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Banks, behaving badly
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 5 2019, 10:47 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Feb 3 2019, 12:37 PM

The RC talk was tough but did the outcomes/recommendations fit the crimes - the Banks seemed to have come off lightly IMHO.

Appears the shorters, who expected more, are having to cover their positions this morning - thus all Banks up considerably

Below are daily charts yesterday for all 4 Banks - odd how the trading patterns for all look identical - big spike in the morning
Attached File(s)
Attached File  asx.png ( 77.02K ) Number of downloads: 2
Attached File  cba.png ( 76.96K ) Number of downloads: 3
Attached File  nab.png ( 76.19K ) Number of downloads: 0
Attached File  wbc.png ( 76.81K ) Number of downloads: 2

 




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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
early birds
post Posted: Feb 5 2019, 09:19 AM
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https://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-fi...20190203-h1at2t

Big banks: The report makes no changes to vertical integration, or any expansion to how banks asses the suitability of borrowers; it also does not prohibit the use of the "household expenditure measure" as the basis for making loans;
.....

Losers
The (at least) three companies facing prosecution over fee for no service: The final report is scathing about the industry-wide scandal fee for not service scandal where between them AMP, ANZ, CBA, NAB and Westpac will refund customers at least $850 million.

Mortgage brokers:

Retail super funds

Insurers



 
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 3 2019, 12:37 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Feb 1 2019, 09:23 PM

An Upheaval Is Coming for Australian Banks
By Jackie Edwards
February 3, 2019, 8:00 AM GMT+11 Corrected February 3, 2019, 10:10 AM GMT+11
Inquiry may recommend financial firms be broken up, pay curbed
Bribery, forgery, charging the dead among scandals uncovered

QUOTE
Potential Charges
There will be some nervous people waiting to see if Hayne recommends criminal or civil charges against individuals or companies. The prospect of charges was raised during the hearings and all the big-four banks, AMP and IOOF acknowledged misconduct that in some instances may have breached the law. Hayne can’t lay charges, but he can recommend the public prosecutor consider bringing them.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...nd=premium-asia



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 1 2019, 09:23 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Feb 1 2019, 08:36 PM

Did Frydenberg organise this photo shoot without Haynes knowledge - I didn't think Commissioners do this kind of publicity stunt. Shocking lack of judgement on Frydenbergs part. Once Josh reads the report I'm guessing the smile will be wiped off his face.

QUOTE
It’s known, in the game, as a picture opportunity.

Politician on the make meets constituent/kiddie/moviestar/public figure, hands are grasped, big smiles, cameras whir, flashes pop and the happy little circus moves on.

Sometimes, it doesn’t work so well. The kiddie bursts into tears. Sometimes, it’s a bust. The movie star’s smile is so radiant the politician may as well have stayed in bed.

And then there’s the day the Treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, met the royal commissioner, Kenneth Hayne

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/...201-p50v75.html
Attached File  iCckxPzh.jpg ( 32.05K ) Number of downloads: 0


The whistleblower, politician and journo who hauled the banks before a royal commission
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-01/how-...ection=business



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
triage
post Posted: Feb 1 2019, 08:36 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Feb 1 2019, 06:43 PM

Any experts on body language out there?

https://www.theguardian.com/global/video/20...ergs-hand-video



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 1 2019, 06:43 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jan 30 2019, 02:02 PM

Update on SP

ANZ - down o.4%
CBA - down 0.21%
NAB - down 0.29%
WBC - up 0.12%

Shortman total short positions as at 25/1/2019 - short positions since 25/1/19 yet to be added and appear higher than normal

ANZ - 1.44% https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=anz
CBA - 2.09% https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=cba
NAB - 0.70% https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=nab
WBC - 1.96% https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=wbc

In today's AFR - Hedge funds short banks ahead of banking royal commission final report
QUOTE
Offshore investors have been harder to lure in and have been net sellers of Australia's big four bank stocks, with NAB being the bank stock most sold by overseas funds. Overseas funds have also sold off ANZ and CBA while being net buyers of Westpac.


QUOTE
Macquarie's analysts, however, see a silver lining in the build up in short interest, explaining that a benign final report from Commissioner Hayne may result in a short squeeze or spike in share prices, as speculators who are short the stock are forced to buy it back during a rally, sending prices even higher.


read more - https://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-fi...20190201-h1aqgp

Let's hope there are no "leaks" from the report during the course of the weekend and Monday - the report not being made public until after the market close on Monday



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 


blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 30 2019, 02:02 PM
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The final report from the Hayne's Royal Commission into banking being presented to the Gvt on Friday - won't be made available to the market until after ASX close Monday next week. All SP's of the major players have been declining, whilst short positions rising.
Total short positions of the big 4 banks, as at 23/1/2019, shown in this graph - https://www.shortman.com.au/market
ANZ = 1.35% https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=anz
CBA = 2.11% https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=cba
NAB = 0.69% https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=nab
WBC = 2.03% https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=wbc

