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RARE EARTHS
nipper
post Posted: Dec 1 2020, 06:53 AM
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. double post



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Dec 1 2020, 06:53 AM
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But the task of getting next stage development (= funding) is what holds back confident investment in most of the candidates

https://stockhead-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org...-rare-earths%2F



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 29 2020, 10:18 AM
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Rare earths emerging as pick of the proxies for EV exposure

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/rare-earths-emerging-as-pick-of-the-proxies-for-ev-exposure
QUOTE
.... the interest here is how the value surge for Tesla is being taken as an endorsement of the EV/renewables revolution in a world increasingly moving towards decarbonisation and what that means for the materials needed to make it happen.

Materials for the lithium ion batteries that underpin the revolution (lithium, nickel, graphite, zinc and others) have not exactly taken off just yet. But the share prices of ASX listed producers/explorers of the requited materials have been on the march since September, probably due to confirmation of a strong rebound in EV sales growth post the worst of COVID19 and now the Tesla S&P factor. The chemistry of the preferred Li ion batteries will change over time. So there is some risk in the long-term around picking battery materials to play the EV/renewables thematic.

That is not the case with the rare earths that go into the permanent motors of EVs and windmills, and just about every other new world economy application. No matter the battery chemistry or who is building the EVs and windmills, the motors require the light rare earths of neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) to ensure their reliability.

Exposure to rare earths as a way to have exposure to the EV/renewable revolution was a theme UBS dived into during the week in a note on ASX listed Lynas (LYC), the second biggest rare earths producer outside of China", which has an 80% grip on the market. "Lynas is positively exposed to a step-change in demand from EVs as each EV contains about 1-2kg of NdPr, mostly in the motor, UBS said. (It has a $4.05 price target on Lynas compared with Thursday's market price $3.69 for a $3.3b market cap).


UBS reckons annual EV sales could grow from about two million now to 36 million by 2030. As a result, it forecasts that NdPr demand will triple from 30,000tpa to 90,000tpa by 2030. (But) we do not think the market has created sufficient incentives for supply growth to triple by 2030. We estimate that an incentive price for NdPr is $US$60/kg. Prices have been below this level for most of the past 9 years, averaging ~US$41/kg, UBS says.

It believes that NdPr prices will need to lift from $US50/kg now to a peak of US$100/kg by 2024 before reverting to $US60/kg in the long term. From that it can be taken that the rare earths space is in line for some price excitement in coming years on demand fundamentals alone.Then there is the strategic appeal of rare earths in a world increasingly worried about Chinese grip on the supply chain. The potential for supply shocks, and NdPr got to $US280/kg in 2011 when China pulled supplies from Japan over a territorial dispute, is ever present.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 9 2020, 06:19 PM
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http://mgl.io/69eT0

.
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Critical Minerals.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 28 2020, 12:48 PM
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thanks to Beaches at ASF:

https://smallcaps.com.au/china-sends-warnin...ff-rare-earths/




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 8 2020, 07:20 PM
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First one to build a processing plant wins a prize.


https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/10/chinas...we-should-care/




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 


nipper
post Posted: Oct 4 2020, 08:05 AM
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And another overview of Aussie rare earth companies. We're at a pivot; but money needed, in large amounts.

https://smallcaps.com.au/trump-declares-rar...stralia-supply/


I run a watchlist and have all of these apart from PEK on it. ..... But which will be the winner(s)?



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 16 2020, 09:27 PM
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https://stockhead-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org...-rare-upside%2F



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: denpal  
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 4 2020, 10:14 AM
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The European Union has issued a plan to cut its dependence on Chinese supplies of rare earths, lithium batteries and solar cell components, as it tries to build a green energy economy that is not largely made in Beijing. Brussels will bring industry, governments and NGOs into a "European Raw Materials Alliance", which will refashion the continent's supply chains for up to 30 critical products, including those used to make wind turbines, fuel cells, solar panels, magnets, drones and batteries for electric vehicles.

Lithium appears on the EU critical list for the first time, in a fillip for the clutch of Australian listed companies looking to mine and process it within Europe.

We cannot afford to rely entirely on third countries; for some rare earths, even just one country, said the EU Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton, as he launched the Action Plan on Critical Raw Materials on Thursday.By diversifying the supply from third countries and developing the EU's own capacity for extraction, processing, recycling, refining and separation of rare earths, we can become more resilient and sustainable.

Brussels will look to build sustainable and responsible strategic partnerships with resource rich countries, the Action Plan said, name checking Australia as one of its priorities.

The strategy isn't overtly aimed at China ... there are also dependencies on Turkey, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and South Africa, but the European Commission analysis shows that in most cases the Asian behemoth is the critical risk factor. The Action Plan's risk assessment notes major concerns about China's quasi monopolistic role in rare earths used to produce magnets for wind turbines, and its dominance of lithium battery production.

https://www.afr.com/world/europe/europe-bri...20200714-p55bqf



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Jul 12 2020, 02:48 PM
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another rare earths hopeful, this time IPO in late July 2020 (now looking at 31 July). As announced to the ASX on 20 May 2020, ASMís parent company Alkane has resolved to progress with the Demerger transaction to separately list ASM on the Australian Securities Exchange, subject to shareholder approval and ASX approval for listing.

Australian Strategic Materials Ltd (ASM) is progressing the Dubbo Project to become a key global supplier of specialty metals and rare earths. These are critical for advanced technologies in high-growth sectors, including electric vehicles, clean energy, healthcare and robotics.

https://asm-au.com/

Our world-class Dubbo Project is an alternative, sustainable and reliable source of premium-quality zirconium, rare earths, niobium and hafnium as oxides and metals. These critical materials that are essential to advanced technologies and only available in limited quantities are mainly supplied from China.



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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