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Gold, Discussion
joules mm1
post Posted: Sep 14 2019, 12:34 AM
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i have several stop-sells (STO) triggered already

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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 10 2019, 11:53 AM
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Zero hedge carry an interview with Greenspan.
Have not agreed with much he has done since he chaired the FED, but has an interesting take on gold.

From Zero Hedge

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During the interview, Greenspan focused on an interesting fundamental he thinks is driving both the bond and gold markets - the aging population. He said there has been a shift in time preferences as people recognize they will likely live longer and they will need to finance those longer lives. This, he says, is increasing the demand for hard assets like gold.

One of the reasons that the gold price is rising as fast as it is … that’s telling us essentially that people are hard resources which they know are going to have a value 20 years from now, or 30 years from now as they age, and they want to make sure they have the resources to keep themselves in place. That is a clearly fundamental force that is driving this.

Historically, gold has served as an inflation hedge and a wealth preserver. It makes sense that investors concerned about maintaining their savings well into the future would turn to gold. This is especially true given the likelihood of increasing inflation as the Federal Reserve continues to try to prop up the economy with low interest rates and quantitative easing.
Peter Schiff has said that eventually, the world will drown in an ocean of inflation.

Every central bank has bought into this nonsense that we must have inflation and that interest rates need to be negative. Inflation needs to be high enough to have real negative rates all over the globe. That’s where we are heading. So, if that is the case, people have no place to hide except gold and that is why they’re buying.”

Greenspan also talked about negative interest rates. He said the aging population is also one underlying factor in falling bond yields. An aging population is driving demand for bonds, pushing up the price and driving down yield. He says he eventually expects to see negative yields in the US.

You’re seeing it pretty much throughout the world. It’s only a matter of time before it’s more in the United States.”

There is now more than $15 trillion in negative-yielding debt globally. Greenspan said when there is a significant change in the attitude of the population, the “look for coupon.”

As a result of that, there’s a tendency to disregard the fact that that has an effect in the net interest rate that they receive.”

As far as the economy goes, Greenspan said it “seems to be sagging.”

Former Reagan OMB director David Stockman had another take on falling bond yields, saying recently that the bond market is in the “mother of all bubbles.”

What we’re seeing is rampant speculation in the bond market. Investors are banking on continued bond-buying by central banks. They believe this will continue to push prices up and they’re speculating on the rising prices. It’s nothing but a massive bond market bubble.”


Bill Bonner has another take on gold.

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In 1980, stocks traded at an all-time bottom, in gold terms, when you could buy all 30 Dow stocks for less than 2 ounces of gold. By 1999, they hit an all-time high, when it took 40 ounces.

In terms of time, the move was less dramatic – but it told the same story.

The average working man had to work about 100 hours to buy the Dow stocks in 1980. By 1999, he had to put in 821 hours.

It looked like the stock market was out of whack on both ends.

In 1980, stocks were too cheap. In 1999, they were too dear. But then, the stock market began a “correction.” The Nasdaq started to fall in January 2000. A year and a half later, it was down nearly 80% from its peak.

Measured in time, it took the average person 350 hours of labor to buy the Nasdaq in 1999. By mid-2001, it took only 85.

Meanwhile, the Dow industrials wiggle-waggled around after January 2000, but fell hard after the mortgage meltdown in 2008.

At the bottom, in March 2009, the average person could buy the Dow for about half as many hours of work as it cost him 1999.


Hence, its obvious to Bill that the DOW is wildly over priced, and is well due for a correction.
He goes on further to say

QUOTE
With the help of the late Dow Jones theorist Richard Russell, we began to see that stock and bond markets followed big, long-term patterns.

It took about 20-40 years for the stock market to complete a full cycle – top to top. The bond market took even longer. Scarcely anybody is still around who recalls the top of the last bull market in bonds. It happened in 1949; now, 70 years later, they’re hitting a new bubble high.

While we knew we couldn’t predict the markets, we began to see that we could spot major tops and bottoms by looking at prices in terms of gold.

The yellow metal is not perfect money. Like everything else in the natural world, it is subject to fits and furies. But it is still the most reliable money humans ever found. And over time, it does a fair job of telling us when things are out of whack.

