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Paper Tiger
Posted on: Dec 11 2008, 06:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12

The story at the end of the 10th-Dec-2008

The short term is positively looking nearly not negative blink.gif

Stocks : 78
PTI20 : -10.3
PTI50 : -82.1
PTI100 : -94.9
PTI200 : -82.1

No more reports until mid-January
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Paper Tiger
Posted on: Dec 4 2008, 06:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12

Weekly dump of the numbers, i.e. for Wed 3rd-Dec-2008

Most interestingly, for me at least, is that less companies are meeting the actively traded requirements. There has been a fall off in the number and value of trades on the NZX and this appears to be showing up here.

Short term things less negative, which is the only positive rolleyes.gif

Stocks : 76
PTI20 : -68.4
PTI50 : -89.5
PTI100 : -94.7
PTI200 : -78.9

regards
Paper Tiger
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Paper Tiger
Posted on: Nov 30 2008, 08:25 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12

" I guess those are pretty long time frames that may take weeks rather than days of market optimism to reverse towards anything remotely positive."

The short answer is that it depends. 20 [trading] days is I believe about as short a time frame as is sensible for this short of thing.
Given that the wheels appear to have fallen off the share market and then from you need a couple of weeks or more of serious uptrending to balance the downtrend. However even if you get your uptrend the market can then resume the trajectory of an early Wright Brothers attempt.

rolleyes.gif You have to remember that TA just tells you what happened and the experts can then point back at the tell tale signs they forget to mention at the time. tongue.gif

Still I find it useful to have a quick [arbitrary] summary of what is going on.

regards
Paper Tiger
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Paper Tiger
Posted on: Nov 26 2008, 07:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12

A new low today, presumably in this climate the great worry is that they have their fingers in the airport pie and nobody can afford to catch an airplane any more.
Then you can worry about the public transport changes in NZ.

Meanwhile the energy related assets should stand up well, they usually do.

Hopefully they will find something to buy at a good price in the coming months

regards
Paper Tiger
  Forum: NZX

Paper Tiger
Posted on: Nov 26 2008, 07:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12

Today's announcement of improved rental returns generated a bit of turnover.

I find it surprising the discount that is being applied to property trusts in general.
What with the NAV and the dividend yield, it appears the end of the civilisation has been priced in.

Presumably they will start to lose a tenant or two in the next year as the ripples spread over the coming months...

regards
Paper Tiger
  Forum: NZX

Paper Tiger
Posted on: Nov 26 2008, 06:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12

One week on and things have not improved:

My statistics for Wed 26-Nov-2008
Number of companies [meeting trading requirements]: 81
PTI20 : -80%
PTI50 : -90%
PTI100 : -88%
PTI200 : -78%

Although things can turn quickly there appears to be very little confidence around the NZ equity market at the present time.

regards
Paper Tiger
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Paper Tiger
Posted on: Nov 21 2008, 06:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12

Summary says "A satisfactory result" and "Trading into our third quarter, traditionally our strongest, has been encouraging"
I do wish they would not hype things up so much. rolleyes.gif

Increased revenue, increased profit, increased dividend. It might be worth it's share price cool.gif
  Forum: NZX

Paper Tiger
Posted on: Nov 20 2008, 02:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12

The half year announcement will be soon, we will see what they have to say about the future.
  Forum: NZX

Paper Tiger
Posted on: Nov 20 2008, 01:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12

Hi Lizard

I, or rather one of my computers, does the work automatically each night. I am not aware of the same thing being available publicly.

I agree that this is all rather ugly but the crisis in confidence will eventually topple it's last domino or the stream of bad news will no longer be news worthy. In the short term we can all cut back drastically on our spending but longer term things need replacing and we like to cheer ourselves up so the wallets will open a little wider. So at some point things will settle down and we can all get on with losing or making money slowly.

The cycle continues. ohmy.gif

regards
Paper Tiger
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Paper Tiger
Posted on: Nov 20 2008, 07:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12

I am waiting for until both the PTI20 and PTI50 indexes for the NZX are positive.

The index is made up of those companies where some shares are traded on 75% or more of trading days. For each of these companies the direction of the share price trend over the last 20 (for the PTI20) or 50 days is calculated (Least squares fit on the log of share price, if you are interested). Then subtract the downtrenders from the uptrenders, divide by the number of companies considered and convert to a percentage.
So if all companies are going up we get +100% and if all companies are going down we get -100%.

The figures based on yesterdays close were:

Number of Companies: 85
PTI20 : -46%
PTI50 : -91%

also we have
PTI100 : -79%
PTI200 : -75%

The theory behind waiting for the 50 to turn positive is to avoid jumping in to early. It means I would miss the actual bottom, but then I have missed several already smile.gif

regards
Paper Tiger
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Paper Tiger
Posted on: May 30 2008, 07:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 12

The Song Remains The Same smile.gif

  Forum: NZX

Paper Tiger
Posted on: Feb 13 2008, 09:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 12

It may be trading at a reasonable PE based on last years operating profit (ie. leaving out the restructuring costs) and an even better PE based on best guesses for the coming years profits, but....

It has quite a bit of debt even after assuming the rights issue is fully subscribed and it has never really attracted much of a premium PE even at the best of times and these are probably not the best of times.

regards
Paper Tiger

  Forum: NZX


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