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Brierley
Posted on: Jun 3 2018, 06:40 PM


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Posts: 2,669

China Says All Trade Progress Is Off If U.S. Imposes Tariffs Bloomberg News June 3, 2018, 11:27 AM GMT+7https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...es-trade-allies
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Dec 9 2017, 04:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Received the following from OpenMarkets on 22-11-17

Wondering if it might provide dynamic stock prices ?

QUOTE
OpenMarkets mobile app

We're excited to announce that we will be shortly releasing the OpenMarkets mobile app! The OpenMarkets app has been built for iOS and Android phones so you can access your account and trade on-the-go. We will notify you about our app's release in the coming month.


Built for IOS and Android phones. Release in December
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Oct 24 2017, 07:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Primed to run again imo.
Cashed up for several firm exploration and development wells.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Apr 7 2017, 12:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

good for his poll numbers ?
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Brierley
Posted on: Apr 3 2017, 08:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Yeah Triage, but that's all fake news biggrin.gif

QUOTE
And he has the proof. "Where is Dan? Where is Dan Scavino please?" he bellows across the Oval Office. Within seconds, Mr Scavino, a former golf caddie who ran Mr Trump's social media during the 2016 campaign and now does the same in the White House, walks over with a laptop to report that the president's combined following is 101 million.

"I have over 100m followers between Facebook, Twitter [and] Instagram," Mr Trump says proudly. "Over 100m. I don't have to go to the fake media."


http://www.afr.com/news/politics/world/us-...20170402-gvc4hx
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Brierley
Posted on: Mar 30 2017, 11:32 AM


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Posts: 2,669

Yep, further tighten the rules/surcharges for foreign buyers.

Interesting statistics in this article

http://www.afr.com/real-estate/residential...20170323-gv5dt0

QUOTE
...Chinese buyers are purchasing the equivalent of 25 per cent of all new homes in NSW and 16 per cent in Victoria, because they are 'cheap' compared with China.....
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Mar 29 2017, 09:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

here you go eb

  • Mar 29 2017 at 1:05 PM
<h1 itemprop="headline name">Sizzling hot deals: Brisbane apartments offered at 39pc discount in 'fire sale'</h1>
http://www.afr.com/real-estate/residential...20170328-gv8q9k
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Mar 25 2017, 04:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Worth a listen, starts at 12:30min into podcast here

QUOTE
Erik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Christian back to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss the outlook on the US dollar, Jeff’s secular bullish call on gold and silver and the current demand for physical gold. Jeff further discusses the fundamentals for the platinum, palladium and lithium markets. Further, they wrap things up with Jeff’s macro outlook on the economy, the European Union and outlook for China and Russia.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Mar 25 2017, 11:54 AM


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Posts: 2,669

Vote coming up to raise the debt ceiling too.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Mar 17 2017, 03:05 PM


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Posts: 2,669

Yep, went through the same process with firefox/iress
However, unlike your experience, Commsec Iress is working ok for me using explorer/windows 10
So it will work, but don't ask me how.
There is a troubleshooting guide here

Also using my new Openmarkets account now so bye bye commsec once my free Iress with them expires.....
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Mar 15 2017, 02:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
(start of) an address by Leak, 2 days before his passing.


good passing shot
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Brierley
Posted on: Mar 10 2017, 01:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
Did you know that you get only one daily Contract Note with one Brokerage, regardless how many small bites you take when buying or selling a stock?


Just started trading with them and the aggregation for multiple trades same stock/same day didn't happen.
Seems its not automatic. One has to request it in writing, but I don't know what their criteria is for granting the request.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Feb 27 2017, 12:06 PM


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Posts: 2,669

His best call was years ago after the dotcom bubble burst. The Nasdaq had dropped from around 5000 to 2500 at the time, and he predicted it would fall to 1100. It did, but everyone laughed at the call at the time.
On average, hes right about once every 10 years.....
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Feb 25 2017, 07:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Podcast interview with Louis-Vincent Gave

https://www.macrovoices.com/241-louis-vince...2017-strategies
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Feb 15 2017, 10:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

or the NWE (King Baz) phenomenon....
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Brierley
Posted on: Feb 14 2017, 09:11 PM


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Posts: 2,669

I wish there was a way I could get the last 25 posts that excluded CUV posts
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Brierley
Posted on: Feb 2 2017, 02:13 PM


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Posts: 2,669

Thanks for the info Arty

QUOTE
And for over a year I've already been able to place "Best" orders that will go outside the ASX and get me a better price - usually half-way between the usual ASX levels.


Are those centerpoint trades you're referring to ?

QUOTE
It's true that Chi-X is currently not displayed, but I've been told that will come with the next version of Pulse


Chi-X included would be ideal. There's also a mobile app they've been talking about for a while......

Do you find the broker reports useful at all ?
I'm guessing they could be useful to see whose buying/selling specs, although I guess the data isn't available until after T+2 ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Feb 2 2017, 09:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Arty
Are you still using Openmarkets and the Pulse platform ?

I trialled it in 2015, but was overseas at the time so couldn't open an account.

Thinking of giving it another go now. One attraction is 0.07% brokerage compared to the 0.12% I'm paying now.

I cant find any online reviews on Openmarkets/Pulse, or Pulse vs Iress etc. I do note that Pulse doesnt show ChiX trades whereas Iress does.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Dec 30 2016, 05:19 PM


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Posts: 2,669

Interesting podcast here about the imminent surge in US entitlement costs.

Its subscriber only, but one point was comparing Trumps proposed tax cuts and fiscal stimulus to the Reagan era.

Apparently, when Reagan came to power, US debt to GDP was 30%, and the bulk of baby boomers were in the prime of their working lives.
Trump inherits 105% debt to GDP and the baby boomers hitting retirement age.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Dec 29 2016, 11:36 AM


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Posts: 2,669

Accumulating a few of these on-market below the recent Insto placement at $4.06

Seeing as the CEO clearly stated one week before the placement that STO would not need a CR, and the multi billion$ CR last year, I'm thinking they're done for now.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Dec 29 2016, 11:28 AM


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Posts: 2,669

Its a fair distance away
I think the main relevance to HZN re the Murak result, is the more dusters the PNGLNG jv drill, the better chance they will want HZN's stranded gas for any additional trains.
So far Murak looks ok, but waiting on final results.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Dec 22 2016, 01:45 PM


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Posts: 2,669

HZN sp finally looking a bit healthier.
Some positive comments coming out of the PNG Mining and Petroleum Conference earlier this month.
Sounds like the PNG gov could be the catalyst for a deal to tap the stranded gas resources.
Not holding my breath for when though.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jul 26 2016, 02:26 PM


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Posts: 2,669

I think it hinges on the proposed pipeline, P'nyang to PNG LNG project.

Until the pipeline construction gets the greenlight, HZN's 1tcf gas resource at PRL21 is a stranded asset at current oil prices.

In some ways, that's the punt on HZN, will the pipepine go ahead or not, and if so, when ?
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jun 29 2016, 03:09 PM


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Posts: 2,669

I recall last Year Ol Gazza called POO going to sub USD20/brl which seemed a bit out there at the time. It did get to USD26 though.

He hasn't changed his tune, as explained in this Bloomberg article dated 28-06-16. Makes some fair points imo.

OIL STILL HEADING TO $10 A BARREL
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Jun 3 2016, 03:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

[quote]Updated Jun 3 2016 at 12:02 PM After a roller-coaster start to the year, most investors are hoping for a few months of respite over the northern hemisphere summer. But analysts warn there are three short-term risk factors that could spark a renewed bout of nervousness in global markets.

The most immediate risk is that UK voters decide in favour of "Brexit" – the shorthand way of referring to a British exit from the European Union – at the June 23 referendum.

This week the British pound tumbled against the US dollar after two Guardian/ICM polls showed that the "leave" vote had catapulted to a 52-48 lead. At the same time, the cost of insurance against swings in the value of the pound against the US dollar has climbed to the highest level since just after the financial crisis.

So far sterling has been the main casualty of the Brexit debate because most economists predict that the currency will drop sharply if UK voters opt to leave the EU.

But the ramifications of a Brexit vote will be felt well beyond foreign currency markets. This week the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development warned that a Brexit would undermine confidence and raise uncertainty, and lead to the country's GDP being 3 per cent lower by 2020.

The Paris-based organisation also warned that a vote in favour of Brexit "would result in considerable additional volatility in financial markets and an extended period of uncertainty".


Higher spreads
This, it said, would likely result in higher spreads for UK corporate bonds as well as a possible decline in asset prices, and it could also prompt UK households and businesses to postpone their spending decisions.

But, it warns, Brexit shockwaves "would be transmitted to other countries, mainly in Europe".

Further the OECD added that it was even possible that a "leave" vote could roil global markets.

"As the euro crisis and the global financial crisis have shown, adverse financial shocks in one country can quickly spread to others."

The second major risk to markets is China's latest efforts to devalue its currency in a bid to provide some relief to its embattled manufacturers, which are struggling with widespread overcapacity.

Attention has shifted back to the Chinese currency after China's central bank this week set the daily yuan-fixing at its weakest level against the US dollar in more than five years.


Shock devaluation
In total, the yuan fell by 1.6 per cent against the US dollar in May, the largest monthly drop in the Chinese currency since Beijing sent tremors through financial markets with a shock devaluation of the tightly controlled currency last August. Back then, the yuan declined by 2 per cent against the US dollar.

The People's Bank of China appears to be taking advantage of the rising US dollar to guide its currency lower. (The greenback has been strengthening on expectations that the US central bank will raise interest rates in coming months.)

What's more, the Chinese central bank has carefully prepared the groundwork for the yuan to move lower.

Last December, it moved to loosen the yuan's peg to the US dollar, saying that the exchange rate would be set against a basket of currencies, including the euro and the Japanese yen.

However, Washington, along with other major trading partners of China, is concerned that the lower yuan not only gives an unfair advantage to Chinese exports in global markets, but adds to the deflationary pressures in the global economy.

Meanwhile, investors are holding their breath as the Chinese central bank attempts the extremely delicate operation of guiding its currency lower.


Vicious sell-off
They worry that unless the PBoC is adroit in doing so, global markets could witness a replay of the situation earlier this year when fears about a sharp devaluation of the yuan undermined investor confidence and sparked a vicious sell-off.

The final risk for global markets is the uncomfortable squeeze on US corporate profits as a result of rising US labour costs, combined with sluggish productivity gains.

According to revised US GDP figures released last month, US profits rose at a meagre 1.9 per cent annual rate in the first quarter, after falling 8.1 per cent in the final three months of 2015. Some analysts believe that the US is in the midst of what they call a "profits recession".

This squeeze on profits is taking a toll on US economic activity because companies are cutting back on capital spending.

Orders for durable capital goods – excluding aircraft – fell for the third straight month in April.

In addition, analysts warn that the pressure on corporate earnings could be particularly dangerous, because US companies have taken advantage of record-low interest rates to leverage up heavily.

