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BLD, BORAL LIMITED
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jun 9 2019, 11:29 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jun 9 2019, 10:43 AM

Could be EB, who knows what drives the market these days,!




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early birds
post Posted: Jun 9 2019, 10:43 AM
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https://au.yahoo.com/finance/news/analysts-...-015342616.html

This will have implications for S&P/ASX 200 (Index:^AXJO) (ASX:XJO) stocks. Those with large US dollar exposure will benefit from the weak exchange rate and they include the Boral Limited (ASX: BLD) share price and RESMED/IDR UNRESTR (ASX: RMD) share price, just to name a few.

On the flipside, those who sell locally and have US dollar costs could be disadvantaged. These include retailers like Premier Investments Limited (ASX: PMV) – although they probably have more to worry about than the exchange rate – and Coca-Cola Amatil Ltd (ASX: CCL).
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Mick
is this the main reason for BLD to rise last few weeks??? unsure.gif



 
nipper
post Posted: May 31 2019, 11:39 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ May 31 2019, 10:22 AM

QUOTE
In an investor briefing this morning building materials group Boral says the infrastructure market continues to be “strong” but it is looking for a “strong June to finish the year”.

While Boral refrained from issuing any new earnings guidance until August, it said demand is shifting from supplying residential housing projects to infrastructure.

Still it noted south-east Queensland and NSW residential was softening but Victorian infrastructure projects are strengthening. Overall, concrete volumes continue to be softer relative to prior year, it added.

It says capital expenditure should reduce going forward while earnings from its land holdings, particularly as disused quarries are converted, remain a feature of the business including adding around $30 million in financial 2019.
- stronger but for how much longer? Though infrastructure has scale and predictability.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: May 31 2019, 10:22 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ May 3 2019, 10:14 AM

Obviously the market thinks that BLD will benefit greatly from the non change in Government.
Upward momentum confirmed.
Not only holding that 5 handle, but gone right thru it.

Next stop looking for that 7 handle from September last year.

Mick



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mullokintyre
post Posted: May 3 2019, 10:14 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Apr 17 2019, 02:49 PM

Touched 5 handle this morning.
Been a gradual rise since March.
Added to my small position to make it a medium position.
Bit of a gamble I know, it may not hold above 5, but willing to take a small risk.
Mick



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mullokintyre
post Posted: Apr 17 2019, 02:49 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Apr 15 2019, 02:19 PM

Up another 2% today.
Getting close to that 5..
Have no idea why it is trending up, but heck, I'll take it.

Mick



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mullokintyre
post Posted: Apr 15 2019, 02:19 PM
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Boral slowly making a bit of a comeback.
A close above the 5 handle would be a nice indicator.

Mick



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mullokintyre
post Posted: Feb 4 2019, 09:09 AM
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Market did not like BLD's annual figures.
Think its more to do with the cladding fire than the annual report.
Heading down to areas not seen since 2009.
I have put some speccy lowball bids in just in case.

Mick



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nipper
post Posted: Aug 29 2018, 05:44 PM
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QUOTE
annual underlying profit rose 48 per cent to $441m compared with an analysts’ consensus figure of $448m driven by the local infrastructure construction market and growth from its Headwaters unit which Mr Kane described as “a gem” following its $US2.6bn acquisition of the Utah-based construction materials group in early 2017.

The company said it expects growth across all of its business in the 2019 fiscal year including a significant lift in earnings from its North American division.

Boral Australia should lift EBITDA by the high single digits if property is excluded in both years with volumes from commercial, infrastructure and major projects activity offsetting a moderating residential construction sector.

USG Boral earnings are expected to grow by 10 per cent and Boral North America EBITDA by 20 per cent...
- always thought the shorts - quoting housing off the boil - were somewhat misguided
QUOTE
"What I look at is my order book and when I look at what we’re bidding on and the volume of work in roads, highways, infrastructure, bridges, tunnels and airports is just amazing,” chief executive Mike Kane said on a media call. “Look at the announcement that came out of Victoria. These projects are coming at us day after day after day and they all don’t have to be built for us to have an extraordinary next decade.”




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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nipper
post Posted: Feb 6 2017, 08:58 AM
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QUOTE
The negative response to a recent major acquisition has created the opportunity

During November 2016, BLD acquired a US building and construction materials company called Headwaters for $AUD $3.5 billion. The acquisition was significant for BLD, the value of the bid for Headwater represented 80% of BLD's market capitalisation of $AUD 4.3 billion.

The market generally viewed the BLD transaction negatively. The perception was BLD paid too much for Headwater, particularly considering the high degree of risk in joining the two companies together.

There are some potential positives from the deal…

We do see some positives from the Headwater transaction. In addition to increasing BLD's exposure to the US housing market, the acquisition will see BLD move to dominant market shares in some key building material product lines. BLD will have a 50% share of the US concrete and clay market, 60% of stone1 and 55% of fly ash.

On the back of greater dominance in key product lines and greater scale, BLD has put forward some reasonably aggressive synergy targets, expected to be $100 million over the next four years, coming from:
 Procurement (ability to source raw materials at lower prices due to buying power)
 Operational cost savings (fixed cost overheads, economies of scale)
 Cross selling and distribution (economies of scope)

If these synergies are achieved, the price BLD has paid for Headwater is much more reasonable,
but we accept the market will not believe them until there is further evidence

Boral Valuation
How are our forecasts for BLD earnings different to market forecasts? In our valuation of BLD we assume the following:
 A 10% per annum recovery in new US housing construction (the market is at 5%)
 A decline in Australian new housing construction from 250,000 to 160,000
 A 6% per annum increase in renovations in the USA
 A recovery in Australian non-residential construction (fixed asset investment)
 $75 million in synergy benefits from the Headwater acquisition

Once we have included these assumptions into our model, we assess we are paying approximately 11 times 2019 earnings for BLD. Furthermore, we expect that market will be pricingin further growth from 2019 as we will only be part way through the US new housing construction recovery.

Whilst a judgement call, we expect the market will be willing to pay 16 times for BLD's 2019 earnings, implying 40% upside from the current share price of $5.60.

We believe the mispricing of BLD shares is caused by negative sentiment towards the recent Headwater acquisition as well as scepticism around the trajectory in the US housing market recovery.
Newdegate Absolute Return Fund

market response has improved. Since Ann in Nov, BLD risen from sub $5.00 to $5.80



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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