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AVZ, AVZ MINERALS LIMITED
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 8 2019, 11:50 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jan 24 2019, 10:58 AM

Updated chart - SP broken through 4c - currently 3.8c
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This Hedgeye cartoon reminds me of AVZ holders
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 24 2019, 10:58 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jan 23 2019, 09:16 PM

QUOTE
AVZ Minerals Limited (ASX: AVZ) announces it is offering by way of a prospectus, a
Share Purchase Plan (“SPP”) to raise a minimum of A$5 million (up to a maximum of
A$10 million before costs) to advance its Manono Lithium and Tin Project (“Project”)
in the Democratic Republic of Congo (“DRC”) and for general working capital. The
SPP will afford the Company’s Eligible Shareholders the opportunity to participate
and support their Company.

The SPP will be underwritten to A$5 million by Patersons Securities Limited
(“Patersons”) which is acting as Lead Manager and Underwriter to the offer. The New
Shares (as defined below) will be issued at a 20% discount to the VWAP trading price
over the 5 trading days before the date of issue of the New Shares
and will only be
offered to Eligible Shareholders (as defined below) free of brokerage and fees.


QUOTE
Additionally, the Company has agreed that Patersons may facilitate an offer of New
Shares that may be issued to sophisticated investors at the same price as those
under the SPP (“Top-Up Placement”) to raise a further A$5 million (before costs).


The Monster of Monano delivers again - for advisers/SOI - pity about the current shareholders - thankfully I'm not one. Klaus Eckhof is one lucky former director to sell when he did last year - SP has been on a down hill journey ever since

QUOTE
Looks like Klaus Eckhofs decision to sell when he did (see below) was a good one

1. Off-market sale at $0.1700 per share
2. On-market sale at $0.1414 per share
3. On-market sale at $0.1447 per share
4. On-market sale at $0.1189 per share
5. On-market sale at $0.1216 per share


Expect Patersons will come out with a glowing report when the time is appropriate - they are due to receive 15m options in 3 tranches, within 3 months of completion of SPP

5 year chart shows the journey
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 23 2019, 09:16 PM
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Posts: 5,411
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In a TH until tomorrow - capital raise.

Last CR was @ 25c.

Currently the SP is 6.7c

Could get ugly when details known
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 17 2018, 12:13 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 9 2018, 09:14 PM

Another case of disappearing previously published material? - https://www.gbreports.com/interview/nigel-ferguson - "Whoops, looks like something went wrong."

QUOTE
Clarification of Global Business Report article

On 24 September 2018, the Global Business Report (“GBR”) included an article on
their website following a telephone interview with Mr Nigel Ferguson, Managing
Director of AVZ Minerals Limited (ASX: AVZ).

The article was a transposition of a telephone interview and Mr Ferguson was asked
a question in respect of potential offtake arrangements in addition to other
questions around funding. The content was written by an independent GBR business
journalist.

The GBR Article commented that AVZ could potentially raise funds at a premium to
share price, and a 20% offtake that would translate into a potential amount of
funding into the Company. The other funding option would be to sell half of the asset
and an example of the parameters of this potential value was included.

The Company would like to retract the references to potential offtake values and
potential sale values as the statements are not consistent with the detailed
disclosures required to form a reasonable basis for the comments made.

AVZ advises that investors should not rely on the retracted information included in
the GBR Article as a basis for any investment decision about AVZ shares.


The Company would like to advise that the MoUs signed with Guangzhou Tinci
Materials Technology Co and Beijing National Battery Technology Co in March 2018
remains intact and the Company is still in discussions with the respective parties on
potential investment and off-take opportunities from the Manono Lithium Project.


QUOTE
Please explain the basis for Mr Ferguson’s statement that a 20% offtake would translate into US$30
million and US$70 million and set out why this option was not addressed in the Scoping Study. In
answering this question you should have regard to ASIC RG 170.


The question was answered by Mr Ferguson in the context of 3 potential options being considered by
the Company to take the project into production, options consistent with the recent announcement
by AVZ relating to funding for the project and comments within the Scoping Study announcement on
9 October 2018. Mr. Ferguson did make a comment in relation to an option being explored of a
potential capital raising and offtake arrangement of 20% for a total of between say US$30 million to
US$70 million (to the best of his knowledge, Mr Ferguson did not use the word “and”), however this
comment was made based on what AVZ would like to achieve, it was not a definitive statement about
pricing nor an amount. Importantly, the comment was not that a “20% offtake would translate into
US$30 million and US$70 million”, the comment was considering an option of a funding package of
equity and offtake of 20% in that range.