Over the past five years, total debt jumped by $US2.8 ($A3.9) trillion to a record $US6.6 trillion. Any rise in US interest rates will increase the debt-servicing burden of US companies.

Analysts point out that history shows that tightening US monetary policy during a profits recession is a fraught operation.

Since 1971, the Fed has raised interest rates three times during a profits recession – in 1976, 1983 and 1986. On two out of three occasions, share prices have fallen over the following year.


Read more: http://www.afr.com/personal-finance/shares...c#ixzz4AUQ3vukR
Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook
[quote]
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Poll: The Banks
Brierley
Posted on: May 31 2016, 02:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Not totally resolute in my faithlessness
Seems nothing will kill this market atm......
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Poll: The Banks
Brierley
Posted on: May 30 2016, 01:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
by Satyajit Das If Australia is an economic miracle, with more than 25 years uninterrupted growth, then its banks are its most visible sign of strength.

After a near-death experience in the 1990s, they've reformed and bounced back dramatically: Returns on equity now average around 15 per cent, compared to single digits in the US Share prices and dividends have risen strongly over the past decade. At around twice book value, market valuations are well above global levels.

In fact, though, this ruddy good health masks some deeply worrying trends. The balance sheets of the biggest banks - Commonwealth Bank of Australia, National Australia Bank, ANZ and Westpac - are far more vulnerable than they may seem on the surface -- and that means Australia is, too.

To most observers, this might sound alarmist. Scared straight after a mountain of bad loans nearly brought them down at the beginning of the 1990s, the banks reformed and minimised their international exposure, which meant they were insulated from the worst effects of the Asian financial crisis and the 2009 crash.

Today they face little competition in their home market and have benefited tremendously from Australia's strong growth, underpinned by China's seemingly insatiable demand for the country's gas, coal, iron ore and other raw materials. During the 2012 European debt crisis, Australia's banks were worth more than all of Europe's.


Losses likely to rise
But Australian financial institutions have made the same fundamental mistake the rest of the country has, assuming that growth based on "houses and holes" -- rising property prices and resources buried underground -- can continue indefinitely.

In fact, despite a recent rebound in Chinese demand, commodities prices look set to remain weak for the foreseeable future. Banks' exposure to the slowing natural resources sector has reached nearly $70 billion in loans outstanding -- worryingly large relative to their capital resources.

If anything, their exposure to the property sector is even more dangerous. Mortgages make up a much bigger proportion of bank portfolios than before -- more than half, double the level in the 1990s. And they're riskier than they used to be: Many loans are interest-only, while around 80 per cent have variable rates.

With a downturn likely -- everything from price-to-income to price-to-rent ratios suggests houses are massively overvalued -- losses are likely to rise, especially if economy activity weakens.

Australian banks are also more vulnerable to outside shocks than they may first appear.

Their loan-to-deposit ratio is about 110 per cent. Domestic deposits fund only around 60 per cent of bank assets; the rest of their financing has to come from overseas. While that hasn't been a problem recently, Australia's external position is deteriorating.

The current account deficit is expected to climb to 4.75 per cent in the year ending June 30. Weak terms of trade, a rising budget deficit, slower growth and a falling currency are likely to drive up the cost of funds. If Australia's economy or the financial sector's performance falters, or international markets are disrupted, banks' access to external funds could be threatened.


Addicted to cheap credit
Risks to the financial sector should be getting far more attention than they are in Australia's ongoing -- and terrifically anodyne -- parliamentary election campaign. Banks have grown immensely since the 1990s and now make up a much bigger part of the Australian economy. The top four are among the country's largest listed companies, accounting for more than a third of total market capitalisation. Their combined assets account for about 130 per cent of GDP.

Any pain they feel could thus spread quickly throughout the real economy. Falling bank stocks could well drive down share prices more broadly. Shrinking dividends -- which have traditionally been quite high, around three-quarters of earnings -- would hammer investors, especially self-funded retirees, and threaten consumption.

An economy addicted to a ready supply of cheap credit would struggle to keep growing.

Meanwhile, the government's options are limited. Cutting interest rates further to spur economic activity would risk worsening the housing bubble and adding to sky-high levels of household debt, already around 130 per cent of nominal GDP and nearly 200 per cent of household disposable income.


Time to diversify
If interest rates were to rise, that on the other hand, could trigger defaults, especially on riskier loans such as those to property developers. Fiscal policy is similarly constrained: Increasing debt beyond certain levels would threaten Australia's credit rating and thus banks' access to offshore funding.

Pundits have been saying for years that Australia needs to diversify its economy, boosting services exports -- primarily tourism, education and health -- rather than continuing to depend on resources and debt-fueled property growth.

Banks need to do the same, reducing their exposure to the housing market and the mining industry. At the same time, they should move swiftly to shore up their balance sheets, aggressively increasing bad-debt reserves, raising capital and gradually trimming dividends. Even their otherwise enviable luck can't last forever.

Bloomberg


Read more: http://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-fi...g#ixzz4A6ZCVb2m
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  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: May 4 2016, 11:57 AM


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Posts: 2,669

For those not in Australia, it can be viewed online here

I doubt either side of domestic politics would want to be seen doing anything to significantly dampen property prices.

I'm thinking influences outside of Australia's control like US led interest rate rises and/or a hard landing in China are more likely catalysts to burst the property bubble here.

Interesting times at the moment.
RBA cuts on Tuesday, then on same day two US Fed governors jawbone for a US interest rate rise in June.
As I type, Trump just beat Cruz for Republican nominee...........
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Apr 20 2016, 12:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
  • Apr 19 2016 at 9:00 PM
  • Updated Apr 19 2016 at 9:55 PM
Reserve Bank's Glenn Stevens shoots down 'helicopter money' desperados

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens has slammed calls for central banks to directly pump cash into the pockets of households and governments to resurrect moribund global economic growth, warning that such "helicopter money" drops would be almost impossible to stop once they start."Are we that desperate," Mr Stevens said in a speech in New York on Tuesday, in which he also challenged a growing view that the world is suffering from an obsessive desire to save over investment, a growth-retarding trend dubbed the great "secular stagnation" by figures such as Barack Obama's former top economic advisor Lawrence Summers.

Mr Stevens said that while it was true that the use of traditional monetary policy stimulus – mainly interest rate reductions – was increasingly unable to solve deep-seated problems across economies, he expressed incredulity that central banks would soon finance governments and households directly.

A large part of the governor's alarm is because the concept of "helicopter money" is highly controversial and contested among central banking experts, with opponents – particularly within Germany's Bundesbank –warning it would amount to the "bankruptcy" of monetary policy and destroy central bank balance sheets.

While not inconceivable in Australia – where the Reserve Bank could theoretically "purchase" government bonds to effectively monetise government debt – in many other countries such manoeuvres are outright illegal.

"It would be a very large step to overturn those taboos, which exist for good reason," Mr Stevens said. "The main complication is surely that it would be a lot easier to start doing helicopter money than to stop, if history is any guide."

Mr Stevens insisted that even before the world reaches the point of contemplating such desperate measures, many governments would still have the option of borrowing from financial markets to fund infrastructure projects with "returns comfortably above their cost of funding".

"Helicopter money is surely not needed in these cases," he said.

Yet despite such warnings a number of high profile investors and central bank figures – including former Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke and the Financial Times' chief commentator Martin Wolf – have openly canvassed the use of such money drops, particularly as financial markets were roiled during the opening months of 2016.

There has also been considerable speculation that the use of helicopter money may be the next phase of Japan's stalled "Abenomics" effort to shake off more than two decades of entrenched deflation.


'Diminishing returns are setting in'
"The very fact – extraordinary as it is – that such possibilities are being openly discussed by serious commentators reinforces the point that, while people find global growth outcomes still a bit disappointing, we are reaching the limits of monetary policy in boosting it," Mr Stevens said.

Mr Stevens said he suspected that more and more people had come to the realisation that in the use of traditional monetary policy, "diminishing returns are setting in".

"Maybe this has something to do with market confidence being easily rattled," he said, adding that there was a hint in the market volatility of January and first half of February that "central banks didn't have much left they could do, if things got worse.

Mr Stevens warned that in the absence of new drivers of demand, the world may need to collectively face up to the possibility that global trend growth may have been permanently lowered since the 2008 crisis.

If true, that would mean savers, pension funds and even governments need to dramatically rethink expectations about rising future incomes, he said.

"It may be that this reconfiguration is, in fact, what is happening. That would explain why ultra-low interest rates are not, apparently, as successful in boosting growth in demand as might have been expected," he said.

"The future income against which people would borrow looks lower than it did, not to mention that the current income against which some already had borrowed has turned out to be lower than assumed."

All of which, according to Mr Stevens, intensifies the need for governments to redouble their efforts at blowing away barriers to growth, which he listed as including teetering banks without enough capital; households and companies burdened by too much debt, and; protectionist government policies that impeded productivity or slowed the transitions from old industries to new.

Even though financial market volatility will re-emerge, Mr Stevens said the damage caused by such "mood swings" could be limited by a strong focus on improving growth fundamentals.

"It is surely time that policies beyond central bank actions did more in this regard. Our inability, so far, durably to lift growth prospects is arguably the biggest vulnerability the global financial system faces today. This needs to be our focus."

Adding his voice to one of the biggest debates in global economics at present, Mr Stevens described as "too pessimistic" the notion that the world is suffering from "secular stagnation," in which the urge to save is so strong across economies that unemployment rises.

"I struggle to accept that today, to an extent virtually unprecedented in modern history, ingenuity, technological development, entrepreneurial drive and opportunity for improvement are so weak – so unprecedentedly weak – and people's desire to defer gratification so strong, that the equilibrium real rate of interest is actually going to be negative over an extended period."


Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/economy/reserve-ba...9#ixzz46HfqdFeR
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  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Apr 19 2016, 02:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Recent podcast interview with Jim Rickards

Erik Townsend welcomes Jim Rickards to MacroVoices. Erik and Jim discuss:
  • Gold as a currency, rather than an investment, because "earning yield requires taking risk"
  • The USD rally and the Fed’s influence on its ability to continue
  • The difference between a central bank’s ability to cure inflation, vs. curing deflation
  • The possibilities of confiscation, taxation, and NIRP and their effects on the relative attractiveness of Gold
  • The Fed first tightening into weakness, and now turning more dovish after a market correction in early 2016
  • The reasons why governments can’t tolerate inflation
  • Gold as a potential hedge against deflation, as well as inflation
  • How QE actually functions, and why we’ve seen so little effect on the real economy
  • What the next form of stimulus may look like, and how it may affect the outlook on Gold
  • The necessity for structural solutions, not monetary solutions, to structural problems
  • What an increase in institutional holdings of Gold would mean for price, and plenty more...
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Apr 14 2016, 03:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

[quote]The recovery in oil prices may soon hit a wall amid a lack of 'game changing' drivers that would push the commodity higher until at least next year and rising doubts about an output freeze deal, Capital Economics says.

