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TRY, TROY RESOURCES LIMITED
Elliott
post Posted: Sep 7 2016, 06:09 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Sep 7 2016, 02:17 PM

Nice looking chart too. Hit retracement zone before reversing. Plus bullish divergence in place. A few of the goldies hitting support zones and reversing as well. SBM & RMS just 2 that come to mind.
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My posts are for discussion and educational value only. They are not to be construed as advice in any way.

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triage
post Posted: Sep 7 2016, 02:17 PM
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This junior goldie used to be a real standout: less than 100m issued shares, no or little debt, regular dividend payer, a history of building projects really cheaply and on budget and time. It's had some hard times since then however. They were very hopeful that their project in Argentina would develop into a long life high profit operation but the more their dug they found silver rather than gold, and they were being killed by low precious metal prices and a hyperinflating Argentinian currency.

In hindsight to extricate themselves from the developing disaster in Argentina they threw a hail mary by taking over a company with a potential project in Guyana but they did so by massively diluting existing shareholders (by buying the other company with scrip), then taking on a fair chunk of debt to build the plant and mines, and stuffing up their estimates of the reserves the project had. Then they had problems with commissioning with an unusually moist wet season and with some equipment failures.

Now they have gone for, yet another, cap raising, which if everything goes to plan should be enough to steady them in preparation for a sustained recovery. The operation has very low costs and they hope to produce about 90k oz a year but what they really need is to find enough resources to at least extend the life of mine (if not increase production rates). Of course like all goldies they would also benefit were the price of gold to strengthen.

In their latest presentation they talk as if they are open to take on new projects but realistically what they need for the time being is for their current operation to deliver for a prolonged period.



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

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cooderman
post Posted: May 25 2016, 09:26 AM
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TRY worth watching for an entry ... depending entirely on how far Gold and Silver price falls.
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surfer
post Posted: Aug 4 2014, 03:17 PM
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Bought a parcel of try this arvo. As long as they don't go any lower I think we may have seen the bottom for this stock

 
wren
post Posted: May 8 2014, 09:33 PM
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In Reply To: arty's post @ May 8 2014, 08:24 PM

Hi arty, I have Bollinger's book ("Bollinger's on Bollinger's Bands" or similar:moving house so all books packed away).The book is full of wisdom,and a new trader could do a lot worse than read a copy.Bollinger,unlike numerous self proclaimed gurus does not claim that 'his' Bands are a road to instant wealth.Have re-read the book a few times and always get something of value from it.Off topic,I know!

 
arty
post Posted: May 8 2014, 08:24 PM
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In Reply To: flower's post @ May 8 2014, 06:38 PM

Hi flower,

what you describe is John Bollinger's "Head Fake", of which I happen to have a script. Added to TRY's Daily chart, it creates a signal "F" (for "Fake") below each day when a BB narrowing is seen to expand.

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As to its reliability: During the past 12 months, it has "fired" correctly once: on August 2nd. It fired twice: in October and November, but the expected turn of trend failed to materialise. And the breakout in January failed to meet the Bollinger test altogether.
I would understand if you said that my program could simply have a bug in it and not work correctly; that's always a possibility.
However, I have tested it extensively and matched its results with Bollinger charts before I released it.
Leaves the caveat on the Bollinger website, which states
QUOTE
Typically what you'll see is a Squeeze, followed by a band tag, followed in turn by the real move. Most often this will occur within the bands and you won't get a breakout signal until after the real move is under way.
(see http://www.bollingeronbollingerbands.com/methods/?m=1 )
The biggest problem I have with Bollingerbands is the time it takes for a reaction to show: Calculating Sigma over 21 days makes anything based on it about 2 weeks late. Considering the speed at which stocks like TRY currently change tack, that is far too late and will more often than not lead to us trading the "Zig" when the chart's next "Zag" is already well underway.

Therefore, I have long been favoring a different indicator that measures direction of Average Daily Ranges. These envelopes can be tailored to a reaction time as short as one or two days, using historic trend behaviour as input to eliminate "noise", thereby avoiding whipsaws, i.e. premature entry and trailing stops. The chart below has been attuned to whipsaws in the sub-weekly range. At present, it would still hold a Short position, to be reversed (or allowing a Buy) once $1.07 is broken on a green day.

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It doesn't "assume" that the prevailing downtrend will be reversed any time soon; but when it happens, it will alert me to have another look and decide whether I want to buy again or pick another stock that suits me better.



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I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)
 


flower
post Posted: May 8 2014, 06:38 PM
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TRY, in common with other of the better ASX gold producers are forming a basing pattern (IMO), using the Bollinger bands by way of a demonstration, see how tight that band has become of late, usually such a formation is the precursor to a major move (in either direction) which fits in the same pattern the yellow metal is forming. The tighter the band becomes the bigger the next move usually becomes, eg TRY in January this year.
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Combining Fundamental comments with Fundamental charts.
 
arty
post Posted: May 7 2014, 09:20 AM
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In Reply To: arty's post @ Apr 29 2014, 09:57 AM

Anyone interested in the gold mining industry may find some useful information in Troy's recent Investor Presentation published today: http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displ...;idsId=01515595
No rosy opinion, just hard facts and charts like this:

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I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)

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arty
post Posted: Apr 29 2014, 09:57 AM
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Paul Benson resigns as MD after 7 years, to spend an extended break with his family.
A 3-month transition period could well see the sp close that gap down to 88.5c. The Market doesn't like uncertainty.
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--------------------
I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)
 
cooderman
post Posted: Mar 28 2014, 02:50 PM
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In Reply To: arty's post @ Mar 28 2014, 12:22 PM


just sold for 1.02.....small loss

didn't fancy holding over weekend....gold struggling still and finding it hard to break above 1294

hard to say where gold goes from here.

will be interesting to see where TRY closes today



 
 


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