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Coal, Discussion
blacksheep
post Posted: Mar 21 2019, 12:40 PM
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In Reply To: Mags's post @ Mar 21 2019, 11:17 AM

Interesting recent articles about reviving old mines

Terracom Limited - ASX TER - formerly Guildford Coal Limited
Rich listers get boost from former Rio Tinto coal mine bought for $1
A coal mine Rio Tinto sold for $1 is paying big dividends for some of Australia’s largest investors, including rich listers John Singleton, Alex Waislitz and former Leighton Holdings chief Wal King.

The trio are shareholders in junior coal miner TerraCom, which bought Rio's Blair Athol mine in Queensland for $1 in 2016, four years after it had closed. The company has been bringing the Bowen Basin mine back to life and Mr Singleton's Bonython Coal last year underwrote TerraCom's $15 million capital raising.
read more - https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy...320-p515tp.html

In the UK
Coal mining comes back to the UK with $218 million project
QUOTE
A new £165 million (about $218 million) coal mine, Woodhouse Colliery, has been unanimously approved by councillors in the county of Cumbria, in northwest England. The mine promises hundreds of jobs, but also protests by environmental activists.

West Cumbria Mining plans to open the country’s first new deep coal mine next to the site of the former Hag colliery in Whitehaven, which closed down three decades ago.

http://www.mining.com/coal-mining-comes-ba...k-218m-project/



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Mar 21 2019, 11:25 AM
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In Reply To: Mags's post @ Mar 21 2019, 11:17 AM

QUOTE
retail investors been sold a lie?
...well maybe, but according to some, not buying such stocks is going to save the planet , and feel less dirty. So the "first worlders" that are feeling uncomfortable, guilty about their lifestyles seemed to have made a collective decision not to hold and think others shouldn't, as well.

Takes a lot to turn the Queen Mary around.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
Mags
post Posted: Mar 21 2019, 11:17 AM
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Anyone going into coal stocks for a buy and hold?
The way I see it, governments around the world are running massive debts and deficits, I just can't see them transitioning over to other sources as fast as they say they will over the next 10/15 years.
Coal still produces IMO, the most reliable, cost effective source of electricity.
Have retail investors been sold a lie?


 
blacksheep
post Posted: Mar 20 2019, 11:44 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Feb 20 2019, 08:35 PM

Australian coal prices cop a 'belting' as Chinese import restrictions spread
QUOTE
Australian thermal coal exports to China are under increasing pressure, with sources saying import restrictions are spreading to other key ports.

Key points:
Thermal coal shipments may take up to three months to clear customs at some Chinese ports
Australian thermal coal prices are being belted compared to competitors such as Indonesia
Iron ore prices are surging on safety concerns and mine shutdowns in Brazil
The respected industry newsagency Platts reported restrictions targeting Australian thermal coal had spread to the southern port of Fangcheng.

It follows reports last month thermal coal imports were being held up "indefinitely" by customs officials at the northern port of Dalian.

The Platts report quoted unnamed sources saying customs officials were conducting tests for radioactivity on Australian coal.

Platts' source suggested the impact of the new test regime could see coal taking three months to finally clear customs.

"The price movement is not really due to the effect of market forces, but more policy-related," an Australia-based trader told Platts.

read more - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-19/coal...ection=business



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: Mags  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Mar 4 2019, 10:23 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Feb 27 2019, 10:43 AM

Why water and coal won't mix
QUOTE
Here's where the numbers don't quite gel with the Coalition's long-standing commitment to coal.

At such huge expense, for either project to be economical — let alone both together — a large slab of our existing coal fired generators would need to be retired early.

That fact was highlighted in the Tasmanian project's feasibility study, released last week. It states that "the largest single factor" influencing the viability of the project is the timing for coal fired power station shutdowns. And not just a couple.

"The benefits of Marinus Link are likely to be greater than costs when approximately 7,000 MW of the National Electricity Market's present coal fired generation capacity retires, which could occur from the mid 2020's [with early retirement] to the mid 2030s [with retirement at the end of design life]," the report states.

It adds this: "There are plausible circumstances where Marinus Link could be economically feasible from the mid 2020s."

That's a huge amount of coal fired generation to be taken out of the system in a short space of time.

