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The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king ?
kahuna1
post Posted: Jul 28 2019, 05:34 PM
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In Reply To: tombeet's post @ Jul 28 2019, 03:43 PM

Hi Tom ...
yep well ... as always scratching my head.
His racist rants one thing.Telling other nations how to NOT tax USA based companies is another.Healthcare issue ... is something that will change but ... when 2020 or 2024 ?

For now, we go up I suspect via USA fed cutting rates which well ... will have NO real impact on the lower 80% because the main part of their finance is via credit cards or car loans for the lower 60% and they will not move. Conversely. those who own shares, well that will drive asset prices higher as yet again no interest.
Amazing to see 30 year German bonds near zero and 10 years at Minus 0.4% .Whilst USA bonds much much higher and with good cause, its going to be some time to see rates higher so again ... one of the many reasons the USA is up here and well ... we follow.
2020 Trump re-election appears like a mess. Fox news is a disgrace and so openly right and Trump and whites only club, its chilling to look back at the antics of the 1920's in the USA and 30's ... along with Germany but the USA back then was sadly just like Germany. Not much has changed and for now, thankfully the Jewish people seem to think they are KKK club members in 2019. They have copped enough.
Sadly, KKK hates everyone and each little group has its own Oligachy interests and Tech Boys, who pay no tax, Jewish, fund 30% of all donations which skews things one way, drug companies and healthcare 25% , Oil and gas 20% Banking 20% and from time to time its the large employers who rise up to stop people demanding higher wages, or the Las Vegas crowd, again Jewish and Sheldon who chips in millions ...

what the vast majority and a landslide is over 60% in any election but 75% of people want universal healthcare, sadly the powers to be bribed in the USA and delusional number one, call them socialists and communists for wanting what We have and 65 other nations a lower cost healthcare system which covers close to 100% in basic cover.
I struggle with how many are being ignored and loosing 15 years of life, so ... turnips like trump or other cretins who pay no tax can add to their pile.

I was wrong, in 2008 that they would do something about it. Had to do something about it. They just eroded the pensions, slashed the cover of the already awful healthcare free over 65 cover and then gave themselves a tax cut.
Strange but we, Australia and every other nation by NOT actually demanding tax be paid by USA mainly companies but a long list in other tax havens are actually enabling this.
Sad we are so weak in leadership, afraid of the man with the wig and fake tan. Oh and his minions .... and what a bunch they are !!

Strange times. UP for now ... its the only way ... as much as it is absurd ... low interest rates, no tax paid makes P/E look good for USa and we follow ... and have done so for now.
Have fun







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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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tombeet
post Posted: Jul 28 2019, 03:43 PM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Jul 27 2019, 04:04 PM

Hi Mark,
Thanks for keeping us updated of whats really happening in the world today. Trumps tweets are getting more evil, and he has now started attacking his own country. But its ok because nobody votes for him in the city of Baltimore.


Tom.


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kahuna1
post Posted: Jul 27 2019, 04:04 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jul 27 2019, 10:45 AM

Well MAGA ...
NOT .... Fed muzzled ... USA democracy is purchased and debt ceiling a joke, a record deficit in the best economy EVER ?
Really ?..
France went get stuffed Facebook paying a mere 1% tax rate when its margin is 45% on sales ... Trump responds like a Facebook exec and now threatening tariffs and on wine ? because a nation wants to charge tax on profits generated on its soil ?

