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dolor
Posted on: Jul 31 2013, 02:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 143

For three years, PPP have been looking for new opportunities to replace their rapidly diminishing Tui production. This latest quarterly states that their quest is still ongoing, while we shareholders hold and hold and hold. What a mistake that has proven with all that lost opportunity cost in other ventures. The directors have both massive holdings and cash monetery returns while they procrastinate and we vegetate. What to do?
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dolor
Posted on: Jun 28 2013, 09:43 AM


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Posts: 143

What a dismal record this company is compiling. Endless delays, failure to communicate with its shareholders, multiple failures, and a management that seems incapable of improving its credentials despite every attempt by interested parties to make progress. Tony Radford at 75 still hangs in there despite proof of his failings. What does it take to turn this company around to realize its potential? Success at current and imminent drills will help but it needs a cornerstone shareholder to move in and take over management. Any bidders?
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dolor
Posted on: May 24 2013, 01:36 PM


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Posts: 143

The D & M report on permit 0037 answers my previous query showing extension of the turbidite fan and greatly enhanced prospectivity as a result of the Walvis drill. The permit is now assessed as an 8+ billion oil prospect. All that is needed now is for a major to take 50% plus costs to date and a free first drill. Shouldn't be too difficult with Barry an honest well respected ceo who will certainly seek the best deal for shareholders. Can't wait! This is likely to be one amazing company within the next 2-3 years and I wish I had the cash to buy some more!
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dolor
Posted on: May 21 2013, 01:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 143

With PCL immediately north and also east of this well, how does the geolgy, depth, seismic, relate to any likely indicators for future prospectivity?
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dolor
Posted on: Feb 22 2013, 09:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 143

Thanks for the info and your optimism. I have been holding for upteen years and am still well behind but nevertheless ever hopeful on the basis of the many potential game breakers. With this better management the prospects are likely to be realised and despite the massive dilution my long term sizable investment should one day see me to retirement prosperity.
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dolor
Posted on: Nov 13 2012, 09:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 143

Sad that this has come to an end. The flagship of NZ biotech floundering on Chinese medling. A profound lesson to those seeking future ffunding, as exemplified here, with F & P, and Crafar farms. They want total control and are patient until this is achieved by fair means or by foul.
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dolor
Posted on: Sep 18 2012, 12:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 143

My Nov 2011 post has come to bear. When will this company come to its senses - common ones?
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dolor
Posted on: Mar 15 2012, 08:57 AM


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Posts: 143

Fortunately everybody ignores his rantings.
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dolor
Posted on: Jun 28 2011, 09:40 AM


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Posts: 143

The collapsed house of GEN has their AGM tomorrow. With directors up for confirmation there is a chance for announcement of activity. Will we see a closed and impenetrable edifice, an open door to a new collaboration and business venture with the Chinese, a futive back door entrance shrouded in mystery and intigue, or will this be a last dying gasp of impending demise? Surely the retention and costs of retaining dual listing must be indicative of ulterior purpose? Others must be of similar mind given the recent upsurge in price.
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dolor
Posted on: Jun 16 2011, 02:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 143

Latest venture into Tunisia seems an act of desparation - seeking redemption from the string of failures these past 3 years. Salisbury has made one bad decision after another and now the company is diversifying by shifting interest to the other side of the world, to an area of political and financial instability, where the co has no other personell, where adjacent oil pools are small, with a 5 year horizon to any potential find. Is this the hallmark of successful business practice? Seems time to abandon ship.
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dolor
Posted on: May 23 2011, 12:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 143

Something is afoot in this space, with Gen delaying the AGM while awaiting nomination for new directors. Any interest Plastic?
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dolor
Posted on: May 12 2011, 09:25 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 143

After searching for two years to find a new field and income source to supplement the declining Tui oil income, it seems odd that the co has been silent regarding Kaupokonui with NZOG seeking futher partners. Could it be that PPP are now shy of involvement with a team that has failed all too often of late, or are the terms too onerous for participation?
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dolor
Posted on: Apr 9 2011, 06:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 143

Still no news after 3 weeks of testing. What could possibly be happening other than technical difficulties as encountered in the first drill which precluded and conclusive flow data? The cumulative costs must now be very substantial and the only consolation might be that PPP only have to bear 5%. Sad that they have no control over events or news releases as the lack of reporting reflects badly on the company's standing in the Ausie market. Even if the well is a success the loss of support within the investing community is so great as to cause an almost irrevocable downgrade of the confidence in the board and administration. The solution? A merger or T/O with another oiler.
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dolor
Posted on: Mar 25 2011, 08:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 143

What could be happening with drill stem preparations in Viet Nam? Same message for the past week as though the team fell asleep on the job. Must have been the same team as those on the board. At this rate declining cash will be the only company movement.
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dolor
Posted on: Feb 25 2011, 01:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 143

Two years since the last post on NZO with only negative events to report. This co has been stumbling under the Radford factor with little or no control over virtually all its activities. Massive staff increases and endless 'we have many exciting plans for the future' have been all talk and no action. What with the run down of Tui, failed drills x 5, relinquishment of permits, the PPP fiasco and Pike River explosion, no partners willing or able to undertake new drilling, and now the cancellation of dividend despite good cash reserves, it's a wonder that there is even a semblance of any market. After holding for years I have lost any confidence whatsoever in this board and am selling down progressively. Previous good prospects have been destroyed by endless bad decisions. The only salvation would be a take-over - perhaps Todd, Contact, Mighty River, Infratil or an Ausie oiler. Shouldn't be too costly at this time with poo so high and cash in the kitty.
  Forum: NZX

dolor
Posted on: Jul 16 2010, 12:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 143

The problem with PCL is that the two principal shareholders and directors are using the resources of the company to maintain their life style and have done so for 10+ years. They obtain new funding every two years but as minor non operating participants in their permits, they are beholden to others for any action. Only in Malta did they hold control until Anadarko became involved and that too has now been lost. While 'the promised pot of gold' may yet materialise, we may not live long enough to reap the rewards. IMO this is now a trading stock rather than a long term investment option.
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dolor
Posted on: Jun 11 2010, 06:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 143

DG, I too have been in the higher echelons with you for a couple of years, seduced by the hype from ME, but up to now, let down by the realities and vagaries of oil exploration. When the 6mill options were granted to him my disappointment was such that I voted against the motion, perhaps emotionally driven rather than an analytical appraisal of their possible value to all holders. He is an ethical CEO it seems, so his motivation to work both for himself and all of us is a powerful incentive to succeed in his quest to find a joint venture partner. That he is working hard is unquestionable, that he might turn up trumps is still possible, so I shall hang on at least until early August, notwithstanding the Envoi Sept deadline which is too close for comfort. Hope springs from deep.
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dolor
Posted on: Dec 8 2009, 02:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 143

The surprise is not that sellers have dried up, but that it took so long for them to realise that too much is happeneing to let NZO go at what will prove to be cheap prices. Kupe is just commissioning with long term cash flows on the horizon, and Albacore drilling gives blue sky promise by new year. Loads of cash, Hoki and Tui to come. Is this is as good as oil exploration gets apart from elephant drilling?
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dolor
Posted on: Dec 8 2009, 12:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 143

What with Maari pumping furiously, Beibu on the move and PNG showing long term promise, my hunch is that HZN are perfectly placed in time and prospectivity for another mid sized oil co to take them over/merge to enhance future earnings. Risks are minimal apart from a further general economic downturn. Whatever way one looks this is a great longterm investment. For a novice like me a no brainer.
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dolor
Posted on: Dec 4 2009, 10:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 143

Not only that Ibyl, but we have exuberant bloggers on this site who have hyped this co for years against all odds, berating naysayers and denying their own failings in dispasionate investment decisions to their's and others detriment. Shame on all associated with MST's current and past failings.
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dolor
Posted on: Dec 3 2009, 01:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 143

Agree Towie, me thinks Plastic used the wrong mould when manufacturing his last post on PPP. Discedits his biotech babble too. On the other hand PPP have really fallen out of favour with their Vietnam fiasco thru no fault of their own. This is the first time Vn have ever called in their pre-emptive rights on any oil or mineral permit so they were caught on the hop. Seems Vietnam exports to USA have virtually disappeared leaving them scrambling for alternative income opportunities. Consequently the buyers market for PPP has also dried up despite the current and imminent prospectivity in the drilling of the Timor, Vietnam and Tui permits now under way. It may take a positive new find or a T/O suitor to regenerate interest in the stock. We should see a change over coming weeks/months.
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dolor
Posted on: Nov 19 2009, 07:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 143

Plastic, would you be able to give some TA projection as to the likely time frame for your 20c prediction for PPP.
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dolor
Posted on: Nov 12 2009, 01:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 143

How about trying some fundamental analysis first or you might just discredit the veracity of future postings.
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dolor
Posted on: Sep 23 2009, 06:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 143

Poor old PCL suffered over the past couple of years, what with Malta, Morocco, Namibia all collapsing prospects and cash in exceedingly short supply despite a couple of SP market offerings. Fortunately, there is now a renewed interest in the kenyan permits L8 and L6. Origin is the operator and if the 3D seismics reveal good drilling targets PCL will be free carried. They won't have the cash to pay even their share of Baniyas drilling in the mid 2010 programme, with barely enough to keep solvent over this period, so must hope for some action in Kenya prior to this for their survival. A takeover is most unlikely given the 30% of capital owned by two of the directors and the possibility of a dramatic 10x share price rise in the advent of even a modest find in either target. This recent surge in share price must be based on these two prospective drills even though both are at least 6 plus months away in any positive timeline development. Is the market maturing with investors taking a longer term view rather than the daytraders short term 'make a quick buck and move on' sentiment? If so we can look to a slow and steady build of share price over the next few months as accumulation proceeds. At around 5c prices the up side is dramatic - the downside negligible, given the time line proximity of company making developments. As always, the patient will win the day.
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dolor
Posted on: Aug 13 2009, 06:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 143

