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CGC, COSTA GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 3 2019, 10:37 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 27 2019, 12:22 PM

It's Costa v Costa in juicy berry and citrus dispute
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A dispute over rental income has pitted the country's largest fruit and vegetable grower, Costa Group, against its landlord, the Costa family's recently spun off berry and citrus farms owner, the Vitalharvest Freehold Trust.


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News of the dispute emerged as the trust reported a 31 per cent fall in funds from operations to $11.4 million on a pro-forma basis and a 20 per cent drop in rental revenue.

read more - https://www.afr.com/property/commercial/it-...20190902-p52n0r
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 27 2019, 12:22 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 23 2019, 12:27 PM

Updated chart . SP currently $2.98/share. Total short positions as at 20/8/19 = 7.67%. 2x notable short alerts in last 2 trading days

QUOTE
Mon 26th Aug, 2019 4,313,517 320,554,262 1.34% 11,707,671 36.84%
Fri 23rd Aug, 2019 5,548,568 320,554,262 1.73% 18,633,613 29.78%

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=CGC

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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 23 2019, 07:22 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 23 2019, 12:27 PM

QUOTE
first-half result marred by setbacks across its fruit and vegetable operations. The grower increased its revenue by 11.8 per cent to $573 million during the period but an adverse Moroccan blueberry season, low mushroom demand, poor raspberry quality, citrus water costs and fruit fly culminated in a difficult first half.
that's their entire product range, isn't it?
I noticed everything CGC offers was discounted at the local, today!


QUOTE
Costa’s statutory profit for the six months to June 30 edged 1.0 per cent higher to $41.1m but profit before factoring in self-generating and live assets fell by $7.2m, or 14 per cent, to $40.9m. Earnings before self-generating and live assets and leasing was 8.4 per cent lower at $82.4m.
"SG&L"; That's a new one. Too much drilling down.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 23 2019, 12:37 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 23 2019, 12:27 PM

Three strikes and out. Over-promise and under-deliver ....or just misread the market (and capital needs)?



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 23 2019, 12:27 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jun 1 2019, 12:49 PM

Updated chart following today's HY ended 30/6/19 - disappointed 3 quarters in a row

Shorts are winners on this one again today - SP down currently 13.98% @ $3.26. The Costa family selldown earlier this year was certainly at good move - $6.55/share

Short positions as at 16/8/19 = 8.02%
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=cgc
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Jun 1 2019, 12:49 PM
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QUOTE
The company’s annual meeting was told yesterday that Costa is now looking at 2019 net profit after tax of $57 million to $66 million. That’s down from an expected $73.6 million after a season of bad quality fruit, low prices and even a fruit fly in the company’s citrus orchards in the Riverina area of NSW.

Instead of a rise of around 30%, earnings for the year will be up between 0.7% at worst and 16% at best.

Costa had projected that 30% jump in profits in February, hoping for an end to the volatile growing season for berries, avocados, and tomatoes which had earlier seen the company to downgrade its profits on January 10 (the company is changing its financial year to match a calendar year and the local growing seasons). That downgrade saw the shares plunge sharply from $7.30 to $4.51.

The confidence in the upgrade in the February interim earnings statement saw the shares recover but yesterday’s downgrade saw them plunge another 27% to $3.75, a two year low.

The reason ; lower yields and higher costs from its mushrooms, blueberry, raspberry crops, and citrus crops.

As well an oversupply of tomatoes dropped the forecast price for that crop, but chief executive officer Mr. Harry Debney said in a speech on Thursday to the annual meeting that “market conditions are now back to normal.”
- getting to happen too often. I thought diversifying crops, locations, etc would buffer the impact, but clearly not . (don't hold)



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 


blacksheep
post Posted: Apr 9 2019, 08:57 PM
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If you believe in broker analysis.......confidence in CGC is back
QUOTE
Confidence in Costa Group ((CGC)) has been reinvigorated following visits by brokers to the company's Chinese berry farms and its associate, Driscoll's, for packing, logistics and marketing.

