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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
mullokintyre
post Posted: Today, 05:13 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Yesterday, 11:21 AM

Trumps attack on Powell is misguided, but not for the reasons that he is Trump.
The US Fed has always done what it thinks is best for the big end of town.
Whether it thinks that by making the powerful and the wealthy(usually an intersecting set) even more powerful and wealthy, then some of the wealth (but never the power) t will trickle down to the less well off, or it just doesn't give a F$*^ about the folk below it is a moot point.
I am inclined to latter view.

Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Yesterday, 11:21 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Yesterday, 11:16 AM

Trump launches attack on Federal Reserve chairman
QUOTE
Mr Trump also tweeted a furious and highly personal attack against the Federal Reserve and chairman Jerome Powell on Friday, fuming that the Fed "did NOTHING!" and wondering who is "our bigger enemy" — Mr Powell or China's leader.

The outburst came after Mr Powell, speaking to central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, gave vague assurances that the Fed "will act as appropriate" to sustain the nation's economic expansion.

While the phrasing was widely seen as meaning interest rate cuts, he offered no hint of whether or how many reductions might be coming for the rest of the year.

Mr Powell had barely finished speaking before Mr Trump escalated his criticism of the Fed, which he has repeatedly accused of keeping rates too high.

For months, the President has in particular ridiculed Mr Powell, who was his own choice to lead the Fed, an independent agency.

"As usual, the Fed did NOTHING!" Trump tweeted, adding, "We have a very strong dollar and a very weak Fed."

"My only question is, who is our bigger enemy, Jay Powel (sic) or Chairman Xi?" — a reference to Xi Jinping.

Many economists have expressed growing alarm about the President's criticism of the Fed as an intrusion on its independence and a threat to its credibility.

AP/ABC

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-24/dona...ection=business

Hedgeye on Powel

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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Yesterday, 11:16 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 17 2019, 04:37 PM

Buckle up for another bumpy ride on the ASX on Monday

Trump Says He’s Poised to Escalate China Trade War Within Hours
By Joshua Gallu and Shawn Donnan
August 24, 2019, 12:51 AM GMT+10 Updated on August 24, 2019, 6:27 AM GMT+10
Tweet follows new round of tariffs on U.S. soybeans, cars
Trump says he ‘hereby ordered’ U.S. firms to leave China

QUOTE
President Donald Trump signaled he may escalate the trade war with China in the coming hours after the country’s latest round of tariffs, firing off a new demand that U.S. companies seek alternatives to producing goods in China.

“I will be responding to China’s Tariffs this afternoon. This is a GREAT opportunity for the United States,” Trump tweeted Friday, after China threatened to impose additional tariffs on $75 billion in American goods, including soybeans, cars and oil.


QUOTE
U.S. stocks fell after Trump’s remarks, with the S&P 500 Index dropping 2.6% on the day. Technology stocks were hardest-hit. Treasuries rallied.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...l-or-china-s-xi



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Aug 23 2019, 08:50 AM
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Seems like the Employment figures are not quite as rosy in the US as we may have first thought.

From Market Watch
QUOTE
Turns out hiring wasn’t nearly as strong in 2018 and early 2019 as the government initially reported — by about a half-million jobs.

The economy had about 501,000 fewer jobs as of March 2019 than the Bureau of Labor Statistics initially calculated in its survey of business establishments. That’s the largest revision since the waning stages of the Great Recession in 2009.

The newly revised figures indicate the economy didn’t get a huge boost last year from President Trump’s tax cuts and higher federal spending. They also signal the economy is a bit weaker than previously believed and could give the Federal Reserve even greater reason to cut interest rates in September.

“This makes some sense, as the 223,000 average monthly increase in 2018 seemed too good to be true in light of how tight the labor market has become and how much trouble firms are said to be having finding qualified workers,” said chief economist Stephen Stanley of Amherst Pierpont Securities.

The average 223,000 monthly increase in employment in 2018 — the strongest in three years — could be trimmed to around 185,000, economists estimate.

Fewer jobs were created in restaurants, hotels, retailers and professional business services. Leisure and hospitality employment was reduced by 175,000, business services by 163,000 and retail by 146,400.