Warfie, this is probably a belated but deserved recognition of the balanced portfolio of known oil and gas fields in Australia, NZ and Viet Nam, together with large cash holdings and a sustained income stream. Plus the team is lean and mean preserving cash while awaiting further opportunities for M & A. IMHO it is unlikely that NZO are in pursuit at this time, having defaulted such action 6 months ago when the PPP directors foiled any larger acquisition. More likely this is a broker generated move in anticipation of further drilling around Tui and Viet Nam later in the year, each likely to add further reserves and/or new fields, as well as potential for Corvus as a huge gas resource in the longer term. These oilers don't come much better.
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dolor
Posted on: Jul 16 2009, 07:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 143

How right you are G. Volumes are rising with the SP and we seem to be on a new trend line after 4 years of steady decline. What with Stokes Bay still a possibility, Baniyas evolving and Kenya on the move, there is positive action ahead. It might still be 2010 before we see drilling but with resistance at about 5.5c there is room for some serious accumulation. I plan to hold for major gain, firstly in company developments, then in Sp, with involvement in a commercial find not too far down the line in at least one but possibly all three permits. Ultimate gains are likely to be in multiples rather than percentages provided the patient can hold tight.
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dolor
Posted on: Jun 9 2009, 11:41 AM


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Posts: 143

Must have defaulted on paying their bills - again. Frustrating isn't it when trying to make a deal.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

dolor
Posted on: May 12 2009, 09:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 143

Plenty of well considered conjecture-all viable options. What about the sharing of Horizon's Stanley gas fields in PNG which will need big cash to bring to fruition? Hzn have indicated their intention to find a cashed up partner. Perhaps combining with Rift and their adjacent gas field development plans.
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dolor
Posted on: May 5 2009, 12:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 143

Some of the current strength is a reflection of the large volumes and rising SP in NZ. While this may represent someone obtaining a strategic stake, the prospects for drilling in Q4 are exciting in themselves and could be a driver for long term buyers. My concern for the present is that a rapidly rising market for the oils has negated some of the buying potential that PPP cash holdings might have allowed. Any take over or permit sharing will now cost 10-15% more than it would have in March. A very expensive opportunity cost. This board has leaden feet!
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dolor
Posted on: May 1 2009, 04:16 PM


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Posts: 143

The attraction of PPP as a T/O target is its cash, projected cash from Tui, and blue sky prospectivity from possible adjoining oil pools to Tui. As NZO are so positive with regard to the adjoining fields one would have thought a pre emptive bid would have been forthcoming by now. Lack of further action indicates that the PPP board have been asking too high a premium - ?cum 50+c, hence their(NZO) oft repeated statement 'we are not going to overpay for assets'. Nevertheless it is surprising that a bid for shares around 40c has not materialised, as probably 50% of us smaller holders would accept, giving NZO at least a controlling interest for now. The other possibility is that NZO may have intended to use a share swap as the basis for a take over in order to preserve cash, and are therefore waiting until Kupe is on stream in order for a share price boost. Under their current 15% ownership any other suitor is probably out of the running.
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dolor
Posted on: Apr 28 2009, 09:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 143

Me thinks this is part of the end game. This co has no future with no commercial possibilities for years to come, no cash, declining staff, no chance of recuperating payments for Biojoule, and IP of dubious worth as their only asset. A one and only chance to be folded into some other entity by the end of June or it's bye bye Genesis.
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dolor
Posted on: Apr 16 2009, 11:29 AM


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Posts: 143

Dramatic evidence for treatment of drug resistant TB and possibly HIV/Aids has sent this stock into a spin with great volume and price escalation this week. It seems no one on the east coast is interested in this one, but there may be plenty of opportunity for those keen on entry while STI is still a penny stock.
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dolor
Posted on: Apr 3 2009, 04:03 PM


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Posts: 143

Stirling seems on the move with volumes up, price up 90%, and new product registration. Does this represent the start of a commercial future for this fledgling biotech? Anyone have the inside on this one?
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dolor
Posted on: Apr 2 2009, 04:55 PM


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Posts: 143

Puntland conflicts rage unabatted, constraining likely exploration for some time to come. This is really the highest possible risk for investment, awaiting the possibility of peace and social order for at least a year before any company is going to venture into these parts. See this review for the current state of affairs.
http://www.garoweonline.com/artman2/publis...ess_Story.shtml
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dolor
Posted on: Mar 15 2009, 03:42 AM


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Posts: 143

It is always sad to see a once vibrant, innovative incubator of ideas and promise reach the end of life, whether an individual or group of individuals as witnessed in Genesis. This was a flagship of biotech in NZ, much like NEU which is also near terminal and the atrociously managed Virionyx. Not only is this a commercial loss, but it will forever be the example offered to any potential new biotech IPO, limiting indigenous capital raising until such time as some other govt or university affiliated research reaches commercial maturity and international recognition. Venture capital investment and private angel investors will not likely embark on a startup biotech again in NZ for years to come. A loss for all concerned, researchers, national funding bodies, investors, and those pioneering entrepreuners who commit all their energies and reputations on the promise of commercial exploitation of scientific ideas. What can be learned from the mistakes that were made? Can anything be salvaged from the wreckage?
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dolor
Posted on: Mar 11 2009, 04:53 PM


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Posts: 143

Arty you are a wiz and we are indebted to you. No question that something is afoot, hopefully with the next week being the forerunner of new activity. However, many will take the opportunity to cash in on their gains, so some retrenchment is bound to occur. I am now fully loaded with this one, hoping to redress my losses on so many others. The mood seems to have changed with glimmers of positive news stimulating a return of cashed up investors to the market. E & P oiler consolidation next?
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dolor
Posted on: Mar 9 2009, 05:54 PM


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Posts: 143

hehttp://www.garoweonline.com/artman2/publish/Somalia_27/ Somalia_Oil_exploration_triggers_deadly_clan_battle_in_Puntland.
This deal looks ever murkier, convoluted and corrupted. Chances of progress look close to zero now.
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dolor
Posted on: Mar 8 2009, 07:10 AM


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Posts: 143

Arty, I am trying to read the tea leaves on this stock but have no experience with tecnical analysis. PPP seem in hibernation at a time of increasing cash reserves and possible company transition in some form. Can you use one of your clever graphs to give some indication of trend, demand, price/volume performance for us stalwarts.
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dolor
Posted on: Feb 25 2009, 02:30 PM


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Posts: 143

The consesus seems that its time for PPP to proceed with its own asset base expansion and ignore any NZO overtures. The share price is likely to hold steady or rise given that nervous sellers and cash strapped investors have already departed and the traders, speculators and small private investors have fled the market. Our board have lots of cash, expertise, motivation and shareholder support to use this towards an acquisition, permit agreement or merger, advancing company prospects beyond Tui or distant Carnarvon prospects. The current window of opportunity for favourable terms may be short lived if POO rebounds or the market takes a positive turn. As a long term holder I for one will email the board and offer encouragement for a bold initiative.
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dolor
Posted on: Feb 20 2009, 07:03 PM


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Posts: 143

At 1.1c today indicating little chance for any recovery. Is this the end of PCL as we know it? Where can Kennedy and Rutherford take it from here?
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dolor
Posted on: Feb 20 2009, 11:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 143

Support for PPP seems lost in the current market turmoil and cessation of NZO motivated purchases. With falling volumes and the SP heading back to the 28c resistance level, it will be interesting to see whether NZO resume buying up to their allowed 19.9% level. Failure to do so, would probably indicate a stalling in plans, enough to motivate PPP to rapidly embark on a new acquisition as reiterated in yesterdays announcement. The investment environment is probably optimal at present for a countercyclical oil company purchase. Another month or two and the opportunity may be lost. IMHO such a move might be better for shareholders than a slow drip takeover.
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dolor
Posted on: Jan 30 2009, 01:34 PM


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Posts: 143

With about $300 cash between them, NZO and PPP could mount a very substantial attack on a midsize E & P oiler and gain significant new production capabilities. HZN, TAP, CVN come to mind but there are probably half a dozen small caps that could be bundled into a new joint venture. How ambitious will the new directors be in advancing the special opportunities on offer?
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dolor
Posted on: Jan 27 2009, 12:07 PM


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Posts: 143

If there is a take over of PPP I would like to have NZO shares rather than cash as the preferred exchange. This would retain access to Tui, plus the possible adjacent extension providing continuing cash flow as well as new and longterm income from Kupe, add blue sky potential with the 40% Canterbury permit, and increased market recognition as NZO advances to the NZX top 10. This board and management can invest my money far more productively and securely that I ever could with my own meagre skill.
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dolor
Posted on: Jan 12 2009, 01:50 PM


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Posts: 143

In reply to: shovel on Monday 12/01/09 12:34pm

It seems the market is anticipating just this move and in the near future to boot. I had a large order running for a week but have now cancelled as the SP has passed my limit. Am now on the prowl for a new target and am in a quandry as what might be a good option. Are there any suggestions for a medium to long term holding. I never trade.
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dolor
Posted on: Jan 11 2009, 11:13 AM


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Posts: 143

In reply to: flower on Saturday 10/01/09 03:51pm

Interesting option for PPP as stated in the AGM is whether they will move to takeover a new target themselves while they have so much cash, or whether they will await the likely t/o from NZOG, which would ultimately consume the available monies to assist with the cash component of the NZO takeover. It may be a smart strategy for PPP to make a quick move, enhancing the value of their permits and reserves, so as to increase the capital value of the company, thus forcing a premium on any takeover offers for such to be successful.
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dolor
Posted on: Dec 23 2008, 10:01 AM


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Posts: 143

In reply to: bermuda on Tuesday 23/12/08 09:11am

Yep, NZO still picking up what they can when they can at these bargain prices. So much less to pay when the final whistle blows as it surely will sometime about Feb 09. There is absolutely no point for NZO to hang on to a minority interest of 20% because the cash assets cannot be utilised until full ownership is achieved. Once again the patient will be rewarded at the expense of the impatient. Why would small holders sell now unless they have need for immediate liquidity.
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dolor
Posted on: Dec 22 2008, 09:03 AM


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Posts: 143

In reply to: Zia on Monday 22/12/08 08:34am

Straw grasping desparation is what happens every time a seemingly positive statement is issued forth as buyers average down to bring repectability to their average purchase price. Having sucombed myself to one such event, only to watch the value decline 80% since, I remain totally sceptical of all such pronouncements and commentary on this site, believing that most is self serving posturing. Time will tell.
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dolor
Posted on: Dec 17 2008, 08:47 AM