In broad terms, the option of equity and to sell offtake has been included in the recent Scoping Study
release, as described in the section on “Project Funding”. This is set out below with an extract from
the release and our underlining to reflect the reference to the comments made in the interview:
• “A mix of debt, equity and off-take financing is the Company’s most likely funding model. AVZ
has an active ongoing dialogue with potential financing and investment partners and continues
to receive unsolicited expressions of interest with regard to assisting the Company with its
financing needs. These parties include substantial mining funds and companies including global
diversified Chinese companies, Chinese off-take parties and Sub Continent interests. AVZ still has
live MoU’s with Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co and Beijing National Battery
Technology Co that remain in discussion with AVZ on the project.
• The Company is also able to pursue other methods of value realisation to assist funding the
project, such as a partial sale of the asset, long term offtake and joint venture arrangements.
• The Company previously rejected funding based on providing off take of product being mindful
of the need for economic value to be ascribed to the project and the dilutive effect on
shareholders at that time. The Company can now engage in discussions with potential off-takers
for advanced funding based on securing long term off-take for product given the project
economics.
• Announcement of the project financial metrics in this report can now allow AVZ to advance
discussions with selected potential customers. AVZ believes these advances in the Manono
project firmly underpin a more favourable climate to engage with and conclude, binding off take
arrangements.“

Furthermore, and as also set out in the Scoping Study announced on 9 October 2018, the context of the
comment of US$30M to US$70M was based on several other companies within Australia, at a similar
stage in development having been successful in raising capital and selling offtake for similar amounts.
By way of example, Pilbara Minerals with funding of up to US$100M of debt and or prepayments from
Gangfeng Lithium and Great Wall and an equity arrangement with POSCO for A$80M, Kidman Resources
which entity has entered into offtake agreements with Tesla and earlier into a Joint Venture (“JV”) with
SQM whereby Kidman received US$25M and the JV received US$60M of funding, and Argosy Minerals
which entity has had several financings and offtake arrangements with Qingdao Qiabyun High Tec New
Material Co.

However, the statement made in relation to the potential offtake values is not consistent with the
detailed disclosures required to form a reasonable basis in accordance to ASIC RG 170.


Please explain the basis for Mr Ferguson’s statement AVZ could sell the northern half of the project
for US$250 million - US$350 million and set out why this option was not addressed in the Scoping
Study. In answering this question you should have regard to ASIC RG 170.


In terms of an additional comment about a further option being the potential sale of part of the
project, the selling price noted was purely as an example on a what if basis and was the posing the
question as “If AVZ could sell…then…”. That is, if for example half of the project could be sold for
US$250m – US$300m then the Company would be able to use those funds for the capital
expenditure, be debt free and shareholders would suffer no dilution.

Again, this was a possible option and was included in the recent Scoping Study release within the
section on “Project Financing” albeit, without the example figures. This is set out below with an
extract from the release and our underlining to reflect the reference to the comments made in the
interview:
• “The Company is also able to pursue other methods of value realisation to assist funding the
project, such as a partial sale of the asset, long term offtake and joint venture arrangements.
• Other companies at a similar stage in development have been able to raise similar amounts of
capital in recent capital raisings. This includes Galaxy Resources through the sale of a portion of
their Argentinian Salar del Hombre Muerto licences for US$280m to fund the remaining licences
and other operations within the group; Pilbara Minerals with funding of up to US$100M of debt
and or prepayments from Gangfeng Lithium and Great Wall and an equity arrangements with
POSCO for A$80M and Kidman Resources entered into offtake agreements with Tesla and earlier
into a Joint Venture (“JV”) with SQM whereby Kidman received US$25M and the JV received
US$60M of funding, and Argosy Minerals have had several financings and offtake arrangements
with Qingdao Qiabyun High Tec New Material Co.”

