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IPO's, UPCOMING FLOATS
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 3 2019, 11:44 AM
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Something to think about in 2019 - especially with upcoming IPO's based on "hot themes"
HOW YOU GOT SCREWED IN 2018
Video by Jamie Keech, focused on TSX, but VERY relevant to what's happening on the ASX.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPO9N8CpX1Y

Slide from that video entitled - "Value Pyramid"
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 30 2019, 02:07 PM
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2018 was a 'poor' year for newly-listed companies on the ASX
By business reporter David Chau
QUOTE
Most companies which listed on the Australian share market in 2018 "performed poorly", and the outlook for this year is looking rather downbeat.

Half of the 93 businesses which floated last year lost, on average, 18 per cent of their value — with a quarter suffering losses of 50 per cent or more.

Those were the key findings of an "IPO Watch Australia" report, released today by accounting and advisory firm HLB Mann Judd.

2018 was a year of extreme volatility, particularly in the final quarter, as Asian markets, Wall Street (briefly) and oil prices fell into a bear market, plummeting 20 per cent from their peak prices.

This coincided with the United States and China raising up their trade war, the Federal Reserve raising US interest rates, and a surge in value for the US greenback.

Only 20 out of the 93 companies which listed on the ASX in 2018 ended the year on a stronger note.

"This is a worse performance than other market indicators, with the ASX 200 recording a decrease of 7 per cent for the calendar year," said HLM partner Marcus Ohm.

He also said there is likely to be a fall in the number of initial public offerings (IPOs) in the next half-year.


QUOTE
Best and worst performers
Of the "large cap" stocks which debuted on the local share market, hemp oil producer Elixinol Global was the best performer, according to HLM.

Elixinol's stock jumped 150 per cent to finish the year at $2.50 per share, since it debuted on the ASX in early-2018.

Mr Ohm said only three large cap stocks ended the year higher, with the other two only posting gains of 7 per cent or lower.

HLM's report said the three largest IPOs last year were Viva Energy (an oil company), Coronado Global Resources (a coal producer) and L1 Long Short Fund (an investment firm).

Collectively, they raised $4.75 billion between them, and accounted for 64 per cent of the total funds raised from IPOs last year.

The best-performing newly-listed companies were in the consumer durables and apparel segment, as their share prices soared 96 per cent since their debuts.

The next-best-performing segments were household and personal products (+87pc) and pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences (+54pc).

On the flipside, the worst performers among the stocks which floated last year were telecommunications (-60pc), consumer services (-42pc), technology, hardware and equipment (-35pc) and diversified financials (-32pc).

Materials was the sector which had the most listings (35), and represented 38 per cent of all IPOs.

However, newly listed materials companies underperformed as their share price, on average, was 26 per cent lower than the price at which they were initially offered.

More than half the listings in that sector were gold projects (60pc). There were also a significant number of copper (23pc) and cobalt (14pc) listings.

The number of large-cap company listings (over $100 million market cap) continued to fall in 2018, and was down from 39 in 2014 to 21 in 2018.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-30/2018...ection=business



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 16 2019, 07:04 PM
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Posts: 5,411
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 25 2018, 11:55 AM

Hugh Dive: The Liar's Poker theatrics behind the IPO process

QUOTE
Today I am going to outline how institutional investors generally approach an IPO and the game of "Liar's Poker" that goes on between fund managers and the investment banks running the IPO process.

Liar's Poker was the title of the 1989 book by Michael Lewis. It refers to a game played by bond traders at Salomon Brothers that involves gambling on the serial numbers of bank bills, where the strategy revolves around bluffing one's opponents. In the case of an IPO, Liar's Poker refers to the dance that goes on between institutional investors and the investment banks, especially one in which the pricing is yet to be determined
.
QUOTE
One reason investment banks are keen to run an IPO process or a capital raising (other than the fat fees) is that in the allocation of holdings they can reward their good clients and use it as a lever to attract new clients. From my observations, large allocations tend to go to the funds that generate the largest brokerage commission, which are often high-turnover hedge funds rather than long-term owners of the company.


We tend to be generally sceptical about initial public offers, as the seller has a strong incentive to obtain the highest price, writes Hugh Dive.

They achieve this by painting a glowing picture of the business they are selling and by choosing the most favourable moment (to them) in the business cycle to offer the shares for sale to the investing public.

Additionally, during the marketing period new investors generally have only a few weeks to research the new company, mostly using financial data provided by the seller and carefully choreographed visits to inspect the soon-to-be-listed company's assets.

