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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
early birds
post Posted: Yesterday, 09:35 AM
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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/24/heres-wall-...-20-summit.html

“This is fluid; surprises are not ruled out.”

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how many surprises we've had so far?????????????????? lmaosmiley.gif

strange world and stupid leaders plus silly central bankers we have these days. weirdsmiley.gif

read the link----it shows the "play book"



 
nipper
post Posted: Jun 24 2019, 09:38 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jun 24 2019, 09:07 AM

And above that, she says
QUOTE
"It's a strange time and this is why you always have to remember that markets are markets and there are always cycles to them. This is an extended cycle but it's still a cycle,"

- well, der. They're all saying that. The thing about timing is that we won't know until after the fact, that the market peaked. (and there's always a boom somewhere)



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  mullokintyre  
 
early birds
post Posted: Jun 24 2019, 09:07 AM
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https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/...y_Sent=24062019


With interest rates going lower globally you really have to think about businesses that will survive in tougher times and you really need to start considering balance sheets," says Lopez.

"Domestically we are at a point in time – it's been 28 years since our last recession – and we are starting to see the economic data weaken quite materially, whether that's gross domestic product or our anaemic wage inflation," she says.
That's coincided with a very indebted consumer which is deleveraging. They are not consuming. And that has to play out. So, as we move into this easing cycle of rates, my view is that the impact won't be as great as in previous cycles."

Timing is always the critical question," says Lopez. "I have no idea about when things will start unravelling or if and when the recession or slowdown happens."
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all with logic and rational then

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She has invested in some lesser-known Australian tech names, including cinema software group Vista and Serko – which provides the technology platform for travel firms such as Flight Centre.
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economic 101-----------------if like she predicted ---recession or slow down whatever
first few sectors gonna get hit really hard are ----travelers , retailers eg?????????? unsure.gif

may be i'm too harsh,


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early birds
post Posted: Jun 21 2019, 10:36 AM
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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-ar...w_theo_homepage

It’s worse. Much, much worse. What is? Everything, in terms of preparedness for the next U.S. recession.

Debt is higher than ever, be it corporate debt, government debt or global central banks’ balance sheets. Limited ammunition to deal with a new recession, wealth inequality, the social divisions and political extremes, and now trillion-dollar deficits — everything points to a more fragile system. On paper, low interest rates keep it all afloat, but the context is as ugly as it gets.

Here we are, with the great collapse unfolding in front of us. With Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee statement, we continued to witness an utter capitulation to market realities that are forcing central banks to commence new easing cycles. No, this is not a temporary rate-cut event they are promising; it’s a new cycle. The Federal Reserve offered a three-rate-cut outlook, which is precisely what markets had been pricing in. The Fed is bowing before market demands. Give us drugs. Yes, whatever you want, you got it.

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it's really similar to me and a lot of others view. but the shit part is ----markets keeps going up and up.... so ironic weirdsmiley.gif

please, take bit of your time to read this link. worth your 10 minutes imho.




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mullokintyre
post Posted: Jun 13 2019, 01:32 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jun 13 2019, 12:26 PM

Nip, the sharp decline in May Job ads may not be quite as bad as first thought.

From the ANZ commentary on the results:

Down but not Out

QUOTE
“Job ads were down sharply in May, which at face value points to a sharp slowing in employment growth. But we think there is a good reason why this decline is not representative of reality. Job ads plunged in the last week of April, which we think was due to the ‘holiday year’ effect that happens when ANZAC Day and Easter are close together. We think the run up to the federal election contributed further to delaying job postings. Consistent with this explanation, postings in the last week of May (ie after the election) were considerably higher than in the previous four weeks. If the last week of May is indicative, then job ads will rebound strongly in June.”


Next months data will confirm the slowdown or show a blip.

Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.

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mullokintyre
post Posted: Jun 13 2019, 01:25 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jun 13 2019, 12:26 PM

The labour force stats out this morning provide a mixed result.

from Bloombergs

QUOTE
Australian employment rose more than expected in May as the participation rate rose to a record, driven predominantly by part-time jobs.

