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AUD, Australian Dollar Discussion
early birds
post Posted: Nov 17 2020, 10:15 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Nov 17 2020, 09:51 AM

precious metals , my take is marketers use them as hedging for unknow risk more than anything
don't think we will be able to see inflation for a while.

weakness of green back might jack up basic metals witch is good for our economy. just my thinking!!

bullish on AUD is pure TA [ chart study] , it's not really reliable at current situation. those headline can turn the chart upside down within minutes.....
but what can we do?? sadsmiley02.gif



 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Nov 17 2020, 09:51 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Nov 17 2020, 08:23 AM

Kinda surprised that Gold and silver have not gone up as much as the USD declines.
The AUD is not that much better than any other currency as an investment vehicle, given we are at (almost) zero interest rates and QE'ing at rates similar to all the other CB's.
Just gos to show that much of it is sentiment driven rather than fundamental changes.
Mick



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early birds
post Posted: Nov 17 2020, 08:23 AM
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The US Dollar was under pressure against all of its major pairs on Monday. On the US economic data front, Empire Manufacturing unexpectedly dropped to 6.3 on month in November (13.5 expected), from 10.5 in October.

On Tuesday, Retail Sales Advance for October is expected to increase 0.5% on month, compared to +1.9% in September. Finally, Industrial Production for October is expected to rise 1.0% on month, compared to -0.6% in September.

The Euro was mixed against most of its major pairs. In Europe, no major economic data was released.

The Australian dollar was higher against most of its major pairs with the exception of the NZD.

Looking at Monday's gainers. The AUDUSD traded higher gaining just over 50 pips. Positive remarks regarding Australian interest rates from RBA governor Philip Lowe helped support the AUD. Looking back at the data, the AUD/USD has a tendency to move an average of 14 pips one hour after his speech. The pair ended bullish 60% of the time in the last 10 speeches. On Tuesday the RBA will release their meeting minutes which has an average impact of 21 pips one hour after release with a 58% tendency of being bearish on the pair.

Looking at the chart, the AUD/USD remains bullish after breaking above a declining trend channel on Nov 3rd. The 20 and 50-day moving averages are starting to trend upward. If the pair can break above its short term consolidation with resistance at the 0.734 level we can expect a test of September highs near 0.742 and a continuation of the longer term trend that began in April. A break below 0.715 support would be bearish.

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07315 as i'm typing . looks bullish with other commodities!!



 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Aug 26 2020, 09:49 AM
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Bill Evans predictions are looking ok currently.
AUD back above 72 against the USD.
USD is very much on the nose at the moment.
Mick



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nipper
post Posted: Aug 21 2020, 03:45 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Aug 21 2020, 03:34 PM

and we cannot travel and enjoy foreign climes @ cheap rates



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Aug 21 2020, 03:34 PM
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Westpacs Bill Evans sees the AUD heading northwards against the USD.
he is predicting .75 by year end, and .80 during next year.
He sees the continuing strength of Iron ore as one of the mainstays.
Given that the AUD has already reached the EOY target the bank had set earlier, ya gotta wonder whether there is any credence in their predictions.
The lack of love for the USD is the only reason the AUD goes up.
There is nothing in our economy to warrant such love.
Mick



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mullokintyre
post Posted: Jul 15 2020, 10:28 PM
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AUD pinged through the 70 handle.
Now in territory not seen since December 2019.
Have no idea how high it will go, but there is no doubt that the USD is on the nose everywhere.
Mick



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cooderman
post Posted: Jun 3 2020, 11:03 AM
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Please Administrator, How do I solve this problem.

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Upload failed. Please ask the administrator to ensure the uploads directory is writeable


Aussie GDP at 11.30 am..... may affect AUD pairs. Flying at the moment AUDUSD @ .696s

At the moment , "trend is your friend till....."


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early birds
post Posted: Jun 3 2020, 10:48 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jun 3 2020, 10:34 AM

thanks Mick

AUD keeps up and up as i type. there is another catch for the fast rise AUD , that will put the pressure on our market as a lot of due listed large stocks that have heavy weighing----likes of BHP RIO 4 major banks



 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jun 3 2020, 10:34 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jun 3 2020, 10:04 AM

It all depends on sentiment EB.
On the basis of fundamentals, you wouldn't be buying AUD.
The world heading to recession, so our commodities should be in much less demand, the other two winners Tourism and education smashed, RBA QE ing like every other CB
Still the sentiment is benign towards the AUD.
But then if you want the counterparty to the AUD, what is it?
The USD is crap, the Euro is fast heading that way, where do you go?
The UK pound? The Japanese Yen?
None of them are appealing to me, so I have no idea where to go.
Maybe the AUD will just keep climbing as people desperately seek a safe haven.
I guess we are relatively safe- no riots (yet), stable government (mostly), still exporting lots of iron ore copper etc.
We seem to have smashed that corona curve.
So I guess its onwards and upwards.
Mick



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