These figures come out once the Tax records are in a nd the BLS can check real employment changes against their survey estimates.
As someone who puts little credence on the wages figures put out by the ABS here in OZ, I was surprised to read that in most years the adjustments made to the BLS figures are around the 0.1% of the total non farm employment, pretty good by anyone's standards. These newly released figures were still only o.3% adjusted. Still pretty damn good I would have thought.
So although a revision downwards of 500,000 jobs seems huge, it turns out to be little more than a rounding error in the US.

What will be a little more important perhaps , is what the annual wages growth was for 2018.
Not sure when that gets released.

Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 17 2019, 04:37 PM
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Wall Street ends sharply higher on German stimulus optimism
Stephen Culp
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rebounded on Friday as an ebbing bond rally and news of potential German economic stimulus brought buyers back to the equities market, closing the book on a tumultuous week.

QUOTE
While all three major U.S. stock averages ended the session higher, they still logged their third consecutive weekly losses, having been rattled since Monday by growing U.S.-China trade animosity, simmering geopolitical tensions and signals from the bond market that sparked fears of impending recession.

Germany’s coalition government is willing to suspend its balanced budget rule and take on debt, according to Der Spiegel magazine, raising hopes that Europe’s largest economy could steer itself away from recession and cooling worries over a global economic slowdown.


QUOTE
Rising bond yields gave a boost to rate-sensitive banks, sending the S&P 500 Banks index .SPXBK up 2.6%

The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI rose 306.62 points, or 1.2%, to 25,886.01, the S&P 500 .SPX gained 41.09 points, or 1.44%, to 2,888.69 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 129.38 points, or 1.67%, to 7,895.99.

read more - https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stock...m-idUKKCN1V613R



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 15 2019, 11:03 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 15 2019, 10:52 PM

Yield curves not the only problem

China Signals U.S. Tariff Delay Not Enough to Stop Retaliation
Bloomberg News
August 15, 2019, 7:08 PM GMT+10 Updated on August 15, 2019, 8:43 PM GMT+10
Committee that’s overseen retaliation issues statement
China says U.S. broke agreements between Trump and Xi
QUOTE
China called planned U.S. tariffs on an additional $300 billion in Chinese goods a violation of accords reached by Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, signaling an American move earlier this week to delay some of those levies was not enough to stave off retaliation.

The new 10% tariffs have taken the U.S. and China off the track of resolving their dispute through negotiation, the State Council Tariff Committee, which has overseen tit-for-tat retaliation, said in a short statement on Thursday. China “has no choice but to take necessary measures to retaliate,” it said, without specifying what the nation would do.

read more - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...nd=premium-asia



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 


blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 15 2019, 10:52 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Aug 15 2019, 07:09 PM

Here's David Rowe's version of the "inverted yield curve" smile.gif

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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 15 2019, 07:09 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 15 2019, 02:01 PM

Inverted Yield Curve and does it matter?

https://beta-washingtonpost-com.cdn.ampproj...From%20%251%24s

QUOTE
The yield curve has inverted before every U.S. recession since 1955, although it sometimes happens months or years before the recession starts.

Because of that link, substantial and long-lasting inversions of the yield curve are largely viewed as a strong predictor that a downturn is on the way
- can go broke waiting. And is "several years" causal?



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 15 2019, 02:01 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 15 2019, 09:55 AM

Graph showing the "yield curve" in this article - Global markets on 'borrowed time' as the inverted yield curve signals a recession is on the way

QUOTE
Last gasp rally on the cards
While bond markets have become increasingly agitated, equities have remained relatively relaxed — until last night, at least.

That shift in sentiment doesn't mean equities are about to tumble into an immediate death spiral.

The BoAML team says history suggests a "last gasp" rally is likely.


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-15/what...-worry/11415984
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 15 2019, 12:17 PM
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Posts: 6,141
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Australian unemployment rate steady as economy surprises with 40,000 extra jobs
QUOTE
Key points:
The ABS estimates 41,100 jobs were added in June, almost three times what economists generally expected
But the participation rate rose again to a record high of 66.1 per cent, meaning unemployment remained stuck at 5.2 per cent
Job ads figures point towards a future slowdown in employment growth, with many economists expecting unemployment to rise

read more - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-15/unem...s-data/11416880



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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