jones theorist Richard Russell, we began to see that stock and bond markets followed big, long-term patterns.

It took about 20-40 years for the stock market to complete a full cycle – top to top. The bond market took even longer. Scarcely anybody is still around who recalls the top of the last bull market in bonds. It happened in 1949; now, 70 years later, they’re hitting a new bubble high.

While we knew we couldn’t predict the markets, we began to see that we could spot major tops and bottoms by looking at prices in terms of gold.

The yellow metal is not perfect money. Like everything else in the natural world, it is subject to fits and furies. But it is still the most reliable money humans ever found. And over time, it does a fair job of telling us when things are out of whack.

This led to a very simple Capital Loss Avoidance System, which proved to be very effective for long-term capital preservation: Any time you can buy the Dow for less than 5 ounces of gold, you should buy all the stocks you can. Then, when the Dow goes over 15 ounces of gold, you should sell stocks, buy gold, and sit tight until stocks fall again.

The real beauty of it is that it doesn’t require any research or any pretense of knowledge.

A quick check sees the dow currently costing about 17 ounces of gold to buy the DOW.
So, one has to ask, based on this theory, is gold massively underpriced, or is the DOW massively overpriced.
It would seem its a bit of both, but with a greater fall in the DOW than a rise in gold on the cards.

Mick





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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: lgrif  
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Sep 10 2019, 10:51 AM
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$XAUUSD front month cfd broke 1502's very smoothly, bids have essentially dried up but shorters are not pressing the pedal down, yet

we should expect a puke sell at the low of this first leg down
and then a few days to weeks of resetting to allow bidders to catch their breath and buy the dip
the bounce is likely to be taudry and catch both sides out so patience is the key as we have not yet found a clear confirmation the
downtrend has resumed, at that point pricing should move swiftly
this pretty much somes up the 30 year T which display a smooth trend south too (so far)
there is no specific level i can site downside for either intstrument that we should aim for, there are plenty of

rotational ratios (swings against the trend) to use as resistance






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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price

Said 'Thanks' for this post: mullokintyre  
 
 


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