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IPL, INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED
blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 2 2019, 10:39 AM
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Posts: 6,791
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Revised Guidance and Strategic Review announced today - SP down 1.4% @ $2.78/share

QUOTE
Revised FY19 Earnings Guidance
2 September 2019
This release provides an update on Incitec Pivot Limited’s (ASX:IPL) FY19 earnings
guidance.

IPL’s FY19 guidance, as issued in May 2019, was $370 million to $415 million Earnings
Before Interest and Tax (EBIT),
based on disclosed forward commodity price and foreign
exchange assumptions at that time. EBIT sensitivities to those factors were also provided.
Applying the publicly available actual pricing and foreign exchange rates lowers the FY19
EBIT range to between $321 million and $366 million.1

Following a reassessment of earnings estimates at the end of August, it is currently
estimated that the actual FY19 EBIT will be below this range, mainly due to lower than
forecast ammonia production at Waggaman and lower Fertilisers earnings mainly as a result
of continued drought impacts in New South Wales and Queensland and increased gas costs
at Gibson Island.

As a result of the foregoing, the revised EBIT range for FY19 is estimated to be
approximately $285 million to $295 million
.2

This range excludes approximately $20 million

of one-off items (potential insurance proceeds in respect of the rail outage at Phosphate Hill
and a sale of surplus land in the U.S.), which, if they materialise, could fall into either the
FY19 or FY20 year.

Previous interest expense guidance of $145 million remains unchanged, while the effective
tax rate is likely to be lower at approximately 5%, as a result of the financial impact of the
adverse events during the year.

Further details will be provided in IPL’s FY19 Full Year Results in November 2019.


Total short positions as at 26th August, 2019 = 0.59%
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=ipl
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 16 2019, 11:20 PM
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Posts: 6,791
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Ooops!

Mystery $15m Iran shipment exposes Australian-owned firm to sanctions threat
QUOTE
Exclusive: shipping records and leaked video show subsidiary of multinational Incitec Pivot reloaded cargo from Iran, which is subject to stringent US sanctions

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/a...re_iOSApp_Other



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 5 2019, 10:58 PM
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Posts: 6,791
Thanks: 2305


Fertiliser company convicted over bayside toxic sludge debacle
A fertiliser company has been convicted and fined $120,000 for allowing toxic sludge to flow into Geelong's Corio Bay and contaminate tonnes of seabed and soil.
QUOTE
Incitec Pivot Limited pleaded guilty in the Geelong Magistrates Court on Monday to four counts of breaching the Environment Protection Act after two incidents in 2017 that saw toxic and highly corrosive sludge bubble through old pipes.

The court heard the City of Greater Geelong was forced to remove 9.6 tonnes of soil after the sludge was found in the carpark of the North Shore Fishing Platform on May 24, 2017.

It was initially thought the sludge had been illegally dumped, until Incitec discovered through another incident less than a month later that it was bubbling through a former seawater cooling system it thought had been decommissioned.

Incitec, based in Geelong, was also required to remove soil and seabed from the affected areas following the Environment Protection Authority investigation.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria...805-p52e3d.html
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
mcart117
post Posted: Jan 13 2014, 02:59 PM
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Posts: 424
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Some positive movement recently:



I've put lots of lines in to reflect my own confusion. Totally confused ATM. Lost momentum/confidence. Recently wiped out 9 months winnings on an oil company in 9 days. Have held IP for 5 years, but inclined to sell because I've come to believe greed is less good than cash. sad.gif

 
wolverine
post Posted: Dec 19 2013, 04:29 PM
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from MStanley


Incitec Pivot: Quick Comment: Phosphate Hill gas contract inked at ~$11/GJ
Phosphate Hill Gas contract agreement signed: IPL announced they have executed a twenty-three month gas supply agreement for the Phosphate Hill DAP/MAP plant effective from February 1, 2015. The agreement will result in an A$50m step-up in manufacturing costs. Given IPL uses 10.5 PJ per annum of gas at Phosphate Hill and the prior delivered gas cost was ~$6/GJ, this implies a new delivered gas cost of ~A$11/GJ (vs MSe A$8/GJ). Plant economics challenged: On current spot DAP (US$371/t) and AUD/USD (0.88), IPL’s Phosphate Hill operations would be loss making when the new gas agreement commences. Even assuming a rebound in the DAP price in FY16 (MSe US$410/t) and continued devaluation of the AUD (MSe 0.80), our Phosphate Hill plant model calculates a 7% cash margin or production EBIT of A$39m (vs 24% and A$134m in FY12). Banking on relief from the east coast gas shortage. The decision to sign a twenty three month agreement was driven by the fact that IPL expect east coast gas supply constraints to ease post 2016, which should allow them to contract at lower prices. Movement of pricing post 2016 will also impact IPL’s Gibson Island gas contract rollover in September 2017 (although IPL expect due to banked gas, they will not require a new contract until 2019). On our estimates, Gibson Island would be loss making in 2017 at $11/GJ gas. Overhang resolved: Whilst the increase in gas cost was clearly higher than we had expected, resolution of the Phosphate Hill contract was the first of four execution issues we wanted to see resolved in FY14. From here we will be looking for (1) successful ramp up of Moranbah to 300ktpa, (2) both Phosphate Hill shuts occurring to plan, and (3) no other unplanned outages.



--------------------
TOO MANY CHIEFS

NOT ENOUGH INDIANS

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
mercury
post Posted: Dec 19 2013, 11:02 AM
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In Reply To: arty's post @ Dec 19 2013, 10:49 AM

12000 = 12 Kwh per day? Pretty good.

merc




 

sentifi.com

Share Cafe Sentifi Top themes and market attention on:


arty
post Posted: Dec 19 2013, 10:49 AM
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In Reply To: mercury's post @ Dec 19 2013, 10:20 AM

We have an electric oven, with a gas barbecue for backup.
Producing our own electricity with 2KW Solar Panels and hot water from a 300 Ltr Solar HWS.
I have recorded solar production figures at roughly weekly intervals. See chart below with 10-period Moving Average added.

Attached Image



(Apologies for being off-topic.)



--------------------
I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)
 
mercury
post Posted: Dec 19 2013, 10:20 AM
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In Reply To: arty's post @ Dec 19 2013, 09:54 AM

we have gas stove, electric oven.
Solar on the roof provides all electricity with a bonus credit every quarter. At 6:15 this morning I checked the Kwh. 250 watts produced at that time. (3Kw system but never 100% efficient ...usually about 75% in winter. up to 93 % in summer)

Summer is so much more productive than winter.

Merc




 
arty
post Posted: Dec 19 2013, 09:54 AM
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In Reply To: wolverine's post @ Dec 19 2013, 09:42 AM

... but pity the householders that were lured into installing "economical" gas heating, cooking, ...
Sure, electricity prices are continuing to rise, but the times of "cheap gas" are over.
"Suckers!" comes to mind. Should've gone Solar instead.



--------------------
I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)
 
wolverine
post Posted: Dec 19 2013, 09:54 AM
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Posts: 10,059
Thanks: 878


In Reply To: wolverine's post @ Dec 19 2013, 09:42 AM

Rumour has it that the price is around $10/Gj



--------------------
TOO MANY CHIEFS

NOT ENOUGH INDIANS

Said 'Thanks' for this post: arty  
 
 


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