According to Green Energy Markets director Tristan Edis, two previous feasibility studies into the Tasmanian project concluded it didn't make sense until well into the 2030s, because you don't need such massive battery storage unless you plan on having 50 per cent renewables in the electricity system.

The federal government has committed to a 23.5 per cent renewable energy target by 2020 and has argued a 50 per cent target would result in widespread blackouts.

To put the proposed 7,000 megawatt shutdowns into perspective, Victorian coal fired generators produce a little over 4,600 megawatts, NSW pumps out a little over 10,000 megawatts and Queensland a little over 8,000 megawatts.

Mr Edis argues that if the Morrison government backs the Tasmanian project, it would be looking at the equivalent of a complete shutdown of Victoria's coal fired plants plus a fair whack of those in NSW.

If the closures aren't forthcoming, the cable will be a multi-billion dollar-white elephant.

It's a similar story with Snowy 2.0. The feasibility study in that case estimated that even after the retirement of the Liddell power station in the Hunter Valley, a further three large scale coal fired plants need to be decommissioned within the next 14 years.

The Australian Energy Market Operator expects three coal fired plants — Vales Point, Eraring and Yallourn — to close by no later than 2032. Combined, these produce 5,410 megawatts.

That's not enough to make even the Tasmanian project viable and the time frame is way too distant. Put both projects together, and it all spells a pretty bleak outlook for coal.

read more - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-04/how-...ection=business

David Rowe AFR captures "emissions" nicely in this chart



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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 27 2019, 10:43 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Feb 26 2019, 11:00 AM

Coal's perfect storm rattles home to $50B new projects
Bloomberg News | about 2 hours ago |
QUOTE
It’s been a tough few weeks for Australia’s coal industry.

First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change grounds, then one of the world’s largest producers Glencore Plc capped output growth, and finally China was seen to be slowing down Australian imports.

The developments are symptoms of the fuel’s decline and likely signal headwinds for the industry in Australia, the world’s second-biggest supplier of coal used for power generation and steel making, where the government estimates some A$70 billion ($50 billion) of new projects are in the pipeline.

read more - http://www.mining.com/web/coals-perfect-st...b-new-projects/
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YAL shares shot up yesterday, on the back of their 2018 FY results. Most other coal stocks are weathering the storm - for the moment anyway.
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 


blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 26 2019, 11:00 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Feb 20 2019, 08:35 PM

Actually, Australia should be panicked about coal
Bloomberg Opinion | about 3 hours ago |
extract
QUOTE
Prime Minister Scott Morrison said that speculation China was punishing Australia for its ban on 5G equipment from Chinese national champion Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. would cause “needless anxiety and concern, particularly in our mining and resources sector.”

Morrison is wrong, though. Australia’s mining sector needs to feel a lot more anxious than it seems to be.

Even if China wasn’t trying to send a political message to Australia, the idea that it might be cracking down on imported coal for its own reasons should be just as worrying. Exporters of high-quality coal, such as Australia, seem confident that demand will stay healthy even if some countries make heroic cuts. It’s expensive to substitute away from such coal, so they assume that nobody will ever do it.

Even if there’s no immediate threat, however, such complacency is frankly misplaced. Countries that have poor quality domestic coal are going to balk at paying for expensive coal imports forever. Instead, they will start investing in coal washing, or better quality domestic plants, or will pay a premium for whatever good domestic coal there is. It is that last which is probably motivating China right now. India is actively working on a plan to end coal imports completely.

The writing is on the wall for Morrison and others to read. Last week, the largest supplier of coal for international trade, Glencore Plc., promised its investors it wouldn’t increase production so as to be “resilient to regulatory, physical and operational risks related to climate change.” Financing for new coal assets is increasingly hard to come by; Indian coal miner Adani Power Ltd.’s proposed mine in Queensland is struggling to reach financial closure and nobody knows if support from Indian state-owned banks for the politically exposed company will continue beyond general elections in May.

Hopeful projections for future coal-import demand depend also on the assumption that coal-based generators in countries such as China and India will increasingly switch to high calorific-value coal of the type that Australia exports. That would require actually building new plants, however, and it’s hard to see financing for those being arranged either. India is going through a banking crisis fueled in part by over-lending to the thermal-power sector. Thermal-power plants in India and elsewhere that use cheaper, low-quality coal are already struggling to compete not just with gas-fired plants but also with increasingly affordable renewable energy. Who is going to invest in a new plant that uses expensive, imported coal?

