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How useful is Forecasting (fortune-telling)
triage
post Posted: Jan 18 2019, 10:42 AM
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I think this is a good read from the Irish Times (not intended as a shot at anyone here who is generous enough to share their thoughts and analysis).

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/persona...casts-1.3747774




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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  
 
tombeet
post Posted: Jan 4 2019, 08:09 PM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Jan 4 2019, 06:36 PM

Hi Mark,
Please keep us updated with your predictions, we all appreciate your depth of knowledge as we go through the minefield of Trumponomics?

Cheers
Tom

 
kahuna1
post Posted: Jan 4 2019, 06:36 PM
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Howdy,
well basing a view upon non bias clinical approach and scientific scrupulous based approach I always find helpful.
Hard to do, hard to ... convince anyone of anything ... have a read of some of the oil threads pre GFC and Uranium ... one can present a case, clinically and methodically that, well turns out 100% or close to it accurate, but at the time seems like many if not most of the noise out there.
Of course, fundamentals, Supply and demand vs stupidity or greed, can and will never measure up. Buying say something worth $1- every day in a bear market trading at 50 cents and the $1- value is actually growing at 15% so doubling in 5 years can see the share sit and sit and sit and sit for years of course pre 2000, and then like a new dawn, they go, well they just paid a dividend that was 80% of their price and can pay it every year for the next decade ....
Lots of gems in the old days, now, not so many.

Predictions for 2019 and beyond.
Violent markets punctuated by massive illogical rallies just like in 2008 with the plunge protection team .... gee we have already seen 4% in a few hours ... 5% once ... and splat ... again.
Second, well the republican movement is ... gone for a very long time in Australia.

Third is easy, Low rates for some time, years of it.
All easy ones ...
More difficult ones ? Well ...


another thread .... another time ...




have fun

Cheers Mark K





--------------------
All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  tombeet  BobE  
 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 4 2019, 10:55 AM
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Dwight Eisenhower said,

"Planning is everything, the plan is nothing."



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
joules mm1
post Posted: Dec 15 2018, 10:35 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Dec 15 2018, 11:31 AM

about forecasting

the challenge is not the prediction/forecast of itself (from whomever)

the challenge is the emotive logic one takes on (as the prediction/forecast)

I say, if you do not have a relative reference point to counter the dialogue youre reading and subsequently do not have the tools to challenge the dialogue, then, in the extent of quality, let's say. a peer-reviewed analysis, you cannot offer any opposing idea

that means

your ignorance is filled, the blanks are filled in for you

you are, as one infamous French author made of the 9/11 flights into the towers achieved, you become a witness to ideas, to evidence, so,e of which is perfectly valid of itself, yet, again, within a self-served context and relative perspective

once you own this "evidence" and you become "witness" to its "validity" you are then prone to defending what you have decided is valid

this defence is what i call emotive logic

you may become a buyer of all tops and seller of all bottoms

so you see, responsibility is not with the writer of a forecast, rather, it lays with you to be better than, ahead of, to know more than the forecast offers


2c



--------------------
. . . . . . . . everything has an art.....in the instance of the auction process, the only thing, needed to be listened to; price

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triage
post Posted: Dec 15 2018, 11:31 AM
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Every year Barry Ritholtz posts a spray about the dangers of paying any attention to professional serial prognosticators, and it's that time of year again.

https://ritholtz.com/2018/12/fun-with-forec...g-2018-edition/

The bitcoin predictions are a giggle seeing how it is down under US$4k a pop at the moment but seeing I've never heard of any of those people it may be that they were fringe players just trying to get some attention.


And as far as I'm concerned Peter Schiff totally blew any credibility in 2007/08 when he picked the crash but then based all his predictive recommendations on the greenback crashing, all in with no hedging. Anyone that took his advice would have been smashed. As far as I know he's never owned up to it: he takes credit for calling the crash of course but not getting the greenback totally wrong. That he has rarely been right in the last decade also suggests he is probably not the best analyst to follow.

But that is a weakness for these regular columns by Barry Ritholtz. He only highlights the bloopers, not the clean hits. For instance I am pretty sure that lots of analysts who looked at the bitcoin market closely thought it likely that it would crash. And I know of no gold company that has developed a project based on gold moving to US$10k / oz.