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Posts: 143

In reply to: gulf on Wednesday 17/12/08 08:27am

Presumably a strategic holding is somewhere near 15%. What is the purpose? It could be an investment holding in its own right, with NZOG knowing a lot about prospects for 2009 in the Tui permit area. It may be more likely that it provides a platform for a formal takeover at a later date once the FIRB have given approval. At a more cynical level it may be an attempt by Tony Radford to pre-empt any possible moves by Tattersfield and Tompkinson to facilitate a take over which might otherwise procede without a blocking stake from anyone else. In any event buying 60million shares at 30c is just a bargain given the cash backing, 2P reserves, Carnarvon gas fields, and future Taranaki prospects. Just wish I had more.
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dolor
Posted on: Nov 4 2008, 01:18 PM


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Posts: 143

In reply to: albion on Monday 03/11/08 08:32am

Agree Albion that 33c looks like a near term prospect on all indicators. Purchase of another 150,000 shares on market by directors Tomkinson last week and Tatterfield's 8m last month, must be as positive as any inside indicators could be. With CEO Tom Prudence on the prowl for likely PPP investment and many small/medium exploration companies in need for renewed financing, the opportunities are ideal for new prospects with the likes of PPP being so cash rich and open for deals. But if they don't move in the next few months there won't
a) be good deals left where large holders would welcome overtures,
or
b) a take over will come from another Jap, Chinese, Brit, US or Ausie company.
Whichever prevales should be good for all shareholders, though my preference is for (b) so as to then open up new investment/income opportunities.
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dolor
Posted on: Oct 8 2008, 04:40 PM


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Posts: 143

In reply to: macduffy on Wednesday 08/10/08 02:41pm

What better ringing endorsement for PPP prospects than two directors buying another 9m shares on the open market. However, under ASX rules this means that no major developments are under consideration, otherwise a case of insider trading would be incurred. Nothing new can occur until after the AGM next month. Sent in my nay vote today against the proportional takeover provisions. Let the free market function as it should.
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dolor
Posted on: Oct 7 2008, 06:54 PM


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Posts: 143

In reply to: macduffy on Tuesday 07/10/08 02:34pm

Agree Mac. With so much cash, no debt, no major administrative overheads, continuing income, and with additional exploration prospects, this company is poised for only one of two possible scenarios. They are either taken over or controlled by some other O & G entity as a long term investment(notwithstanding the current silly attempt to keep a predator at bay), or the directors pursue another exploration/production company using their rare cash resources, to advance and diversify PPP production prospects into the long term. One has to accept the conservatism, patience and reticence of the chairman as a part of the package, but he has proven himself as honourable, ultimately serving all shareholders. Just do as the major shareholders have done in recent days, buy more shares at bargain prices and wait. It may take another 3-4 months, but current turmoil only advances our prospects all the more.
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dolor
Posted on: Jun 6 2008, 02:20 PM


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Posts: 143

In reply to: diana on Friday 06/06/08 12:02pm

Thanks for the info Diana and soJ88. I did some further reading and like you feel that the sovereign, social and geograhic risks have been adressed as well as can be reasonably expected in this unstable region. Only time will tell, but I ventured into Puntland with a parcel representing 2% of my investments at a price of 18.5c. RRS has to be my wildest "Punt" yet, but as is my modus operandi, a wait of 3 years with this portfolio weighting is my way of minimising risk.
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dolor
Posted on: May 28 2008, 03:43 PM


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Posts: 143

In reply to: 34232 on Wednesday 28/05/08 01:33pm

Watching regularly to buy in quantity, but have real difficulty assessing the sovereign risks. What are the likely scenarios pre drill or post drill if oil is found. As all oil exploration has a 1:10 chance of positive discovery it may be possible to value RRS against others by quantifying sovereign:discovery comparitive ratios to give some risk:reward potential. Anyone with more than a passing acquaintance with both aspects brave enough to give this a go?
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dolor
Posted on: May 19 2008, 04:04 PM


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Posts: 143

In reply to: inspector on Monday 19/05/08 03:27pm

With you all the way big I. IMO there will be action one of two ways within the next couple of months. Either they will be taken out by another oiler, using PPP's own cash flow to consumate the deal, or PPP will use the cash for a T/O themselves to increase 2P reserves for the longer term, notwithstanding the likely development of Maitland and then Corvus for the really longer prospects. What a future this co has!
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dolor
Posted on: May 14 2008, 07:58 PM


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Posts: 143

High volumes of both oppies and heads would suggest institutional buying, but sellers seem keen to take profits rather than hold for the Tui upgrade, Momoho drill, and new permit applications concluding end of May. Selling into a rising market implies these are perhaps naive investors while the pros hang in there for the longer term. Todays announcement of the transfer of their manager of geophysics Stephan Kleffman to Otto, at a time of such success, makes one wonder if there has been a personality clash within the company.
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dolor
Posted on: Apr 22 2008, 06:41 AM


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Posts: 143

In reply to: King Baz on Monday 21/04/08 11:16pm

In total agreement KB and invested heavily some years back on the same prospects but show a 50% paper loss at present. Despite the promise, they have lost all management and scientific staff and have essentially run out of money. Where to from here? I suggested to PPP that this might be a vehicle for their long term investment plans but they too have no technical or management personell. The other option is for Kennedy to use his NWE base to take out PCL if their own North Sea and Puffin prospects give a much needed boost to the NWE SP. Failing these or similar alternative options, we can but wait for Kenya to mature with an accompanying share price appreciation which would justify another round of share/option sales.
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dolor
Posted on: Mar 31 2008, 07:11 PM


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Posts: 143

In reply to: chimera on Monday 31/03/08 06:02pm

You might be right but a little too harsh on the internal skill set of the PPP board. They are investment specialists in petroleum and exploration ventures rather than hands on geological professionals. None of them have the time, energy or inclination to hit the road touting the attributes of the company or to seek new exploration permits. Instead they will sit tight awaiting promising farmin deals. Past dealings with the likes of AWE, Origin/Contact, TAP, Apache, OMV, NZOG, or even Caspian(Mike Sandy), would suggest that future partnerships might somehow involve these same participants in familiar areas such as Taranaki, Carnavon, Canterbury and/or Gt South basin. It also seems likely that new ventures will be spread across 2-3 prospects over a 2-3 year time scale to lessen risks. With Maitland and Corvus as potential commercial fields for a 5 year plan, they might also want to hold some cash in reserve for their retention of rights to these leases. In the absence of any M & A activity, this would be a constructive and responsible strategy for the board, given their lack of supportive management and scietific staff. Otherwise it's packup and pass the purse. In any of these three scenarios we shareholders will be well rewarded - IMHO it's just a matter of patience and recognising the psycholgy and skill set of our 3 leaders.
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dolor
Posted on: Mar 16 2008, 02:10 PM


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In reply to: NMR on Saturday 15/03/08 05:31pm

Among the many strategies they could employ, the more likely option is to use cash to join another exploration company with top rated prospects and a good team but who are very short on cash. The ability to raise new monies for exploration must be so limited at present that good terms should be easy to come by. For each 1% contribution, 2% entitlement - drilling late 08. Consultants could provide options for the board to make their choice, so I'm hanging in until mid July for a decision. Still like Comet Ridge.
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dolor
Posted on: Mar 13 2008, 05:07 PM


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MST = momentous sliding trajectory = mostly slow torture.
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dolor
Posted on: Mar 6 2008, 08:08 PM


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In reply to: chimera on Thursday 06/03/08 04:20pm

Chimera, that was exactly the action that a group of us took to get Tattersfield and Tomkinson involved, but so far to no avail. Progress has been in day to day fulfillment of Tui obligations and drilling in the Carnavon as minority holders, but there is no apparent long term stratergy, no management or business plan, no succession, no communication directly to shareholders other than the mandated exchange notifications. Radfordesque epitomised, but one can't question his ultimate execution of the NZOG success so lets give him a few more months to reveal his hand with PPP. After all the board have a huge vested interest in securing a profitable outcome.
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dolor
Posted on: Mar 6 2008, 07:55 PM


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In reply to: Zia on Thursday 06/03/08 07:09pm

Nevertheless the share price plunge continues unabated.
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dolor
Posted on: Mar 5 2008, 01:15 PM


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In reply to: CJS_fromNSW on Tuesday 04/03/08 05:27pm

Endless, mindless, useless chat typifies this topic while the share price diminishes linearly.
Nothing has progressed in years except the banal technical posts that have only supported the egos and enthusiasm of the technophiles who keep up a constant barrage of informed but irrelevant chatter. The only thing that matters is the conferring of a major contract which has been mooted for the past 5 years. Fortunes have been lost while the fire burns.
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dolor
Posted on: Mar 5 2008, 01:07 PM


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In reply to: Bazza on Tuesday 04/03/08 05:47pm

Nothing! The safe has been crammed full but we have to wait while Radford digs up a good deal. While he might be good at negotiating, it seems a bit tight fisted to hang on to the lot with so much in the bank - like the Govt. the board seem to think they can use money better than we can.
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dolor
Posted on: Mar 1 2008, 06:07 AM


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In reply to: Bazza on Friday 29/02/08 08:08pm

Most likely is a new initiative in the form of divy or buyback or both. With directors spread from Perth to Sydney to Auckland, a conference call for next week would be needed to put the final touches to such a proposal. Perhaps a 50/50 call on this with a SP to Au28c by Frid.
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dolor
Posted on: Feb 12 2008, 06:15 AM


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In reply to: plastic on Monday 11/02/08 05:02pm

Hi Plastic, your worst fears are the case. I asked the same question at the EGM and the reply was that the IP has been included with the Biojoule sale. The only remaining question is whether the deal has been concluded yet as there was a proviso that it still required full board approval.
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dolor
Posted on: Feb 8 2008, 05:49 AM


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In reply to: Pub Lunch Man on Wednesday 16/01/08 01:31pm

Hi PLM, I've been waiting for three years for exactly the same with no progress, apart from my investment being 50% less than when I started. That's painful!
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dolor
Posted on: Feb 6 2008, 05:55 PM


