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AUD, Australian Dollar Discussion
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jun 5 2019, 02:34 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jun 5 2019, 02:01 PM

Not this year, going in for a new knee.

Had hoped to put it off for a few years, but time has come says surgeon,

Mick



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nipper
post Posted: Jun 5 2019, 02:01 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jun 5 2019, 01:26 PM

QUOTE
.. hard to read or understand this market...
-time for a O/S holiday?



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jun 5 2019, 01:26 PM
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So, the RBA drops rates and signals there will be more.
The GDP figures out today show the economy is at its slowest since the GFC days.
So what happens to the AUD?? It heads past 70 cents again.
Pretty hard to read or understand this market.
Mick



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mullokintyre
post Posted: Jun 4 2019, 10:47 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jun 4 2019, 09:32 PM

Thanks EB, I have stopped crying now.
The problem is, I just can't see how its going to help.
if they were hoping to drive the AUD down and import inflation, well that failed miserably.
The Housing price falls are only a problem when the equity becomes negative. No amount of interest rate cust are going to help that situation.
The self funded retirees(like me) are curing cos their incomes will drop a bit more.
And if things go really pear shaped and they need to stimulate the economy, they have fewer arrows in the quiver.
If we go to 1% in June, as so many of the experts are saying, they only have four 25 basis point cuts then we are at 0.

Mick




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early birds
post Posted: Jun 4 2019, 09:32 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jun 4 2019, 02:56 PM

Mick
we all get these things wrong from time to time. but i can see your point this time as AUD keeps rally for two days before RBA cut the rate, and keeps upward after RBA did what market expecting them to do....

to me--------------------- RBA shouldn't cut it. but sydney and melbourne housing market down over 10% seems really spooked RBA ------

-what about housing affordability????? what can i say!!! i'm no body after all. sadsmiley02.gif
only can swearing----:"stupid RBA" !!!!! thumbdown.gif



 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jun 4 2019, 02:56 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jun 3 2019, 08:33 PM



QUOTE
And I am going to go against the experts and bet there will be no interest rate rise from RBA 2morrow.
Mick


Well, the untrained monkey got that wrong!.
mick



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mullokintyre
post Posted: Jun 4 2019, 02:06 PM
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Wonder if the fall in retail sales will spur the RBA.
Interesting to note that despite the net balance on goods and services of a positive 13.6 billion , because the net income liability was 16 billion, the current account is still showing a deficit.
When the terms of trade are so much in our favour, and we still have net outflow of currency, we are in sever danger if the drivers of exports fall.
Any sort of drop in price and/or volume of coal or iron ore and we are doomed.

Mick


QUOTE
Australian retailers are continuing to struggle, with sales sliding in April.

Key points:
Retail sales fell in April with household goods and clothing and footwear the hardest hit
Retail sales growth have been poor for more than a year, hit by low wages and worries about falling house prices
The export economy is booming with a record quarter helping to narrow the current account deficit to its lowest level in more than 20 years
Consumers struggling with low wage rises and concerns about job security have kept their wallets shut, with retail turnover falling 0.1 per cent over the month.

The result follows a fairly soft 0.3 per cent rise in March and was far worse than the consensus forecast of another modest rise.

Once again, the household goods sector suffered the brunt of the downturn.

Sales of household goods fell 0.9 per cent, while clothing footwear and accessories sales were down 1.2 per cent on a month ago.

Australians tended to eat at home more, with food sales up marginally, while there was a substantial decline in spending at cafes, restaurants and takeaway food outlets.

Department stores enjoyed a surprising rebound, fired up by a spate of discounting.

The retail retreat was felt acutely in New South Wales, where turnover was down 0.4 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms — its biggest drop in more than seven years.

Sales also slowed rapidly in Victoria, although picked up in Queensland and South Australia.

BIS Oxford economist Sarah Hunter described the retail figures as "dismal".

"Looking through recent volatility in the series, the trend pace of growth has been stuck at 0.2 per cent a month since August, which clearly highlights the fundamental challenges facing the sector from weak income growth and squeezed margins as a result of competition from online sales," Dr Hunter said.

"There are [also] signs that e-retailers are also being hampered by the challenging domestic conditions — the share of online sales in total spending has largely stagnated over the last twelve months, after previously growing rapidly."

While the retail sector continues to be weighed down by a struggling domestic economy, a record quarter by exporters helped to drive Australia's current account deficit to the lowest level since 1996.

The net balance on goods and services was a $13.6 billion surplus, with exports up $4.2 billion and imports down $514 million.

However, the trade surplus was smaller than the $16 billion net income liability, leaving the current account with a quarterly deficit of $2.9 billion.

"We saw strong goods exports this quarter, with prices up sharply for metal ores and minerals and non-monetary gold," ABS chief economist Bruce Hockman said.

"Iron ore is a significant part of the story owing to domestic factors and broader global supply interruptions pushing prices up."

Net foreign debt edged up by another $5 billion over the quarter to $1.095 trillion.

GDP growth to slow
The stronger than expected net export result, coupled with surprises in public sector spending and business inventory build-up, have led some economists to nudge up GDP forecasts ahead of tomorrow's first quarter National Accounts release.

Capital Economics has raised its forecast for first quarter GPD growth to 0.5 per cent.

"That would be higher than the 0.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter gain in Q4, but still consistent with annual GDP growth slowing below 2 per cent [annually]," Capital Economics' Ben Udy said.

"Overall, today's data suggest that economic activity remained subdued in the first half of 2019, placing increasing pressure on the RBA to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy."

However, ANZ's Felicity Emmett was sticking to a more downbeat forecast of GDP growth at 1.7 per cent — the slowest pace since 2009 in the depths of the GFC.

"The main new pieces of information since our preliminary forecast last week are weaker profits for both large and small businesses, and slightly weaker net exports," Ms Emmett said.

"Strong growth in inventories provided some offset to the weakness elsewhere. Government spending and wages were broadly in line with our forecasts.

"In Wednesday's report, the focus will once again be on the household indicators — consumption and income. Weak retail sales volumes point to relatively modest growth in consumer spending.

"While retail spending accounts for only around 30 per cent of consumption, falling house prices and ongoing soft income growth will have weighed on consumer spending in the quarter."






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mullokintyre
post Posted: Jun 3 2019, 09:00 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jun 3 2019, 08:37 PM

Ya got me there Nip, went searching for a Newspoll of Interest rate movements and found the link below.
For all of 2018, the average of experts tipping the next rate movement was a rise was over %80.
Three months later in March 2019, it was down to 25%.
Despite such swings, there has been no interest rate movements in that time.
Economists are really no better than trained monkeys ( one rung above me).
Mick

Next Interest movement



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nipper
post Posted: Jun 3 2019, 08:37 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jun 3 2019, 08:33 PM

obvoiusly not influenced by Newspoll surveys , lol



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jun 3 2019, 08:33 PM
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And I am going to go against the experts and bet there will be no interest rate rise from RBA 2morrow.
Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
 


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