Meanwhile, USA hit lowest birth rate, GDP numbers all revised down and even then they are meaningless totally ... as the lower 50% now have negative net worth and the lower 80% even the upper middle class ... thats the 60% to 80% wealth bracket share a mere 7% of overall wealth.
But what drives markets, for now, interest rates, mean it in the USA likely goes now ... we have passed that first milestone of 3,000 on the S+P 500 to likely 3,165.
Outside this, USA could lower rates to MINUS 3% and it still would not improve the lower 80% real economy. This move has nothing to do with anything other than the top 1% ...
As for nations now shedding 1-2% in GDP in not collected tax .... Like France .... Like Australia ... we slowly get strangled. Our nations and NOT bein g hite AMERICANS in the top 1% we are ... well irrelevant and if we complain as France did and imposed a tax to try and collect some value out of the likes of Google and Facebook and Microsoft has not actually gone far enough. When you need 25% PAID on company tax profits and your getting 1% on turnover so about 10% of what you should .... they are stuffed and they must collect more tax there and in fact tighten to compensate.
Eventually, someone will blink.
.
Will it be prior to Trump bombing Iraq ? Or as he mentioned stopping Afghanistan via nuclear weapons or maybe North Korea ? Or Venezuela ? Then of course 2020 and he is unlikely to be re=elected despite FOX news efforts, ... will he actually give up office even if beaten ?

He just gave yet another speech where he claimed fake immigrant voters rigged the 2016 elections and despite investigations in 40 states NONE of this was seen .... NONE of it..
As to telling France what can do, its same for Mexico and Canada and China and Germany and UK and Australia and so on.
Meanwhile USA came 11th out of 11 lowest of OECD nations in healthcare the bug developed ones, came 37th on World Health ranks and likely about 100 if they used the real numbers. As always a cost of the the wealth flowing to the top, the numbers on Medicaid and emergency healthcare in the USA at records up from 20 million to now 80 million. That is a 15 year old with a box of aspirin for your cancer. Its rated at 30% of even the not so good UK NHS health service ....

Bliss .... then again media has every second add in the USA either a defence contractor or healthcare company don t expect any media on it.

Our market, ASX 200 via rate cuts only going one way. UP .... like the USA for now. Sadly USA eventually the debt size and fact their population is NOW not growing with NET negative illigal immigration and ultra low legal immigration and record low interest rates, coupled with rising over 65's retiring ... who is going to pay for the 25 trillion or over 200,000 USD per person debt the Federal govt holds when the lower 80% average income is a mere $32,000- a year ?

Nothing new in this other than the release valve is HUMANS and the fact that 80% of people end up on emergency Free Medicaid in old age, all assets gone, BROKE .... has impacts on life expectancy but to say Mr Zuckerberg or Mr BEzos who the latter has run a company for 25 years that recently hit 1 trillion market cap and has NEVER paid a cent EVER ... in corporate tax, never paid a dividend, something is either wrong with ME .... or with them.
Even the upper middle class, who YES retire with some assets, but being sick in the USA is massively expensive and more and more gaps of not covered and costs for even simple medications at 4 times anywhere else in the world, even they end life on the whole BROKE.
That said. the top 40% ... are in the USA living as one might expect to normal OECD life expectations and the top 10% as always live OECD best plus about 5 years so to 89 .... the USA average is officially 76.8 years .... its lost 7 years post 1985 v Australia let alone 25 OECD top nations ... if one takes out the top 40% of USA and uses a real average life expectancy of the USA not some fiction so about 75 .... the lower 80% and their life expectancy just hit 69 or about the same as Ethiopia or Sudan...
As always a cost .... if one bothers to look.hhhh
USA policy post 1980 when political donations started and now run the goverment and corporate tax is now 30% of what it was. I am serious and even in 2000 USA collected 207 billion corporate tax and the economy was 45% of what it was now. So in other words its lost HALF .... post 2000.

Of course, to say Facebook who actually claimed 5 billion tax deductions for shares granted to Zuckerburg and fellow board members at $10 and when exercised at $120 share price ... they got a deduction for the difference between the two .... $110- and didn't have to pay tax.
Silly Mr Macron in France expecting Facebook to pay tax .... THEY will de=friend you !!
..
Amazing the dictator who ... runs the world now ... is openly threatening France for actually going .... well ... we are merely asking for a share of what we already paid for via the R+D deductions that are already built into the NET profit which of course Facebook paid NO tax to anyone for 60% of the world business it does ...

Silly me ... this will work out fine. That is if Trump doesn't decide to invade North Korea first or ... as Bolton said, nuke them First ... I am sure China will not mind a nuclear cloud over them. They reacted so well last time USA invaded and only 3 million Chinese troops sent McCauther back to the 45th ....

