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The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king ?
rog
post Posted: Nov 20 2020, 04:08 PM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Nov 20 2020, 07:01 AM

Not so much as COVID fatigue, more like fatigue from all the bullsh1t from RightWing groups.

They said trust us, we know better. They failed to deliver on that trust.

By RW I mean in general, the system that we have lived under for the last few decades, where inequality is a consequence of the culture wars.

I see 2020/21 as being the period when RW suffers a recall for exceeding their use by date, dinosaurs like Trump will be indicted and interred, then stuffed and mounted in a museum somewhere. For amusement. The ultimate reality show.

It’s a period of major disruption and for the most part, it’s all good.



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kahuna1
post Posted: Nov 20 2020, 07:01 AM
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Yep
at times I feel the futility of it. Stocks likely with a long path if ever to break even ... darlings of the new Robin Hood traders.
Then I remember, time and time again, over and over, the cycle of the market. the hero's, become sad zeros. Sometimes it takes years. So many fads, stocks I hated at say $10- loved at $1- and back and forth we go.

As to fiat currencies, I agree to some extent ... ones that have no fiscal restraint or even trying are at best jokes and eventually sometimes a much longer time frame, crumble. That they are not back by physical gold is to me an aside. Its whether the government accurately reports inflation, attempts to balance the book and erode or god forbid pay back debt over time. USD fails totally on many fronts where the EU and AUD are on totally different tracts.
Buying some fad ... I have some cheap new bitcoin for sale ... backed by nothing awaiting some 12 year old with an Atari computer to steal. Then again, I see the value of something like a stable coin backed by say a list of commodities and yep including gold ....

Right now extreme Covid Fatigue is setting in . Backed by an idiot of a dictator who again today suggested some magical medical cures for Covid.
Suggested mortality rates are falling when their main drug was effectively banned in half the world last week. Reality is, sadly, post May the mortality rate has remained basically constant. If one looks at pre May 2020 in the USA, it hit the very elderly and vulnerable and yep treatment has improved, a tiny fraction. Main drugs are .... ones used for 30 years.

If one keeps this curse out of the elderly .. where mortality is off the charts, of course the numbers go down.If your hospitals are not totally swamped ... same thing ..
Ventilators .... same thing ...

Sadly for the USA with Thanksgiving next week on the 26th .... likely most families will celebrate, indoors and well an already bad thing become worse for them. Then we have Christmas ... same stuff ...
I too am sick of this virus ... but relaxing if I was in the EU or USA is not an option. Death numbers for the USA already occurring right now, but not to be reported due to the lag for 30 days, are shocking even the ones being reported NOW let alone the doubling from here already locked in. They have occurred or totally unavoidable ...

Into this today we have a president again and again downplaying the issue, touting non effective drugs and yep ... totally nuts.
Vaccine is coming, even if its not well tested. Of course good, but at best 7% of USA by end of year. Yes Good but until end of 2020 PLUS 20 days for the second shot so 20th Jan 2020 .... 9 weeks .... NO change. NONE.

Lets relax since the plane in front of us landed safely ... the pilots take a break and see what occurs.
Market wise, well ... been around a long time. The same old same old, this is the new way to do things and your wrong, blah blah bah. Strange that buying an asset for 50 cents in the dollar instead of following the herd buying the latest fad that is trading at 100 times sales. No profit, so no P/E is the quick way to riches. Well it is, as long as the music does not stop or pause.

Prefer my way.

If anything overnight the USA side has gone nuttier via Trump. I do tend to focus on the USA for the very good reason that the world follows them in equity pricing. They go up, we go up, they get crushed, we get crushed. Reality is .... REALITY is that USA has stuff all to do with our economy. Its not even an important trading partner other than when we buy planes that don't fly or rusting old USA warships.

I note that the USA senate has taken another break. It managed to confirm a Judge for life aged 19 ... prior to the break. Well not 19 but 33 ... with barely 5 years of third grade experience. NO stimulus, no funds for vaccine deployment .... no agreement for the budget so the USA does not shut down when the current debt limit is hit in 25 days.

Oh and covid wise new highs ... death post May. Of course the market rallied silly.