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In reply to: Dutchy on Sunday 06/01/08 03:43pm

Dutchy, after 1 month the losses continue and the graph must be looking decidedly grim. What's your outlook from here?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

dolor
Posted on: Feb 1 2008, 05:56 AM


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Posts: 143

In reply to: pheonix on Thursday 31/01/08 11:04pm

Radford is notorious for not responding to shareholders queries, even major holders with percentage holdings. He has a 25 year history of this behaviour with NZOG and is not likely to change. The PPP board is small and really there as trustees rather than true blue oilers, with each holding major interests in their own right. We can be assured that they too will want to see the maximum return for their multimillion hodings. All that we need to do is be patient. My guess is that some major development will be announced by midyear.
HOLD TIGHT - DON'T SELL! The pain is soon to be relieved.
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dolor
Posted on: Jan 31 2008, 04:01 PM


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In reply to: tcisboss on Thursday 31/01/08 11:43am

Have suggested Comet Ridge and First Australian to the powers that be, but no real response except to say they are actively looking at opportunities.
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dolor
Posted on: Jan 21 2008, 04:03 PM


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In reply to: Twobees on Monday 21/01/08 03:38pm

The positive features have been plain for all to see, but the lingering limitation to further acceptance and appreciation in the market is the repeated failings of management. No one in the investment world has confidence in the chairman. He has for years over promised while neglecting meaningful contact with shareholders. He treats us as a nuisance only to be appeased at the time of the AGM. He never replies to shareholder enquiries at other times much to our chagrin. The new CEO has been in office for 9 months with nothing new to show other than a slew of promisies about expansion, acquisition, value enhancement, option fulfillment, and other Radford cliches which he too has acquired.
Time for action - words are not enough, as the share price demonstrates. We investors and market professionals know when to give plaudits when due. It is not yet time!
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dolor
Posted on: Dec 21 2007, 06:16 PM


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In reply to: kajdes on Friday 21/12/07 08:43am

Oh how it hurts! Does one have to suffer so much for so long to make a buck?
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dolor
Posted on: Dec 14 2007, 12:39 PM


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In reply to: wasabibarako on Friday 14/12/07 09:25am

Directors hold 30% of the shares. Nothing moves!
Oh the pain!
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dolor
Posted on: Dec 14 2007, 04:10 AM


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In reply to: molics on Friday 14/12/07 01:10am

Why Buy? This lot are on a lifestyle roller coaster ride at shareholders expense.
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dolor
Posted on: Dec 13 2007, 02:46 PM


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In reply to: towie on Thursday 13/12/07 02:27pm

Towie I wrote to AWE and TAP months ago pointing out the benefits to each of a PPP take over. Nothing has changed, nothing has happened.
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dolor
Posted on: Dec 13 2007, 01:02 PM


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In reply to: plastic on Thursday 13/12/07 11:22am

I suspect you are close to the mark. With so much progress is their selective RNA interference and the potential clinical expansion of this science platform, the company are assuredly on the verge of real progress. They also recognise the importance of their role as leaders of the NZ biotech sector such that any announcements will be certainties rather than wishful conjecture. As always its timing and time in the market, so I made the move and bought this weeks slab. Hopefully not the pain of some of my other high risk ventures.
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dolor
Posted on: Dec 11 2007, 10:14 AM


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In reply to: albion on Tuesday 11/12/07 09:09am

Volume speaks more than price. With buying interest renewed, this looks more like institutional action rather than the much discussed take over option. Its a no lose scenario for buyers at these prices and one wonders why so many trading - short term profit takers are so willing to sell with the huge buying interest. Investment psychology is a fascinating topic. If only we could fortell the mood swings!
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dolor
Posted on: Dec 11 2007, 08:21 AM


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In reply to: tban_mccann on Monday 10/12/07 11:42pm

Hype, Hope and Hyperbole! The hallmark of this site has unfortunately been my downfall as I sat, watched and waited, before making an ill judged deep plunge. Still the price crashes, the inane chatter continues and still the company silence. Indeed a severe lesson learned the hard way in this unforgiving market. To wait or to sell, that is the question.
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dolor
Posted on: Dec 6 2007, 09:22 AM


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In reply to: Commander C on Wednesday 21/11/07 10:38pm

Well CC, the market has made its assessment. Below 4c and likely to continue this precipitous fall until such time as major positive news is released. As predicted the AGM was a non event other than the board admitting they were deep in the poo (wrong organic content though). If I dump my lump on the market in the next few weeks, we can look to a price of 3c, which might still be worth my while given the opportunity costs in waiting - waiting for this lot to do something, unlikely given that they have nothing to show for the last 2 1/2 years since I bought. Bad move.
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dolor
Posted on: Nov 23 2007, 04:29 PM


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In reply to: albion on Friday 23/11/07 01:17pm

In this case, market sentiment is greatly influenced by the perceived (in)competence of the board and chairman. I say perceived because reality suggests they have achieved all that could be reasonably expected. This behaviour drives many shareholders to sell on each rise in SP because holders are not sufficiently trusting of management to deliver further gains. Until such time as sentiment changes, for whatever reason, it seems unlikely that NZOG will achieve the market rating that more professional investors are bestowing on the company's prospects.
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dolor
Posted on: Nov 23 2007, 01:37 PM


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In reply to: jane007wang on Friday 23/11/07 01:25pm

Jane, your numbers are somewhat shy of current returns. Chris Roberts from NZOG, has stated today that with costs of NZ$15 per barrel from Tui, their return is NZ$120 at current Tapis prices over US$100. That is 3X your figure and gives PPP return at similar multiples when calculated in A$. Makes PPP share price 'a bit low really'.
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dolor
Posted on: Nov 21 2007, 02:01 PM


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In reply to: King Baz on Tuesday 06/11/07 05:04pm

KB, your depth of knowledge and judgement are profound. However, the company is floundering to such an extent that it has lost all sharemarket credibility. It is unlikely that they can raise more money from we hapless shareholders. Not only is the price declining steadily, the dilution alone has reduced individual values by a further 40% while the board and management have continued to use us to support their global and agricultural lifestyles. All promise and no delivery. Kenya looks as remote as ever with a best chance strike of 1:15 judging by Woodside's actions and all the other prospects are nothing but pie in the sky. All the company can do is farm down to such an extent that our holdings will again be reduced to pitiful penny stock rating. John Campbell would be foolish to delve into this stock even at the low prices he is contemplating.
Platitudes and promises will again prevail at the AGM, with the usual muted passiveness of shareholders who are unlikely or unwilling to issue the real challenges that are needed to stir the board away from their troughs. Who will rise to the occasion. Sadly I can't make the trip.
Oh the pain and how it hurts!
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dolor
Posted on: Nov 21 2007, 09:18 AM


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In reply to: Wargfang on Wednesday 21/11/07 08:11am

Yes Wf, your scenario is close to my own assessment. The share holdings are consolidating after the big selldown consequent to the Hector duster and the short term holders are nearly sold out. Being cash rich, offers endless options for the months ahead and Sharescene posters should not get ahead of themselves in pushing for ill considered action. The alternatives for a post Tui expansion for the future business plan might include:
Waiting, which = cash = opportunity = ?Maitland permit increase and new development.
Share buy back = short term gain = no downside for all involved = less $ for E & P.
New farmins - preferably Carnarvon and /or Taranaki where PPP have their interests.
Merger with a cash strapped explorer holding promising permits e.g. PCL COI.
Promote a friendly Take Over. Board hold all the cards and could solicit bids.
Seek a new board and ceo with hands-on oil experience to lift PPP with renewed focus.
The only remaining requirement is time, maybe 6 months.
In the end, gain will follow the pain.
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dolor
Posted on: Nov 7 2007, 05:15 PM


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In reply to: albion on Wednesday 07/11/07 07:49am

Another option would be to take over a company with good exploration potential but short on cash. PCL with its pathetic management and increasing loss of market support would be a good case in point. Unfortunately management hold over 30% and would be better bed mates with NWE, but that is the sort of scenario that might give PPP both direction and inherited management expertise.

Investment in oil E & P means pain before gain.
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dolor
Posted on: Nov 6 2007, 04:57 PM


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Posts: 143

In reply to: Commander C on Tuesday 06/11/07 02:27pm

Hi CC. Battrick at least had the sense to get out before he became tarred with the same brush as the board. I didn't have the knowledge to do the same at a propitious time and am now encumbered with a truely burdensome parcel. I did at least vote against all the self serving self rewarding exploitive motions offered by the board for the AGM. If only we could muster shareholder activism it might be possible to make the board more accountable to their paymasters and stop them treating us as their lifestyle funders, farmers and globetrotters all. They have taken no decisions in 2 years other than appointing the ceo who now resigns! The share price languishes at the same level as 3 years ago as well as diluting individual holdings by about 40% with fruitless capital raisings. Enough, the plunder must be stopped!