Ahhh bliss .... but for now ... USA goes up.So too do we .... based upon interest rates. Our Govt here, has the wrong policy and balancing the budget with 2% inflation and 3% GDP growth ....we could spend 5% just like the USA but not on tax breaks to the top 1% or 0.1% ... and get things moving. Even 2% of that.'
Since our debt to GDP is a mere 30% NET ... including RBA assets and Future fund, its not as though we are ... even close to USA at 107% of GDP right now or EU average of 94% of GDP ...
We basically are being very loose via RBA policy and then doing the opposite via fiscal policy with that idiot fathead Morrison and Flckerberg even more moronic as treasurer. Yes it makes Sense to have the handbrake on via fiscal policy and the accelerator down via monetary and 1% rates.
Then again, bigger scheme of things, its an aside likely to be irrelevant as the USA seems to think its 1875 and they lead the world. Well since the population globally is 7 times larger and the USA, even with 325 million, only 100 million REAL consumers left .... all the rest on some sick death march of low wages and medical blackmail .... the sad fact that China alone has 700 milloio0n well funded middle class AND the EU with 300 million WELL Funded ... middle class and another 400 million around the world, USA with a mere 100 million relevant all be it mainly racist selfish for a lot of them, will not dictate to the rest of the developed and rich outside world for too much longer.ass
Either Trump exits, and hopefully not Biden as he is likely another bribed corporate fool .... but eventually the rest of the world cannot afford to have such a leak of tax via Google, Microsoft, Intel, Amazon and a long list of others, mainly USA based .... draining the welfare of the world at will.
It is sadly that serious. Given up on Morrison and his boot-licking is a disgrace.
China and India both said get stuffed as well as so many others, which, is evolving onto what the world will look like in the not too distant future. EU and 27 nations same thing.

USA first and stuff the rest ? Or Stuff USA ... or should I say the top 1% and also the racist openly so of late the whole USA and send her back to 3 out of 4 born in the USA ... all women ... so they should shut up according to facist pig with wig .... and my my ... their skin is NOT white !! and SOME have different religious beliefs . Golly ...
kkk

We are in the 1920's for USA where 3 million Klan followers .... about 5% of the adult population were card carrying members. Trumps daddy got arrested at one Klan rally, Gates father ... well he was an Eugenicist a well documented white ONLY one and Buffett his daddy a Birch Society follower who among other things was a holocaust denier .... Buffet supposedly had a normal upbringing if you read some books, but ... well a fiction ... Daddy was one of the original Senators and far right even of Trump ... far far ultra right and America First party member.
Yipeee ....
hmmm

you stupid ignorant French person expecting Facebook to pay tax !!

Meanwhile Our PM ... seen stuffing 6 pies down his throat at the footie ...



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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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nipper
post Posted: Jul 27 2019, 10:45 AM
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Markets still going up..... Cash is real

What negative interest rates really mean.
QUOTE
I am totally in the camp that there is a debt crisis coming, because negative yields is madness. No economic textbook in history talks of negative interest rates. A day of reckoning will come. It’s a bit like a rotting tree, you know its going to collapse and hurt someone. You can see it weltering, you can see the cracks but while its still producing fruit, people are going to hang around the tree enjoying those fruits. That’s what we have now. But what are those fruits?

That’s the assets producing positive yields across the world and what we end up with is a yield crunch. ...this yield crunch; ....with each new central banker speaking it only cements that thematic. The ECB and RBA both said they are ready to step in with more liquidity if the economy shows additional signs of weakness.

So as more and more bonds – Government, corporate and junk – have negative rates, the appeal of other assets producing positive yields becomes more and more attractive. And its not just low risk infrastructure and property assets that investors flock to, but anything that has sustainable and reliable earnings.

As more and more bond yields continue to head to zero and below around the world, the more it will drag every other yield as well. ....
"
https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/07/26/wha...es-mean-to-you/



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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nipper
post Posted: Jul 5 2019, 06:41 PM
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ASX 200 closed the week up, and at 6751, which isn't that far away from that all-time high.