Brent crude hit a four-month high of $US44.84 on Wednesday, ahead of a crucial meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers this weekend in Qatar.

But overnight the commodity's price retreated 1.1 per cent to $US44.18 a barrel, following a report from Bloomberg that questions had emerged on whether Iran's oil minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh would attend the meeting. It followed a report by Reuters that Russian oil minister Alexander Novak said while a deal on an output freeze was expected to be signed, its commitments would be vague.

The recent recovery in oil has been one of the factors lifting global equities over the past two months. The MSCI All-Country World Index has risen 12 per cent from its February 11 low when it entered a bear market, defined by a fall of 20 per cent from its most recent high. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was also caught in bear territory in early February, but has since recovered 6 per cent.

Oil prices are now close to Capital Economic's year-end target of $US45 a barrel, but the London-based think tank is not revisiting its target just yet.

"A further recovery in oil prices would surely require outright cuts in global supply and increases in demand, which suggests the next big move up will not take place until next year when the market should be much closer to balance," commodities economist Thomas Pugh said in a research note.

As well as the high expectations of a deal in Doha, a fall in US crude oil inventories a fortnight ago and a drop in the US rig count have helped stabilise oil prices. Falling stocks imply that demand for oil is greater than supply. Oversupply had contributed to oil prices tumbling to 12 year lows in January.

"However, there have not been any game-changers in the fundamentals of the oil market itself," Mr Pugh said.

While US production had started to fall, the declines were small, with output falling by 1.7 per cent year-on-year in February, he said.


Conflicting forecasts
There were also conflicting reports about demand, with OPEC overnight cutting its forecast for oil demand growth in 2016, expecting demand to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day, 50,000 less than expected. The US Energy Information Administration meanwhile raised its forecast for demand this week.

More concerning for Mr Pugh was that despite the market's heightened expectations, no deal was guaranteed this weekend.

"Saudi Arabia has said that it will not participate in a production freeze unless Iran agrees to join as well and Iran has steadfastly committed to increasing its output to pre-sanctions levels," Mr Pugh said.

"As it happens, we think some sort of compromise agreement is still likely, even without Iran's full participation. But given that very few of the countries attending the meeting on Sunday have either the capacity or intention to increase output anyway, freezing production at the current very high level should at best put a floor under prices."

Major oil producers also believe oil prices are unlikely to drift back below $US30 a barrel. Russian oil company Rosneft's chief Igor Sechin told a conference in Switzerland that the oil price was growing, and "everyone was expecting the successful outcome of our work".

Macquarie Wealth Management too is sceptical of a positive outcome from Doha. Among their concerns, the analysts note that participation in an accord by Libya and Iran is improbable, meaning a full agreement by other members was unlikely.

"Even if all the above complexities can be surpassed, freezing output at January levels would not meaningfully impact OPEC production, which already achieved much of the anticipated growth through January that was expected for 2016," the analysts said.

"From an incentives perspective, there is not a lot of motivation for OPEC to shift their strategy now just as it is proving to work; non-OPEC production is experiencing significant declines in response to the low price environment."

Bell Potter's director of institutional sales and trading, Richard Coppleson, warned the expectations of a deal were riding dangerously high.

"All I can say is that the whole world has so much riding on the OPEC meeting that they had better do something otherwise it'll be a sea of red in markets next week," he said.


Read more: http://www.afr.com/markets/commodities/oil...2#ixzz45mBOmw3i
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[quote]
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Apr 5 2016, 01:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Ideally, one would draw on the grid to charge their E car at night, and offset that cost by selling power back into grid from their home solar during the day.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Brierley
Posted on: Apr 1 2016, 02:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

T3 pricing in USA pretty competitive.
Bloomberg reporting sub USD30K after gov incentives
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Brierley
Posted on: Mar 29 2016, 02:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

[quote]ANZ has closed the door on some overseas' buyers wanting to invest in Australian real estate.

The bank, which announced its last review for overseas' buyers only four months ago, also announced tougher rules for other borrowers to prevent fraud and money laundering.

They include insisting on original copies of untranslated supporting documents required for a loan application and tightened passport scrutiny, such as foreign applicants having to provide all stamped pages.

It comes amid concerns by developers that a decline in bank lending to investors, capital controls imposed in China and confusion about state planning policies, particularly in Melbourne, might slow investments.

Mortgage brokers claim the moves are targeting the Chinese market, which has spent billions of dollars on Australian residential property, particularly in Melbourne and Sydney.

From today, the bank will not accept loan applications based solely on foreign income.

"Applications based on 100 per cent foreign income will not be accepted," the bank is telling mortgage brokers.

For borrowers seeking loans with a loan-to-value ratio (LVR) – which is a ratio of the loan to the value of the asset purchased – of more than 50 per cent there are measures about the size and source of funding.

For example, there is a maximum LVR of 70 per cent, no loans in a company name, no guarantor arrangements and restricted construction lending.

There are tough controls on refinancing of existing loans, which involves borrowers attempting to get better terms and conditions for their loans.

During the past 12 months there has been a more than three-fold increase in the number of borrowers considering refinancing, according to recent analysis by JP Morgan.

In addition, foreign salary earner applicants must pass six stringent documentation tests that include providing comprehensive employment contracts, tax returns, current visa documentation and original, untranslated supporting documents.

Self-employed applicants will need to provide confirmation the business has been running longer than two years and details of ownership structure.

Those borrowing less than 50 per cent of the property value will also have to provide additional documentation.

Expatriate Australians working overseas will not be impacted by the lending restrictions but will be required to provide the extra documentation.

The bank recently increased the range of products for which temporary, or provisional visa holders, will not be eligible.

Products still available include the fixed and standard variable home and residential investment loans.

The bank has told brokers that discretionary pricing might be available if there is "competitive justification for the request".


Read more: http://www.afr.com/real-estate/foreign-bor...5#ixzz44GI627zG

[quote]
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Mar 14 2016, 01:45 PM


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Couple of TA audio's with charts, US based.

General Market weekend newsletter

Weekend Commodity Newsletter
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Mar 2 2016, 07:43 PM


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T

I hope I'm not treading on any toes by posting a link from the nutters at zerohedge

Art Berman Sees Oil Heading to $16, Will Lead to Banking Bloodbath

Actually, I think they make some valid points in the podcast.

Following points stood out to me.

:Saudis are targeting the financiers of US shalers

:The main catalyst driving prices down will be lack of US storage.

:Lots of shalers are already losing money, but keep pumping to service loan interest, and hope others go bankrupt before them.
So running at a loss in itself is not causing shutins..
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Feb 29 2016, 01:22 PM


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Not holding my breath Triage.

It will be interesting to watch the process, see what assets get bought, and the prices paid.

I note some cashed up companies are looking through the current low POO, taking advantage of low service costs and pushing ahead with exploration/appraisal to set themselves up for any rebound.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Feb 28 2016, 06:53 PM


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Signs of a bottom forming ?

$450 mil Blank Cheque IPO to pickup oil assets on the cheap
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Feb 25 2016, 12:39 PM


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Interesting point in the AFR article was the USD50k/year limit for an individual in China to transfer funds out of the country.
Obviously they've found a way around it, but if that loophole was to close the property hotspots in Australia might suddenly have less prospective buyers.
All part and parcel of the Chinese economy I suppose. Will they need to enforce stricter capital controls and/or significantly devalue their currency.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Feb 24 2016, 04:23 PM


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Jonathan Tepper predicting 20-50% drop in Australian Housing prices

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...r-a-2008-moment
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Oct 5 2015, 03:10 PM


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Carl Icahn-Danger Ahead
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Sep 28 2015, 02:53 PM


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Bit over 2 years now since Kahuna was predicting an extreme level event. Around page 129 I think.
Good informative posts/pdf's.
These things take time.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Sep 1 2015, 12:35 PM


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Thinking about giving Paritech Pulse Trading Platform a try thru Openmarkets.
Arty's is one of the very few reviews I have found so far.

My broker used to provide Pulse years ago, then switched to Webiress. I missed Pulse when the switch was made but got used to Webiress over time.

Now running a trial of Pulse along with my actual Webiress account and memories of using Pulse are slowly coming back.

Both platforms are effectively free for active traders, but Pulse is more expensive if one doesnt do enough trades for the free subscription.
Openmarkets brokerage rates are competitive, and they tell me that multiple trades in one stock on the same day can be aggregated into one brokerage charge which works out cheaper.

I did find one negative review here

Keen to hear from anyone else using Paritech Pulse, especially those that might have switched from Webiress.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Jul 14 2015, 05:20 PM


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Podcast of an interview yesterday with recently resigned Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Jun 30 2015, 03:09 PM


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Latest TA charts with Audio from Breakpoint Trades
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Jun 27 2015, 06:07 PM


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QUOTE
Getting smashed for one reason or another.
Sp recovery after EOFY tax loss selling etc ?


~6% pop in the sp on Friday, on good volume. No company specific news and XJO down ~1.5% for the day.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jun 16 2015, 03:31 PM


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Getting smashed for one reason or another.
Sp recovery after EOFY tax loss selling etc ?
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jun 9 2015, 11:56 AM


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F
Looks like Roc-1 is definitely going ahead, commencing some time in Q4. From a besbs point of view, I'd like to know where in the rig schedule it sits. If its 2nd or 3rd, then that timeline is very rubbery as preceding wells can incur delays etc.

In the success case, I note they wont be flow testing Roc-1 until re entry, which will occur after a 6-12 month suspension.
So we'll be left with an inconclusive result until then, unless its a duster first up.

Given the two stage testing, I would expect a more modest besbs run, compared to if they were going to conduct all the testing in one go.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: May 27 2015, 03:31 PM


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QUOTE
CEO also was assured by both Macquarie and Brookfield that when their recent Apache acquisition is bedded down it will be "business as usual".


I'd be more reassured by Macquaries "business as usual" statement if they werent currently looking to flip their stake, as per the article I previously posted.

The CEO newsletter states he will issue an update on Phoenix/Roc-1 after the ApacheNW deal settles.
However, if in the meantime, Macquarie enter another deal to flip their stake, that could put things fwd a bit wrt any update from CVN.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: May 19 2015, 11:43 AM


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I think Roc-1 could be a decent besbs play later this year.
CVN are well cashed up so I'm not expecting an opportunistic prespud CR, which tend to kill besbs runs.
Will be keeping an eye on the scheduling and progress of the Noble Tom Prosser in 2H '15.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: May 18 2015, 02:41 PM


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Has the ink dried yet on the Macquarie/Brookfield purchase of ApacheNW assets ?

