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Aged Care Services
nipper
post Posted: Aug 23 2020, 05:11 PM
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In Reply To: alonso's post @ Aug 23 2020, 04:15 PM

It is a funny one. Partner of my brother works in a dementia ward in a home, up on the Tweed. She calls the old bints My second family.
She would pull in more a week if on JobKeeper .




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
alonso
post Posted: Aug 23 2020, 04:15 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Aug 23 2020, 10:48 AM

We have a cleaner from one of the care services. He also works in an aged care facility and nearly every week he regales us with horrific stories and urges us "don't go there".
I intend to die with my chainsaw in my hand riding my mower into the sunset.



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"The optimist proclaims that we live in the best of all possible worlds. The pessimist fears this is true"

"What is prudence in the conduct of every private family can scarce be folly in that of a great kingdom." Adam Smith

Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  triage  mullokintyre  
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 23 2020, 10:48 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Mar 10 2020, 12:27 PM

it would be fair to say Aged Care is a sector worth staying out of, as an individual choice (definitely) and probably as an investment.
QUOTE
... Such is the scale of death and infection in the nation's aged care homes, industry players and advocates for older Australians say the pandemic must be the spark for meaningful reform of the sector... worth the equivalent of 1.1 per cent of GDP.Nearly 300 residents have died so far, mostly in Victoria, and already acute workforce shortages are compounded by more than 1000 infections among staff. Divided accountability between state and federal governments and a sector splintered among private, public and non-profit operators is struggling to cope.
and then some.
QUOTE
The [Corona]virus is a symptom. The overall state of the sector is a longterm chronic disease.

That's the assessment of Terry Barnes, a wellknown consultant and author of the Howard government aged care policy for the 1996 election victory.
It is not any one government's fault. The way I see it, in terms of the politics and the policy, aged care politically has been the Cinderella of the health care system, forever. It does not matter who is in government federally, the squeaky wheels are public hospitals and Medicare. The squeakers of the wheels are powerful lobbies like the Australian Medical Association and the Pharmacy Guild, he says.

He says efforts to reform a system that cares for about 1.3 million people and costs the federal government $20 billion a year usually fail because of the complexity and the fact most voters have other priorities. Aged care lobby groups don't have the pull of their competitors.

Nursing homes are things most people don't want to know about until they absolutely have to, Barnes says. For him, it's a matter of a national culture increasingly subcontracting care for the elderly to the state. A set and forget mindset.
The sector has an historically low paid workforce and faces persistent calls for higher qualifications and staff-to-resident ratios. As of 2019, about 240,000 people live in permanent care around the country, with another 65,000 receiving respite care. More than 106,700 people are cared for through inhome support services, a growing part of the aged care puzzle.


and the players:::::

QUOTE
Non-profit organisations manage almost about 60 per cent of residential aged care services in Australia, followed by private at about 30 per cent and government organisations at about 10 per cent.

The biggest players, including BUPA, Opal, Regis, Estia, and Japara dominate the sector, with the trend to larger facilities for economies of scale. Federal government spending is expected to pass $23.6 billion by financial year 2022, while about a quarter of costs are covered by customers.

One industry analyst says aged care isn't a good way to make money, with more than half of centres not profitable, including those run by churches and charities and not seeking to make money. About 80 per cent of providers revenue comes from the government, with a shrinking pool available, despite a growing cost base. Nursing costs, compliance costs, personal protective equipment costs are all rising but earnings are contracting.

However, a report by the Centre for International Corporate Tax Accountability this month found big operators claiming hardship are also generating large cash surpluses. It said four out of five of the largest non-profit residential aged care operators claimed losses last year while producing at least $26 million in net cash flow.....


https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/austra...20200820-p55npv



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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nipper
post Posted: Apr 20 2020, 02:24 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Oct 10 2019, 10:33 AM

A fundie holding EGH has a view that independent living is coping OK, even if the shareprice hasn't picked up since Covid-19 impact hit
QUOTE
• EGH have seen no changes in occupancy levels to date.
• Systems and processes have been put in place to minimise risk across all EGH villages.
• Total asset value is $0.34 per share with net debt of circa 40% as at 31 December 2019.
• >90% of cash flows are through contracted rental accommodation agreements.

