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MARKET OUTLOOK - Technology, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
mullokintyre
post Posted: Feb 25 2020, 11:43 AM
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Last nights DOW meltdown negated in one swoop all of the gains for 2020.
Now thats a correction.
Mick




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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
nipper
post Posted: Feb 24 2020, 07:33 PM
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QUOTE
Accounting technology giant Xero will head the Australian Securities Exchange's new technology index unveiled today, giving investors the chance to invest in the fastest-growing segment of the market in one trade.

The ASX will launch the S&P/ASX All Technology Index or the S&P/ASX All Tech for short, at a ceremony at the exchange in Sydney, with technology minister Karen Andrews and executives from each of the WAAAX stocks (Wisetech, Afterpay, Altium, Appen and Xero) there for the ribbon cutting.

The index will go live from Monday morning and will be a smaller, localised version of the US's Nasdaq composite index.

The executive general manager of listings and issuer services at the ASX, Max Cunningham, said returns from investing in tech have exceeded the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index in recent years, and this new index would be seen as highly investable.

"There are 20 tech companies with market caps over $1 billion, and the index is a barometer of the general health and performance of that part of the market," he said.
Add Nearmap, and do we have WAAANX?

QUOTE
The number of tech stocks listed on the ASX has doubled from 100 to over 200 in the last five years and the All Tech will have 46 stocks included from Monday morning.

The index does not have a set number of stocks and will be rebalanced quarterly. To qualify, a company must have a market capitalisation of at least $120 million, have a minimum of $120,000 worth of value traded every day, a minimal investable weight factor of 0.3 and a minimum relative liquidity ratio of 30 per cent.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 21 2019, 04:29 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Sep 5 2019, 02:44 PM

not a bad list of things happening in the world. links and graphs to contemplate
https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/10/21/inn...on-free-speech/

Innovation Wrap: Human DNA, Facial Recognition, Free Speech



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 5 2019, 02:44 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 10 2019, 11:27 AM

QUOTE
Insane levels': Can a world where profitless companies are flying last?

Stock market experts have been warning of a tech bubble for years now.

This link : https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/value...long-live-value
puts a countervailing argument about value (pe based analysis), growth (with tech and newly minted high fliers) and momentum (worst of both if you miss the bus!) investing.

It's long but a worthy read; not sure the conclusions are watertight. Demonstrably so.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: Pendragon  
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 5 2019, 02:39 PM
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QUOTE
ETFS ROBO Global Robotics and Automation ETF (ASX: ROBO)

History has shown that it’s hard to pick one particular business that will do well out of a group of potential targets, so why not just invest in the entire group? This exchange-traded fund (ETF) aims to give exposure to robotics, automation and AI companies. It has an annual management fee of 0.69%, which is pricey, but cheaper than many active fund managers.

The ETF’s largest positions, which are all have less than a 2% weighting in the ETF, are ones like NVIDIA, Hiwin Technologies, Zebra Technologies, Faro Technologies, YASKAWA Electric, Harmonic Drive Systems, Intuitive Surgical and Rockwell Automation.

Over the past five years, the index which this ETF is tracking has delivered an average return per annum of 15% – but past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

- but hard to escape the index, as maximum 2% implies at least 50 stocks in this ETF, and you'd have to imagine some dross / slippers and sliders dragging numbers down.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 10 2019, 11:27 AM
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'Insane levels': Can a world where profitless companies are flying last?
extract
QUOTE
Stock market experts have been warning of a tech bubble for years now, but this week's ructions have given fresh impetus to the doomsayers.


QUOTE
The local equivalent of the FANG companies: Wisetech, Afterpay, Altium, Appen, and Xero (known collectively as the WAAAX stocks) trade at well over 100 times forecast earnings.

In fact veteran investor, Roger Montgomery, of Montgomery Investment Management, which manages $1.4 billion, calculates the WAAAX stocks are collectively trading at almost 170 times earnings for the 2019 financial year.

He is among the naysayers on WAAAX and other high growth stocks - some with no earnings profile - which have polarised the local investment community like never before.

"Prices for many listed and unlisted companies have reached insane levels," he says.

"When you compare prices to values, they are so divorced from each other that you can only say that we’re at the end stages where dumb money is willing to pay anything for a piece of this growth."

He thinks the local market is in the final stages of the tech bubble.