Will there ever be a gain for the pain?
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dolor
Posted on: Oct 10 2007, 04:32 PM


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Posts: 143

In reply to: chimera on Wednesday 10/10/07 09:19am

The problem with NZO lies in the inability of the chairman to communicate adequately with shareholders and the investing market in general. He is a very particular accountant who jealously protects the balance sheet and is forever fearful of any predator who might sneak up on the company and take control. This makes him secretive on detail and something of a control nut. Dissent on the board is not accepted, conferring control on both tenure and board behaviour. All this has created negativity in market perception, to which is added the loss of credibility consequent to over promising on past exploration. Despite this loss of confidence and consequent default of institutional fund support, the company have behaved perfectly ethically and will soon reap the rewards of 3 excellent energy projects. Those investors alienated by past failings have for the most part sold out, though it must be noted that 5 patient individuals with quite large holdings might still threaten the price with any overhang should they too become disillusioned. We now await the next phase of NZO maturing to a cash rich, productive oil/gas/coal producer when almost certainly a new wave of investors will become the dominant force on the share registry. The speculative blue sky traders are fast fading.
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dolor
Posted on: Oct 4 2007, 01:02 PM


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Absolutely the biggest sleeper in Ausie oil exploration, having done nothing in 2 years. Mathew Battrick the new CEO has been on the job for 6 months with nothing to show for his efforts. Not that he is new in the company, so it looks like we are in for more of the same. Cash has almost run out and if Stokes Bay is a duster their chance of finding willing contributors to their welfare fund looks pretty slim. My holding owes me heaps in absolute terms and in lost opportunity costs, so am really despondent. I either sell my 7 figure holdings, forcing the price down further or wait for NWE to make an offer to consolidate the two sister companies. Another two weeks and its decision time! Any suggestions from others in the same heap of s---.
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dolor
Posted on: Aug 20 2007, 07:12 PM


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In reply to: Right_for_me on Monday 20/08/07 06:29pm

These figures make so much sense for an AWE T/O that one wonders why they don't make an early raid to block any likely predator while working towards board negotiations and approval. With a scrip offer of 1:10 plus a little added cash sweetener, they could purchase PPP to achieve near twice the earnings per share that they receive from their current Taranaki earnings. Corvus, Tusk, Sage and Bricklanding would be saleable assets or reserves for later development. As PPP are essentially a holding company without expensive overheads, there would be little cost in admin transfer. Also, management and directors are not younger professional company directors with commercial expansionary ambitions, so they would probably welcome an offer which at the same time provided participation in the same oil fields with added prospects of new discoveries. The need for a 90% plus approval will demand a generous offer. Perhaps Albion with his access to current shareholder transfers could keep us abreast of any early purchases that might foreshaddow pre-emptive moves.
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dolor
Posted on: Aug 10 2007, 03:01 PM


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In reply to: gwydir on Friday 10/08/07 02:21pm

You're right G, so much big money that it looks like a corporate play rather than traders. $12+million today alone. Thinking out aloud, who has recently come into money without having a prospective drilling programme? Who needs to expend their oil prospects and can afford to do so now? TAP? PPP? Any other suggestions?
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dolor
Posted on: Aug 7 2007, 03:04 PM


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NZO uncharacteristically quiet after negative Hector announcement and price slump. More recent buyers following the blatant ramping, pumping and hype from self serving posters have learnt a hard lesson in the vagaries of the market. Those who bought early and are in for the long haul have nothing to fear. As always, the impatient transfer their wealth to the patient, but well done to those who followed the maxim 'sell before spud'. Still, the F sands and Taranui mean all blue sky is not lost, just covered in cloud.
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dolor
Posted on: Jul 5 2007, 05:33 PM


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Ask AWE, its based on their assessment of the field prospects with PPP having 14%.
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dolor
Posted on: Jul 5 2007, 03:29 PM


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In reply to: nizar on Thursday 05/07/07 02:49pm

We do have a risk adjusted value of 58c from Peter Strachan in this week's Stock Analysis, so that gives some guide as to a potential price target. However the rapid price hike and huge volumes going through over the past week must have some other explanation. What could be driving the momentum?
1. Imminent production now allows investment funds to purchase shares which they were not able to do for an exploration company.
2. The rising price of oil is driving long term investors to look at resource stocks as part of any investment portfolio.
3. The likely full takeup of options has removed a drag on the head shares which were constrained by the freely traded options.
4. Rumours of a possible take over have persisted but the more likely scenario now, with a more realistic share price, is some form of merger. However if the POO continues to rise then any TO can still be funded from cash flow.
5. Insider buying and option conversion by the two directors and principle holders gives enormous confidence to the companie's longer term prospects.
6. Hector's potential which includes Hector South is so huge that a positive oil strike within the next 6 weeks is going to send the SP into stratopheric levels. Strachan predicts $6 a share with PPP having the best leverage of the three listed companies involved.
7. Intersuise and probably other brokers are joining the fray, having missed the early moves but add to the current buying strength..
8. Taranui will underpin some of the speculative momentum from Hector, as this and a likely reserve upgrade, will hold the price around current levels even if Hector fails.
9. Revelations in the new top 20 which should be accessible next week are likely to reveal the true driving force for the current surge. It is likely that new substantial shareholders will be on the register giving some guide as to future directions for PPP, even if they only reveal a couple of stabilising investors who could add further expertise to the board and management. After all, PPP are really a holding company rather than a true exploration company with no in house expertise.
10. Money in the bank will keep sellers coming so we can expect a little volatility but those with patience are likely to be well rewarded. Come on September!
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dolor
Posted on: Jun 25 2007, 01:05 PM


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A pleasant concern for PPP is the large cash accumulation that will flow as from next month with the options being exercised and oil revenues coming from Tui. All borrowings will be paid before the end of the year, leaving us all very vulnerable to a take over that could be easily funded from ongoing cash flow. At least the Hector equation will be known before any action could be underway, but if the drill is a dud and the price falls at all, there will be cheap pickings for any suitor. They are cheap now on the basis of their long term enterprise value. Perhaps the co. could pre-empt the market conjecture by indicating their own ideas vis a vie farmin deals, seeking a holding in another enterprise, paying a special 'bonus' reward to shareholders, mergers, or other long term intentions. At present we can't see much further out than the next 2-3 years at best. A new find at Hector (1:3 at best) would of course dramatically change long term prospects.
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dolor
Posted on: Jun 24 2007, 10:25 AM


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In reply to: shasta on Thursday 21/06/07 10:46pm

Shasta you are on the button. John Cambell from Oil and Gas Weekly has given an overwhelming endorsement today for a PPP/NZOG merger with Allan Tattersfield as the new chairman. This makes a lot of sense for the long term survival and growth of both companies, with an enlarged capital base and diversification in resources and enterprise development. An expanded permit holding would be a further option if the new entity could find another partner or two with production potential outside the the offshore Taranaki Basin. With a sound long term income stream this would make for an attractive resource stock for investment companies.
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dolor
Posted on: Jun 22 2007, 03:51 PM


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Posts: 143

Well CJS, after watching and waiting for a year, I too have been struck by the MST missile enthusiasm and have now joined the pack, cleaning out most of the 14.5's. Fingers crossed as this is outside my usual type of investment.
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dolor
Posted on: Jun 19 2007, 06:15 PM


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Posts: 143

In reply to: gerd96 on Tuesday 19/06/07 03:59pm

Hi Gerd, she's exploding after a near 2 year hiatus. While there is no new news the volumes and sp rise indicates either a strong broker input, yet to become public, or somebody has spread the word that drilling is likely to commence next month as flagged by the company. There is potential for this to be a 10 x bagger within two years, 11 shallow wells in the present drilling schedule with 100% of oil rights, (i.e. no farmout), Santos with $US24 committed for seismic and drilling in the next two years to ean 80%, CIG fully cashed up to $9m for the rig ownership and drilling, infrastructure already in place, and Santos with a cornerstone and stabilising 16.9% ownership. This board are quiet achievers who tell us what they have done rather than raise endless expectations with much fanfare and then disappoint when there are the inevitable failures. Wait for the next announcement that their rig is on site and about to start drilling for the price to surpass the previous high resistance level at 9.5c. Here's predicting 12c by Sept 30th and then 'blue sky'!
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dolor
Posted on: Jun 7 2007, 02:27 PM


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In reply to: kentbrockman on Thursday 07/06/07 11:27am

Indeed. Pitt and Tomkinson are a couple of linked entrepreurs in oil and minerals who are out of Perth and hold on the ASX not the NZX register.
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dolor
Posted on: Jun 7 2007, 10:41 AM


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Posts: 143

In reply to: Oceanbeach on Thursday 07/06/07 08:45am

Very critical trade in its implications. Only two holders have this number of shares on the NZX, NZOG and Allan Tatersfield. Which ever way this is viewed, buyer or seller or both, this trade represents a move towards a cornerstone holding which will ultimately be revealed with a shareholder notice. It probably represents the first move in the projected take over/merger for PPP and reinforces the current price as representing fair net value for the company prior to any new discovery, reserve upgrade, or corporate activity. Watch this space, as some development will surely evolve within weeks rather than months.
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dolor
Posted on: May 18 2007, 08:17 AM


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Posts: 143

In reply to: ead83 on Thursday 17/05/07 10:17pm

All very well for NWE but what's in it for PCL. They have astounding prospects and leverage that could turn penny dreadfuls into dollar darlings in the twist of a drill, all multiplied at several locations that are full of potential elephants. Why would a PCL holder want to forgo that gigantic leverage for little gain apart from a cent or two of cash flow? The directors hold trumps with huge personal holdings, making for easy pickings, but they would have to make an offer I couldn't refuse to get me to budge. Just love all that blue sky, it is heaven sent.
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dolor
Posted on: May 16 2007, 01:35 PM


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Posts: 143

If ever there was a lifestyle sleeper E & P oil co this is it. In the past 2 years 'Sleepy Svalbe' has done nothing outside the farm except to initial an agreement in Namibia which he did not negotiate. Just look at the 5 postings on this site for the past 5 months. In part it may be the board who are so focused on NWE that they have put PCL on the back burner, collecting fat payments nevertheless, but his resignation will not be missed. We can only hope that his successor, young Mathew Battrick will generate more energy for the company in every respect. Their permits are exciting and offer plenty of blue sky once some exploration is actioned. Valentine looks an enticement until Africa stimulates some real interest.
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dolor
Posted on: May 10 2007, 10:13 AM


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In reply to: sprite on Thursday 10/05/07 07:55am

Sprite, I was using the graphic from the last annual report in trying to determine the distance drilled and likely termination point. In retrospect the distance correlates with the map sizing for Amokura without further encroachment towards the depiction of Pateke. Under this scenario it is unlikely that the two are contiguous. Sorry for the error. Further observation suggests Pateke would require a 4000m horizontal section to traverse the full length of the field, a likely overall 4+ week task with its implications for commencement of Hector.
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dolor
Posted on: May 8 2007, 12:10 PM


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Posts: 143

These stranded assets are just that, without real commercial value unless additional nearbye discoveries or extensions, i.e. Corvus, allow development of new infrastructure to allow processing, storage, offloading, transport, etc. What is really interesting is the horizontal drilling in Omokura. Over 1800m means that this section has reached the edge of Pateke intimating a contiguous field between the two. If this is the case look for a huge upgrade in reserves. Tui is already slated for an upgrade given the greater depth of oil bearing layer that was encountered in drilling that field. This could mean both an extension of the life of the development and a slower take off, potentially increasing the percentage oil recovery rate. Nothing but good news ahead for this project. Cheers to the Ocean Patriot team, AWE, Randy Stewart and all involved. We owe you guys a big one.
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dolor
Posted on: Apr 17 2007, 11:55 AM