Both Credit Suisse and UBS believe they have probably been too conservative in their estimations regarding the rolling out of the berry plantations in China. Costa Group is on track to achieve its five-year plan of 240 hectares of berry plantings by 2020.

Credit Suisse expects the company will be able to enhance its yields and pricing through genetics and management, estimating that after completing the planting in 2020, the joint venture will carry about $100m of funds employed and it is reasonable to expect a 20% earnings (EBIT) return on assets in China.

read more - https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/2019/04/0...ted-by-berries/

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Macquarie rates CGC as Outperform

Macquarie believes the company is well-positioned for growth and on track to achieve its targets for five-year berry plantings of 240ha in China by 2020. The international business is a driver of the company's target for net profit growth of 30% or more in 2019.

China forms part of the company's international division, along with Morocco, and represented 17% of 2018 operating earnings.

Macquarie notes jumbo berries are priced at 60-80% premium regardless of the season. There is also market scarcity and Costa Group has a logistical advantage, taking just two days to market from harvest.

Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating and reduces the target to $6.22 from $6.27.


Total short positions as at 3/4/2019 = 4.64%
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=cgc
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 14 2019, 09:16 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jan 12 2019, 10:35 AM

Another notable short alert reported Friday although SP finished the day up 4.53%. @ $4.85/share - rise could be short lived IMHO
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=CGC
QUOTE
Fri 11th Jan, 2019 5,982,435 319,937,318 1.87% 16,599,739 36.04%




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 12 2019, 10:35 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Nov 21 2017, 06:19 PM

QUOTE
A hedge fund manager who is short Costa and declined to be named said this downgrade was foreshadowed.

"The structure of Costa's relationship with its major landlord VitalHarvest, who earns most of its income from a revenue-sharing agreement with its tenant, and the Costa family's decision to sell out of their exposure to this entity via the VitalHarvest IPO last year, foreshadowed what insiders thought about the true prospects for the 2019 year," the hedge fund manager said

https://www.afr.com/business/agriculture/cr...20190110-h19woa

Short positions as at 7/1/2019 = 3.18% - about to go higher in coming days by looks of things
Notable short alert for Thursday 10/1/2019

QUOTE
Thu 10th Jan, 2019 4,294,315 319,937,318 1.34% 16,404,785 26.18%


https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=cgc
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Apparently for Macquarie the market update came as an "unwelcome surprise" - while for shorters the downgrade was "forshadowed"
QUOTE
CGC – Macquarie rates the stock as Outperform
By Broker News | More Articles by Broker News

Post profit warning, Macquarie analysts stick with the view this company remains solidly positioned with (still) a solid track record, though the latest market update must have come as an unwelcome surprise.

Macquarie was previously of the view everything was looking swell and solid from an operational point of view. Its own forecast was for double digit percentage growth, well above company guidance and certainly well above yesterday’s update for a flat outlook for the present year.

Apparently, demand for tomatoes, berries and avocados during December 2018 disappointed, while January too is growing below expectations. Estimates culled by -8-15%. Target price drops to $5.55 from $7.60.




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 10 2019, 05:23 PM
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QUOTE
In a note to the market, Costa said subdued demand for tomatoes, berries and avocados had hit sales. That exacerbated previously flagged delays in its mushroom development and costs of its Moroccan joint venture.

Costa said trading conditions for January appeared to be slower than planned and that patchy demand had caused it to cut prices for a number of its product lines alongside an early finish to its citrus “off season”.

“If current trading conditions continue, this, together with short term slippage of the commissioning of the Monarto mushroom facility upgrade in South Australia and the previously announced additional costs from investments such as African Blue, is expected to result in largely flat growth for the twelve month NPAT-S to the end of June 2019 compared to the prior year,” it said.

Looking to next year, it said the factors were only cyclical and that forecasts for the 2019 calendar year were in line with previous guidance.
.... down by 40% at one stage, today. (something's always on Special at the local supermarket)



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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