There’s far too much magical thinking in big producer countries such as Australia about the long-term future of coal exports. The internal political and financial dynamics of coal-consuming countries such as India are shifting decisively away from imports. If any jobs are to be preserved in coal mining, we in India are naturally going to try to keep ours. And we certainly aren’t going to pay for anything other than equipping existing plants with better emissions-control technology. (Banks are reluctant to lend even for that, as it happens.)

Australia, which exports about 85 percent of its black coal output, should try to be realistic. One problem, as we know from the 2016 U.S. presidential election, is that coal mining makes for powerful politics as a symbol of a “strong,” job-producing economy. One commentator wrote in The Australian last week that “coal is essential to Australia’s standard of living.” While the opposition Labor party is mounting a strong challenge to the incumbent coalition government, coal-mining marginal constituencies are its Achilles heel.

Yet, the best thing that can be done for the coal-export industry and all those who depend on it is to prepare for its end. Because that is, one way or another, looking inevitable.

(By Mihir Sharma)

http://www.mining.com/web/actually-australia-panicked-coal/



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 20 2019, 08:35 PM
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China Delays Coal Imports From Australia as Tensions Simmer
Bloomberg News
February 20, 2019, 3:59 PM GMT+11 Updated on February 20, 2019, 5:12 PM GMT+11
QUOTE
Mainland ports taking up to 40 days to clear cargoes: CCTD
Timing spurs speculation delay linked to political frictions


QUOTE
BHP Group, the largest mining company and an exporter of coking coal to China, said the measures are a reflection of how China wants to manage its consumption of domestic and imported coal and aren’t targeted at Australia. “These pertain to China’s trade with the whole world,” Andrew Mackenzie, chief of the Melbourne-based company, said on Tuesday after the miner posted earnings. “It’s not particularly Australian in its nature.”

“I don’t believe for one moment this is linked to some of the higher level issues of relationships between China and the rest of the world, and including with us,” Mackenzie said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...s-tensions-brew?



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Feb 20 2019, 07:29 PM
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Posts: 5,308
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Feb 20 2019, 07:09 PM

the market might (although tobacco companies are very profitable)
QUOTE
Australia’s largest coal producer, Glencore, will abandon the pursuit of large coal acquisitions and freeze production at current levels to help address climate change concerns following pressure from investors including major Australian superannuation funds for the fossil fuel to be phased out.

The Swiss-based resources giant, headed by billionaire Ivan Glasenberg, says it will cap its global thermal and coking coal production at the current level of about 145 million tonnes after holding talks with the Climate Action 100+ initiative which controls $US32 trillion ($45tn) in global investment. Glencore’s Australian mines account for nearly 100m tonnes of its global volumes, underlining the impact it may have on major new mines being delivered in Queensland and NSW.

“To deliver a strong investment case to our shareholders, we must invest in assets that will be resilient to regulatory, physical and operational risks related to climate change,” Glencore said in a statement today. “To meet the growing needs of a lower carbon economy, Glencore aims to prioritise its capital investment to grow production of commodities essential to the energy and mobility transition and to limit its coal production capacity broadly to current levels.”

The plan to effectively end the pursuit of new coal mines by one of the world’s top producers signals a broader rethink among miners over their future exposure to the highly polluting fossil fuel............
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/m...580981e8a340ced



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: blacksheep  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 20 2019, 07:09 PM
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Someone should tell Adani - and our government biggrin.gif

Coal going from winner to loser in India's energy future: Russell
Clyde Russell
5 MIN READ

QUOTE
NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India’s demand for electricity is expected to double in the next two decades, and coal has been long forecast to be the fuel of choice for power generation. But this may no longer be the case.


QUOTE
No, the main reason coal may battle to fuel India’s future energy needs is that it’s simply becoming too expensive relative to renewable energy alternatives such as wind and solar

In recent months, power supply auctions have shown that renewables can be offered at less than 3 rupees (4 U.S. cents) per kilowatt hour, a tariff that coal-fired generators have difficulty matching.

There is also zero chance that new coal generators can produce electricity at rates competitive to renewables, given higher capital and operating costs..


QUOTE
A further issue for India’s coal sector is that banks are becoming reluctant to lend to new ventures, and insurers are also becoming less keen to offer cover.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-column-r...l-idUSKCN1Q90OP



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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