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Posts: 143

In reply to: beachboy2 on Tuesday 17/04/07 09:32am

We're very reliant on AWE for their input and operator skills for this Hector drill, but with the Bounty crew and Schlumberger as the proven masters on the job, we should have every confidence in their ability to drill on time and on budget. The really positive note is that the geologist from PPP who proposed the offshore Taranaki fairway and is responsible for the discovery of Tui, is Eric Mathews who now heads up the Taranaki exploration programme for AWE. Hector is not a wildcat well, with proven fields in close proximity, Maui C sands as the target and an oil kitchen established as the source rocks for migration to the Hector trap. This is almost as good as exploration gets and it's likely to happen next month.
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dolor
Posted on: Apr 13 2007, 08:25 AM


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In reply to: ACTURTLE on Thursday 12/04/07 02:21pm

Acturtle, you are correct in stating the executive team i.e. Tony Radford, has been there since time zero, but apart from the secretary Kim Waring there isn't any professional or oil explorer or 'hands on the soil' type employee or consultant on board. The departures of Eric Mathews to AWE and Mike Sandy to Caspian has left a void which the company has seemingly not sought to rectify. This implies to me that their long term strategies may have changed. In commercial terms this is a shell company with excellent oil exploration/production permits and is awaiting new developments. Radford as an accountant has wide entrepreneurial experience in resources including gold, coal, oil and gas and has always shown that he keeps the best interests of shareholders to heart.
The other reason for suggesting some form of imminent change is in the recent large shareholding accumulations by a few well informed Perth based oil/resource gurus. Their options will depend on the outcome of Hector as a new discovery there opens huge new oil field prospects which will take lots of cash to bring to production, but would turn AWE and NZO/PPP into major oil producers. Which ever way it tumbles, this company is likely to see change within this year, all of which brings new investors on board. Hopefully they are long term holders like most of us on this thread.
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dolor
Posted on: Apr 12 2007, 02:06 PM


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In reply to: towie on Thursday 12/04/07 12:30pm

Pan Pacific are at a transition phase in their developement, moving from a exploration company to a producer with huge cash flows about to commence. With a likely high take up of the forthcoming options and $50m from Tui in year 1, plus another $50m over the next two years, the shares are selling at discount to their intrinsic value. This makes them a very safe bet with little downside risk until 28-30c, even if the market falls and the price of oil falls below $50. The additional upside potential is in the imminent Hector drill and potential longer term merger, take over, acquisition possibility. With a board consisting of older entrepreneurial/financial individuals rather than genuine oil/geology explorers, some form of company realignment looks a certainty in the longer term. In addition, there are no science/geology/oil managment staff on the payrole. What does that say about their longer term intentions?
With a price over 21c the shares are in a price breakout, signalling a new phase. Like others I have taken the opportunity to increase my holdings, overweighting big time and hopefully little waiting in real time. My only concern is that the gamblers might soon come on board with their T3 day trading, distorting the true market and causing wild fluctuations. If the price takes a 10% drop on large volumes tomorrow, that will be the marque of the day traders selling before the weekend. May-June are promising much excitement ahead.
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dolor
Posted on: Mar 29 2007, 10:26 PM


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In reply to: gutfeeling on Thursday 29/03/07 08:35pm

It seems more likely that this is a mutually beneficial move to everyone's advantage.
PPP gets its $2.2m allowing it to meet its share of cost overruns.
Tattersfield gets a blocking stake but more importantly for him, an immediate capital gain.
The market gets a resounding confirmation of nearterm performance prospects, with a likely reserves upgrade and possible longer term corporate activity. What more could we desire?
With such high current volumes and SP appreciation in the market the premium that existed for a possibleT/O now seems past. On the other hand the usual gap retreat that one expects after a rapid rise has not yet eventuated, suggesting the price still has considerable upward momentum. If so, where could this pressure be driven from? It seems the Taranaki oil gods are in near unison. Tui 2H and 3H have progressed to completion and beyond expectation. A reserves upgrade of 10% seems near certain. Omokura is likely to be finished by the end of April with a chance that it could establish cintiguity with Pateke allowing a further upgrade. Then the real prize of a possible discovery in Hector opens the exploration gushers for an entirely new offshore Southern Taranaki bonanza in the extension of the Maui C sands, already proven to exist this far south from the failed Hochstetter drill. The key is whether oil has migrated this far and whether there is an adequate seal. We'll be talking dollars not cents per share if this comes to fruition and the Ocean Patrirot and the AWE team behind it are just right mix to make it all happen. Then beyond all this is the almost certain $millions in cash which will be free to PPP by year's end. Prospects are also good in the Carnarvon basin where Corvus (amongst others)is to be further drilled in 08, already having a 400ft deep gas bearing discovery just waiting for commercial opportunities. A new management structure can't be too far away adding even more positivity to a company with nothing but good near term prospects.
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dolor
Posted on: Mar 19 2007, 11:32 AM


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Albion, how right you are. Not only is this as low risk an investment in oil exploration as one could find, the upside is laden with opportunity for the patient investor. Interesting that Tattersfield, Tomkinson and Pitt, all entrepreneurial oil investors, between them and in concert hold the purse strings and future to this co., both at the board level and in strategic ownership. They are not selling shares and even more importantly they are not selling their huge option holdings. This must mean that they have confidence in events to come in the ensuing three months. In addition to the drilling of Hector still scheduled for May, the prospects for Taranui and possibly a Tieke sidetrack, plus the very likely upgrade of Tui, all add to a potential near term rerating of the stock. John Campbell of Oil and Gas Weekly has so much confidence in the stock he purchased a large parcel of the options last week giving the turnover a much awaited boost. When the shareprice moves it will likely do so quickly over a few days giving little time to those waiting quietly in the background waiting until something happens.
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dolor
Posted on: Mar 9 2007, 02:12 PM


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In reply to: chimera on Tuesday 06/03/07 09:01pm

With the second Tui production well almost completed, the two further production drilling wells at Pateke and Amokura are likely to be completed ahead of time. This leaves two months free for Hector and ? Taranui exploratory wells. Plenty of time for the options to become trader favourites with poptential to be 10 baggers, all within 3 months hence. The heads are under pinned by the impending high oil production with virtually nil downside. Recent volume rise suggests the market is beginning to recognise the potential. Looks like the current best bargain anywhere. Predict a POO doubling within 6 weeks from the current 3c.
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dolor
Posted on: Mar 2 2007, 12:19 PM


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NZO is a co that has lost all credibility in the market to the extent that no investors of note are seriously interested in share purchases. The SP has languished around 80c for the last two years in spite of major company making projects. Why is this such a sleeper?
Firstly, the chairman makes endless promises and announces self imposed deadlines which he fails to meet. Pike is the last case in point.
Secondly, the board attitude to shareholders is not a priority, though they are the only stakeholders. Deals are done without shareholder involvement and are finalised at the very last moment generating uneccesary urgency, all in an attempt to minimise risk even when this is perceived rather than real. Undue caution has led to antagonism in the investment market portraying the board as indicisive and obstructive and even secretive.
Thirdly, the chairman has excessive influence as the biggest individual holder, CEO(about to change), 25 years holding the reins, cross holdings thru other companies and family members preventing any take over, and a board that have always deferred to his dominance. Rich financial pickings have been included recently to the point of exploitation, despite ample reward coming through double dipping via Pan Pacific who hold the same licenses and participate in the same projects.
Little is likely to change under this senario until time diminishes tenures or shareholder activism is provoked or a major investor steps in to make sweeping changes. This co is like those of old, dominated by a select few who seem to have their own agenda and believe their main obligation to shareholders is to front up at the AGM and make some promises and offer hope for the future. Strategic thinking and activism are not the hallmarks of acountants.
Perhaps the board could use the opportunity created by the impending start of the new CEO to appoint a new board member whose role is to ensure that shareholders are consulted on issues of strategic planning and above all else improve communication with the market at large. The recent employee entrusted with this role is not up to the task.
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dolor
Posted on: Jan 8 2007, 06:18 PM


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NZO have lost all credibility with their Pike River Coal fiasco and their poor timing with a subsequent rights issue. It seems likely that a low take up will further dent market sentiment frustrating the later funding quest for Pike which is itself meeting delays in tunnelling progress. In addition the supposed resignation of Radford from the CEO position has not ensued as promised,suggesting that a successor is proving hard to find. Who would take such a role while Radford holds the chair and maintains his arrogant autocrasy in the face of endless public relations embarassments?
What can be done to unlock the value in this company?
1. Take over. Not really possible other than with a majority interest, while Radford and
family plus intercompany holdings prevent a 90% holding.
2. Board restructuring. The gerontocracy and Radford dominance will only be resolved if a
new majority owner can step in to appoint new oil savvy members.
3. Shareholder activism. Sentimentally appealing but with disgruntled holders selling out, it
is practically impossible for any small hloders across two countries banding together in
sufficient strenth to bring about change.
4. Institutional intervention. This too would have appeal if there were a few strong minded
investment companies on the register. Only the NZ ACC shows any stomach for the
long haul in holding NZO and they have always been passive investors.
5. Time. Nobody is forever, so change will ultimately come irrespective of delays, poor
management, bad public relations, inept decision making and strategic thinking, and a
lack of experience in making the transition from explorer to a serious oil, gas
and coal producer.
Meanwhile the share price says everything irrespective of great medium and longer term prospects.
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dolor
Posted on: Nov 8 2006, 06:26 PM


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You are right Albion, NZOggers have been well served despite the poor public relations. Tony Radford is in my opinion, open and honest, seeking to do the best for shareholders for which we are greatful. He is conscious of the time/cost over runs and the under delivery of expectations for which some of us have given him a hard time. With this in mind some attempt to meet our concerns will likely be addressed in the Pike IPO announcement next week. This irrespective of the Tieke spud and any outcome of drilling. For a change we might be surprised with delivery beyong expectations. That would certainly give the company new credibility and sharemarket acceptance. Let's hope.
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dolor
Posted on: Nov 3 2006, 02:37 PM


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In reply to: gutfeeling on Friday 03/11/06 11:12am

Thanks gutfeeling, you have provided answers to key issues.
Tieke looks like being the best Xmas present of all, with no question of selling on spud.
With such good geology, proximity to the TAP fields and a relative next to nothing tie in cost, this looks like the bargain well of the Taranaki basin. Let's hope that there are no delays and the OP is released about mid November with a start by the 3rd week to bring the target within range about mid December, testing about Xmas.
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dolor
Posted on: Oct 31 2006, 12:14 PM


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With good news and imminent prospectivity ahead, the forthcoming AGM at 10.30 this coming Friday will be a very positive affair. Unfortunately other obligations will keep me away this year and I wonder of any bloggers on this forum are likely to attend. They could ask:
1. What plans are ahead for the huge funds likely to accumulate with the maturing of
options in a few months and the cash flow from TAP by this time next year?
2. What are Hardman likely to do with their 10m+ shares?
3. Is there any thought to the introduction of a new and younger exoerienced oil exec from
another co. to the board?
4. Would the board consider a merger with NZOG?
5. Widespread conjecture has PPP as a near term take over prospect. Have the board
given consideration to any pre-emptive protective move?