I see Mac is already looking to flip it
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Apr 27 2015, 04:00 PM


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The Secrets to Emotion Free Trading

Read this years ago. Made sense to me.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Mar 27 2015, 03:52 PM


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I dont support nit-picking on Cuvscene.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Brierley
Posted on: Mar 17 2015, 02:17 PM


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No crash in sight.
We haven't even got to whole numbers on negative interest rates yet.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Mar 2 2015, 02:13 PM


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Looks like OEL are now fully carried for the drilling of Hawkeye-1 with a rig available for drilling in early Q3 2015

QUOTE
This farm-in, along with the US$24.5m funding committed by BHP Billiton and the expression of interest received in January 2015 from PNOC-EC for a further 15% working interest, ensures that Otto is fully funded and has mitigated significant financial risk associated with the drilling of Hawkeye-1......
......Otto Energy Investments Ltd (a 100% subsidiary of Otto and Operator of SC55) (OEIL) has entered into a Letter of Intent with Maersk Drilling to secure the Maersk Venturer ultra-deepwater drillship to drill the Hawkeye-1 exploration well.......
......All required long lead items have now been procured and stored in yards in Labuan, Malaysia. Drilling of Hawkeye-1 is expected to commence in Q3 2015


http://www.ottoenergy.com/IRM/Company/Show...rofIntentSigned
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jan 15 2015, 11:51 AM


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This

QUOTE
In a competitive market, prices should equal marginal costs. Simply put, the price will reflect the costs that an efficient supplier must recoup in producing the last barrel of oil required to meet global demand. In a monopoly-price regime, by contrast, the monopolist can choose a price well above marginal costs and then restrict production to ensure that supply does not exceed demand (which it otherwise would because of the artificially high price).


A competitive market, wouldn't that be great.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Jan 14 2015, 01:22 PM


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Yeah, its reasonably priced atm.

The post Galoc sale cash balance adjustment of 10cps is nice, but with no more revenue that cash will gradually be run down in admin/exploration costs that may or may not produce anything.

Near term we might get a 1-2c pop on completion of the Hawkeye farmout. ie if OEL are free carried for ~50% interest in a USD50mil well, that's a transaction value to OEL of USD$25mil, or realisation of the BHP USD24.5m drilling funds is another way of looking at it.

Otherwise, we wait for Tanzania drilling Q3 15 for some punter interest to return.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jan 14 2015, 12:46 PM


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Merc

The pro forma cash balance @ 30-06-2014 is USD115.735,000
Refer here

I took that figure and subtracted the actual Sept/Dec admin/expltn costs and the estimated Mar qtr admin/expltn costs.

Then apply an FX rate of 0.82 and divide by shares on issue.

The Galoc production revenue goes to NDO from 01-07-14
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jan 13 2015, 10:44 AM


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Still holding. One of the best performing oilers (sp) in the last 6 months, ie, it didn't go down 20-50%.

Shareholder vote Jan 20 to approve NDO's USD108m bid for Galoc. Quite notable that they're paying USD32/brl for 2P reserves in the ground while Goldmans etc are calling USD40/brl for WTI crude.
Post Galoc sale adjustments, I reckon OEL will finish the quarter with ~10cps cash.

Still a chance for another bid, possibly at the company level, but not holding my breath.

Looks like SC55 will get drilled. PNOC took a 15% stake. One or two more partners for another 15-25% should do it.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Dec 12 2014, 01:33 PM


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QUOTE
With Risco paying OEL the equivalent of 10cps for Galoc, there's now minimal downside to take a punt on the SC55 farmout outcome which should be known soon.


BCP through their 80% owned NDO have today outbid Kuwait Petroleum (Risco) for OEL's Galoc asset
Todays bid equates to ~11cps cash.

The original Risco bid set back in July 2014 valued Galoc offshore 2P developed reserves at USD30/brl
Todays bid inches that up to USD32/brl. Interesting, in light of the current rout on POO
Obviously they're looking at a medium/long term POO higher than todays USD60-65/brl. More like USD75-80/brl I imagine.

Happy to keep holding as the farmout for SC55 is still a possibility given the attractive terms on offer from BHP's USD24.5m funding, and the industries outlook on POO demonstated in this latest bid.
Also a reasonable case for an all out TO bid, imo.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Dec 11 2014, 12:10 PM


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So whats the guts of todays news ?
Sub commercial at $60/brl POO ?
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Dec 9 2014, 02:13 PM


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Hi Barra

Yeah, POO sell off in AUD EURO etc not as dramatic.

Might be some clues in the charts here wrt where the supply destruction will come from
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Dec 9 2014, 01:20 PM


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So, although the extra supply has come from US Shale, the surplus production (~2mmbbls/day ??) that has to come off the market will be non US shale production ??
ie, production that requires ~$80brl POO and higher to breakeven ?
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Dec 9 2014, 10:23 AM


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QUOTE
How low can it go....


"Morgan Stanley slashed its 2015 base case forecast for Brent to $70 from $98 and for 2016 to $88 from $102. In its bear-case scenario, the bank sees the crude benchmark falling to a low of $43 in the second quarter of next year"
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/r-oil-falls...2#ixzz3LM6GQv3J
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Dec 4 2014, 08:52 AM


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I dont follow CVN closely.
However, I would be interested to know how the amount Berlanga is paying translates into USD/brl of 2P developed reserves ?
or, are they buying a combination of developed/undeveloped/contingent reserves ?

OEL recently sold their share of Galoc field to Risco from Singapore for ~USD30/brl - 2P developed reserves, but the deal was set in June, before the current rout on POO.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Dec 1 2014, 09:24 PM


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Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
Near the top?? Ha!

My bet is Apache will be announcing next years drilling campaign in the next few weeks. Word on the street is that it will start in Q1 and that it will be 2-3 wells

30c will be a distant memory by the end of the year


Is this still your view ?
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Dec 1 2014, 10:29 AM


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Some audio TA with Charts on Oil/Commodities here
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Nov 27 2014, 03:31 PM


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Sounds good
I look fwd to paying less across the board for most goods and services, given the lower energy inputs.

Then again, maybe the gov can now jackup the fuel excise to help plug the deficit.

It is interesting, this bearishness on POO, at the start of Northern Hemisphere winter, normally a supportive season for oil prices.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Nov 24 2014, 02:06 PM


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Did anyone see the article in The West Australian that OEL are referring to today ?

http://www.ottoenergy.com/IRM/Company/Show...ediaSpeculation
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Nov 9 2014, 11:16 AM


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Good wrap by Gary Dorsch on where we're at with Central Bank QE, USD, Gold and Oil price.

He's bullish on the S&P500 due to CB action from Japan and Europe, and the Japan carry trade.
Interestingly, seems bearish on the actual economy due to growing income inequality. Only 10% of Americans own stocks directly.

His interview starts at the 18:55min mark

http://www.financialsense.com/financial-se...her-japanese-qe
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Oct 23 2014, 02:40 PM


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Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
I'm looking at the eia numbers for 2013 and the total boe consumed is about 6.9 billion for the year giving a benefit of $69 billion.


Barra, thx for the correction. I must've been going crosseyed looking at all the zeros on my calculator.

QUOTE
Re those junk bonds tied to oil and shale projects this is interesting

http://wolfstreet.com/2014/10/15/toxic-mix...-bond-insanity/


Yes, that was discussed a while back on FSN premium...
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Oct 23 2014, 11:55 AM


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Paying on average ~$10/brl less for oil, say $85/brl compared to $95brl, would equate to a saving of $650billion over one year for the US

Their comparitively cheap energy prices are helping.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Oct 10 2014, 02:00 PM


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Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
to me it's simple-----Gov. gonna doing just enough to keep their growth on target. and it is from premier Li. do i believe what he says? i do!
because this is the efficiency from a dictatorship Gov. they don't need approval from "danm crazy" parliament like us.
i use to doubt them but after all this years, they prove that i'm wrong. look out for the bounce back barra!


No doubt the desire and authority is there to achieve their growth target, but how much financial ammo have they got left after pumping the economy since GFC1 ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Oct 6 2014, 04:51 PM


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some TA with audio

http://breakpointtrades.com/market_analysi....php?nl_id=2219
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Oct 1 2014, 09:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
USD dollar index is up another .3% overnight despite a weaker consumer sentiment reading, indicating to me the underlying driver for the USD is flight to safety (and not all about interest rates).


Agree
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Sep 22 2014, 01:53 PM


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Merc

Where you get 3.4c, I get 3.8c after allowing for current FX ~0.90

Risco has paid a USD10m deposit so worst case OEL get that if Risco pullout.

From a market valuation viewpoint, the other PI permits are worth zilch until they're faminee funded imo.

For SC55, if a farminee carries OEL for 33% of a USD50mil well, the transaction value to OEL is USD15m / AUD16.7m or 1.5cps
Obviously the risked value as any drilling nears would be greater.

The Tanzanian assets aren't been assigned any value either, however their JV partner SWE has a market cap of ~AUD24m so they must be worth something. Lets say ~$10m / 1cps to OEL. When the onshore drilling nears in 2015 it should rerate.

I'm happy to sit on this one for a while and see how things unfold.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Sep 22 2014, 12:38 PM


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With Risco paying OEL the equivalent of 10cps for Galoc, there's now minimal downside to take a punt on the SC55 farmout outcome which should be known soon.

Todays preso states

QUOTE
Currently negotiating with two potential farminees to partner for SC55 drilling campaign


There's also a chance of a counterbid for Galoc from BCP, who are in the process of taking over NDO (Galoc JV partner).
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Sep 19 2014, 12:07 PM


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Now in trading halt, but no details yet

QUOTE
The reason for the trading halt is to allow the company to prepare an announcement for release to the ASX concerning a major transaction


http://www.ottoenergy.com/IRM/Company/Show...000/TradingHalt
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Sep 15 2014, 12:37 PM


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QUOTE
AND,welcome back EB!


post was pulled ??
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Sep 5 2014, 01:43 PM


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Flower, its not an exact science trading around drilling results, but I think you've done ok this time.

There was a scary moment when you bought back in near the top, but I suspect RIA is still in the back of your mind, and you quickly reversed some of that trade.

Thanks for posting your trades, its been entertaining, and probably more to come.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Aug 18 2014, 06:08 PM


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Happy for you Flower. The score needed to be evened up bit..

I would've sold pre result, had I held any in the first place.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Aug 8 2014, 07:32 PM


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audio commentary with charts

http://www.breakpointtrades.com/market_ana....php?nl_id=2144
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Aug 4 2014, 03:58 PM


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latest audio with charts on the US markets

On a TA basis, they're expecting a short term oversold bounce, then a decent correction.

http://www.breakpointtrades.com/market_ana....php?nl_id=2138
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Jul 10 2014, 03:37 PM


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SIV program: The Great Wall of Frustration

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/articl...all-frustration
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Jul 10 2014, 12:44 PM


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and what is BoC's fee for providing this service ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Jul 9 2014, 11:06 AM


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Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
despite the cash rolling in, the company has languished share-price wise. This I am confused about.
Is it because people do not trust management?

comments?
thanks
merc


Management haven't been too flash over the years have they. The revolving door of CEO's .....
Yet to see how the current guy performs.

As for the sp languishing, I reckon the market has it priced ok based on 2P developed reserves and cash, worth around 9cps imo

If you're dubious about the SC55 farmout coming off, you can always buy in after any deal is signed off and a rig is booked.