Mind you, it's now past tense, and the index 12 years ago and pre-GFC was a different animal.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
kahuna1
post Posted: Jul 5 2019, 02:42 PM
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QUOTE ("kahuna1 @ post: 1027823, member: 30")
Technically and valuation wise the USA FAILED to even break in any meaningful way the old high at 2,950 or so on the S+P 500. The irresistible 3,000 target not far above that, it FAILED to get there. My own line in the sand at 3,165 is and target still in play, but ... well ... the above is destroying underlying fundamentals quicker than even I can type. It does NOT mean we don't get there, but its less than likely if not impossible that world events and total destruction of overseas markets occurs prior to sanity prevailing. Valuation wise, up here .... USA side ... NOT OURS .... USA wise ... its into 1929 and 2000 type levels. Driven of course by NON payment of tax and it makes things look rosy


The above from a few months ago ... View unchanged USA ...

We are to the first irresistible line in the sand .... 3,000 in the S+P 500 ...
Nothing like the USA lowering tax by 10% that corporate pay.Second is the USA Fed muzzled.
Our markets given the weak Royal commission and our own RBA lowering rates is following lockstep.
Iran and other issues, ignored ... even potential ones.Much like 2000 ... tech sector priced like there is no problem ever to be seen with some companies with a mere 150 mio sales but a market cap over 10 billion.
Still some ways from where the 3,150 -75 SP level where the tide is already out, but the idiocy of markets nowadays is massive selling at lows .... and massive buying at the highs.

I did think the opposite was the idea, but what do I know.Meanwhile the lower 50% in the USA officially have NEGATIVE net equity and no wealth.The lower 80% own NO shares or not much and the top 80% own 93% of all wealth.

Funny thing markets and yep we follow the USA, but our lower 80% have 36% of the wealth .... not 7%.
In 1929-30 ,,,, USA run by the same clowns, with the same no rules policy ... USA actually was making 85% of the cars and 40% globally of all manufacturing.
Today its number 10 .... and a lot of that is questionable that's included.


Time for a holiday and come back when the prices more reflect reality.
Without a functioning middle class, let alone an impoverished lower 50%, much like in 1929, the lower 40% lived in poverty. In 2019, record numbers of people in arrears on car leases, medical bankruptcies number one cause and well ... if your paying in effect 3 times what the rest of the world is, sure my manufacturing numbers look ok.
Take care ...We finally are there ,,, and getting closer .... but this one, painful to watch for human reasons.
Cheers

Mark K
3,165 .... still suspect S+P but betting or predicting stupidity at times ... and for the first time ever, record deficits, record non war defence spending coupled with low low low interest rates ?



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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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kahuna1
post Posted: Jul 3 2019, 03:31 PM
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I have to laugh ...

Trump took Ticker Carlson, the right win Fox idiot to meet Kim .... He was in touching distance.
The following is how delusional USA is right now compared to well Obama who was not great but one can only be amazed at this clip.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMJakLzPags...dex=39&t=0s


UN ambassador was also an ex Fox news reporter ...
The world is an amazing place MAGA 2020 ....


Right at the end ... Nobel Peace Prize for Trump ... can 300,000 dead people in Yemen vote ?



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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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kahuna1
post Posted: Jul 2 2019, 12:43 PM
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Hi,

I note the drums beat louder.
On the enrichment, since USA dropped the deal, Iran even if it wanted to cannot export the excess enriched Uranium at 5% ... that is what it did in the past, but the USA has told everyone it will sanction any nation dealing with Iran.

Nothing like creating a situation.
I note, Say for Saddam in Iraq a Sunni Muslin and about 25% there, the military and all army positions were his Sunni brand and the top end his sons, brothers and so on.

He did comply with inspections pre 2003 invasion, even USA only ones, only for the USA still to claim WMD's were there and invade.

I note Libya with the highest life expectancy and education and welfare in the whole of Africa, again Sunni , NOT shia .... was of course a bad apple, attacks in the region and training and support over many years, In the end however .... 2003 Libya handed over a near completed nuclear weapon.