For myself, yes the vaccine will be good but, well until say mid 2021 not much of an impact if even then with likely 40% in the USA not taking it.For me, its assured USA hits reported 350,000 dead by Jan 2021 ... likely 450k or 500k .
Half if not more avoidable.

Trump seems intent on causing mayhem. I did see the New York attorney general on Sam B and beyond being funny, if I was Trump, I too would be worried about loosing protection. This woman, an African American ... did not threaten or bluster ... just went we are prepared. Trump University which was a sham she closed down .... and so too Trump Charity same thing a sham ... the charges for them were not able to be enforced due to the clowns location at the time. As for the rest, they are even more serious tax evasion, insurance fraud and a blood long list ...
that's what this tantrum is about Trump wise. Neo liberals go oh its business .... it is NOT business to put fake totals in your tax returns. One set for on group and another for the other, and a new set of books to the banks, and another even more absurd one for the insurers.

I would prefer NOT to be on the receiving end of this sort of stuff.

Meanwhile the market will do what it will. Robin Hood traders, the new generation of heros and YEP .... I was one in another life, not a hero ...

There are old traders and their are bold traders, but no such thing as an old Bold Trader. The percentages and stupidity get them every time.

aoaoh look USA rallies to its high on the close. Must be the new record deaths reported yesterday but on virus numbers form 4 weeks ago ? Or is it that the senate has taken a break ? Or that Trump is still foaming at the mouth on twitter ?

I find it amazing the excuse for the rally this day. Will they blink ? Likely not. I await of course the music stopping as it always does and ... the bargain sales that occur every few months.




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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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kiril
post Posted: Nov 19 2020, 04:46 PM
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In Reply To: Mags's post @ Nov 19 2020, 11:24 AM

Great posts K1 and Mags...thanks for sharing.

I know I said it earlier but Mags you are spot on:

"capitalism without bankruptcy is like Catholicism without hell".....it just doesn't work.

System is broke. And like Mags points out, a lot of people who know nothing about stocks will make a fortune and many smart people who see every indicator saying sell and sit on the side line will end up losing money or at least the opportunity cost will be huge of earning cash rates in perpetuity.

So what is one to do?

Kiril


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Mags
post Posted: Nov 19 2020, 11:24 AM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Nov 19 2020, 09:56 AM

Kahuna1, the reason the market is completely at odds with the real world is surprisingly simple: Fiat currency.
We are watching the complete destruction of capitalism and the currency we've used for nearly 50 years (ie. paper US$). It's been a good run, it's typically 40 years for a currency system.
Will we go down a hyperinflation black hole? Not in the next few years.
Calling the end of capitalism is a big one: and I'm right on this: For most australian's don't even know what capitalism is: I was 30 before I found out. Upto that point, I'd been lead to believe communism sucks, and capitalism means free... Far from it: Capitalism means the capital moves to sectors in the economy to seek return by meeting a need.
We are far, far from that place now.

You now have to play like the big boys: Value means nothing: Fundamentals mean nothing:
You're best bet (and it is a bet) is to figure out what the central banks and the governments wont allow to fail: ALR (now CLF) taught me a costly lesson in the GFC, they dumped their WES because they needed to roll over IIRC $5b loan, and the directors of ALR didn't think that kind of money was available for a 'small' aussie company.
Of course they got the money: Even if they didn't, the government had all but guaranteed WES the money: It's 50,000 jobs on the line. Compare that to the $2b pumped into holden for just 2,000 jobs, and there's no comparison: The gov would save them: Everytime.
So now, it's just a big game of liquidity and pulling out dividends, and if the cashflow dries up: hope you company is one the central banks and or govco will prop up.
Nothing more, nothing less.
People who know nothing about stocks will make fortunes, and some that are smart but timid will lose fortunes. Good businesses are going to go bust, and terrible businesses are going to be flush with cash.
The world really isn't fair: it never was. We just had that illusion.
AS the currency approaches end of life, more and more manipulation is required. It becomes more and more unstable: Each intervention larger than the last (by more than just inflation: thats the real signal). Banks, infrastructure, construction... sectors that are 'easy sell's' to the public for support are the clear winners: But don't forget crap like media companies, entertainment etc etc. Health is the big one: billions and billions being sprayed away on a vaccine that likely doesn't work: How convenient to divert research money into dividends...
The entire financial system is sick to the core: just grit your teeth and work with it.
Otherwise, you'll get left behind in the cestpool or wage earning idiots with no assets, and growing debts.
/sigh/
I'm on the right side of this equation, but it feels shit.