In the interim while we wait for the drills and thrills ahead, this has become a prime 'can't lose' investment which will soon attract the dreaded traders and all the volatility they will create.
Please keep us informed of discussion at the AGM.
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dolor
Posted on: Oct 27 2006, 01:45 PM


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In reply to: albion on Thursday 26/10/06 08:15pm

There seems little doubt that some form of corporate activity will ensue over the next few months. As the saying goes, 'the planets are in line'.
Tui is soon to produce an excellent cash return, sufficient to cover the likely costs of any acquisition.
Tieke adds an extra buffer to this project with a high return for little capital outlay.
Hector is the blue sky to future prospects, with a drilling scheduled for Q2 07
Carnarvon has several small oil and gas fields with Apache, which in time will probably be incorporated with adjacent developments or sold on to other operators.
Bricklanding offers potential for further new discovery in this basin.
There is ample cash available to cover contingencies thru to Tui production.
Taranaki has several prospects and permits with PPP involvement sufficient to continue drill and thrill prospects into 2008 and beyond if there are new successes.
Major experienced oil investors now control the board and the register, ensuring that other investors are also likely to be well served by any suitor.
The overhang of soon to mature options and the holdings by NZOG are the unknown quanities that might constrain any merger or acquisition in the near term.
For what it's worth my guess is that if TAP come up empty on Cutter, they will need to replenish reserves with a new purchase. PPP would be a perfect fit. Any other guesses?
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dolor
Posted on: Oct 24 2006, 11:06 AM


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Holding stock in this co is like watching grass grow; very slow, very dull, followed by an occasional burst of activity about spring and summer, as the owners begin to despair. The board are renown for not listening to shareholders, especially the chairman. He must have been in office longer than almost any other ceo/chairman on the ASX, notwithstanding the strong recommendation that no person should hold both offices in ASX listed companies. Why don't they enforce their own rules? He does the same with PPP and collects more than ample remuneration from both, doing essentially the same tasks, covering the same permits, bar one difference for each co. AGM for NZO this week, PPP next. Will there be a shareholder protest at either? Not likely! A passive, submissive lot of small holders in NZO and heavily committed major holders in PPP.
Just waiting to see the traditional sop to appease holders on Friday. Any guesses?
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dolor
Posted on: Oct 4 2006, 09:02 PM


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This co management are all on sedatives. They are leaders in procrastination and never cease to disappoint. If only someone would give them (him) a lesson in public relations 101. For all that, recent history suggests that the 'him' will again provide a major announcement at the forthcoming AGM so as to appease the anger and frustration of shareholders who have patiently held out pending the development of their 3 projects. My bet is a new CEO and something definitive on Pike. Having said that we have been promised the latter for so long that it will almost certainly fail to excite, being well below expectations. Cost overruns, IPO debacles, transport to port delays, possible economic downturn, and above all management inexperience, will all combine to further diminish whatever slight confidence the market has in this stock. New broom time!
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dolor
Posted on: Oct 1 2006, 07:14 PM


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Hector drilling will probably depend on OP's schedule with Cutter starting in about 2 weeks. If the hole is dry after 3 weeks then there may be a slot for Hector before moving to Tui. If there is a strike, it may need another 3 weeks for casing and flow testing, precluding further time for Hector. It could well be May before the rig is then free for exploratory as opposed to development drilling. With Tap oil needing a change in fortune, one hopes that this one will be their lucky break or some M & A activity will be needed to shore up their reserves. They can barely hold the share price on current fortunes, let alone another failure.
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dolor
Posted on: Aug 10 2006, 03:31 PM


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Lessons on how to erode shareholder value.
1. Cash burn maintaining executive and board salaries doing little
2. Private placements at 20% below market to support #1.
3. Dilution of holdings with action #2.
4. Losses from opportunity costs while others gain in the same market.
5. Lack of company driven initiatives other than 1 & 2.
6. Ownership dominated by board who have several other major oil interests.

Perhaps some concerted shareholder activism needed on this one? Any takers?
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dolor
Posted on: Aug 8 2006, 12:47 PM


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Placement of 25m shares at 5.25 does nothing but lower the value twice over for we poor and patient holders. The political naievity of management is only too obvious and has seriously hindered progress. On the home front nothing has happened in over a year except for the steady erosion of funds in administrative costs to maitain the status quo. Even the traders keep away!
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dolor
Posted on: Jul 28 2006, 07:59 PM


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In reply to: cy7 on Tuesday 06/06/06 04:37pm

Well cy7, here's another go. Nearly two months again and nothing's changed! Superficially at least. But, volatility has narrowed, moving averages have converged, indices suggest the shares are oversold and we are about to see major company changes for the long term.
Management performance is a serious limitation to investor perception of this co and a change might hopefully be forthcoming for the next AGM. Pike River IPO should be announced imminently with NZO holders receiving preferential entitlement. Once the Ocean Patriot is released for Taranaki drilling in the last quarter, additional prospects adjacent to Tui are certain to keep us both entertained and possibly excited. With a bit of luck we might even see farmin partners for some of their other permits which have been awaiting suitors. Prediction - SP will hit $1.00 by year's end and current price will not ever be lowered. Do some research, print some charts. Next episode comes October 2nd.
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dolor
Posted on: Jul 5 2006, 10:52 AM


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The top contender who would have an interest in PPP might be AWE. Eric Mathews has moved from PPP to AWE bringing in his 20 year and successful oil exploration experience in the Taranaki Basin to further enhance their exploration prospects. With a high sp premium now available to them, AWE can purchase the additional production (5mbo) and Hector Tui exploration potential for a mere 30m shares. Not to forget their Carnovan sleepers and Egypt for nothing. In addition they could dispense with all the admin and listing costs at a saving of over $1.5m per year. As operator of their Taranaki license, they know the field and whole area better than anyone and would not have to incur any further financial costs with the banking facilities already in place. With Cutter lined up for Sept/Oct the AWE price is sure to take another step up, giving some certainty to any share swap deal that might be offered in the near term. Any delay into later in the year might backfire if Cutter is non commercial and Hector is a winner causing a reversal in share price premiums. Someone should tell Bruce Phillips what a good deal could be had over the next 6-8 weeks.
TAP as an unsuccessful explorer in the region might be a default suitor, or NZO or Hardman who have large holdings in PPP, might also covet their chances in any contest. As the directors hold controlling interests in any take over, their acceptance would almost certainly require a big premium, perhaps to 25-30c a share for any hope of a successful offer, but the prospect of a swap for AWE would be an appealing enticement.

Whatever way the next 3 months go, PPP look to be a winner on all counts.
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dolor
Posted on: Jun 6 2006, 02:03 PM


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Can't believe it's 2 months since the last post and absolutely nothing has happened with this co. Par for the course, but our patience and tolerance should soon be rewarded. Like two weeks from now! All we noggers and pikers are likely to have details on both Kupe FID and the float of PRCC sometime 21-23rd June at earliest, but at least by the end of the month as promised in the extended notification posts by the co earlier in the year. Will we take the preferrential allocations to PRCC at ?1:6-10 range. Will we sell NZO to fund our allocations? Will the SP rise in anticipation or fall in a sell off to fund any shareholder take up? Interesting 3 weeks ahead for all of us.
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dolor
Posted on: May 17 2006, 06:45 PM


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Today's extremely bullish report on HZN from Peter Strachan on Stock Analysis should see the sp rise again tomorrow. His immediate target is 50c, without considering the likely rerating of Wei 6-12-S. Aren't we long term holders fortunate indeed? And to think I nearly gave up with Bligh.
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dolor
Posted on: Apr 13 2006, 03:47 PM


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Our board and management sat and did little over several years, sorely testing our stamina. If the shares had not been near worthless, I would have sold long ago. But now, hey presto, they add success on success. Well done guys and thanks for working diligently to our mutual benefit. All we investors need to do now is sit tight, don't sell, add to the coffers if/when funds are needed in a year or so, and spread the word.
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dolor
Posted on: Apr 13 2006, 03:38 PM


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The HZN team have done well for all of us with more to come. Such good asset creation and future cash generators will always create interest and investment from long term investors. Once we are rid of the day traders and have serious accumulators, the share price will steadily increase. This should occur over the next few months, so those with a bit more patience will be well rewarded. It's the sellers who keep the price moving sideways, for reasons that defy investment logic. Don't sell unless you have to!
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dolor
Posted on: Apr 10 2006, 06:03 PM


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Who remembers Corvus, that huge gas find in the Carnavon that was a 10% farmin with Apache back in 1999? Well, that might give another life to Pan Pacific with the announcement that Inpex Holdings from Japan are to undertake a massive LNG project to capture West Australian gas deposits. Without a market or distribution network, there was no comercial imperative to advance this find, but now there is an option to capitalise on the potential of this field and at the very minimum to add some monetary value to extensive gas deposit that lies untapped. Might be worth another 10c a share in the longer term?
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dolor
Posted on: Apr 5 2006, 08:42 AM


