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Commodities, General discussion of commodities
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 22 2019, 12:43 PM
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Copper and Lithium Giant Squeezing Water Rights for Miners
By Laura Millan Lombrana
February 21, 2019, 8:00 PM GMT+11 Updated on February 21, 2019, 11:39 PM GMT+11
QUOTE
Officials plan to more than double number of prohibited zones
BHP and Antofagasta have requested water-rights extensions

read more - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...miners-in-north



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 7 2019, 09:02 AM
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Glencore says heavy rain disrupts operations at two Australian coal mines
Reuters | about 5 hours ago |
QUOTE
Glencore, which is also a major producer of copper and zinc in Australia, said "controlled operations" were continuing at its Queensland copper and zinc businesses in Townsville, Mount Isa and Cloncurry.

http://www.mining.com/web/glencore-says-he...ian-coal-mines/



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 7 2019, 08:55 AM
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Posts: 5,702
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Aussie mining exports broke records in 2018
MINING.com Staff | about 8 hours ago |
QUOTE
The Australian Bureau of Statistics issued a report this week that shows that the country's mining sector set a new record for exports in 2018.

"Australia’s resources exports – including minerals, metals and petroleum – generated $248 billion in revenue. This is the highest-ever annual export value and accounted for 72 per cent of Australia’s goods exports," the Minerals Council of Australia said in a media statement related to the report.

The official trade data also revealed that coal became the number one export earner in 2018. Higher prices and export volumes generated A$66 billion in export revenue.

The MCA brief also highlights gold's performance. In the organization's view, rising production at existing operations and new mines opening up in Western Australia were responsible for the A$20 billion in gold exports registered last year.

When all combined, revenues for the export of mineral resources allowed state governments to collect A$12 billion in royalty payments.

According to the council, besides coal and gold, the current mining boom has also seen an increase in iron ore and gas exports.

"Australia is [also] already the world’s largest producer of lithium and one of the few countries to produce rare earth elements, but more needs to be done to support the development of new mines," MCA's statement reads.

Based on the new record in mining exports, the industry group demanded consistent government policies that encourage further investment and productivity growth.

http://www.mining.com/aussie-mining-export...e-records-2018/




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 29 2019, 02:32 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jan 28 2019, 11:21 AM

Aluminium poised to rally as speculators cover short bets
QUOTE
Aluminium has powered higher in recent weeks, and despite a bearish outlook for base metals, could extend its advance amid a rapidly accelerating short-covering rally.

On the London Metal Exchange on Monday (Tuesday AEDT), aluminium fell 2.7 per cent to $US1867 a tonne after the United States lifted sanctions against Russia's Rusal, and China reported weaker industrial profits for a second month.

read more - https://www.afr.com/markets/commodities/alu...20190115-h1a2ij



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 28 2019, 11:21 AM
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Posts: 5,702
Thanks: 2126


U.S. lifts sanctions on Rusal, other firms linked to Russia's Deripaska

QUOTE
Trump administration officials, and many Republicans who opposed the effort to keep the sanctions in place, said they worried about the impact on the global aluminum industry. They also said Deripaska’s decision to lower his stakes in the companies so that he no longer controlled them showed that the sanctions had worked.

Rusal is the world’s largest aluminum producer outside China. The sanctions on the company spurred demand for Chinese metal. China’s aluminum exports jumped to a record high in 2018.

read more - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russ...a-idUSKCN1PL0S1



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 18 2019, 11:26 AM
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China’s slowdown is miners' single biggest fear this year — report
extract
QUOTE
A worsening of the ongoing economic slowdown in China, consumer of about half the world’s commodities, is the single biggest challenge mining and metals companies face this year, a new survey of senior executives shows.

Beijing-related worries have already dragged industrial metals prices along and increased future demand concerns so far this year. This has led some to question whether the country’s government is doing what’s needed to stop the downward trend.

“This really is the big question for the current year, and the jury is still out,” BMO analyst Colin Hamilton said in a note earlier this month. “We anticipate the measures taken will start to yield results towards the end of the first quarter.”

Based on answers from 51 senior executives, lawyers White & Case say that trade tensions, which have ramped up due to US President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies with Beijing, are the second largest challenge for the mining industry in 2019, with 20% of the respondents indicating so.

Markets seem to have absorbed the impact of the current raft of trade barriers — US import duties on steel and aluminium, and defensive safeguards from the EU and elsewhere in the world — and there is cause for optimism. But White & Case’s survey results indicate that the main impact of trade tensions this year will be on speculative pressure on commodity prices, rather than any erosion of underlying demand for the hard commodities.

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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 


blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 16 2019, 11:48 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jan 15 2019, 10:46 AM

Predicting the rise/fall of commodities may be a "mugs game", but then so too is predicting the rise/fall of stocks/markets biggrin.gif but we still do it.

Perhaps Rick Mills dad's description below is apt? Anyway, here's Ricks view on commodities heading into 2019 - we won't know until 2020 if he got it right

QUOTE
The markets are up and down like a bride's nightgown, as my dad used to say, bitcoin is in the toilet, and tech stocks, once as steady as the banks, are as unreliable as an old Apple computer. If you’re reluctant to dip your toe back into the stock market, you’re not alone.

