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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
blacksheep
post Posted: Today, 01:41 PM
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Posts: 5,259
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Yesterday, 07:48 PM

China's economy cools in the fourth quarter, 2018 growth hits 28-year low
Kevin Yao
QUOTE
BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s economic growth cooled slightly in the fourth quarter from a year earlier as expected, weighed down by weak investment and faltering consumer confidence as Washington piled on trade pressure, leaving 2018 growth the weakest in 28 years.

Signs of further cooling in China — which has generated nearly a third of global growth in recent years — are stoking worries about risks to the world economy and are weighing on profits for firms ranging from Apple to big carmakers.

Fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) grew at the slowest pace since the global financial crisis, easing to 6.4 percent from 6.5 percent in the third quarter, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected 6.4 percent.

That left full-year growth at 6.6 percent, the slowest rate of expansion China has seen since 1990. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected it to cool to 6.6 percent from a revised 6.8 percent in 2017.


read more - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-ec...w-idUSKCN1PF04A

China's economy meets growth forecasts but analysts remain doubtful
By business reporter Michael Janda
Posted 18 minutes ago
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-21/chin...stment/10731672



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Yesterday, 08:26 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Yesterday, 08:14 PM

QUOTE
The suits are pressed and the jets are gassed up, as global political and business leaders prepare to converge in Davos for the World Economic Forum.

To prep the wide variety of world leaders attending the summit, the organization has just published its most recent edition of the Global Risks Report. The highly anticipated annual presentation puts the world’s most pressing issues into focus, giving a sense of what is top-of-mind for global decision-makers.

Below are the top five risks highlighted in this year’s report.


The complete 14th Edition of The Global Risks Report 2019 can be accessed here - > http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Ri...Report_2019.pdf
Attached File(s)
Attached File  global_risks_2019.png ( 50.35K ) Number of downloads: 0

 




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Yesterday, 08:14 PM
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Posts: 5,259
Thanks: 2064


World Economy Wobbles on Eve of Davos With Politics to Blame
By Simon Kennedy
January 19, 2019, 11:00 AM GMT+11
Dimon, Merkel, Sandberg among the delegates attending WEF
Chinese data, IMF forecasts to set the tone at meetings

QUOTE
“The mood is going to be much darker than a year ago,” said Nariman Behravesh, IHS Markit’s chief economist, who will be in Davos. “A recession isn’t imminent, but as economies slow it wouldn’t take much to topple growth.”

High in the Alps, the global elite will be feeling low about the economic outlook.

The ski resort of Davos, Switzerland, will again play host next week to the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting, drawing JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Jamie Dimon, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Facebook Inc. Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg and Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan. Domestic political strife is forcing U.S. President Donald Trump and U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May to stay home.

Those still going will do so as their economies lose momentum just a year since they enjoyed a rare synchronized upturn. While few predict a recession, companies are the most bearish since 2016 as economic data falls short of expectations and political risks mount amid an international trade war, U.S. government shutdown and Brexit.

“The mood is going to be much darker than a year ago,” said Nariman Behravesh, IHS Markit’s chief economist, who will be in Davos. “A recession isn’t imminent, but as economies slow it wouldn’t take much to topple growth.”

The summit formally begins on Tuesday although the tone will be set a day before when the International Monetary Fund publishes new growth forecasts and China releases data likely to show expansion in 2018 was the slowest in almost three decades. The Bank of Japan and European Central Bank also have meetings next week at which policy makers may recast their outlooks.

“The evidence is consistent with slowdown rather than slump, but downside risks have increased,” said Tom Orlik, chief economist at Bloomberg Economics.

read more - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...litics-to-blame?



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Yesterday, 07:48 PM
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Posts: 5,259
Thanks: 2064



China's looming great wall of debt may have 'major global implications'
By Tasha Wibawa
Posted earlier today at 5:49am
QUOTE
While many countries struggled following the 2008 global financial crisis, China appeared as though it had largely escaped unscathed.
But observers are becoming increasingly concerned Beijing will struggle to repay an ever-increasing mountain of debt, with potential detrimental consequences for the global market.
Key points:
China's rising levels of debt mostly attributed to a "credit boom" post GFC
Many large infrastructures are struggling to generate positive revenue
Chinese local government debt has been called an "iceberg" with "titanic risks"

read more - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-20/chin...ection=business

China set to post slowest growth in 28 years in 2018, more stimulus seen
QUOTE
China is expected to report on Monday that economic growth cooled to its slowest in 28 years in 2018 amid weakening domestic demand and bruising U.S. tariffs, adding pressure on Beijing to roll out more support measures to avert a sharper slowdown.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-ec...n-idUSKCN1PE02Z



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Yesterday, 03:02 PM
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Posts: 5,133
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Australian share market is set for a solid gain at the open after reports the US and China are prepared to make concessions in trade talks pushed global markets higher.