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In reply to: cy7 on Friday 31/03/06 10:35am

You're right, the trend lines are now well and truly broken indicating a new phase in the progress of NZO. Perhaps the impatient sellers are now departed as there seems no great buying pressure. With new projects under development and the return of exploratory drilling about October their prospects are decidedly more positive. Coal will provide the next majot impetus to any price change, but we face the ongoing challenge of management and board gerontocracy with little prospect of change. Introduction of a new major shareholder on the registry would give renewed credibility and status to a company that has rapidly risen from minnow to top 50 on the NZX. Finances are particularly sound for all current developments so it looks to be upwards and onwards from now on, just a matter of patience and perseverence. Where are the raiders and traders?
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dolor
Posted on: Mar 15 2006, 02:40 PM


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In reply to: albion on Tuesday 10/01/06 08:08am

Endless promises that are never met, demonstrated again in the latest 6 monthly report. Pike River is delayed yet again! What a surprise. The biggest liability this company has is the management, who dither, delay, default and disappoint to such a level that the average investor is now so disenchanted that they sell and never come back. Until age, decrepitude or shareholder activism take control of this pedantic procrastinating administration, we're unlikely to see a change in sentiment. Do we really have to wait another 3 years for this company to turn for the better or can we muster our collective power and make some changes. Perhaps the best solution would be for a larger oiler to do a share swap deal and take a majority interest. Presto all would be solved!
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dolor
Posted on: Feb 26 2006, 06:24 AM


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With so many sellers willing to offer their holdings at margins of 1c difference it will require a major shift in their attitude to bring some sensible trading to this stock. The price has moved little in months despite huge changes in company activities, suggesting that long term holders have not pursued FAR to any serious degree. We need long term anchor investors to underpin a solid value base before any real movement takes place. Where are they and why have they stayed away despite so many positive events? Perhaps confirmation of commercial flows will flush them out these coming weeks?
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dolor
Posted on: Feb 22 2006, 05:07 PM


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This year, next year, time does not matter when you are CEO or chairman and are extremely well paid irrespective of any activity by the company. This sure is easy time for each who can wait for years with a steady shareholder funded income while the rest of use languish in a floundering share price. Get of your bums guys and give us some action for our bucks. What about an AIM listing to gain some London interest in the Malta permit. After the designated 6 months postponement we still have no communication re progress on the boundary agreement with Libya. Hope it' not time for the custard.
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dolor
Posted on: Feb 17 2006, 01:59 PM


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In reply to: pheonix on Friday 17/02/06 12:58pm

All these day traders are a pain in the butt. They shift large quantities at small margins without interest in the longer term prospects. Their reconning is for 10% movements each time, moving in and out in quick succession as price movements fluctuate. They distort the true market and serve no real purpose other than to support the interest of brokers and the stock exchange and sometimes themselves. We should stuff them in a casino and let the rest of us get on with proper company investment based on value and fundamentals. Traders in FAR - Get off our pet company!
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dolor
Posted on: Feb 8 2006, 04:49 PM


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In reply to: entropylord on Monday 16/01/06 10:59pm

The Kenya farmout had been flagged as the board priority once Malta(now delayed) was announced nearly a year ago. The sp reflected this expectation but disappointment with the farminee and prospect for a further fund raising this year have now imploded the price to levels not seen in the current more prospective era. Unless WA provides some interest there seems nothing to excite with this company in the year ahead. Some pre-emptive action needed by the board?
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dolor
Posted on: Jan 26 2006, 09:28 AM


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In reply to: pargolf on Thursday 26/01/06 09:01am

Hello pargolf. With your monicker you won't have time to read 500 pages of text. However if you really want a copy, I bought mine thru Amazon for $14 second hand but as good as new. One read and I'm an expert!
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dolor
Posted on: Dec 1 2005, 04:42 PM


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In reply to: oldman river on Monday 21/11/05 08:41pm

With the SP languishing cum rights issue, the opportunity for a cheap entry at current levels gives a rare chance to exploit what may be an unrepeated downturn. PPP have a current share value ascertained at 19c by StockAnalysis, with lots of blue sky for Q3 2006 when drilling recommences for Tui and surrounding satellite prospects. Not to mention the added thrill of all the Hector sites to follow. PPP has the best leverage of all the companies in these prospects and would fly if any prove successful. There would be little additional capital cost to development of Tui satellites, which has now achieved cost coverage with the new capital raising and bank loan facility just granted. Look for NZO to take up any shortfall given their private placement for NZ$12m, so that PPP will not have to go begging at further discount. With the full capital costs likely to be recovered within the first 6 months of production, this company is an oilplay cash converter in the making and will rocket on any new field discovery. The added cash flow to come, will occur about the same time as the options mature, at a price which seems generous given the likely events ahead and assures the company of further cash at a time when it is likely to embark on the drilling of Hector. All this suggests the patient shareholders amongst us are unlikely to be called upon again and can look forward to reaping the rewards of our tolerance and patience. In the interim, the management are financially mean enough to ensure there will be no unpleasant surprises ahead and we can but wait the normal viscitudes of the market as these prospects come to fruition.
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dolor
Posted on: Oct 19 2005, 03:03 PM


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The last few months have seen major internal conflict in Bounty. T.F. is sacked, White Sands is financially and physically paralysed, South Canterbury is taken away because of non performance, the coffers are emptying rapidly and now there is a coup in the making. Doesn't auger well for the future does it?
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dolor
Posted on: Sep 20 2005, 06:40 PM


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In reply to: albion on Tuesday 20/09/05 07:58am

A clear break upwards in trend lines has occured this past week without any company announcement or specific activity. This suggests a new momentum might be starting, coming off rising lows and an interesting price pattern over the past two years. Each 3 months going back from August shows a particular trend or pattern for that and each 3 month period previous. This month is a breakout from the last, perhaps indicating a change for this 3 months. With all the FID plans scheduled ahead, the fundamentals for NZO look very promising.
An overlooked attribute of management strategies is that they seek to minimise capital raising from shareholders, this last option conversion being a rare event and unlikely to be repeated despite huge infrastructure demands coming ahead. It's likely that funding will come from partial selldowns, forward sale agreements, purchaser contributions, cash flow and a current kitty of $50m or so, not to forget the massive tax credits once the projects are cash positive. The future is likely to be dramatic with no downside unless investors get silly and run the price up too quickly. No traders please, slow and steady will do us just fine!.
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dolor
Posted on: Sep 5 2005, 05:29 PM


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In reply to: albion on Monday 05/09/05 03:48pm

silly me
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dolor
Posted on: Sep 5 2005, 03:05 PM


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Recent posts suggest this company may not last much longer as a promising minnow. How true!
A contolling interest is easily procurred with just $25m in cash or via a share bid, yielding about $25000 a day from light crude once the TAP development is under way in 2007. This assumes current prices might hold, giving more than enough to be self funding from the outset.

The shareprice is currently steady within the 14-16c trading range of most of the past year, but has now come off the 2005 wedge formed from February. It appears to be on the verge of a new uptrend with the 10 day moving average now sustained ahead of the longer term averages for the first time in a year. Any major announcement should see a rise to new peaks about 20c.
In this context, the company is likely to announce the FID for the TAP development within a matter of weeks. Their cash position has improved considerably with the sale of Turbridgi and a private placement, leaving some $6m in kitty. More will be needed but a positve cash flow should allow for alternative funding options as well.
If this isn't enough to excite, take a peek at the potential of the Hector prospects and wonder why this company is still submerged in the oil wilderness.
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dolor
Posted on: Sep 5 2005, 02:05 PM


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Posts: 143

In reply to: theflasherman on Friday 02/09/05 09:57pm

It's hard to fathom the company's perseverence with drilling in Taranaki when they could be using the high share price premium and cash reserves to buy into proven fields with a simple takeover. The cost would be $8 or less per barrell in ground with the potential for further oil in satellite prospects within permits for both PPP or HZN. Not to mention their other discoveries. Wait for Jacala and then--action for Xmas whichever way this goes!
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dolor
Posted on: Aug 12 2005, 07:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 143

In reply to: mangrove on Thursday 11/08/05 11:58pm

Whatever way you look at it, FAR is on a new trend line with rising lows and rising highs coming off an over sold position since completion of the options conversion. The immediate short term target over the next 3 month cycle is to reach 12-13c after which we will probably take a breather while the gap is consolidated. Hold on for the ride.
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dolor
Posted on: Jul 29 2005, 03:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 143

In reply to: kiwi kid on Friday 29/07/05 12:14pm

Agree that NZO is under rated by market on basis of known oil and coal reserves. Undervalued assets don't lay about too long but it is unlikely that anything will happen until fid decisions are made on each of their 3 major projects. Then any potential suitor will know the likely financial obligations and can assess cash flow to determine whether any raid is likely to be self funded. Two problems persist, however, with a very conservative risk averse board and a large share ownership held by an obsessionally protective chairman. The close association with PPP begs whether this will be re-amalgamated again or whether this co too becomes an enticing prospect for takeover. The Ausie oil industry is ripe for consolidation so it only a matter of time before some of the cash rich, high value cos take advantage of their share premiums to add to their 2P reserves and prospecting permits. Any wagers on either of these two receiving raids about Xmas or early 2006?
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dolor
Posted on: Jul 15 2005, 01:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 143

In reply to: FORWARD on Friday 15/07/05 08:10am

Good looking FORWARD. PCL a no brainer with a very savy Kennedy/Rushworth (ex NZO, NWE) leadership and Svalbe giving sound credentials for their geological programme. Perhaps the greatest concern is the time element in their actions, procrastination being the norm for everything they do.
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dolor
Posted on: Jul 15 2005, 01:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 143

In reply to: grim reaper on Thursday 14/07/05 05:05pm

Agree that STX has more going for it in the next few weeks than other 3rd tier oilers but market is in lateral phase awaiting current drill. Perhaps the biggest surprise at present is BUY, with both volume and price rising 20% this week without any announcement.
What's up with BUY?
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