Read the full piece here.

read more - https://www.afr.com/markets/hugh-dive-the-l...20190116-h1a429

Another good read on the same topic, IPO's, is

The dark art of capital raising
By Jemima Whyte and Jonathan Shapiro
08 Jun 2018 — 11:00 PM

QUOTE
For the best part of a decade, they've been the masters of this little universe. The middle men that have matched the billions of dollars of capital that have flowed into the stock market with the corporations in need of it, Australia's investment bankers have maintained a position of power.


read more - https://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-fi...20180607-h1146z



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 13 2018, 08:10 PM
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Posts: 5,411
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 25 2018, 11:55 AM

From the previous post

QUOTE
we are concerned about buying into a recently put together company trading at peak earnings, especially when the previous owners of major assets that make up Coronado’s portfolio were happy to sell at lower prices.


Looks like those initial concerns were justified - CRN shares debuted at $3.80, 5% below the issue price of $4.00, fell as low as $3.66 and are currently trading @ $2.90.

Goldman Sachs - one of the joint lead managers in the IPO - recently released a research note and gave a $3.60 12 month target price

CLSA put a sell on CRN, along with a target of $2.40

Top 20 holders as at 26/10/2018 Composition : CDIs
Rank Name CDI equivalents %
1 CORONADO GROUP LLC 80.0% 773,081,036
2 HSBC CUSTODY NOMINEES (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED-GSCO ECA 38,998,824 4.0%
3 HSBC CUSTODY NOMINEES (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED 37,156,489 3.8%
4 MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA SECURITIES (NOMINEE) PTY LIMITED <NO 1 ACCOUNT> 20,145,402 2.1%
5 BRISPOT NOMINEES PTY LTD <HOUSE HEAD NOMINEE A/C> 13,930,611 1.4%
6 HSBC CUSTODY NOMINEES (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED - A/C 2 11,452,349 1.2%
7 J P MORGAN NOMINEES AUSTRALIA LIMITED 10,630,626 1.1%
8 CITICORP NOMINEES PTY LIMITED 8,278,091 0.9%
9 MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) NOMINEES PTY LIMITED 7,401,500 0.8%
10 CS THIRD NOMINEES PTY LIMITED <HSBC CUST NOM AU LTD 13 A/C> 5,372,364 0.6%
11 NATIONAL NOMINEES LIMITED 1,764,581 0.2%
12 BNP PARIBAS NOMINEES PTY LTD <AGENCY LENDING DRP A/C> 1,721,098 0.2%
13 MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) NOMINEES PTY LTD <NOM1 A/C> 1,647,082 0.2%
14 CS FOURTH NOMINEES PTY LIMITED <HSBC CUST NOM AU LTD 11 A/C> 1,231,133 0.1%
15 GURRAVEMBI INVESTMENTS PTY LTD 900,000 0.1%
16 TWYNAM AGRICULTURAL GROUP PTY LTD 750,000 0.1%
17 BERNE NO 132 NOMINEES PTY LTD <599694 A/C> 698,962 0.1%
18 UBS NOMINEES PTY LTD 597,709 0.1%
19 MR THOMAS FRITZ ENSMANN 500,000 0.1%
20 GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA & NOMINEE HOLDINGS PTY LTD <ACCUMULATION ENTREPOT A/C> 451,767 0.0%
Top 20 936,709,624 97.1%
Outside Top 20 29,807,296 2.9%
Total 966,516,920 100.0%
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 25 2018, 11:55 AM
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IPO Watch – Coronado Global Resources
HUGH DIVE View the contributor's profile page
Atlas Funds Management
QUOTE
We are generally pretty sceptical about new IPOs (initial public offerings). Occasionally, however, a great IPO comes along, either for a long-term investment or one with a high probability of making a short-term gain on its opening day, so it is always worthwhile to run the ruler over companies about to list on the ASX. In this week’s piece we are going to look at the seven key questions we ask when assessing an IPO and apply them to Coronado Global Resources (ASX: CRN). Coronado’s prospectus was one of the largest that I have ever seen – close to 700 pages – perhaps reflecting what is likely to be the biggest IPO in 2018 with an expected market capitalisation of between $3-4 billion.