‘The Hunt for Red October’ was a great movie but nobody thought ‘Red October’ would actually happen. In October it did. Anyone that was invested saw their equities turn as red as a Russian submarine commander. The S&P 500 churned. When the calendar mercifully turned to November, the benchmark US stock index had fallen 8.5%, the worst month since February 2009 and the ugliest October since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. The Dow and the Nasdaq were equally pummeled.

And then it kept going. December was the worst month since the Great Depression. The financial talking heads couldn’t decide what was going on. The trade war with China, speculation that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in December (it did) and slowing global growth, were all trotted out as culprits. Algorithmic trading and end-of-the-year tax selling also played a role, as did good old profit-taking by retail investors, who figured it was as good a time as any to exit a nine-year bull market

A recent post-mortem pointed the finger at retail bearish sentiment, the partial US government shutdown, and a weakening Chinese economy. Despite improvement so far in 2019, some equity strategists are tempering expectations, thinking that companies’ soon-to-be-reported fourth-quarter-earnings and 2019 outlooks will be anemic.

So where is a smart investor, cash account flush after having sold all their 2018 underperformers, to park their capital in 2019? In a word: commodities. Forget about trendy cryptocurrencies, blockchain and marijuana. We like investing in tangible things that create real jobs, real money and real wealth..


Commodities are the right story for 2019

QUOTE
Conclusion

After an ugly end to 2018, stock market investors are understandably cautious in where they go next. Despite a better start to the markets in 2019, there is still a lot of uncertainty. But investors can get behind a good narrative, and we believe the theme for 2019 is commodities

We have pinned our thesis on three key points: 1/ Commodities are cyclical, and the timing is right to get in now; 2/ The US dollar is falling, and will likely continue to fall or be range bound going forward. A resolution to the trade war between the US and China, and a looser monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (both of which are likely) would weigh on the dollar and be good for commodities; 3/ The need for infrastructure spending is not going to let up. Despite the Chinese economy weakening, Beijing will continue to demand iron ore and base metals for its Belt and Road Initiative and other ambitious megaprojects. India and other developing nations are also in the mix.

The electrification trend we outlined as key to our investment thesis calls for a slew of battery metals - lithium, graphite, nickel and cobalt - along with tonnes of rare earths and copper. And we haven’t forgotten about how we’re going to get all that extra energy needed to make the shift from fossil fuels to electric vehicles: nuclear energy. For this we need uranium.

Put it all together, and 2019 looks to be an excellent year for commodities.

Richard (Rick) Mills


http://aheadoftheherd.com/Newsletter/2019/...ry-for-2019.htm



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 15 2019, 10:46 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jan 15 2019, 10:06 AM

One way of thinking about commodities (being a mug's game, especially for late arrivals hoping to make a few $$s):
QUOTE
In a famous 1980 wager, Julian Simon bet an author of The Population Bomb, Stanford University's Paul Ehrlich, that resources would actually become more plentiful, not less, as the population grew.

....[In a] paper published last month by the ...Cato Institute, Gale Pooley and Marian Tupy extend the results of the bet a quarter-century to the latest data available, while offering a more sophisticated tool for measuring what they call the Simon Abundance Index. In brief, they calculate the cost of commodities by how much time it takes a typical global worker to earn enough money to buy them. The index determines prosperity or shortage at ground level: in the lived experiences of actual human beings.

Measured by global average hourly income, the price of a representative basket of 50 key commodities – food, energy, minerals and so forth – fell by nearly two-thirds between when the bet was made and 2017. Measured by the time it takes to buy the basket, the earth's resources became 380 per cent more abundant as the human population grew by 69 per cent.

My gloomy human reflex almost had me write that resources grew more abundant "despite" the rise in population. In fact, resources grew "because" of the rise in population. We think we know the limits of our resources until human brains discover ways to burst those limits......
by David Von Drehle; The Washington Post

https://www.afr.com/news/economy/why-the-po...20190109-h19vcc



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 15 2019, 10:06 AM
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Macquarie outlines the commodities most likely to slump or soar in the period ahead
DAVID SCUTT
JAN 14, 2019, 9:15 AM

Read more at https://www.businessinsider.com.au/macquari...ChP7yhezTQom.99



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 12 2018, 07:32 PM
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Australia plans deal with U.S. on 'critical minerals', hopes to boost its exports
QUOTE
“This week I will sign a letter of intent with my counterpart ... on critical minerals,” resources minister Matt Canavan said at a mining industry event in Melbourne.

“(This) will mean Geoscience Australia and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) will work closely on exploration, extraction, processing and research and development,” he added, referring to the arms of the respective governments that handle minerals exploration.

Australia hopes to supply more minerals to the United States in the wake of the agreement, said Canavan. He expects to speak with U.S. Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke on Thursday.

“For 14 of those 35 critical minerals, we are in the top five (holders) of world reserves, so they are the ones we’d like to focus on,” he told press at the Melbourne Mining Club event.

That list of minerals includes lithium used in batteries, along with rare earths such as neodymium, used in industrial magnets, and gallium, used to make semiconductors. It also includes bauxite and alumina, which make aluminum.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australi...s-idUSKBN1OB0J7



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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