The futures market predicts the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 will climb 43 points, or 0.7 per cent, when trade resumes on Monday.

"We'll share in the rally (and) it's all because of the optimism over the US-China trade talk - it looks like progress," CommSec chief economist Craig James told AAP on Sunday.

Oil is up, too, as OPEC trims production



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 19 2019, 01:47 PM
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Posts: 5,259
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China Offers a Path to Eliminate U.S. Trade Imbalance, Sources Say
Bloomberg News
January 19, 2019, 2:19 AM GMT+11 Updated on January 19, 2019, 5:47 AM GMT+11
QUOTE
Buying spree offer was made at Beijing talks in early January
U.S. officials said to be skeptical, want gap closed sooner

read more - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...trade-imbalance?



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 


plastic
post Posted: Jan 18 2019, 05:12 AM
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Posts: 8,637
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For some reason nobody wants to mention a bank bail in. Time to get your money out of the banks. If I were a squillionaire I'd be buying bank and government bonds.

Like a truck and trailer, house prices and banks' capital needs follow each other. Watch out when the margin called gets called.




https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/ar...jectid=12191958

QUOTE
UBS weighs in on Reserve Bank rules, says mortgage rates could soar





https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/ar...jectid=12191958

QUOTE
Australian house prices drop expected to be worst in the world







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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 17 2019, 08:34 AM
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Posts: 5,133
Thanks: 1901


In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jan 16 2019, 08:45 AM

Brit PM, Theresa May, survived no-confidence motion ... but only just. 325 to 309 .... clearing the way for her to try and cobble together a revamped Brexit deal.

Some of the options outlined here: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-15/brex...s-lost/10716002
No longer facing an election:
- Parliament could reconsider the plan
- So what about a people's vote?
- Could Brexit even be delayed or cancelled?
-??

What a mess



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Jan 16 2019, 08:45 AM
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Posts: 12,256
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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/15/theresa-may...ppens-next.html

what a mess!!! dry.gif



 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 14 2019, 08:22 PM
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Posts: 5,259
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Stocks Fall as China Data Sours, Treasuries Climb: Markets Wrap
By Eddie van der Walt
January 14, 2019, 8:43 AM GMT+11 Updated on January 14, 2019, 8:30 PM GMT+11
Dollar edges lower, pound declines before Brexit vote
Oil retreats; emerging market currencies, shares dip
QUOTE
These are the main moves in markets:

Stocks
Futures on the S&P 500 Index declined 0.7 percent as of 9:19 a.m. London time, the first retreat in more than a week.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.5 percent, the first retreat in a week and the biggest fall in more than a week.
The MSCI All-Country World Index decreased 0.2 percent, the first retreat in more than a week.
The MSCI Emerging Market Index sank 0.9 percent, the biggest dip in more than a week.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dipped 0.1 percent.
The euro climbed less than 0.05 percent to $1.1473.
The Japanese yen jumped 0.3 percent to 108.14 per dollar, the strongest in more than a week.
The British pound declined 0.1 percent to $1.2831.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index fell 0.2 percent.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries dipped two basis points to 2.68 percent, the lowest in more than a week.
Germany’s 10-year yield decreased two basis points to 0.22 percent, the lowest in a week.
Britain’s 10-year yield decreased three basis points to 1.263 percent, the biggest tumble in more than a week.
The spread of Italy’s 10-year bonds over Germany’s rose five basis points to 2.6641 percentage points.
Commodities
The Bloomberg Commodity Index climbed less than 0.05 percent.
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.9 percent to $51.13 a barrel.
LME copper fell 0.8 percent to $5,892.50 per metric ton, the lowest in more than a week on the biggest fall in more than a week.
Gold increased 0.3 percent to $1,293.77 an ounce, the highest in more than a week.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...nd=premium-asia



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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