However, the statement made in relation to the potential sale values of the asset is not consistent
with the detailed disclosures required to form a reasonable basis in accordance to ASIC RG 170.

full set of Q&A's - https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20181017/pdf/...bbxhc72hv5v.pdf



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 12 2018, 09:07 PM
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Posts: 5,411
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 9 2018, 09:14 PM

QUOTE
On 9th October, AVZ Minerals released the results of its scoping study for the Manono project in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). This study outlines a project with the capacity to produce an average 440ktpa of 5.8% Li2O spodumene concentrate (or 63ktpa LCE contained in concentrate) over an initial 20-year mine life. Of the hard-rock projects analysed within Roskill’s Lithium Cost Service, Manono ranks as one of the best in terms of average resource grade and size. Furthermore, the stripping ratio outlined within the scoping study of 0.7:1 (waste rock to ore) is the lowest of all the open-pit hard-rock mines and projects analysed within the service.

The release of this scoping study highlights the quality of the Manono deposit. When it is benchmarked against the current population of lithium hard-rock mines and projects on a mine gate (

Roskill view:

As Oliver Heathman highlighted this week at Roskill’s LME Week, Breakfast at The Tower event, however, grade and stripping ratio are only two of the three key factors to consider when evaluating lithium hard-rock projects. Using analysis from Roskill’s Cost Modelling for Battery Raw Materials, he explained how the third key factor is geographic location, as transportation costs can quickly erode the overall economics of these projects. This is very much the case with Manono, given the sizable costs associated with moving concentrate some 2,050km from the DRC via truck, barge (across Lake Tanganyika) and rail (across Tanzania) to the port of Dar es Salaam, before presumably being shipped to China for refining. As a result, when these additional costs are considered, the project moves quickly up into the upper quartile of the cost curve.

https://roskill.com/news/lithium-manono-sco...ects-viability/



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 9 2018, 09:14 PM
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Posts: 5,411
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 9 2018, 06:50 PM

The Stockhead article has now mysteriously reappeared - can't say for sure but it now looks "different". I had it open to read later but didn't get the chance before it disappeared this afternoon. And it definitely disappeared - it's now out of the previous sequence. This suggests to me there was an issue with the previous wording

copy & past in case it does another vanishing act
AVZ toasts a ‘high-margin, long-life mining project’ from scoping study
19 hours ago | Special Report
QUOTE
Special report: A scoping study has highlighted the exceptional economics of AVZ Minerals’ Manono Lithium Project in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

In fact, the company (ASX:AVZ) told investors today the project is the largest undeveloped hard rock lithium project globally in terms of ‘grade, mine life and expandability.’

The independent study was undertaken by CPC Project Design (CPC) last month alongside independent economic model and financial analysis by Alan Dickson & Associates (ADA).

The study found that Case 1 of the Manono project (2 million tonnes per annum) would result in a net present value (NPV) of approximately $US1.6 Billion, with an estimated internal rate of return (IRR) of greater than approximately 90%, AVZ’s 60% share of the project is worth about approximately US$960 million.

Given the tier-one nature of Manono in terms of size, quality and homogeneity of resource, AVZ is currently working quickly to bring a 4Mtpa and 10Mtpa study for release to the market. AVZ will be particularly focussed on leveraging economies of scale and optimisation of proposed expenditures in the 4Mtpa and 10Mtpa studies to further improve on the excellent results already contained in the 2Mtpa study.

NPV and IRR are metrics used to assess the profitability of a project and these are outstanding results.

What’s next for Manono?

AVZ Minerals Managing Director Nigel Ferguson was confident that project economics could be improved further, as the company fast-tracks a full feasibility study for release in the second quarter of 2019.

“Especially in the areas of transport, processing, power costs (by utilising a refurbished hydro plant at Piana Mwanga), and the recovery of tin as a by-product – which can add considerable value to the bottom line and has not been included in any financial modelling,” he said.

He also added that there would be additional financial benefits in pursuing the 5-year tax concession offered by the DRC Government for “projects of significance.”

“Given that Manono is seen as a catalyst for investment in Tanganyika Province by local and federal Government representatives, we believe that we are well placed to achieve success in this matter.”

And Manano won’t remain a 2mtpa operation for long, according to Mr Ferguson.

“It is the company’s intention to self-fund further expansions from retained earnings, with the intention to achieve a globally dominant position in the lithium market place,” he said.

AVZ Minerals is a Stockhead advertiser.

This advice has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should, therefore, consider the appropriateness of the advice, in light of your own objectives, financial situation or needs, before acting on the advice. If this advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product, the recipient should obtain a disclosure document, a Product Disclosure Statement or an offer document (PDS) relating to the product and consider the PDS before making any decision about whether to acquire the product.