This led to a very simple Capital Loss Avoidance System, which proved to be very effective for long-term capital preservation: Any time you can buy the Dow for less than 5 ounces of gold, you should buy all the stocks you can. Then, when the Dow goes over 15 ounces of gold, you should sell stocks, buy gold, and sit tight until stocks fall again.

The real beauty of it is that it doesn’t require any research or any pretense of knowledge.

A quick check sees the dow currently costing about 17 ounces of gold to buy the DOW.
So, one has to ask, based on this theory, is gold massively underpriced, or is the DOW massively overpriced.
It would seem its a bit of both, but with a greater fall in the DOW than a rise in gold on the cards.

Mick





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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.

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joules mm1
post Posted: Sep 10 2019, 10:51 AM
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$XAUUSD front month cfd broke 1502's very smoothly, bids have essentially dried up but shorters are not pressing the pedal down, yet

we should expect a puke sell at the low of this first leg down
and then a few days to weeks of resetting to allow bidders to catch their breath and buy the dip
the bounce is likely to be taudry and catch both sides out so patience is the key as we have not yet found a clear confirmation the
downtrend has resumed, at that point pricing should move swiftly
this pretty much somes up the 30 year T which display a smooth trend south too (so far)
there is no specific level i can site downside for either intstrument that we should aim for, there are plenty of

rotational ratios (swings against the trend) to use as resistance






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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price

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zac
post Posted: Sep 9 2019, 09:54 PM
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In Reply To: joules mm1's post @ Sep 9 2019, 06:38 PM

You're right. They are of no concern for long holders. Gold up over $5 atm

 
joules mm1
post Posted: Sep 9 2019, 06:38 PM
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In Reply To: zac's post @ Sep 7 2019, 11:47 AM

if you've clearly defined that youre still in a bull leg,
then these points wont be of concern
the auction is making you accept lower highs
the xauusd front month contract is printing -53 from the high, failed to hold the news whip, pros sold the strength
the COT clearly shows all hands to one side of the boat
there is no divergence between silver (and gold) selling from an impulsive high
last week printed an outside-down weekly bar
there is likely to be a lot of stops at 1500 psycho level, not to mention multiple M/A stops there
all of that in consideration; is it a buy the dip moment or a sell (confirmation) in the making ?
i am STO and looking to add on a break of 1502's in the front month contract



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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price

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zac
post Posted: Sep 7 2019, 11:47 AM
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In Reply To: joules mm1's post @ Sep 7 2019, 09:19 AM



Based on history, I expect to see $AU 50 fluctuations quite frequently on this bull run.

 


joules mm1
post Posted: Sep 7 2019, 09:19 AM
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the news whip merely allowed strong hands to distribute, the news couldnt even make the halfway retracement of

previous sessions sell down and silver took outs the equivalent low completing the sell signalgold also printed an outside down

daily signal in the dec contractxauusd cfd still register 62% bulls telling us the retail buying the dip, getting the never ending,

always giving, discount to a previous price ...
the contract extreme positioning tells me the STO bets are a better r/r than the BTO bets ...or when in doubt, stay out, STC
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sell to open, buy to open, sell to close



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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price

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joules mm1
post Posted: Sep 6 2019, 01:03 PM
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+
clearly silver in agreement with this mornings sell is way over stretched in the sentiment department as per my post last week, todays COT report is prob going to show extremes still hold for trend following manager and retail
but giving it room to move, risk profiled, small size until support levels give way to GMTFO trades that have too much on the BTO side

with the US equities and honkers/aussie 200 on the bid refusing the "sell everything coz a guru said so" team liquidity maybe
rotating back into faster equities rises ....afterall....who needs negative interest rates !!




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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Sep 6 2019, 12:58 PM
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gold ($XAUUSD)
took a decent whack this morning, still short on that looking for an attempted rotation north around 1502's but it'd have to go well into 1430's to signal a trend rotation back to a bear market has taken place
it is far more likely that money needs to wash out, a range bound topping process rather than an impulsive sell, even tho this mornings initial leg downlooks pretty solid from a STO point of view
2c
(i am also STO US30 year bond)
*STO = sell to open




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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 31 2019, 09:23 PM
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In Reply To: joules mm1's post @ Aug 31 2019, 05:03 PM

Yeah, but
QUOTE
punt on a set of ideas that have no endogenous nor intrinsic value
... nostalgia for the Gold Standard lingers on



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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