I've reduced this week to lock in some profits and reduce downside exposure if the farmout campaign fails.
Similar strategy to sell before spud......
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jul 8 2014, 11:46 AM


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Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
The current deadline for drilling is 23 December this year. Do you see that being extended?


Stezz
When I asked the company about that, I was told everything would have to fall in place perfectly for a spud to occur by year end.
The main drag is approvals. There's around 100 different approvals required apparently.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jul 8 2014, 11:27 AM


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Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
All that said, nothing's guaranteed. Its still a punt whether or not they successfully farm it out.
We'll know soon.


Some upward movement on decent volume the last few days
June quarterly should be good, following the recently announced full repayment of the Galoc Debt facility.

News/update of the SC55 farmout is the big one, and that's expected in July.
If they've failed to attract any suitors, I estimate a drop in the sp to ~8-8.5c.
Near term upside on a successful farmout will depend on the terms of any deal, and spud timing. 1H 2015 would be my guess for any spud.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jun 28 2014, 04:47 PM


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Sign of the times Mista
Mods should be more active imo.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jun 24 2014, 01:17 PM


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Hang in there Wren. I appreciate the critical thinking.
Others have different ideas on what an investment chat site is about, I accept that.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Jun 19 2014, 03:15 PM


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In TH pending news on block 12B farmout

some were hoping OEL was the farminee, but no TH for OEL today icon14.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jun 16 2014, 02:59 PM


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Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
There has been some interesting posts on this thread.One 'theme' is that the USA will collapse for various reasons.Personally,don't buy that idea.The US is a far more flexible economy (and a much lower cost one) than Australia.Here is a line from BSpectator,via the London FT….."The US is now producing more oil than Iraq and Kuwait combined, and is expected by some to eventually pass Saudi Arabia’s production."


I think the rise in US domestic oil/gas production has given the Fed more leeway to print money without driving up energy prices too much. The lower energy costs and nearness to the market makes their domestic manufacturing more competitive against off-shoring.
Anyway, its a good story for now. Hopefully they're not overstating the reserves or understating the decline rates...
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Jun 9 2014, 02:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Not a bad read, with some interesting charts

QUOTE
“Least Loved” Bull market Enters Stage of Euphoria

by Gary Dorsch, Editor

Global Money Trends

June 6, 2014

After nearly six years of unprecedented intervention by the world’s top central banks, the world’s financial markets are hopelessly broken. What used to be accepted as market gospel that guided investors’ decisions in the marketplace, before the 2008 financial crisis, - no longer seems to apply in today’s marketplace. Wall Street is no longer the bastion of free and open markets, where the prices of bonds and stocks are determined by the collective judgment of millions of investors. Instead, market prices are determined by political appointees, called central bankers, who pull the monetary levers behind the scenes.....................


[/font]

[font=verdana,geneva,sans-serif]..........



Outlook; The “Least Loved” Bull market is still running on steroids, even though it 63-months old. The median lifetime of the Top-12 Bull markets is 55-months. So it’s lasted 8-months beyond its mid-life. A -10% correction hasn’t happened for the past 34-months, far beyond the average of 18-months between corrections. Yet it looks as though the S&P-500 index has entered the Euphoria stage, or the fourth a final phase of the Bull market. It wouldn’t be surprising to see frustrated investors jump off the sidelines to buy equities, along with indiscriminate buyers such as corporate treasurers. The Euphoria stage could see the S&P-500 index reach for the 2,200-level, or just over +10% higher from today’s close of 1,950. The ultimate market top would be reached when valuations get too stretched and prices would begin to fall under their own weight. The longer the Fed waits to lift interest rates, the bigger the ensuing Bubble and the harder the eventual crash over the distant horizon.


http://www.sirchartsalot.com/article.php?id=191





  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Jun 8 2014, 04:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Merc

Your concerns about BHP's departure from SC55 are valid
The company line is it was part of a major cost cutting program by BHP, but they would say that.

BHP had committed to drill SC55 by August 2012, and had the Transocean Deepwater Expedition booked for the job.
They were using the rig to drill 2 wells in Malaysia prior to SC55, but the rig kept braking down and BHP finally sacked it before getting to SC55. Up to now, I don't think BHP have revisited the Malaysia wells either.
So they were intent on drilling SC55 at one stage.
Then came their strategic review, plus some problems with approvals from the local (corrupt) PI authorities, and the rest is history.

According to my inquiries, the interested IOC's looking at SC55 now are already operating in the area, but not necessarily in the PI.
AFAIK, the only IOC's operating in the PI are Chevron and Shell.
Anyway, one man's trash is another man's treasure, so SC55 could be a good fit for someone, even if BHP didn't want it anymore.
Furthermore, a new player has a very low entry fee since $24.5mil of the first well is already funded by BHP on OEL's behalf.

All that said, nothing's guaranteed. Its still a punt whether or not they successfully farm it out.
We'll know soon.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jun 5 2014, 09:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
According to their reply to ASX's price query, MEO are worth over 2c for their cash alone.
Let's hope they're right and the Market sees it the same way..


Yeah, but management are worth around -2c

Not that that matters though if they can spruik the next big thing.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jun 5 2014, 03:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Anyone care to run the TA ruler over this one ?

Abnormally high volume today.

Getting close to decision on the farmout for SC55
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: May 29 2014, 02:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Another broker report offering some positive speculation that a deal will get done to farmout SC55

http://www.ottoenergy.com/IRM/Company/Show...912191/Hartleys

As I understand it, Hawkeye will cost around $50mil to drill
BHP, now gone, have agreed to pay $24.5mil for the first well on OEL's behalf. Its use it or lose it.
Also, BHP spent around $26mil on the permit for seismic etc. That data is now in OEL's hands

Do the math. On a financial basis OEL can offer extremely generous farmout terms and still retain a meaningful percentage, say 30%+.

As for how any potential farminee's perceive the geological and country risk etc, we'll know soon.
Around late June is the expected timeline for finalising a deal
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: May 22 2014, 04:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
So, the start in March turned out a tad premature, and the stop (as mentioned at the time) cost me a penny.
Meanwhile that's been made up again ... and then some
As to the cause: If it's not BESBS it must be a Technical reason. Nothing has been announced so far.


Interesting

There was a broker preso 2 days ago. Nothing new, just a reminder of what's already reported. No drilling until 2015.
It will probably drop back to low 20's in that case.

Alternatively, there's plenty of deals going on in that region, maybe some insider buying ?
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: May 6 2014, 02:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Another hurdle cleared

QUOTE
SERVICE CONTRACT 55, OFFSHORE PHILIPPINES –
CONFIRMATION OF VARIED WORK PROGRAM

Otto is pleased with the response from potential joint venturers and the progress of the farm-out campaign.
Otto Chief Executive Officer Mr Matthew Allen said:
Securing the Department of Energy acknowledgement for the varied work program timing following the force majeure period in 2012/13 is an important step in progressing our exploration program in this high impact area. The combination of the excellent prospectivity of SC55 and the funding arrangement secured by Otto means we are able to offer a very attractive exploration opportunity as part of a farm-out campaign. We look forward to securing a new venturer by mid-2014


http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140506/pdf/42pg3vd3563ptz.pdf

Should know by July if a farmin partner is secured. First well scheduled to be drilled by Dec 2014.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Apr 15 2014, 04:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Been accumulating sub 9c for a punt on SC55

Should know by midyear if their farmout efforts were successful.

Todays quarterly was a solid result.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Apr 15 2014, 03:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
B: This chart of any use?


A clearer lower scale for dates would help.

Anyway, the WTI price rose when QE1, 2, and Operation Twist were implemented, and fell back when QE1 and 2 ended.
For QE3 and 4 it doesn't correlate so much whereas other assets like stocks continued to all time highs.

Dates for the various QE's here
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Apr 14 2014, 09:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

It would be interesting to see a 5 year chart of WTI that includes the durations of QE's 1,2,3,4..

If I recall correctly wrt the earlier rounds of QE, the price of WTI would rise when QE was brought in, and fall back when QE ended.

Rising energy prices were a tax on the economy which somewhat negated what the Fed was trying to achieve with QE.

So I can see current lower energy prices through additional oil/gas production helping with the Fed's QE strategy.

Wrt manufacturing returning to the US, as opposed to say China, I suppose if its highly automated, then lower energy and transport costs could trump the $5/hr Chinese worker.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Apr 4 2014, 02:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Another year has past since the last post.

The original HOA between BHP and OEL was signed over 5 years ago. These things take time lol.

Now that BHP have walked, offers from any new prospective farminee's need to be submitted by 01-05-14, according to the farmout flyer.

http://flyers.ezdataroom.com/edr/otto/2201...Flyer_Final.pdf
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Apr 2 2014, 03:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
Looks worthy of a besbs play at some stage.
Not holding yet.


Previously SWE had a well (Kito) scheduled for Q4 '14.
Going by todays Preso, that well is off the 2014 work program, probably 2015 now.
Without near term and funded drilling, no hurry to get set from a besbs point of view.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Apr 2 2014, 01:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

There's a lot of rubbish on CNBC but this debate over HFT from last night is worth a watch.

QUOTE
Brad Katsuyama, IEX; William O'Brien, BATS Global Markets president, "Flash Boys" author Michael Lewis; and CNBC's Bob Pisani, debate high-frequency trading and the perceived unfairness in the public exchanges.


http://www.cnbc.com/id/15839263

or direct link to video

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000263252
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Mar 31 2014, 01:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

New Book out on HFT's

QUOTE
It's extremely rare that a book can unsettle Wall Street.

But later today the newest book from major US writer, Michael Lewis, will be published. It's already available on pre-order on Amazon (analogue print and ebook download).

You can bet the orders have been busy because the pre-publicity for the book has been the heaviest I have seen for any book on the markets for decades.

Limited reports about Lewis' new book - called "Flash Boys: A Wall Street Revolt" rattled through Wall Street on Friday night, our time - capping a week or so of rumours.


http://www.sharecafe.com.au/sharecafe.asp?a=AV&ai=29411
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Mar 28 2014, 03:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
After one year, I reckon Swala Energy deserves some consideration on technical merits.
(I wouldn't have noticed if my scanner hadn't suggested it. That's why I've written those scripts )


Looks worthy of a besbs play at some stage.
Not holding yet.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Mar 26 2014, 04:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Is oilers.com.au still going ?

My subscription lapsed a few years ago.

The list of BESBS plays was handy
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Mar 25 2014, 11:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
The SMH reports today that Jeremy Grantham warns of a very painful "bust 'unlike any other'"

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/ver...0325-35f34.html


but

QUOTE
We do think the market is going to go higher because the Fed hasn't ended its game, and it won't stop playing until we are in old-fashioned bubble territory and it bursts, which usually happens at two standard deviations from the market's mean. That would take us to 2,350 on the S&P 500, or roughly 25% from where we are now.


http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2014/03/24/...ederal-reserve/
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Mar 13 2014, 03:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Ok thx

I heard an interview with Treacy in Feb '14

http://www.financialsense.com/financial-se...ronment-markets

Have to subscribe to hear it in full.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Mar 13 2014, 01:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.