"When valuations are this stretched it doesn't take much for the bubble to burst."

Wisetech, a logistics software company, is worth as much as Qantas with a $8.5 billion market cap

By way of comparison, Qantas reported revenue totalling $16.6 billion in 2018 and a net profit of $1.14 billion. Wisetech recorded revenue of $221 million and a net profit of $40.8 million.

Another tech darling Altium, which plans to dominate the rather obscure but lucrative world of design software for printed circuit boards, is worth a billion dollars more than JB Hi-Fi.

That is despite Altium reporting a profit roughly one-seventh that of JB Hi-Fi's $234 million.

The long term price to earnings ratio for S&P 500 shares is around the 15 mark. Which means that investors have generally been willing to pay $15 on the share price of a company for every dollar of profit.

Atlassian, the Nasdaq-listed software group founded by tech billionaires Mike Cannon-Brookes and Scott Farquhar, reported in July that its revenue had finally exceeded $US1 billion for the financial year just ended.

The company is valued at $US33 billion after the recent share price fall. It means investors are paying $33 for every dollar of revenue it generates.

read more - https://www.theage.com.au/business/companie...808-p52f3d.html



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 

sentifi.com

Share Cafe Sentifi Top themes and market attention on:


nipper
post Posted: Jul 26 2019, 11:14 AM
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Technology

QUOTE
"In a world where every company is a software company, developers will play an increasingly vital role in value creation across every organization."
Satya Nadella, CEO, Microsoft Corp

QUOTE
"When I look at the kinds of private interactions we can make easier, payments may be the most important for the long term."

"So even if it [virtual reality] has taken longer than we expected to deliver this at scale, I continue to believe that this will be one of the most important contributions we make to the way we all use technology over the long term."
Mark Zuckerberg, CEO, Facebook Inc

QUOTE
"I believe this WiFi 6 [next generation WiFi] upgrade is significantly more appealing than the previous upgrades. This is akin to replacing a 2-lane freeway with an 8-lane freeway."
Patrick Lo, CEO, Netgear Inc [multinational manufacturer of network hardware]



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Jun 22 2019, 06:21 PM
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QUOTE
The US market is enamoured with loss-making companies. Stocks to have listed in New York in the past few months that don’t make money include ride sharing companies Uber and Lyft and fake meat company Beyond Meat. This week’s new entrant is the loss-making collaboration software house, Slack.

The price-to-sales ratios of these are: Slack 45, Uber 10.5, Lyft 11 and Beyond Meat 113. Beyond Meat is growing so fast its forward price-to-sales ratio is 50
ring that Bell?



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
lgrif
post Posted: Jun 7 2019, 04:51 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jun 7 2019, 12:32 PM

How well will "all those tech & it jobs" pay. Carpenters on the" Queens Wharf" project will earn ~ $280000 pa & Sweepers ~ $160000 to $180000 pa. & on agreements due for renewal, apparently the CFMMEU want Queens Wharf conditions to be the standard.


 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jun 7 2019, 12:32 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jun 7 2019, 11:40 AM

Hopefully, all those tech and It jobs to be created can be taken up by ex construction workers.

T
QUOTE
he construction sector's downturn accelerated last month, with a leading industry survey pointing to the sharpest decline in activity in six years.

Key points:
Construction activity has been contracting for nine consecutive months
50,000 jobs were lost last year and another 9,000 in the first three months of 2019
Falling forward orders across most sectors, but particularly residential building, points to ongoing weakness
The Australian Industry Group/Housing Industry Association Australian Performance of Construction Index (PCI) dropped deeper into contractionary territory in May.

It is the ninth consecutive month of contraction and points to more jobs being lost across the sector.

Last year around 50,000 construction jobs were shed. The figures point to another 9,000 being lost in the first three months of 2019.

"This marked a tenth consecutive month of contraction in employment, consistent with the more subdued readings on activity from mid-2018," the survey found.

"It indicates that construction businesses are responding to the ongoing weakness of overall demand conditions by exerting greater caution in terms of their labour recruitment."

Figures from job ad website Seek show that the number of construction positions available fell 16.6 per cent in the March quarter 2019, compared to a year earlier, albeit that was coming off record high levels.

Construction employs around 1.1 million workers and accounts for 9 per cent of total Australian jobs.


Despite that, BLD is up today.
Sometimes markets are weird.
Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
 


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