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CUV, CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED
Frogster
post Posted: Today, 03:20 PM
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In Reply To: Justinian's post @ Today, 02:58 PM

If you aggregate the receipts from customers on a quarterly basis from Q1 12/13 until Q4 17/18 and calculate the proportion that each of these has been for total receipts, then Q1 has averaged 26% of RfC, Q2 21%, Q3 14% and Q4 39%. So, statistically Q3 has been on average the lowest quarter, and Q4 by far the strongest.

Each year can vary quite a bit from these averages due to timing factors, and of course there's a strong growth rate underlying all the data which makes for an imperfect analysis. I think we mostly thought Q2 in the current financial year was surprisingly weak. CUV reported this as being in part due to customers paying more quickly than in the corresponding prior period but they haven't explained if the same behaviour will repeat, or if it will likely have a positive or negative effect on the Q3 results.

FWIW I'm modelling that Q3 will be better than Q2 was, but in light of the timing factor question, my conviction is not strong on this.



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Dr Wolgen is a magician.
His end game for Scenesse will impress, or even amaze.
En route, along with glimmers of truth, there will be distractions, illusions, sleight of hand and misdirection.
Enjoy the ride.
 
Justinian
post Posted: Today, 02:58 PM
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In Reply To: seeva222's post @ Today, 02:09 PM

Receipts from customers in the Jan 31th, 2019 report was 2,608. October 31st 2018 was 10,705. July 30th 2018 was 10,388. April 30th, 2018 report was 3,480.

So even after more customers being served since the 1Q 2018 timeframe, the most recent quarter (4Q 2018) was still the smallest in the last year. I think the fact that the customers purchase the implants ahead of time offsets the fact that there is a delay in reporting.
https://www.clinuvel.com/investors/news/announcements for reference


 
seeva222
post Posted: Today, 02:09 PM
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In Reply To: Justinian's post @ Today, 01:16 PM

Isn’t this the lowest quarter because it’s out of season? Cash receipts are on a delay.


 
Justinian
post Posted: Today, 01:16 PM
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I'm mad at myself for buying for the last time probably a few weeks ago. April 30th is supposed to be the next quarterly financial report. This should have a significant increase since it will be the beginning of the in-demand season and there have been hints that more countries in Europe are online. I'm guessing this will be the lowest the stock will be ever, unless it dips more between now and April 30th.

Even if the FDA had issues, I can't imagine it being worse than "give us more data" with a delay. And there would be other profits coming in from other countries which would bump up the stock price in this scenario and a probable ASX200 inclusion would also bump the price by the time the FDA reaches a decision.


 
G dawg Delaney
post Posted: Today, 11:32 AM
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In Reply To: macgyver's post @ Today, 11:17 AM

No time for suspicion my friend, im on the case of this “suntan barbie doll” drug.
What I don’t quite understand is how that terrible drug, that was so destructive that the FDA didn’t even need to reject it, and Scenesse are linked?


 
macgyver
post Posted: Today, 11:17 AM
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In Reply To: G dawg Delaney's post @ Today, 11:01 AM

Mr Delaney, given the quality of your blogs that you write for Clinuvel and what you have written here, I was convinced you are who you say you are. I became suspicious when I saw your middle name.


Said 'Thanks' for this post: mrdax  
 


G dawg Delaney
post Posted: Today, 11:01 AM
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In Reply To: johnnytech's post @ Yesterday, 12:44 AM

“suntan barbie doll drug”
WOW! As your favourite business journalist with 30 years experience working for newspapers and magazines in the Asia Pacific region, Can I be the guy that asks WTF is this nasty sounding substance? Other than it being the weirdest most pathetic sounding drug in the history of drugs. Pablo Escobar would be rolling in his grave.

Are you sure this kooky sounding drug wasn’t featured in a 90210 episode where a couple of seedy Portuguese dealers in cheap suits get taken down behind the lifeguard tower with a briefcase filled with 12 kilos of the stuff by Pammy Anderson who’s playing an over zealous undercover LAPD officer?
Seriously though, this sounds like something I could get really get my teeth into as I’m due to submit another column for Pier. I’ll do some research and get back. I’m a little confused about it all atm.

What were these EPITAN guys thinking attempting to pass this horrific “suntan barbie doll drug” off as a legitimate photo protective drug like Clinuvels Scenesse. No wonder the FDA didn’t even have to reject it. A few quiet words on the side and the drug that sounds like something some thug preschoolers might be peddling out of some inner city kindy is booted into the dustpan of dodgy fake drug history.



 
seeva222
post Posted: Today, 10:15 AM
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In Reply To: Verharven's post @ Today, 08:31 AM

Buy 45 days before, sell 4 days after. In between for us is the ASX announcement

 
Johnny H
post Posted: Today, 09:48 AM
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In Reply To: Texas T's post @ Today, 08:13 AM

The last time I looked into the Singapore operations (over a year ago), I think I concluded that the entire operation was centered around optimizing the efficacy of the New Molecules in the human body. I can't remember what led me to that conclusion, but I think it was a combination of the expenditures and some of the job postings that other people here found.


I wouldn't expect to see much new research out of Clinuvel yet for reasons already stated below.



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Clinuvel until my bowels release for the last time.

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macgyver
post Posted: Today, 09:45 AM
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In Reply To: Texas T's post @ Today, 08:13 AM

Knowing PW’s penchant for secrecy, I would think this scenario is most plausible. I do feel Clinuvel’s foray into CNS and anti-inflammatory indications would be extremely nascent considering they have focused their energies and money on the FDA approval. I think I’ve seen one or two job advertisements for scientists for the operation in Singapore in the last two years, which I would guess is solely concentrating on dermal applications.

That said, this is the second mention via social media concerning DNA repair/anti-inflammatory/CNS neuronal type conditions so perhaps there is something in it. If not, it would be uncharacteristic of PW to start planting seeds about indications that are way off in the future. He is the polar opposite of Palatin’s CEO...

 
 


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