Hi Wren

Which subscriber area are you referring to ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Mar 11 2014, 09:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
"Given this, the employment report on Thursday will be critical for the Australian dollar to maintain its recent gains."

Rochford Capital's director Thomas Averill said the local currency also remained buoyant ahead of a multi-billion dollar issuance of Australian government bonds on Wednesday.

About $5 billion of the new 2026 bond, with a coupon of 4.25 per cent, is expected to be sold by the Australian Office of Financial Management.

"Once that is out of the way, whether [the dollar] can still hold up in the face of a soft iron ore number is going to be an interesting one," Mr Averill said.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/a-u...l#ixzz2veRA1nQK
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Mar 3 2014, 04:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
Here is a link to the BBC documentary about China I mentioned on the market future thread the other day. It was first broadcast in the UK only a day or so ago but is up on youtube already (here in Oz we cannot watch it on the BBC website).

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/02/ho...oled-the-world/



Hi T

Interesting Vid

I note one expert reckons there's an average 15% oversupply of residential property in China,

and another suggests China's property boom now, is about where the West was in 2005/6 sadsmiley02.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Mar 1 2014, 04:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

The Only Man Murdoch Fears

QUOTE
Roger Ailes is head of the Murdoch owned Fox News and said to be the only man Murdoch is afraid of. His biographer, Gabriel Sherman, contributing editor of New York magazine, discusses his new book, subtitled "How the brilliant, bombastic Roger Ailes built Fox News and divided a country".


http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/progra...raid-of/5283338
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Brierley
Posted on: Feb 27 2014, 02:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Heard an interesting interview with this chap http://gavekal.com/c/
which led me to a free download of his book http://gavekal.com/CRM/attachment.cfm?src=BOK&id=22

In Chapter 9 he discusses the lack of US money velocity due to artificially low interest rates.

QUOTE
Most worryingly, the Fed’s actions show
that it has not understood that, in the debt-deflation phase of a solvency
crisis, policymakers’ goals should not be to prop up the ‘weak hands’.
Instead, the Fed should facilitate the liquidation of ‘weak hands’ by
providing an infinite amount of liquidity to ‘strong hands’, meaning
those who can pay a ‘normal’ price for money. Strong hands would
then turn around and buy assets through the weak hands’ forced
selling.
Instead, the current zero interest rate policy ensures the survival
of zombies, who misallocate land, capital and labor, and thus guarantee
a continuous collapse in the velocity of money. This is why Walter
Bagehot’s advice to central bankers caught in a crisis was to “lend freely,
but at a price”. Without the ‘price component’ of the equation, there is no
incentive to change one’s mistaken ways. This is how zero interest rate
policies end up, somewhat counter-intuitively, triggering an ever falling
inflation rate. And in time, the ever falling inflation rate prevents the
debt deflation from ever becoming manageable


Seems relevant to what Kahuna1 has been talking about.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Feb 19 2014, 05:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

A couple of articles posted on HC today wrt problems HZN is having with the Stanley PDL approval.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Feb 5 2014, 09:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
I reduced my position size by 2/3.
They've missed their own estimated dates for the Stanley P10 award a couple of times.
See what they've got to say in the Dec quarterly, if not before.


Back in at 30c.

Commsec's take on the Dec quarter report

http://globalmarketsresearch.commbank.com....2014-1842-1.pdf
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jan 26 2014, 03:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
I still don't understand why the $6 trillion has much to do with Chinese housewife's when 80% of new issuances are purchased by the Fed who rebate the interest to the US Treasury - it money for nothing if you don't pay it back.


Snippet from a recent (subscriber only) interview with Satyajit Das

QUOTE
Some years ago I wrote a piece on China and I used the analogy of China’s problem with its extraordinary $3.8 trillion of reserves. I liken it to what is referred to as a “bouncing mine” or a “bounding mine”. Now in anti-personal warfare you use two types of mines: one is you step on it and it explodes and obviously it does mortal damage to you; the other one is when you step on it, it doesn’t go off—it’s when you step off of it, it goes off. And the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds are very much like a bounding mine for foreigners. Now this is not actually necessarily good for the world but, in the short-term, it’s certainly good for the United States.


In the following free interview, he suggests China might mentally write off ever being paid back on their US treasury holdings....

http://upclose.unimelb.edu.au/episode/266-...hina-crossroads
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Jan 20 2014, 09:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Yep, knew that's what you meant.

Not too motivated to chase the extra 1% they're offering me at the moment.

Remember when TD's were offering 7% just before the GFC. That was a good deal in hindsight.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Jan 20 2014, 03:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Got an unsolicited email from CBA today suggesting I might want to take some funds from trading account (earning 2.5%) and put them into a TD at 3.5% etc.
First time they've ever suggested how they can pay me more money.

Are interest rates set to go up ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Jan 16 2014, 12:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

I wonder how long this volume will last.

Post the update, it looks a bit boring in the medium term.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jan 16 2014, 02:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

I dont know exactly what the ASX listing rules or company policy are wrt NEN directors selling shares

Some are suggesting its a margin call, and perhaps there's a black-out period for voluntary director share sales with the market update due by week end ??

Sounds feasible, see what the price action tells us.

Still a dodgy punt until more info is on the table, imo
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jan 15 2014, 06:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
A market update has been flagged for end of week, so why not go into a trading halt until that info is released ?


unless of course the Directors want to dump shares prior to any update

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140115/pdf/42m4f23g9kjfk0.pdf
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jan 15 2014, 09:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Interesting situation.

They wont respond to shareholder inquiries but are still trading.

A market update has been flagged for end of week, so why not go into a trading halt until that info is released ?

Kind of implies the rumours aren't far off the mark
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jan 14 2014, 03:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Someone called Wilto on HC is scaring holders with alleged news from the CEO

I wont post his comments but worth having a look to see if they stack up
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jan 14 2014, 01:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Will they report the Vietnam drilling costs in the December quarter report due this month ?

Imo, its possible that they wont.

Most oilers listed here give estimates in the quarterly reports for the next quarters expenditures, (admin,development, exploration)

Looking at NEN's recent quarterlies, they don't do this.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jan 13 2014, 01:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Well put Triage

Imo, the poster requested the CEO to authorise that statement so he could re establish his own integrity on HC.
Fair enough too.

Actually feel a bit sorry for the CEO too, seems like a bit of an amateur.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jan 13 2014, 12:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Annaliese

Thx for that analysis. Good to know they still have some assets that management might be able to create shareholder wealth from.
However I think it will trade at a discount to its estimated NPV until there are funded near term sp catalysts on the horizon.

As you suggest, we'll need the Dec qtr report to see where they stand .

For now, there's some uncertainties as to if/when further drilling will take place, and how it will be funded.
I'd rather jump on when a firm besbs play with funding is in place, even if the entry price is higher.

As you might guess, I only trade the oilers short term. Gave up investing in them a long time ago.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jan 13 2014, 09:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
Took a punt on the close at 7c.

Wont hang around long whichever way it goes.


Sold on the open for 7.3c
Had a closer look at the fundamentals over the weekend and decided to get out quickly.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jan 10 2014, 03:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Down 75% in one day to 10 year lows.

Took a punt on the close at 7c.

Wont hang around long whichever way it goes.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jan 10 2014, 01:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
Problem is they will need more cash. So a CR is in the making even though they may have some cash coming in from America.


It will be interesting to see the Dec quarter cashflow report, especially the estimated expenditures for the Mar quarter.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jan 10 2014, 07:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Not holding, but over the road they say the bad news comes from Kris Energy

I guess the following link is the one

http://www.krisenergy.com/default/assets/F...%209Jan2014.pdf
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jan 8 2014, 03:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
Maybe they've just been waiting for the price of crude to lift...

I've taken some pre-Christmas profit off the table, but if 30.5 holds, I'm tempted to get some back.


I reduced my position size by 2/3.
They've missed their own estimated dates for the Stanley P10 award a couple of times.
See what they've got to say in the Dec quarterly, if not before.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jan 7 2014, 02:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

5 Ways To Profit From A China Downturn In 2014

Summary
QUOTE
- There are many signs that China’s economy is in serious trouble.

- The signs include still booming credit growth but lower output growth, softening inflation, spiking inter-bank rates indicating stresses in the financial system, as well as large corporate defaults and bankruptcies.

- These things combined have increased the odds of a more severe China economic downturn this year.

- The best ways to bet on a China crash include shorting the following: Australian banks, China property stocks, the Chinese yuan and iron ore miners such as Fortescue Metals.


Full article
http://asiaconf.com/2014/01/05/betting-aga...-china-in-2014/
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Dec 30 2013, 07:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Sorry, the link in my previous post might not be working.

Here's another link to the interview where you can choose which player to listen to it in.

http://www.financialsense.com/financial-se...much-government
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Dec 30 2013, 05:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

K1
Audio interview at following link that might interest you. Seems to echo some of your points

http://www.financialsensenewshour.com/broa...2013-1227-1.mp3

QUOTE
James believes the next crisis will be different from the previous crisis, and will result from too much government involvement in the economy. He believes that QE at this stage is not working, and is leading to asset bubbles. James also notes that every central bank is watching Japan’s massive QE experiment. If Japan can make it work, James sees accelerated global money printing coming next. James is regularly featured in The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Barrons, US News And World Report, BusinessWeek, Forbes, Fortune, The National Review, Euromoney, and Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, in addition to CNBC, CNN, Bloomberg and Fox News.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Dec 23 2013, 08:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

New Corporate video posted 16-12-2013

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3gflF5z7-yY...eature=youtu.be
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Dec 23 2013, 02:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

We're getting very close to the granting of the Stanley Field development licence (P10)

That triggers a US$74mil payment to HZN from Osaka Gas.

With Maari back online and Beibu gulf production going well, it looks like more upside to the sp on a FA basis, imo.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Dec 18 2013, 06:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Interesting test case of TA vs FA

Last we heard from HZN, granting of the Stanley PDL is expected by year end, which then triggers ~$70mil payment from Osaka.

Chart suggests that's in doubt, given the lower close on todays seemingly good news.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Dec 18 2013, 03:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Arty

From a pure TA perspective, do we look like going lower ?
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Dec 12 2013, 04:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
Can you recall the PCL spud date, and the total depth date, so that an accurate chart can be studied in retrospect?


