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CUV, CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED
investek
post Posted: Oct 13 2019, 11:00 PM
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I find this quite exciting! A major step forward in the OTC/new formulations IMHO.
Personally I think Wolgen has been waiting for this grant to take place before disclosing more info (hence the stalled progress).
Note: on the telecon, he specifically mentioned the IP and need to protect future formulations.

https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/docs2/w...European_patent

Vallaurix has been granted European patent #3288967, well technically the grant will be in effect from the date of publication on 6th Nov 2019!

PHARMACEUTICAL COMPOUND
Abstract: The present invention relates to an alpha-MSH analogue compound, the use in skin diseases, and the preparation.
https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/deta...ATCOLLDOCUMENTS

Text intended for grant
https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/docs2/w...nt_(clean_copy)
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Kboy69
post Posted: Oct 13 2019, 10:35 PM
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If I had the shares some of you have, I would have sold out and retired but I probably need to try to maximize
my holdings. If nothing happens, I have a 5 year retirement plan. I feel like by that time the stock price will be far
ahead of where it is now and be nearing its maximum potential. I don't plan on selling a single share until then.


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NewToCli
post Posted: Oct 13 2019, 08:54 PM
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In Reply To: macgyver's post @ Oct 13 2019, 08:43 PM

Exactly smile.gif and if all your wealth is invested in this one stock you get a bit crazy and mentally attached by time... also I’m happy to sleep again through the night and not wake up by a panic attack at 4am German time to check what is happening at ASX :-D

Surely, everyone who olds on another couple of years will be rewarded...


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macgyver
post Posted: Oct 13 2019, 08:43 PM
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In Reply To: NewToCli's post @ Oct 13 2019, 08:17 PM

Thats the trick my friend, to be mentally free of this stock. Looking forward to the day I sell out, there are other things to life than sweating about the sp. But I'm growing impatient, and dreaming makes it worse!


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NewToCli
post Posted: Oct 13 2019, 08:17 PM
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Hey guys I read a lot of fantasy here now, lots of hyper excitement to what is possible now in this stock...

Just stay realistic... roll out takes >12 months Cuv said, no idea if centers are prepared, doctors trained, when registry is set up... vitiligo at least one year to just get the procotcls done with fda. VP is a Concept still even though promised results in H1/2019... etc etc

Nothing concrete for the topical...

Long way for the management team to deliver on the profits that are now already priced in.

I’m happy to have cashed in my early retirement money and happy to keep 3k shares remaining to see how much they will be I 30 years... but I am mentally free from this stock and management team now.. what a release.

That’s how I see it... life time doesn’t stop and wait


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FarmaZutical
post Posted: Oct 13 2019, 02:50 PM
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In Reply To: macgyver's post @ Oct 13 2019, 09:56 AM

I think you numbers are reasonable, but to reach 1500+ patients in the US, many will have to be diagnosed first.
There are app. 500 known EPP patients in the US today as far as I understand and I expect a swift uptake in most of
this population. Awareness will rise and more patients will probably be diagnosed over the coming years but I don’t think
we can expect 1000 patients right off the bat. However, I think 6 implants are likely in the US.

UK has app. 350 known EPP patients and if NICE surrenders I’m expecting around half of them to be
eligible for Scenesse during a managed access agreement unless the new PASS data gives us a better
QALY measure and full access. I think 3-4 implants will be maximum in rainy Britain.

My expectation is that we will reach 1000 patients treated in Europe soon.
NICE will have to accept the new efficacy data, and the Scandinavian countries
will follow. Denmark, Norway, Sweeden have app. EPP 100-150 eligible patients in total.
Germany will continue to grow and probably reach 500 patients treated soon.
Currently, only 4 patients are treated in Austria but the Ombudsman has requested
broader access so maybe we can get to 30-40 patients there, too. Switzerland and
Italy will also expand and The Netherlands are probably already maxed out. France is evaluating Scenesse for reimbursement as we speak. Spain could also
deliver 100+ patients. This is my short term base scenario for Europe. 1000+ patients at an average of
3 implants which results in US$45 m. revenues.

Add the 3-400 patients who I think we will be treating in the US within a year and we
have minimum 1300 patients of whom 300 will be getting up to 6 implants. Let’s assume the US patients will
be granted reimbursement for 5 implants in average and that’s US$ 22 m. per year short term.

So my most conservative estimate is US$ 67 m. in revenues short term which would result in
US$ 25 pps with a 25 multiple which I find reasonable.

After FDA approval Clinuvel is de-risked and the rest of the pipeline should also begin to
get some option value. Today, I don’t think Vitiligo, lotions, Enfance, XP or any
other aspect of Clinuvel than EPP in the EU or US is being given any value at all.

Australia and Japan as imminent targets for EPP should at least be given a risk weighed
value of something. Especially Japan is huge. When we are fully up and running in
Australia and Japan my EPP numbers double !

And if we move into one or two phase 3 trials for Vitiligo, the market will have to
begin seeing some value here, too. Vitiligo could be an enormous for the company and
even with 20 % risk weighted value being ascribed to Vitiligo today that ought to
add US$ 200 m. to our market cap. Imagine if we were a pre approval company with ONLY
Vitiligo but good results in Phase 2 and now moving into Phase 3. Such a company
could easily be trading at a market cap of 200 m. We have FDA approval for the drug
now so Vitiligo expectations has to begin adding some value, soon. And then there is the
rest of the pipeline.

My best estimate of fair value today is US$ 35 pps. which corresponds with
Sphene and Moelis’ 12 month targets of AU$ 50-58.

If all stars align and we get a move on, I think US$ 100 pps. is
possible within 2-3 years. When I dream, I see the company being acquired
at that stage at a 100 % premium which would give me an easy exit at US$ 200.

 

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Crembo
post Posted: Oct 13 2019, 02:09 PM
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Can anyone remember from the call as to whether US sales are expected to show in the Q4 sales figures early next year?

 
bretto32
post Posted: Oct 13 2019, 01:48 PM
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What price before they consider a share split? Does anyone think they will consider a split?

 
Klomp
post Posted: Oct 13 2019, 01:14 PM
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In Reply To: TheG1000's post @ Oct 13 2019, 12:48 PM

they can't really do this in Australia. Minority shareholders are afforded pretty decent rights through independent Directors and exclusive minority shareholder voting for transactions / events that disproportionately benefit the majority shareholder.
I'm not worried about being squeezed out.
Main benefit for a bidder is put their foot on the company now and over time hope they can entice minority shareholders to sell into revised offers.


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TheG1000
post Posted: Oct 13 2019, 12:48 PM
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In Reply To: Verharven's post @ Oct 13 2019, 12:22 PM

If they achieve control of the board and enough shares, they can issue new equity to dilute the blocking stake, the size and speed of which would be determined by how much they could acquire, and what stock options they could grant the new board.
They could then compulsorily acquire.

 
 


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