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China the monster.
blacksheep
post Posted: Jul 23 2018, 11:09 PM
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An interesting read

China’s Global Building Spree Runs Into Trouble in Pakistan
QUOTE
To fund a 70-nation infrastructure initiative, Beijing has been extending loans in opaque deals often contingent on using Chinese contractors

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-global-...stan-1532280460



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Jul 20 2018, 02:29 AM
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QUOTE
The average total debt-to-common equity ratio at listed companies in China climbed to 99.5 percent at the end of 2017, the highest in more than a decade, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. That leverage is up against a shrinking financing universe: the shadow-banking sector contracted by 691.7 billion yuan in June, the biggest net monthly drop on record, according to Bloomberg calculations based on official data.

"Companies that were used to paying back old debt with newly borrowed money have little experience in dealing with a change of cycles, and they don't have other alternative plans," said Ivan Chung, head of greater China credit and analysis at Moody's Investors Service. "Borrowers' inability to get new financing makes it difficult to hide problems."
Bloomberg

..... one day, one day



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jul 19 2018, 02:13 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Jul 19 2018, 12:01 PM

The big question is, why have these people left?
Were they put into the persona non gratis category, or did they just have enough of china?

Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.

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triage
post Posted: Jul 19 2018, 12:01 PM
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Christopher Balding is leaving China and not writing articles anymore (he was a regular Bloomberg contributor and had his own blogsite).

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevo...ving-china.html

Anyone know of anyone else based in China writing China stuff? Michael Pettis has gone quiet, Christopher Balding is exiting and Ross Garnuat's lad is back in Oz and not very active. sad.gif



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

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blacksheep
post Posted: Jul 17 2018, 03:39 PM
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Rick Mills view - The road to war: China vs the US - Part 1
http://aheadoftheherd.com/Newsletter/2018/...a-vs-the-US.pdf



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
triage
post Posted: Jul 5 2018, 08:04 AM
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Here we go. It is exactly what you would expect from Mahathir Mohamad, who as a young bloke fought off the ethnic chinese communists and set up the bumiputra system and the modern state of Malaysia. I wondered why the Malaysians were allowing the Chinese to move in and now we see the fightback from the old bloke.

It looks like he can cut back Chinese influence under the guise of corruption and waste, as it seems that the contracts let to the Chinese companies to build infrastructure have allowed lots of money to go missing. Might be where the ex-PM got some of his designer handbags from. But Mahathir is also making it clear that he wants to realign more with Japan and less with China (he also reckons the TPP needs to be renegotiated).

If the Malaysians conclusively show that the One Belt One Road initiative has been a trojan horse for Chinese companies to act corruptly then it becomes a much lessened vehicle for China's international ambitions.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Malaysia-i...ucture-projects

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/malaysia-...705-p4zpjq.html



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

Said 'Thanks' for this post: mullokintyre  Pendragon  nipper  early birds  
 


early birds
post Posted: Jul 3 2018, 08:46 AM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Jul 1 2018, 08:40 AM

The list of negatives facing the $6.6 trillion stock market is growing. The economy is already showing signs of vulnerability to a U.S. trade war before new taxes are levied at the end of this week. Analysts and investors alike are struggling to keep up with the yuan’s descent, while there’s been little sign of heavy state intervention to stem the slump in either stocks or the currency. Concern is also growing over the health of the country’s massive property market

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/201...but-only-barely

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if chinese property market dives, then look out "gfc" No.2. and looks likely this time. also it will hit aussie property market really hard....



 
triage
post Posted: Jul 1 2018, 08:40 AM
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On the macrobusinees blogsite several commentators are pushing the view that there will some sort of successful popular uprising in China as a result of the looming trade war between China and the US. I just don't buy it: if it didn't happen in the taiping uprising where 20m people died, if it didn't happen in the 1930's when the Japanese invaded northern China, if it didn't happen in the late 50's early 60's when Mao starved about 40m peasants so as to buy influence and nukes from European states, then I'm not sure why it would happen now. China is just too big to fall apart over a single threat imo.
But there seems increasing evidence that it is having another financial moment, a bit like what happened in 2015. A financial crisis maybe, just not the end of communist rule (no Berlin War for China). Here is a blogpost from Tyler Cowen, basically a cut and paste from a couple of newspaper articles. Read the comments, some interesting views expressed.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevo...-pessimism.html




--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
triage
post Posted: Jun 16 2018, 09:36 AM
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I have not been following things China very closely of late. This is the first article I've come across suggesting that its economy is running a bit rough (as it says, things have looked to have been going well so far in 2018).

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/china-ec...6?r=US&IR=T

Not sure about the gist of the article though. Back in 2015 the first indication that the Chinese economy was hitting a period of turbulence was anecdotal tidbits, such as executives disappearing or killing themselves, violent outbursts from investors and workers about unpaid monies. I've not seen any of that sort of reporting this time around.

Perhaps what makes it interesting is the racheting up by Trump of the trade war. On the other side of that is that the US mid-term elections are 5 months away and in the short term I suspect China can cause significant grief to Trump.



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  
 
early birds
post Posted: May 25 2018, 09:27 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ May 23 2018, 11:59 AM

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy...523-p4zh1r.html

China was not only the main destination for Australia’s iron ore and coal but had become the largest destination for a range of food and service exports. Chinese tourists accounted for one quarter of all the tourist dollars spent in Australia, and Chinese students for one third of all education exports. Service exports to China exceeded those to the United States and Britain combined.

..............

He described the RBA’s relationship with the People’s Bank of China as “very strong” but would not comment at the political level.
“Like in all relationships, there are going to be ups and downs ... It's happened in our relationship with the US periodically as well.”

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if there is someone can solve this big debt problem it will be chinese govt.. for one reason------they are the tight controlled central govt. this debt problem been talked about for over 8 years by now.... and yet it still going.

my guess is they will solve this debt problem by pass it on to it's people.




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