Mbawa spudded August 2012
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Dec 12 2013, 12:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Its hard to find good BESBS plays these days.
Small cap oilers are out of favour and rife with SEPBS which takes the wind out of the sails for any prespud/preresult profits

SEPBS Spruik Early Placement Before Spud

But there still are a small few that have a good run. PCL ran from ~3c to ~18c in the leadup to Mbawa for example.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Dec 6 2013, 03:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Followup on the Emergency Unemployment Compensation cut off



QUOTE
Come January 1st, 1.3 million Americans will lose their unemployment benefits unless Congress passes a law extending them. Throughout 2014, an additional 850,000 people will lose their benefits as well..........
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/it-will-be-...2#ixzz2mfY8tjh0
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Dec 6 2013, 12:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Some interesting opinions and charts in the following article

QUOTE
......Perversely, the US-jobless rate could fall substantially early next year as belt-tightening in Washington throws 1.3-million long-term unemployed Americans off the benefit rolls. The loss of benefits would mean these workers are no longer considered to be part of the labor force. As such, economists estimate this could lower the jobless rate as much as half a percent to 6.8%, and bringing the Fed closer to its self imposed threshold of 6.5%, that it said could trigger a hike in the overnight federal funds rate. Of course, the Fed can always move the goal posts to accommodate the wishes of the White House and the Richest-1% of investors......


http://www.sirchartsalot.com/article.php?id=184
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Dec 5 2013, 11:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

The QE trap

QUOTE
..........The QE "trap" happens when the central bank has purchased long-term government bonds as part of quantitative easing. Initially, long-term interest rates fall much more than they would in a country without such a policy, which means the subsequent economic recovery comes sooner (t1). But as the economy picks up, long-term rates rise sharply as local bond market participants fear the central bank will have to mop up all the excess reserves by unloading its holdings of long-term bonds.

Demand then falls in interest rate sensitive sectors such as automobiles and housing, causing the economy to slow and forcing the central bank to relax its policy stance. The economy heads towards recovery again, but as market participants refocus on the possibility of the central bank absorbing excess reserves, long-term rates surge in a repetitive cycle I have dubbed the QE "trap."

In countries that do not engage in quantitative easing, meanwhile, the decline in long-term rates is more gradual, which delays the start of the recovery (t2). But since there is no need for the central bank to mop up large quantities of funds, everybody is no more relaxed once the recovery starts, and the rise in long-term rates is far more gradual. Once the economy starts to turn around, the pace of recovery is actually faster because interest rates are lower. This is illustrated in Figure 2..........


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/koo-says-no...0#ixzz2mYl6TNmL


  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Dec 4 2013, 12:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
They do this and generate the income via the cash and carry trade buying bonds yielding 3% and borrowing form the banks at 0.25%. This is fine, until it falls apart.


K1, can you elaborate on that ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Dec 4 2013, 09:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Good call Arty

Despite all the good FA news, it just keeps getting sold down, and under performing the sector.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Dec 3 2013, 12:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
Anyone have any thoughts on using BEAR on the ASX as a possible hedge/short for when this market rolls over?
Love this thread and thanks to all contributors!


The negative correlation of BEAR against movement in the ASX200 is about right, with an error up to 0.25% at certain times of the day.
Thats my observation from having it on the watchlist for a while.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Nov 29 2013, 01:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
Two advisors have PT's of 45c & 47c. However I think it will take news of the Stanley production licence to get there. Hzn apparently believe this will happen before Xmas, but in PNG, who knows.


Seems to be consolidating ~29.5-30c ??

Anticipation or Stanley PDL/Osaka payment and resumption of Maari production should be sp supportive going into year end.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Nov 29 2013, 12:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
I put NWE behind me after the Puffin fiasco and have never been tempted - at least by NWE! - again!


Same here, sold on news that Puffin 12 was non commercial.

Only reason I punted on Puffin was because Sinopec paid $600mil for 60%, and a Schlumberger report stated the production problems were technical downhole, not poor reservoir. Thats my excuse for a bad trade.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Nov 28 2013, 03:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Larry Summers reckons we need lower negative real interest rates

http://www.businessinsider.com/larry-summe...r-bound-2013-11

what next, money with an expiry date ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Nov 27 2013, 08:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
The US market is looking toppy, but past experience tells me that if there is a major crash, the AUD v USD will follow.
So while I may lose out on the downward swing of Wall street, I may well gain on the upward swing of the USD.
What to do, what to do!!


Buy a USD denominated ETF that shorts the S&P 500 ??

......and then hope Yellen doesn't go into hyperdrive.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Nov 27 2013, 12:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
Why Chinese People Buy So Many Homes in Palo Alto


http://www.theatlantic.com/china/archive/2...lo-alto/281234/

This is the case in Sydney CBD too, I'm told.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Nov 25 2013, 03:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
Doesn't want to break above 32c, it seems.
I'm off for now with less than 10% profit. But ... "A profit is no loss."


Nothing wrong with ~5% profit in a few days.

Good stock to watch if you want to brush up on conditional code terminology.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Nov 23 2013, 11:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

AGM newsflow was quite good.
I think HZN, with its current assets actually has a chance of creating sustainable shareholder wealth in the long term. Cant say that about most other junior oilers.

However, professional traders are all over this thing. Any whiff of the broader markets taking a breather and they're out of here.....and the markets are looking toppy.

10% profit on this trade would be great.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Nov 22 2013, 02:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

K1

To add to the discussion, here's a bullish view I received today from Incrediblecharts

QUOTE
General Outlook
As global growth recovers we expect equity markets to be buoyed by improvements in both earnings and dividends, with strong momentum over the quarter. There is much discussion in the media as to whether various markets are in a "bubble". Little attention is devoted to the fact that bubbles can last for several years, and sometimes even decades. The main driver of both stock market bubbles and real estate bubbles is debt. Anna Schwartz, co-author with Milton Friedman of A Monetary History of the United States (1963) described the relationship to the Wall Street Journal:

If you investigate individually the manias that the market has so dubbed over the years, in every case, it was expansive monetary policy that generated the boom in an asset. The particular asset varied from one boom to another. But the basic underlying propagator was too-easy monetary policy and too-low interest rates .....
Currently, there is evidence of expansive monetary policy from the Fed, but the overall impact on the financial markets is muted. Most of the QE bond purchases are being parked by banks in interest-bearing, excess reserve deposits at the Fed. The chart below compares Fed balance sheet expansion (QE) to the increase in excess reserve deposits at the Fed.




QUOTE
A classic placebo effect, the Fed is well aware that the major benefit of their quantitative easing program is psychological: there is little monetary impact on the markets.

Corporate debt (green line below) is expanding rapidly as corporations take advantage of the opportunity to issue new debt at low interest rates, but household debt (red) is still shrinking.




QUOTE
There are pockets of concern, like the rapid recovery in NYSE margin debt, but risk of a Dotcom-style stock market bubble or a 2002/2007 housing bubble is low while household debt contracts.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Nov 19 2013, 01:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
Can anyone help with a chart for horizon and where they see a bottom for the share price.


A Chart/TA view would be interesting at this stage as the big selling of the previous few days seems to have abated

AGM on Thursday so hopefully we'll get uptodate confirmation that the various projects remain on track.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Nov 15 2013, 01:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

The UW getting out would be a contributing factor, perhaps causing others to sell too, or short it.

Company newsflow and trading of peers doesn't justify a selloff imo

Hopefully no insider selling. I'll hold for now.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Nov 14 2013, 01:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

I've had it my watchlist for ages but rarely touch it due to the professional traders all over it. Seems to be them skimming off small profits at the expense of retail punters, imo.
Yesterday there was a big dump on no news to a 12 month low @ 31.5c
Is it now oversold, or set to drop further ?
Any TA views ?

Holding at 31.5c entry
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Nov 12 2013, 06:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

K1

I came across an article with links that mentions the Labor Participation Rate's effect on the US unemployment number.

Might be of interest to you.

QUOTE
...Brusca's work suggests that a constant, rather than a falling, labor participation rate applied today would yield an unemployment rate somewhere close to 12%. So his work implies that the declining labor participation rate accounts for about 4.5 points of the drop in the unemployment rate. This does not bode well for robust economic recovery in the US....


http://www.financialsense.com/contributors.../three-dynamics
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Nov 12 2013, 01:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
short aussie is the way for near term, looks like it is heading to 0.91---0.92ish base! imho


Good call so far EB

Are you still targeting 0.91--0.92 ?

or anyone else that wants to chime in
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Nov 8 2013, 11:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
Based on the EBF, the fiscal gap is $47 trillion. But based on the AFS, the fiscal gap is -- $205 trillion! Hence, in presenting a picture of our nation’s long-term fiscal imbalance based on the EBF, the CBO, in effect, understated the problem by three quarters!


http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-exchang...-222918359.html

http://www.kotlikoff.net/
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Nov 4 2013, 04:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

I think Mr Bear's comment was toungue in cheek ?

My expenditures are in USD but I derive my income from Australian investments. However, for the long term good I'd like to see a lower AUD. Thats the easiest way to give Australian workers a pay cut in global terms, and make them more competitive.

Not sure if the RBA can lower interest rates anymore given the elevated property prices.
What other tricks might they have, Kahuna1 ??
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Nov 3 2013, 04:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Inside Business was fairly interesting today

http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/news/insidebus...x_0311_512k.mp4

There's a section with Gerard Minack starting at 15.50mins re US GDP and Global equities prices vs EPS

The following chart from the vid shows how Global EPS have remained relatively flat since late 2011 compared to Equities

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Nov 2 2013, 03:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
Pluto is not big, 4-5 TCF, and Woodside will barely make money on it. Gorgon is very large but the ROR on this investment is also low, 6-8% from all accounts. Wheatstone is a different story and it is looking the goods.

These low rates of return are largely due to the fact that Australia is one of the most expensive places in the world to do business for an oil and gas or a mining company. Wages are too high and the AUD is too high to make it competitive to other places on the planet. You must have heard the speeches from the big company CEO's over the last couple of years?

The AUD needs to come down if Australia wants its large projects to go ahead (e.g. Olympic Dam)


Article in the Australian the other day

QUOTE
....Since the US began to approve shale gas exports to Japan in May, the Japanese government has been using it as a catalyst to try to end the oil-linked pricing system that underpins Australian LNG projects and reduce the country's trade deficit.

The Japanese government hopes that once shale gas imports arrive, not only will future contracts have to incorporate the US gas price but existing contracts can be renegotiated to factor this in, which Australian producers will fight vigorously.....


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/m...f-1226748532992

Part of the reason for the rally in the US market is the belief, rightly or wrongly, that cheaper domestic energy is going to revive US manufacturing.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Oct 30 2013, 01:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Thx all for the tips/info

We'll see how the Fed taper talks go this week, a trade in either direction might be a bit clearer after that.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Oct 30 2013, 11:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
While I don't have any "fundamental" information about iShares, I do have their ETFs in my watchlist, over which I run regular scans.
And today's morning run included IZZ, "China 25", as a potential rising star.


Arty
I guess this is a bit of a forex punt as well. A rising FTSE China-25 with falling AUD would be optimum for IZZ.
Do you have any TA opinion on the AUD vs CNY ?
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Oct 30 2013, 11:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
short aussie is the way for near term, looks like it is heading to 0.91---0.92ish base! imho


Stevens and Hockey definitely want it lower

but

QUOTE
There will be no immediate easing of the easing.

In a dramatic shift, the October CNBC Fed Survey finds Wall Street expecting the Federal Reserve to maintain its $85 billion level of monthly asset purchases until April 2014. That's five months ahead of the average in the last survey.


http://www.cnbc.com/id/101149149
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Oct 29 2013, 03:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
woooohhhhh boy!! aussie dives !