QUOTE
Our take

Using a conservative coal price of around US$150/t, our modelling indicates that Coronado’s free cash flow will drop from around $400M today to around $180M, which would place Coronado on a yield of 5%, i.e. solid but unspectacular. Whilst we are comforted by vendor EMG retaining an 80% holding, we are concerned about buying into a recently put together company trading at peak earnings, especially when the previous owners of major assets that make up Coronado’s portfolio were happy to sell at lower prices. We will be passing up Coronado due to this concern and our inability to predict the metallurgical coal price in the near future. Additionally, with the last line of Ben Graham’s quote from above on IPO’s in mind, given the movement in the coal price over the past few years, it is hard not to take the view that October 2018 may represent a very favourable time for Coronado’s owners to be selling shares to Australian investors.


read more - https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/ipo-w...lobal-resources

"when the previous owners of major assets ..........were happy to sell at lower prices" - that's an issue I have with so many IPO's



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jun 8 2018, 03:31 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jun 8 2018, 02:52 PM

Prospa: The 'biggest float' of 2018 delayed indefinitely, as regulators investigate fintech loan contracts
extract
QUOTE
On Wednesday, it claimed the reason for the initial delay was so it could respond to some 11th-hour queries from the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC).

Prospa said the regulator's questions were about Prospa's "small business loan terms", given the "industry-wide review into financial services small business loan term".

However, ASIC's spokesperson denied the regulator was the cause of the hold-up and that it was Prospa's "voluntary" decision.

"Over the past 48 hours, Prospa has constructively engaged with ASIC to review its current loan terms and has provided detailed information in response to the regulator's queries," the company said in today's statement.

"Prospa is satisfied that the issues discussed with ASIC are not material to the IPO and no additional disclosure is required in the prospectus.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-08/pros...ection=business



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 


blacksheep
post Posted: Jun 8 2018, 02:52 PM
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Good to see someone/ASIC looking closer at these IPO's - from AFR

QUOTE
Prospa float postponed in 'best interest' of investors
James Eyers Jonathan Shapiro After a board meeting on Thursday night to consider whether to proceed with a listing after an intervention by ASIC, the directors of Prospa..


QUOTE
IPO hopeful Kleos Space cited expired patent in prospectus
William McInnes Kleos Space, the latest IPO hopeful, will make changes to its prospectus after it cited an expired patent in the document and attributed the error to an oversight.


Ouch!! Didn't the company conduct any due diligence?

QUOTE
The patent, UK No. GB2500786, was granted on July 22, 2014 by Kleos Space's parent company Magna Parva and was transferred to Kleos on November 13, 2017, nine months after it expired

A spokesperson for the UK Intellectual Property Office said that the owner of the patent hadn't renewed it, that the patent was currently not enforced, and that its protection ceased as of 27 February, 2017..

https://kleos.space/about/
http://www.spaceresources.public.lu/en.html



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: May 24 2018, 07:41 PM
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ASIC embarks on sweeping IPO, capital raising clampdown

QUOTE
The corporate regulator has fired a warning shot at stockbrokers over allocations of stock in initial public offerings and capital raisings, signalling it will make site visits and conduct reviews to ward against any favourable treatment of some investors.

http://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-fi...20180523-h10gzz



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: May 20 2018, 03:54 PM
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Posts: 5,411
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Creasy's new IPO - GAL

IGO not the only one taking a stake - Chris Ellison (MIN) and Rod Jones said to be taking a stake also

Independence looms for ASX-aspirant Galileo Mining
QUOTE
The listed miner is believed to have taken a stake worth just under the 5 per cent substantial mark, which is enough to ensure it can keep a close watch on the early-stage cobalt play without committing too much capital.

http://www.afr.com/street-talk/independenc...20180513-h0zzum

QUOTE
Galileo Mining is targeting exploration of cobalt-nickel laterite at its Norseman project and nickel-copper-cobalt sulphide mineralisation at its Fraser Range project.

Mr Creasy – a British-born mining engineer who famously sold the Bronzewing and Jundee gold deposits in Western Australia in 1994 for A$130 million – will be the company’s largest shareholder with a 31% stake in the company post-listing.

The Norseman project lies adjacent to the regional town of Norseman – approximately 720km east of Perth and 189km south of Kalgoorlie – in an infrastructure-rich area of Western Australia.

The project consists of a series of tenements comprising exploration and prospecting licences totalling 276.8 square kilometres in an area centred 13km west-northwest of Norseman.

The Fraser Range project covers two zones of the extensive, 400km long, Fraser Range geological belt which was proven prospective for nickel mineralisation with the 2012 discovery of the Nova-Bollinger nickel-copper-cobalt mine
.
https://smallcaps.com.au/mark-creasy-backed...ining-eyes-ipo/



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Apr 16 2018, 11:58 AM
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Posts: 5,411
Thanks: 2080


Interesting read from AFR's Johnny Shapiro on the proposed Evans Dixon IPO - good to see some journalists digging deeper and not just singing from companies own "hymn sheets"
Evans Dixon float highlights big fee take from US property fund
http://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-fi...20180412-h0yp41





--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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