Attached File(s)
Attached File  anz.png ( 92.38K ) Number of downloads: 2
Attached File  cba.png ( 98.28K ) Number of downloads: 2
Attached File  nab.png ( 89.29K ) Number of downloads: 2
Attached File  wbc.png ( 91.29K ) Number of downloads: 2

 




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: triage  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 21 2019, 01:57 PM
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extract from - 2018 was a bad year for bank shares. 2019 is likely to be even worse, says Victor Hill. - https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/bad-news-for-banks/

QUOTE
Even Australian banks were culpable – as I reported during a visit to Australia in April last year. All the major Australian banks were involved in a rate-rigging scandal in 2010, focused on the Bank Bill Swap Rate (BBSW) – the Ozzie equivalent of LIBOR. Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ASX:ANZ), National Australia Bank (ASX:NAB) and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA) paid penalties, while Westpac (ASZ:WBC) was let off on the dubious grounds that its attempts to manipulate the rate had been unsuccessful. Macquarie Bank (ASX:MQG) was found to have engaged in fraudulent foreign exchange trading. CBA was found to have been involved in large scale money laundering. In fact, Citigroup (NYSE:C) and Deutsche Bank are currently facing charges in Australia around insider trading in ANZ shares.


QUOTE
I think it was John Maynard Keynes who said that a banker is a man (again) who will never lend you an umbrella if it is raining. Bankers have the mentality of unambitious civil servants who believe, thanks to their inflated salaries, that they are entrepreneurs. They are not entrepreneurs – and very few of them even understand entrepreneurship. The billionaire buccaneer capitalist Jimmy Goldsmith (1933-97) – who was prophetic about the nefarious nature of the European Union, by the way – hated bankers even more than he hated politicians.

These scummy banks will not recover in 2019. Their time is past. Avoid them.




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 14 2019, 10:09 PM
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Good article by Johnny Shpiro, who provides a list of "players" who - After Hayne royal commission, who can restore faith in our financial system?
Apart from the obvious ones - regulators, auditors, politicians, etc - he's given mention to a number of others, including

the proliferation of pay-for-play trade press and social media promoters pushing questionable stocks onto retail investors.

The "credibility renters" who join an advisory board and/or give public endorsements

https://www.afr.com/opinion/after-hayne-roy...20190112-h1a081





--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 12 2019, 12:01 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Dec 18 2018, 09:48 AM

Good to see some of those involved in the Mozambique loans scandal are being held to account - 3 former Credit Suisse employees have been indicted for their role, however Credit Suisse has distanced itself from the scandal claiming the employees acted on their own.

QUOTE
The analysts cited by Bloomberg Intelligence believe the US authorities could pursue Credit Suisse for "violation of the rules of investment in financial markets", and for its failure to stop the fraudulent scheme of Pearse, Singh and Subeva, which went on for about four years.


https://allafrica.com/stories/201901100033.html

QUOTE
Emerging markets were a boon for bankers after the 2008 crisis, when resource-rich Africa and Asia seemed to have definitively decoupled from the debt-laden economies of the U.S. and Europe. Yet as lawsuits over alleged corruption and bribery pile up, an uglier side of those glory days is emerging — and taxpayers and investors will be left to pick up the tab.

Credit Suisse Group AG’s dealings in Mozambique, where about half the population lives in poverty, are the latest to be thrust in the spotlight by U.S. prosecutors. Three former employees were charged in New York this week with defrauding investors over $2 billion of state-backed loans that prosecutors say generated at least $200 million in bribes and kickbacks. Mozambique’s former finance minister has also been charged and faces extradition — something he has said he will fight. (Lawyers for the three bankers couldn’t immediately be reached for comment, according to Bloomberg News.)


The case has eerie parallels with Malaysia’s 1MDB scandal, in which two former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. bankers were last year charged for allegedly covering up bribes and kickbacks from a state development fund.

Both Goldman and Credit Suisse say they were deceived by rogue bankers who circumvented internal risk controls to complete the deals. (The Swiss bank itself hasn’t been accused of wrongdoing.) The charge sheets in the two cases set out the lengths to which information was hidden internally: In Credit Suisse’s case, prosecutors argue that much due diligence — from company directors to competitive tender processes — was faked.

But the common thread is also one of boom-time activity, when red flags might be more likely to be missed. The backdrop to these alleged frauds was a time, around 2012 and 2013, when banks were desperate for new sources of profit after the financial crisis. Between 2008 and 2012, annual emerging-market bond issuance rose from $487.3 billion to $1.6 trillion. Amid that boom, risk controls appeared to take a back seat.

The lucrative fees added an incentive. The $600 million Goldman netted from 1MDB’s fundraising amounted to a stunning 10 percent of the $6.5 billion raised. A report by Kroll, disputed by Credit Suisse, alleges the Swiss bank received about $160 million in fees for arranging $2 billion of loans in Mozambique. This included $141 million of “contractor fees,” which were, however, passed on to other banks
.



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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