Got to 40c but now hovering around 28c, with little rebound




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
early birds
post Posted: Mar 10 2020, 01:11 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Mar 10 2020, 12:27 PM

remembering ” wall street" ??
GREED---lack of better words--is good! lmaosmiley.gif

joke aside. there is balance between provide basic care and save unnecessary cost for those homes.
that is most of share holders wish for the manege team to do the job. i guess reality is another story, that is why we RC moved into this sector
but with egging population growing explosively , i see the demands . to be ownest with you Asian or not , no one likes live with the odies but a lot of people do respect and love them.
a good quality age care home might be able to solve issue. if some can afford it. i guess a lot of oldies do have property that worth good mount of $$$.....
that is why i jumped into this sectors. but the virus thingy.................. i can only give my self a bitter laugh.... wink.gif

when i did study on both of them i do see they owns a lot of land. esp JHC . at my calculation it sell all land at current price they can pay off their debt and return big mount of cash to share holders
that is why i kinda think that market seems blind to see these valuation at current chaos..............




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mullokintyre
post Posted: Mar 10 2020, 12:27 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Mar 10 2020, 10:17 AM

Howdy Eb,
Unlike most Asian families, older people are seen as a bit of a burden.
The kids/ grandkids are waiting for the old folks to pass on so they get their oldies assets passed on.
For every hard luck story on Tv where family members complain about lack of care, there are a hundred others where the family bicker over the costs of what little service is provided.
When my wife owned a pharmacy, she did a lot of webster packs and home medication reviews, she cane across the greedy side of people.
There were descendants who would argue over a pack of tissues provided for the residents.
So while there is continual pressure on the homes by the uncaring greedy bastards, nothing will change.
Mick



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early birds
post Posted: Mar 10 2020, 10:17 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Mar 10 2020, 06:34 AM

do you have any more infos nipper??

currently i sit on a big loss { nearly 20%] on both EHE JHC. bought them too early after i did deep check on their balance sheets and assets backing .
at their current price if someone jump in for a take over, that would be huge bargain given the assets they've got .
i thought by 2023 23% of australian population will be over 60's that would be a huge tail win for these stocks, but that freaking virus seems ruined my { smarty pants] weirdsmiley.gif

if you know bit more inside news please share it here nipper or any other readers.



 
nipper
post Posted: Mar 10 2020, 06:34 AM
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QUOTE
According to an industry benchmarking report to be released next week by leading aged care consultancy StewartBrown, a staggering 56 per cent of the 1100 individual homes surveyed are already losing money at an operational level.

Experts suggest that if the coronavirus hits Australia as hard as some models predict, and occupancy falls further, then some community aged care and smaller for-profit operators will be pushed to the brink – at a time when everything needs to go right in Australia’s health system.


QUOTE
"Inside one of Australia’s big listed aged care firms, the attitude is to prepare for the worst and hope for the best."




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
beancount
post Posted: Oct 11 2019, 05:34 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Oct 10 2019, 10:33 AM

i agree. EHG has figured out the traditional village model. The rental income is stable at $15.8 Mn, with 91% occupancy.

They are looking at four new acquisition targets to recreate this village model: Terranora, Wynnum, Gympie, and Townsville.

I like the solidity and the plan for growth. It's everything the existing management team can handle.

https://www.eurekagroupholdings.com.au/wp-c...-30-08-2019.pdf

 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 10 2019, 10:33 AM
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QUOTE
Eureka Group Holdings Limited (EGH) is a property asset manager of senior independent living communities in Australia.

EGH focuses on flexible guest and care services with 32 owned villages and 9 villages under management representing 2,182 units.

- EGH seems to have stabilised after the widespread selloff across the sector 2017-18
QUOTE
Eureka Business Model
✓ Owner/Operator of independent rental accommodation with a focus on independent retirees who are completely or primarily supported by the Australian Government pension
✓ Target market represents a significant portion of the growing retirement population
✓ Objective to grow and scale the business, through acquisition of traditional villages and development of existing assets. Portfolio and greenfield developments to follow at a later stage




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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