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kahuna1
post Posted: Nov 19 2020, 09:56 AM
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Election officials in Michigan's largest county certified the presidential election results after Republican members of the board initially refused to certify the vote tallies. The four-member Wayne County Board of Canvassers had deadlocked on the day for Michigan counties to certify the vote – which Trump called "a beautiful thing" on Twitter. Hours later, however, the board — composed of two Republicans and two Democrats — reversed itself and unanimously agreed to certify the results and ask the secretary of state to conduct an independent audit. (Politico / Washington Post / CNN)


Trump fired the Department of Homeland Security director who repeatedly refuted Trump's baseless claims of voter fraud. Christopher Krebs, the nation's top election security official, was fired after his agency, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, released a statement calling the 2020 election "the most secure in American history." Trump – in two misleading tweets about the security of the election – said Krebs' termination was "effective immediately." The former director acknowledged Trump's action in a tweet: "Honored to serve. We did it right. Defend Today, Secure Tomrorow." Adam Schiff, chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, called the move "pathetic and predictable from a president who views truth as his enemy." (NPR / Associated Press / Washington Post /Axios / USA Today / The Guardian)

White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows "can't guarantee" that lawmakers will reach a deal to avert a mid-December shutdown. Congress and the White House have until Dec. 11 to approve new spending legislation to prevent the federal government from shutting down. (Washington Post)

No stimulus .... No money for testing let alone contact tracing .... White house Press person Kaley Dumbass called any move to wear masks or close restaurants Orwellian ... that it infringes on some right.
USA hit highest number of weekly infections and highest deaths since April. Sadly as the USA takes 31 days .... about 20 days after the event to report COVID deaths, sadly with the weekly 7 day average at 160,000 PLUS ... and 2.5% .. the weekly average is going to hit well above 3,000 verse the current 1,180 or so.

Will anything react ? USA stocks near all time highs, Presidential handover in a place never seen in 240 years. Yes nothing even close.Pandemic and bugger me .... lets buy stocks.

Sigh.

Our market is if anything worse. Bank stocks leading the mirage with most putting on 33% in recent weeks.

For myself they did capital issues. then more dilution via subordinated debt that converts and is meant to pay a franked dividend.
I cant even with any confidence predict what eventually dividends will resume at longer term. It will of course not be say the 165 cents per share a few of the large ones were at. Lower rates puts a blowtorch upon margins and taking out about a 20 % dilution, would be fair to say 120 is about it. If I were to demand as I do 6% for the risk that we have say NAB at $22- its about 110% of fair value. Of course if interest rates were higher I would be demanding 7% or more to add to them. Some are far worse, some of the smaller banks .... ABA and so on at 120% of value. Bendigo .... similar.
Only time will tell with this.

Not sure the vaccine has any impact til late 2021. Why would one take an untested vaccine that is unlikely to last longer than 12 months in Australia where there is little or no infections ? Likely its life or effect is 6 months. I do understand the absolute need to do so in 3rd world nations like USA where it seems that 1% right now appear to have the virus. Not even a stretch with 160k per day .... 1.12 million with symptomatic covid 19. To get to 1% that's 3.35 million so a mere 2.2 million not showing symptoms, 50% not wearing masks and some states such as South Dakota with the worlds worst infection rates, the governor there ... some Q anon type Republican woman thinks its a gross injustice to close bars or wear masks.


2020 is getting stranger as things get worse in the USA. Being a meat an potatoes type of guy and investor, risk is going one way .... stocks are going the other.

Time will sadly tell. Not sure what they will be doing in 3 weeks in the USA as likely the daily death toll on single days tops the 9/11 death toll many many times. Sad and wish it was not so.

Hoping or expecting change is not possible with the leader of this fiasco tweeting I WON .... I WON when he lost, lost badly and by 6 million votes.
Sanity post his bout of Covid has left him. Not sure it was ever there.