In 2011 ,. some fighting broke out ... against Gadaffi led govt, NATO and USA bombed him to dust aand he died with a bayonett up his rear.

Saddam, not a nice person either, but ... well playing the rules, well we know what he ended up as.

Any action by Iran will be the wrong one I suspect. At least according to the USA and UK.

They cannot have failed to see the value of even letting in inspectors and being a good non terrorist supporting regime.

I note North Korea with the bomb .... the chances of giving it up, to a group that will welsh on any deal is slim if not absurd.

I note with dismay .... Trump .... AGAIN ... claimed USA would be at war with North Korea.
Is he stupid ? Or just deflecting the latest rape allegation ???

China must have had a cow ..... AMNESIA or stupidity .... extreme overconfidence and looking at all others as sub human stupid people.

Well ... China is actually ahead in military tech in some key areas making USA carrier forces basically a target .... this to one side.

Korea ... Korean war, whilst nearly won, China was not happy and invaded, or supported the North and forced all the might of 20 odd nations back to square one. Even thinking about it, out loud ... would be insane. HE actually said it ... whilst China is not North Korea, having the USA conducting a military operation on its borders even the stupid can see is NEVER ever going to occur.

Yemen .... it has 7 Arab nations supporting the genocide ... All Sunni .... against Minority Hooti who are Shia Muslim ...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saudi_Arabian...ention_in_Yemen

and ... wait for it ... Academi which is mercenaries .... USA ones called formerly [b]Blackwater[/b]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Academi

I can count about 10 weapons Iran has that, well ... made me blink. They are masters at copying tech and this one ... from 2006 ... a 200 knot rocket torpedo ... which instead of having a say 20-30 knot advantage over a warship running to evade .... it has a 160 knot catch-up speed.

It is going to be a hoot .... sadly ... that's what they call it and its mounted I believe on various things ... not just fast attack boats but well other missiles which, well .... I suggest the Carrier force moves 2,000 km offshore. Unlikely they do get through, but .... 3,000 odd other modern torpedo and 30 subs ....

The sheer stupidity of Custer at little big horn, his arrogance and contempt, mixed with a dummy running the show who is indifferent to 300,000 Yemen people being slaughtered and likely a million next year is where USA policy is right now. So too .... UK and by silence ... Australia.

Enjoy ...

Some background .... on it ...
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/b...-knot...ant-match-56767

And pictures

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=83mDZrAyWbc
Please Australia .... do not send our brave sailors and soldiers there. Mr Potato head PM .... WAKE THE HELL UP !!

This is just one of the 10 identified things Iran has got. It happens when you are ... used for350 well documented VERIFIED BY THE UN nerve gas attacks and plead for help .... numerous times to the UN !! Ignored and blocked by UK and USA ....



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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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Mork
post Posted: Jul 1 2019, 11:12 AM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Jul 1 2019, 09:21 AM

This was the cartoon about trump's complete indifference to all the loss of life he is encouraging.
The canadian artist apparently lost his job after publishing.
Attached File  D_APaqAXYAAAnVy.jpg ( 346.4K ) Number of downloads: 4



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kahuna1
post Posted: Jul 1 2019, 09:21 AM
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I am at a loss for words.

Yemen, 300,000 likely die this year.
Systematic genocide in place and fully supported.


I pray for our brave soldiers who well ... follow orders. Gallipoli was fun being landed on a cliff face instead of gently sloping rise ... they fought with dignity and distinction, so too many places ,,,, Rats of Tobruk ... Kokoda and 70 other places

Lest we forget ...
Our leaders, to be blunt ... following as always .... our darkest death march and Burma railway line whilst being starved was ... inhumane.... and close to an extermination camp

Yemen compares. Even Obama stopped selling weapons briefly to Saudi Arabia

Not Trump .///

Genocide .... its just business ...... nothing personal.
300,000 this year .... 1 million next.

Even Trumps senate tried stopping sales ... he Vetoed the senate. I kid you not.


Trumps motto ... now the idiot is running the show ....
Genocide .... its just business ...... nothing personal.
Genocide .... its just business ...... nothing personal.




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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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