Hokey's forex trade

http://media.smh.com.au/business/businessd...es-4869296.html
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Oct 24 2013, 03:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

K

Seeing as your PDF included a lot about the US and your currency trading days, thought I'd post this article from yesterday

QUOTE
ALARM over the rising Australian dollar has spurred the Abbott government to develop contingency plans for a global shock amid fears the US will fail to settle its damaging political row on economic policy.

.....The changes came after the Treasurer and Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens returned from a global summit in Washington DC earlier this month that deepened government concerns about a hit to economic growth.....


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-a...-1226745607274#
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Oct 23 2013, 01:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

One for the bulls

Kyle Bass: Fed Won't Raise Interest Rates for Another 3-5 Years; Stocks "The Only Game In Town

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors...ly-game-in-town

Full audio out later in the week for subscribers.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Oct 22 2013, 01:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Wrt Arty's post, I was just questioning the notion that the wealthiest Americans dont pay their share of taxes
Here's a chart, a bit old though



http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkbl...ing-your-taxes/
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Oct 22 2013, 12:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
Given that the 20% wealthy people - the ones that own about 90% of US assets! - won't pay tax, it'll be left to the 80% have-nots, many of whom are unemployed or underemployed, to carry the can.


Various articles quoting figures from the CBO suggest otherwise

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkbl...ing-your-taxes/
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Oct 17 2013, 04:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Audio interview with Satyajit Das and Dr John Lee

QUOTE
China's Shadow Banking industry is made up of a wide variety of lenders; pawn shops, underground lenders, Trust companies selling wealth management products. All these shadow bankers are unregulated and according to JP Morgan, could be worth up to 70 percent of China's GDP. According to financier George Soros "The rapid growth of shadow banking has some disturbing similarities with the subprime-mortgage market in the US that caused the financial crisis of 2007-2008,"


http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/progra...banking/5024242
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Oct 14 2013, 03:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669



any sign of a blowoff ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Oct 14 2013, 02:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
In case anyone is still interested, here are some current figures on foreign held US debt:

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/da...cuments/mfh.txt


Which entity is the biggest outright holder of US treasuries.
The US FED would have to be up there by now ?

Edit
Quick google search......US Fed holds a bit over two tril and counting

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TREAST
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Oct 8 2013, 12:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

That's the trouble with Obamacare, it keeps poor people living too long.

joking.....maybe.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Sep 29 2013, 08:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

For a TA perspective I like the following daily reports and weekly roundup from the free Redback Market Report

a snippet from this weekends roundup
QUOTE
SUMMARY & CONCLUSION

On the international scene, the week was generally weak, with Australia the best performer. The results: XJO, +0.58%; SP500, -1.05%; Europe Top 100, -0.4%; China, -2.58%; Nikkei, +0.12%, Global Dow, -0.74%, Emerging Markets, -2%. For the Third Quarter (which has one day to run), all major indices were positive with Australia, once again doing best, up 10.68% – marginally better than the Dow Jones World Index, up +10.48%. The Australian figures for the Q3 were quite bullish with cyclicals doing best and defensives (while still positive) were at the bottom of the leader board. This is the sort of configuration we expect in a bull rally.

The Australian market is overbought in the short, medium and long term. The easy money has been made. Entering now in the expectation of further big gains would, in my opinion, be unwise.

This is a rosy performance by Australia. But we don’t exist isolated from world markets. The hitch could be in the American Bonds. They’ve formed a double bottom – always a “buy”. The relative strength of Stocks/Bonds is deteriorating. Further appreciation in the 20-Year Bonds and a drop in the SP500 would switch the American market into “risk off” mode. That should result in a correction – and we would not be immune to such a move.

China is in a long-term down trend. Copper is in a long-term down-trend. The strength this quarter in the Australian market may not have much further to run unless we see some strength coming in China and Copper.

The next couple of weeks should be interesting.

Remember: do your own research. Make your own decisions. I hope that the information I show might help you just a little.


http://redbackmarketreport.wordpress.com/
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Sep 16 2013, 05:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

understood, pm sent
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Sep 16 2013, 03:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
“I have reluctantly concluded that any possible confirmation process for me would be acrimonious and would not serve the interest of the Federal Reserve, the Administration or, ultimately, the interests of the nation’s ongoing economic recovery,” Summers said in a letter to the president that followed the telephone call.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/summers-w...ist=tbeforebell
==========

the charts been blown away, and shorts will be squeeezzzzzed to really dry.
asx200 currently at 5275ish from IG.


and privately, he's probably happy he has an excuse not to inherit a huge headache.

Today's ASX200 rally somewhat tempered by the AUD appreciating 1%.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Sep 15 2013, 07:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Here's a link to the Redback market report.

http://redbackmarketreport.wordpress.com/

He posts on HC, that's where I saw his work first.

Pretty decent and comprehensive technical analysis as far as I can tell.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Sep 11 2013, 08:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
anyway, i reckon we should pay good attention to what those Govt. reserve bankers. that is where we have good chance to make few bucks!


Yes, they seem to be in control for now.
I'm out of specs/anything illiquid though....
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Sep 11 2013, 12:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
i saw Faber still bagging shanghai markt on CNBC even he manage to lose so much money for his follower and he still going..LOL...hat off to him!


it's so bad, you need to buy my newsletter
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Sep 8 2013, 04:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

5 surgeons!




Five surgeons are discussing who makes the Best

patients to operate on.

The first surgeon, , says, 'I like to see accountants


on my operating table because when you open them up, everything

inside is numbered.'

The second, , responds, 'Yeah, but you should try


electricians! Everything inside them is color coded.'

The third surgeon, , says, 'No, I really think librarians


are the best, everything inside them is in alphabetical order.'

The fourth surgeon, chimes in: 'You know, I like


construction workers...Those guys always understand when you have

a few parts left over.'

But the fifth surgeon, shut them all up when


he observed: 'You're all wrong. Politicians are the easiest to operate on.
There's no guts, no heart, no balls, no brains, and no spine..


Plus, the head and the ass are interchangeable.'

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Brierley
Posted on: Sep 7 2013, 05:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

US TREASURY BONDS 101: WHY 3% MATTERS

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000197372

Ok, flame away
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Sep 6 2013, 12:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

I sold BEAR etf this morning for a modest profit and have been accumulating some USD this week.

If the Libs get a clear a majority I expect public sector spending will take a hit putting more pressure on the RBA to cut rates to support the private sector.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Aug 24 2013, 08:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

K

Interesting posts/pdf's
Appreciate the research that's gone into backing up your opinion with historical data.

I came across the following article today which seems to echo some of what you've written.
You might find it interesting.

QUOTE
......What happens when all systemic risk ends up concentrated in the central state? Let's start by noting that the central state (Federal government) backstops every category of risk: major flooding, crop failure, bank failure, student loans, old-age pensions, healthcare for the elderly and low-income, disability, and so on.......


http://www.financialsense.com/http%3A/%252...unlimited-state
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Brierley
Posted on: Aug 19 2013, 03:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Yeah, definitely not a trading stock.
As you suggest, long term hold until if/when Albers decides to sell to a major or woteva. Probably years away.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Aug 19 2013, 03:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

It will remain relatively undervalued due to the shares being so illiquid, imo

What % of shares does Albers and associates own ?
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Aug 16 2013, 12:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
Winchester upgrade?


Tiddler jv partner OXX down...as I type.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Aug 6 2013, 04:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
Of course, the flip side of the equation: Saving becomes less attractive because every saver's "wages" have been cut by 9.09%. Making matters worse, we now have to pay an additional "insurance premium" to protect ourselves against loss of income.
"How so?" you ask?
If you're a self-funded retiree and rely on the interest as your "wages", the new deposit guarantee levy amounts to precisely that: An additional premium to make sure the Banks don't "lose" your capital. Surely as death and taxes, the banks will pass that impost on to you, their customer.


I can see what you're getting at.
However, term deposits are paying out up to 4.2% so .25% rate cut as a percentage of 4.2% is around 6% if you want to split hairs.
Jumping out of 4% guaranteed into divvy paying stocks might still be difficult for some.

http://www.infochoice.com.au/banking/savin...rest-rates.aspx
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Aug 5 2013, 12:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
SP has risen to 14.5c should be over 20c in coming month.... Tight registry and analyst support will make this a mover . Any surprise projects could happen anytime with this cash rich oiler .
Hold one million shares ; dyor etc.,.


Wow, what a change in sentiment from your last two posts.

QUOTE
We should be prepared for the worst when the qrtly comes next 2 weeks . Things not really good is my feel and 10c may well result . Maari is the lead for bad news. 13.5c today on volume .... not a good sign .


QUOTE
CUE turned up at the O&G Excellence Conf in Sydney this week gone . Had a full presentation about nothing , NOTHING !! new.

Why bother , if there is no point to it ,what is this effort supposed to achieve . If anyone can enlighten me , it would be appreciated .
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Aug 1 2013, 12:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Mista

I don't have a cfd acc but have bought some BEAR this week as insurance against my longs, and have reduced longs.
Look fwd to your TA view if/when the charts signal a short ASX200 opportunity for you.
Can continue any further discussion on the Index thread I suppose.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Aug 1 2013, 10:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
A brand new BEAR SUIT and USD


but the falling AUD is propping up the ASX200 so not that great for BEAR atm.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jul 31 2013, 03:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
I'm targeting an exit of 15c/sh prior to first drilling results, around late Q3 going by current schedule.


Bit of buying today after yesterdays positive quarterly report. $59mil in cash, 9 wells scheduled over next 12 months.

As for 15c/sh target prior to Naga Utara-2 results, really depends now on the risk trade. Markets looking a bit toppy atm so we'll see.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jul 31 2013, 02:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

I think the two things that discount PPP's sp are

:the directors track record in destroying shareholder wealth
:the directors large shareholdings that gives them the votes to ward off any takeover offer, no matter how cheap PPP gets

One day you'd think they will sell though, but in the meantime they get paid to maintain the status quo, so no hurry for them.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jul 18 2013, 05:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Good to see a junior oiler have a win on one of these high risk/high reward wells.
In fact, its been a while since Albers had a win amongst his various interests.
  Forum: By Share Code

Brierley
Posted on: Jul 11 2013, 01:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
XEJ sends lots of mixed messages, depending on the time frame we choose.
Monthly seems to have stabilised with the last envelope break (February) suggesting a Long. However, it's dropped back again, staying below long and medium-term falling trendlines. Unless it gets back above 13500, I remain skeptical.


Just above 13500 as I type. Getting interesting
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Jul 9 2013, 02:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

QUOTE
Unless it gets back above 13500, I remain skeptical.


Good info, thx
  Forum: Macro Factors

Brierley
Posted on: Jul 9 2013, 12:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,669

Arty
Do have a chart/opinion for the XEJ ?
Looks good so far.
  Forum: Macro Factors

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