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Gold, Discussion
joules mm1
post Posted: Today, 12:56 PM
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In Reply To: joules mm1's post @ Oct 16 2019, 07:27 PM

trade ideas
the trending thing is not happening for either BTO's or STO's
friday looked like it held a sell but immediately recovered but that recovery had no follow-thru, but, clearly, there was intent to accumulatethe question is now what signals are there that there is enough liquidity to flip from sideways sell to break-out bid

we appear to be on a large chop fest which is good when adjusted-to, within what is a standard bullflag, falling thru the "initial" channel or breaking above the channel will probably bring some momo but i think more likely downside than up, given how hard it is to attract new money to all the money that is already in the BTO game it would require the extreme hedgers short to reverse, what's more likely is a chop thru the roof of the channel to retap and make a secondary high giving major hedgers to get set again and convince the BTO crowd an "incontrovertible" trend (this has already been declared recently by an in-house guru)

....cough

if we revisit the simple ABC where C only just over-extended the 1:1 ratio of A (100% same-length price swing) then we have two larger ideas that favour the BTO's
what does favour the STO's is the extreme positions in the COT which is still being pared back, the more it's pared back the more this favours the BTO's
if we look back as an analogue we can see other occasions when the orthodox idea of a simple ABC pullback appears bullish but simply falls to bits and on those occasions the COT has not had such an extreme positioning of hedgers who are in STO's and managers who are in BTO's, this implies, from my perspective, either we are in for many more weeks of this sideways to down chop, which is fine now i've moved to a open-it/close-it mindset, or, we are about to get a major sell signal, the strong bounce high is in, the sell trend from sept 2011 is back underway
there is no point in putting up a chart that everyone already sees, the game currently is beyond what everyone sees on a multi hour or multi day basis as is the way with a chop trade


"incontrovertible" or not there is no set-forget signal for trend that is absolute, we need a continuation signal for that, small size to get the whips without unnecessary risk is the way to go for now




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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Oct 16 2019, 07:27 PM
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$xauusd is clearly stair-stepping lower
techno traders will see several nestled head n shoulder patterns levels failing to remount prior highs = trending




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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Oct 12 2019, 08:54 AM
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gold has had a longterm high printed ?
what is golds " Tall Building Index "
try this: This gold card really is a gold card
This hallmarked payment card made of 18-carat gold has been unveiled by the Royal Mint.

However, to acquire one, you'll need £18,750 ($23,547 US).
https://twitter.com/i/moments/1182702648451055622
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the gold toilet seat (recently stolen) obviously not enough.......



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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Oct 11 2019, 11:08 AM
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$xauusd
lacking in momentum but "respecting" the basic initial channel boundaries,

price tried to impel on the fractional deflationary m/m #'s then sold on the hype

Attached Image


USD
CPI m/m
actual 0.0% forecast 0.1% previous 0.1%


USD
Core CPI m/m
actual 0.1% forecast 0.2% previous 0.3%



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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 11 2019, 08:37 AM
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Cryptocurrency backed by Gold
QUOTE
Blockchain, the technology behind bitcoin, Ethereum and Libra will now make it easier for consumers to buy and sell gold that is held in The Perth Mint vaults. The 120-year-old mint, which is the world's largest refinery of newly minted gold, has teamed with InfiGold to develop the Perth Mint Gold Token (PMGT).

"Our aim is to make gold accessible to as many people in as many places as we possibly can in the easiest way possible," The Perth Mint chief executive officer Richard Hayes said.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-11/pert...ection=business



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 9 2019, 10:58 AM
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QUOTE
On 30 August 2019, VanEck Investments Limited announced that it is simplifying the way Australian investors can gain exposure in the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.

Trading in shares of the US Fund are settled by CHESS Depository Interests which are also issued by VanEck Vectors ETF Trust. The Trust on 30 August 2019 has applied to ASX Limited for the shares in the US Fund and corresponding CDI programme to be removed from Trading Status.

Removal of the US Fund shares and its corresponding CDI program is part of a reorganisation which involves the admission of a new Australian domiciled feeder fund, VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF GDX




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: joules mm1  
 


joules mm1
post Posted: Oct 8 2019, 09:01 PM
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back into the upper half of the initial downchannel

in the larger picture we're still printing lower lows and lower lows

breaking the top of the channel would completely alter the outlook, todate most run-ups have been opportunities to sell-into

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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Oct 8 2019, 09:56 AM
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when are random lines on a chart of any use .....when theyre backtested
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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Oct 4 2019, 02:57 PM
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In Reply To: joules mm1's post @ Oct 4 2019, 02:44 PM

edit to the note in the below chart that says "keeping mind the current..." this insert is incorrect

the current news induced spike upwards is from a low, at the base of the new initial downchannel, at that low we can see (in prev charts below) that we are in a bounce from a simple large downwards ABC (of which C = A at 100% symmetry, which is a bullish signal, typical of an interruption to the upwards trend)
the problem i see with this bullish technicality, to hitch a bullish horse on, is several fold
first: the pullback saw no genuine shift in the % of retail bullssecond: all the lifts (except this mornings so far) have been sold-intothird: there has been no endogenous trendfourth: only news spike have chased the offerfifth all price action upwards is overlapping at several context/relative sized swingssixth (and my fave) the COT shows a historic extreme in the manager and retail wanting to get while hedgers are extremes opposing point of view
price getting back below 1503's (88.6% retrace of this mornings ISM non-manu spike), in the front month cfd xauusd contract, would be a big sell signal and currently failure for the Asian session to follow-thru does not bode well for the bid side









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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Oct 4 2019, 02:44 PM
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In Reply To: joules mm1's post @ Oct 4 2019, 01:40 AM

Attached Image


did $xauusd make a failed lower high ?





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. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price
 
 


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