Jobs rose 42,300 from April, compared with economists’ forecast of a 16,000 gain; the unemployment rate held at 5.2% versus an estimated 5.1%
Full-time positions climbed 2,400; part-time roles rose 39,800
Participation rate increased to a record-high 66%; est. 65.8%
Key Insights:
The May jobs report could have been impacted by the general election, which returned the center-right government in a shock result, as temporary staff were hired to help with the ballot
Australia’s central bank last week resumed interest-rate cuts -- after an almost three-year hiatus -- as it bids to drive the jobless rate down toward 4.5%, the new estimate of full employment. At that level, policy makers expect the economy to generate faster inflation.
In lowering the full employment estimate, Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe is following in the footsteps of other developed-world counterparts, who’ve had to wait for unemployment to fall to very low levels to spur wage growth.
Pushing Australia’s jobless rate down to 4.5% is likely to prove an uphill battle. The nation’s debt-laden households have hunkered down and cut spending as they grapple with stagnant wages and watch falling house prices erode their wealth
Australia’s labor market has held up well even as the economy slowed sharply. One explanation for the resilience is that much of the hiring is coming from government-related programs that are impervious to prevailing economic conditions

The jobs increase was higher than the "experts" expected (do they ever get it right??), but was tempered by the fact that most of the jobs created were part time.

Interestingly, Bloombergs suggest that some of the part time increase may have been due to the election requiring more bods.
As I went to my local polling place, I reckon I knew at least 75% of the employees. Most were either school teachers, or retirees.
Not sure how that fits in with the bloomberg posit.
The AUD fell 25 points after the announcement, so the market agrees that this is no a positive look.

Mick





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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 


nipper
post Posted: Jun 13 2019, 12:26 PM
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QUOTE
The steep decline in the job ads series can give us a bit more certainty that the good times in the unemployment market are behind us. That would confirm a general atmosphere of gloom around the Australian economy. The retail sector is already in recession, according to the NAB business survey. And the positive post-election vibes around the housing market seem to be wearing off too, with clearance rates slumping back down in the most recent weekend.

The RBA was, earlier this year, concerned about the “tension” it saw between everything else in the economy, which was bad, and the labour market, which it thought was good. The latest data shows that tension has gone utterly slack. The labour market is clearly worsening. (To be honest it was never as good as they believed, they just weren’t paying enough attention to wages and underemployment.)

The RBA used that tension as an excuse not to cut rates earlier. The recent developments in the labour market make that decision look rather foolish. You want to make rate cuts in advance of the problems cropping up, not afterwards, because they take time to have their effect. The RBA will probably spend the rest of the year scrambling to catch up by cutting interest rates at least one more time....

- that's the ANZ job ads, which is treated as a forward looking indicator. Not good for what's ahead, methinks.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jun 13 2019, 11:46 AM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Jun 13 2019, 08:24 AM

Agreed about it being a great read.
Loved this quote

QUOTE
Its yet another example of William Goldman’s truism that “Nobody knows anything.”


Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
nipper
post Posted: Jun 13 2019, 09:53 AM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Jun 13 2019, 08:24 AM

too true, triage.(great link, by the way)
QUOTE
As the chart shows, the markets are almost always wrong about future Fed action. This is not an outlier; markets are frequently wrong about all manner of embedded predictions as to future actions of all kinds, be they economic, profit-related, inflation, interest rate, etc.
So much for the wisdom of crowds.
- Newspolls and a recent election, maybe?



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
triage
post Posted: Jun 13 2019, 08:24 AM
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A good visualisation of why attempting to predict future events based on recent events can be a mug's game.


The way I read that graphic is not a single analyst was within a bull's roar of getting the end of June yield right and that the article also seems to make a false assumption that by the end of December some of those analyst predictions will not end up close to the mark. It may well be that yields recover from here (?).


Actually there is one analyst who totally broke from the pack but guessed the wrong way (if they'd got lucky and guessed the right way they'd be able to live off that lucky pick for years to come as the only analyst who got the yield call right in 2019).

https://ritholtz.com/2019/06/surprise-treasury-yield/




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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

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