The other weakness with Ritholtz's article is that it does not point out that most / many people read what the prognosticators say to look at the arguments they use to reach their predictions not necessarily the predictions themselves. Jim Rogers has been focused on the growing size and influence of China for more than a decade, Marc Faber has flagged weaknesses in the Chinese financial system for just as long. That China is not the dominant player that Rogers predicted and that China has not had a major crash that Faber predicted does not mean reading their analyses was a waste of effort.




--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  
 


cso1
post Posted: Apr 19 2005, 01:40 PM
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April 18th, 2005

https://www9.asx.com.au/Smg/Ranking

Total number of ranked players 16,183
% of players in profit 2.66%

The ASX competition lasts several months and is roughly halfway through. Players can change their stock selections at any time, yet only about one in 38 is ahead of doing nothing at all from day one.

...

The punters and pundits continue to forecast that what has been doing well in recent months will keep doing well.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/commo...255E643,00.html

"Mr Grigor likes nickel producers with that metal's price staying firm, especially Sally Malay Mining, Independence Group and Mincor Resources. But the real stars would be energy stocks. Oil and gas and uranium players - provided they have a real story - would be buys in this market."

...

Which is interesting given the worst drops in U.S. computer generated P & F "sentiment" indicators in the last week were

http://stockcharts.com/charts/summarycarpet.html

energy and materials (a reading of over 90, as energy had a month ago, is a big, red flag).

 
yogi-in-oz
post Posted: Mar 27 2005, 04:14 PM
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smile.gif

Hi folks,

Further to post below ..... 23032000 was market high.

On 23-24032005, Aussie market made its biggest
two-day point move down for calendar 2005 .....

..... and we should not forget 08 May 2005,
either ..... more trouble in Middle East (Iran?)

happy days

yogi

smile.gif



--------------------
:)


No advice here. If you need advice seek a
professional, as all of the above is the
humble analysis of one techie and astrotrader.
Play it safe, please do your own research.



:)
 
yogi-in-oz
post Posted: Mar 7 2005, 04:33 PM
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smile.gif

March equinox 2005 .. and 06-08 May 2005 .....

Hi folks,

Whenever markets are making new highs,
day-after-day and the forums abound with
positive sentiment, then the contrarians
start looking for the highs ..... 2005 is no
different and many traders will be looking
at world events, to trigger a retracement
to more sustainable levels ......

Two key dates for your astrotrading diary:

20-24 March 2005 = March equinox

06-09 May 2005 - actual cycle - Sunday 08 May 2005

Just a brief comment, about the equinoxes and
solstices or seasonal changes ..... we have a
great opportunity on the March equinox this year,
to observe the anniversary of some key events
in recent market history:

21-23 March 2005 will be 5 years from market
highs, in year 2000 and 2 years from the
invasion into Iraq, in 2003 !~!

Markets may be flat during this period,
but March equinox 2005 will likely be a
significant marker, for the start of
subsequent moves in many markets.

After that, 06-09 May 2005 will also
be worthy of attention - ie ... 45 days on.

..... at this time, in May 2005, we may
expect some resolution to issues raised
by the 9112001 attack on US soil ..... to
put a positive spin on it ..... capture of
Bin Laden himself, perhaps?

More later ..... smile.gif

=====

happy days

yogi

smile.gif




--------------------
:)


No advice here. If you need advice seek a
professional, as all of the above is the
humble analysis of one techie and astrotrader.
Play it safe, please do your own research.



:)
 
david_j_c
post Posted: Mar 2 2005, 03:44 PM
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In reply to: normc on Tuesday 01/03/05 05:24pm

norm,

Thanks for the reply. My post was really just a bit of a mumble about the difficulty of understanding markets where both fundamentals and trading are significant factors (which I suppose is true of most markets, but the degree varies I think). It's not just getting the fundamentals right, or the charts right, but deciding which is in the ascendancy at any time. Of course, you are right about excess cash driving the market up because where else can it go long term (now that property seems to have peaked, it should be even more). I was trying (unsuccessfully) to exclude that because the influence is currently pretty obvious.

I am currently sniffing around biotechs (with a small proportion of my portfolio) because I think I have a slight technical advantage over the average punter. The trouble is that the market is generally so optimistic that most stocks that I can identify as having a good idea, an adequate potential market and a chance of successfully pulling it off already has my best case factored into the share price. Not all, but most.

David

 
 


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