Syphilis or COvid brain fog, or is it the steroids ?



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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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kahuna1
post Posted: Nov 13 2020, 11:06 AM
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Another day of denial ....

Meanwhile the markets stalled and possibly USA is taking notice of the complete shambles it is on many fronts from stimulus to gridlock in senate to covid19 let alone a clearly ill president.
Sad ...

TLS, yes saw the news, yawned ... and reduced on the open yesterday. Not 10 days ago they hated it and whilst had orders the whole way down managed not to get filled at 266 .... but 268 270 272 and so on .... so taking a lot of steam out of the position size and locking profits ... its how I go.
APA ... given issues around gas, its rally to $11- same thing and play the ranges buying close to $10- .

Others same game .

Whilst totally wrong to be so much cash, only the very confident likes say banks back above $21 for me even my token holds went out the window given this. Realistically right or wrong on the virus, its clear science wise that the vaccine is mid 2021 at best and its not quickly going to change much in relation to overseas travel and so on. China and its actions, yet another today, ignored by our market.

USA ... that 66 million voted this idiot in in 2016 and after 240,000 deaths half of them avoidable and impeachment ... 26 women who were assaulted or raped and a long list of corrupt things that USA had 73 million vote for this clown in 2020 say a lot.


All of it missing from market risks being priced right now. That USA is facing lock-downs or hospital collapse and 40% of the idiots think COVID is fake when a visit to a hospital ... any hospital in the USA and one can see their brave nurses and doctors imploding is a reality that Trumpism has bred.
Sadly, in coming weeks and months we have idiots, well practiced idiots arguing about gravity and science. NO it does not operate in their universe.


Its only going to top 500,000 dead by the time any serious rollout of a vaccine which, well .... does not inspire me when the CEO of Pfizer sold half his shares after the massive rally after the announcement. What a world. Not a question .... it is what it is. With 50 million refusing to wear masks, deny any risk its going to be a bloody cold winter in the USA.

have fun



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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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myshares
post Posted: Nov 12 2020, 10:43 PM
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In Reply To: myshares's post @ Nov 12 2020, 01:30 PM

K1

Interesting on Telstra... a bit in the future - but more to come perhaps

https://www.theage.com.au/business/companie...112-p56e3s.html




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myshares
post Posted: Nov 12 2020, 01:30 PM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Nov 12 2020, 09:52 AM

and thanks for the TLS pick - enjoying the ride on that one
and watching APA


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kahuna1
post Posted: Nov 12 2020, 09:52 AM
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In Reply To: myshares's post @ Nov 12 2020, 09:02 AM

Yep.
I try and be as impartial as one can, but this is ridiculous some of the results.
Of course, over time we will have a vaccine. The key issues are safety and how long it lasts.None of these are even brushed upon with current results. Reason why vaccines usually take years to develop and deploy.

My own biggest stumbling block in the current market euphoria on the vaccine side is the next 12 weeks of total scorched earth the USA is enduring and its getting worse. No action and we both agree about the lag on when you find you infected, then 11 days latter an outcome .... and in the USA with third world reporting another 10 days till it hits the death totals so we are sadly looking backwards to when USA 7 day average was 60,000 not 120,000 and sadly increasing.

Second and crucial one is an absurdity in itself. A vaccine that likely is only lasting 6 months possibly ..... and at best 12 months. This is NOT A VACCINE ... its a prophylactic to prevent infection short term. What use it has if any in an ultra low infection environment such as NZ or Australia is about zero. Yep maybe squash an outbreak if we could get 75% in an effected area rapidly dosed. Deployment for me also an issue. If it ones out initially in bits and spurts for very infected nations, by the time you have given one shot, you need another.

Accepting we now need a FLu shot and a Covid shot every year is a likely longer term view at things if one wished to travel outside Australia.

Strange times and my boring stocks and largest hold seemed to catch on fire ... TLS .... yipee ... and reducing we will go ....




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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.

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myshares
post Posted: Nov 12 2020, 09:02 AM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ Nov 12 2020, 06:02 AM

K1

I don't disagree at all

Trials are designed to
1) show efficacy
2) show results that are favourable measures for the drug companies

and very often 2) overrides 1) in design as it is easier to achieve and market.




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