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: JSB  
 


blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 9 2018, 08:34 PM
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In Reply To: JSB's post @ Oct 9 2018, 04:39 PM

extract from ASX doc on forward looking statements
QUOTE
We give examples below of cases where we have not been satisfied about the existence of reasonable grounds for a forward-looking statement.

We consider there to have been insufficient consideration of the level of geological knowledge and confidence of the underlying mineral resources, in the following examples:

Example 1: A company has sought to base forward-looking statements solely on inferred mineral resources where these do not comply with ASX Listing Rule 5.16.6 and the first bullet point of section 8.7 of ASX Guidance Note 31.

Example 2: The proportion of inferred mineral resources to indicated mineral resources is too high and does not comply with section 8.5 of ASX Guidance Note 31, including that:

'…the reporting entity must be satisfied that the respective proportions of inferred mineral resources and the exploration target are not the determining factors in project viability. In addition, the inferred mineral resources and exploration target should not feature as a significant proportion early in the mine plan'.†

† See also ASX FAQ 24 (second last bullet point) (PDF 303KB).

https://asic.gov.au/regulatory-resources/ta...oking-statement

QUOTE
“Where a mining entity is reporting a production target that is based on a portion of inferred
mineral resources and/or an exploration target in addition to ore reserves and/or measured
and indicated mineral resources, the reporting entity must be satisfied that the respective
proportions of inferred mineral resources and the exploration target are not the determining
factors in project viability. In addition, the inferred mineral resources and exploration target
should not feature as a significant proportion early in the mine plan.”


https://www.asx.com.au/documents/asx-compli...h-checklist.pdf

Measured Resources (16.5%),
Indicated Resources (40.3%) and
Inferred Resources (43.17%)
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: JSB  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 9 2018, 06:50 PM
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Posts: 5,411
Thanks: 2080


In Reply To: JSB's post @ Oct 9 2018, 04:39 PM

As per my post below
QUOTE
Over on Stockhead - "a special report" on the SS issued by their "advertiser" AVZ appeared - note the time stamp


AVZ toasts a ‘high-margin, long-life mining project’ from scoping study
13 hours ago | Special Report


It seems that article I mentioned above has been removed from the Stockhead site. Perhaps ASX are monitoring Stockhead and saw the "timing" of the article versus the timing of the ASX ann?

QUOTE
Oops! That page can’t be found.

https://stockhead.com.au/resources/avz-toas...-scoping-study/



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: JSB  
 
JSB
post Posted: Oct 9 2018, 04:39 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 9 2018, 04:28 PM

Not sure 43.17% of a project can reliably be considered a "modest amount"! Especially when it contributes to the planned production profile every year biggrin.gif
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Said 'Thanks' for this post: blacksheep  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 9 2018, 04:28 PM
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In Reply To: JSB's post @ Oct 9 2018, 03:51 PM

Yes, seems like it JSB Not allowed as far as I am aware, but nice try biggrin.gif

On page 1
QUOTE
Cautionary Statements: Scoping Study Parameters
The Scoping Study referred to in this announcement has been undertaken
to determine financial aspects of potential future operations at the Manono
Lithium Project and to help drive future work programs. It is a preliminary
technical and economic study of the potential viability of the Manono Lithium
Project. It is based on low level technical and economic assessments that are
not sufficient to support the estimation of Ore Reserves. Further exploration
and evaluation work and appropriate studies are required before AVZ
Minerals Limited (AVZ) will be in a position to estimate any Ore Reserves or
to provide any assurance of an economic development case.

All costings and projections in financial modelling were prepared based on
Measured Resources (16.5%), Indicated Resources (40.3%) and Inferred
Resources (43.17%)as announced by AVZ on the 2nd August 20181

The Company has concluded that it has reasonable grounds for disclosing the
economic assessment or production target that includes a modest amount
of Inferred material.
However, there is a low level of geological confidence
associated with Inferred Mineral Resources and there is no certainty that
further exploration work will result in the determination of Measured or
Indicated Mineral Resources or that the production target or the economic
assessment will be realised. Furthermore, there is no certainty that further
exploration work will result in the conversion of Measured and Indicated
Mineral Resources to Proven and Probable Ore Reserves.




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: JSB  
 
 


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