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TLS, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 26 2019, 02:26 PM
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Telstra to win from Labor’s proposed NBN write-down

JP Morgan says the election of the Labor party at a May election could result in positive sentiment for the fixed telecom industry. This would be a reversal of the negative impact from the National Broadband Network (NBN) over the last four years.

In particular, JP Morgan says Telstra ((TLS)) would benefit if a Labor government writes down the value of the NBN.

For every 5% improvement in NBN margins over the three financial years from 2019-20 to 2022-23, the direct impact for Telstra is to add 0.9-1.3 cents a year to projected Earnings Per Share (EPS) and 0.8-1.2 cents a year to forecast Dividends Per Share (DPS).

https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/2019/02/2...-for-investors/
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=tls
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
early birds
post Posted: Feb 21 2019, 04:25 PM
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https://www.afr.com/technology/telstra-hint...y_Sent=21022019

Aggressive' approach
Interestingly, whatever 4G plan the customer signed up to for the Galaxy S10+ will be carried over onto Telstra 5G network at the same price, Telstra officials said.

Whether this meant that 5G was usually going to be billed at the same rate as 4G, or whether this offer represented an unusual discount on the yet-to-be-announced 5G rate, Telstra officials refused to say when questioned by The Australian Financial Review.

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a lot of technical stuff that i can't understand it. but looks TLS going to fight hard to get some mobile market back. games on!! tongue.gif

i hold it.



 
early birds
post Posted: Feb 15 2019, 03:31 PM
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large than usual volume last two session , and price move looked relatively well { after shity results}

seems it won't get back under 3.00 mark anytime soon. i might have to adjust my buying level.
still hold some, and try to buy more of it as i don't see any other things that i can manage the risk we are facing today. weirdsmiley.gif



 
kahuna1
post Posted: Feb 15 2019, 10:03 AM
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Howdy,

Out come the analysts reports, valuation is #2.80-2.90 from the ones I got. Share price has stopped for now going down !! Amazing what they are thinking when the head of TLS came out and in the AFR is saying they make NOTHING from reselling NBN plans. Not any motivation to sell them and even worse, the whole bunch is in the same place, selling NBN for no or little margins. As such, of course they are asking for a price rise so they can eat !!

On one hand if it occurs, the price rise, some profits, on the other not good for competition overall as it will make those with their own networks worth MORE. So I suppose I understand why TLS has stopped dropping for now, but its a bloody long way from any rise and a political nightmare already the whole NBN. Basically don't expect the price to rise any time soon as its a political football and we have an election coming.

Basically heads they loose tails they loose for the NBN and TLS the stupid hope of some price rise that NEVER EVER is going to occur until late 2019 if ever, is not a good risk.

Cheers

Mark K



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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  tombeet  
 
early birds
post Posted: Feb 15 2019, 08:22 AM
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https://www.afr.com/business/telecommunicat...y_Sent=15022019



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early birds
post Posted: Feb 15 2019, 08:21 AM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Feb 14 2019, 01:09 PM

hi K1
nice to see you gave a range for TLS ---2.80---3.20. i guess a lot of readers here will appreciate it. tongue.gif

i don't like the way they running this biz, but holly molly, who the hell am i to judge Andy?? tongue.gif

will stick to my gun ---buy this thing if it under 3.00 mark, and sell it when it close to 3.50. kinda think this is a defensive play for current uncertainty . IMHO though.



 


kahuna1
post Posted: Feb 14 2019, 01:09 PM
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Wow,

well, a long affair with this stock I have had. Hate it, love it, hate it and on and on it goes.T1 back in the dark ages like most government floats, a steal, then T3 was rubbish. Back in 2000 in a stupid tech boom ... up over $9- I think it stunk, and a long long wait till future fund stupidly dumped its holding at $2.60 ish and then, THEN NBN was a great deal with the 30 plus cents for along time fully franked at over 10% yield and then 13% with credits, one could NOT ignore it. I sold out, early, as I tend to do and amazed it went over 20% higher up over $6- whilst the NBN and underlying ground was evaporating.
...Now we are here, 2019. NBN is what it is, an expensive joke. Seriously a joke and the write-down the government is going to eat will make anyone cry. Technology advances and with mobile broadband in the middle of nowhere, by Telstra at 50 MBS v NBN not a hell of a lot faster and sucky coverage, TLS eventually will prevail. NOT for a while however !! I suspect at some stage NBN is taken over by TLS and the folly of a goverment run bureaucracy, called the NBN with incompetence in the extreme will be dumped as a bad joke. Even if this does NOT occur, the 5G v the 4G 50 MPS .... will soon be lightening fast 200 MBS plus and NBN a whiote elephant in many respects. For NOW, TLS in my opinion NOT a BUY.
... The rally when TPG or whomever it was that was going to build a mobile network pulled out was IDIOTIC. So so so stupid the market at times always amazes me. The stock impact, on TLS earnings was MINIMAL and the stock rallies over 10%.
...
For NOW, an opinion is that TLS struggles with dividend income and the price here even though its off 2% at 3.14 is STILL 10% too high. TELCO's are risky and at this price, at a 16 cent dividend IT SUCKS WIND. The rally from 2.80 to 3.20 was always stupid when this result was always on the cards and expected. UNTIL the share price represents a dividend close to 6% or $2.80, or LOWER I am not a fan and will just watch and wait.


Good Luck


Mark K



--------------------
All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  tombeet  rog  
 
early birds
post Posted: Feb 14 2019, 09:22 AM
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Telstra delivers HY19 results in line with guidance,
adds mobile services and shows progress against T22
• Total income, EBITDA and NPAT down year over year in line with the expected
nbn impact
• More than half of the impact of the nbn now absorbed with approximately 55 per
cent of premises connected
• Excluding the impact of the nbn, solid performance of the underlying business in
the current market
• 239,000 additional retail postpaid mobile services
• Mobile postpaid revenue growth of 2.1 per cent
• Underlying fixed costs down $162 million in 1H19, with around $900 million in cost
reductions achieved since FY16
• Consistent with dividend framework, total interim dividend of 8 cents per share
(fully franked)
===============

only 8cents ff divy. market dosen't like it. weirdsmiley.gif



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early birds
post Posted: Jan 29 2019, 11:07 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jan 29 2019, 07:25 PM

good work mick. hope gold can give some short term lift.
but seems gold stock often leads gold price { should be other way around}, unsure.gif

i try to staying TLS that can provides less risk as current trade war at cross road.



 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jan 29 2019, 07:25 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jan 29 2019, 11:24 AM

When I saw the 7% Jump, I just sold.
Didn't care about the reason, I was already 15% up from July last year, so I figured 22% was a pretty good return.
Will now start moving into some more gold stocks.
Mick



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