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Posted on: Jul 6 2020, 11:56 PM


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Bugger it, I'm bored so I'll write some stuff.

In October 2018 a small outfit called Spectrum which was run by a couple of stock trading executives bought an old mine pit a couple of hundred clicks south east of Mt Magnet, WA. The site is called Penny West and is less than 900 hectares in area. The two blocks they bought had a JORC of less than 10k ounces at 5g/t and they paid all up $1m which consisted of $50k cash and the rest in scrip in Spectrum. Within 6 months a drilling campaign turned up good hits of high grade ore and within 18 months they had sold the company and the two blocks to Ramelius (RMS) for about $220m (some cash but mostly scrip). They had hit the jackpot.

About 30 clicks to the north of Penny West another financial suit had managed to get his company, Rox (RXL), into a 50:50 jv with the dominant tenement holder in the district, Venus (VMC), for much of those tenements, including another old pit called Youinme. Youinme actually used to have a processing plant right next to it but the plant had been mothballed years ago. Youinme already had over 1m ounces of JORC resources but about half of that was in refractory ore that would need specialist processing. The jv needed to uncover more gold if they were to re-establish the area as a working mine. But when they started drilling next to the old pit heading in a line from the airstrip towards the plant site, an area they refer to as the Grace Prospect, they not only found reasonable amounts of high grade near-surface gold but they also stumbled across high grade gold in a type of granite at fairly deep levels (the old operators had not drilled deep and had not thought to drill into the granite). The jv has another batch of drilling results due out anytime now and the expectation from the frenzied mob at hc is that these will also show bonanza levels of gold. We'll see. Rox acted quickly to take up an extra 20% in the Youinme jv for not much at all. It was a win for Rox and left a feeling amongst Venus holders that they had been done over.

Between Youinme and Penny West and also to the south of Penny West much of the blocks are held either by Venus outright or by Venus Rox 50:50 jv's and running north to south between Youinme and Penny West (and extending north of Youinme and south of Penny West) is the Youinme shear zone. People have joined the dots: if there is lots of high grade ore in the shear zone at Youinme and there is lots of high grade ore in the shear zone at Penny West maybe there are other high grade deposits to be found along that shear zone. That's what is being extrapolated but the current reality is that in that district there are two isolated high grade deposits (remember this: this bit is fact, the rest is speculation and dreaming).

One more thing, abutting the southern boundary of the Penny West blocks is another small block, called Penny South, currently owned outright by a tiddler called Aldoro (ARN). In the middle of last year there appears to have been a reverse takeover of Aldoro as the listed company took over Penny South from a private company and also appointed two blokes from that private company as MD and Chairman of Aldoro. Both are geologists and Penny South is their major project.

Now, Ramelius has a market cap of about $1.7b and they currently intend to haul the ore from Penny West up to their processing plant at Mr Magnet. The boss of Rox has said he wants to build a modular processing plant at Youinme. Rox's mc is about $160m. The junior partner in the jv, Venus, has market cap is just north of $43m. And Aldoro, well Aldoro has a mc of just over $4m.


Now even though Aldoro only has maybe less than 3 km of the Youinme shear zone in its tenement with a mc of only $4m it would only take one good hole for it to shoot up (it does after all hold 100% of that tenement). On the other hand Venus with all its coverage in the district only owns 50% of most of the tenements and only 30% of the Youinme project, including the brilliantly performing Grace prospect. It and Rox have a tenement to the immediate south of the Aldoro tenement at Penny South which is called Penny West Deep South. The mc of Venus is around $43m. If the jv continues to have major success at the Grace prospect or were to hit high grade deposits at Penny West Deep South you would expect the VMC shareprice to shoot up but not, in percentage terms, like ARN could with similar success. Of course Venus has other prospects in that district so if it turns out there are a number of high grade deposits Venus could have multiple winners.

And the senior partner in the Youinme project, Rox, has a market cap of about $170m. If the difference in market cap between Rox, at about $170m, and Venus, at about $43m, was entirely due to the 70:30 split at Youinme then if Venus had a mc of $43m then Rox would have a mc of only $100m. Seeing how the rest of their jv's are a 50:50 split I reckon that suggests that Venus is more competitively priced than Rox at the moment. But even if it does hit additional high grade deposits it will have to share those successes with Rox.

Anyway I'm not sure what I am saying is the better value here. Aldoro, with very limited amount of the shear zone has much less chance of hitting a high grade deposit but if it did then remember that Ramelius paid $220m for the nextdoor tenements. With Venus you have far more chances that they will find one or two high grade deposits but at best Venus will only hold 50% of that success. So, lower risk but likely lower return. If Rox were to have further success then sure it is more likely to go all the way in becoming a producer but my guess is that people are paying a premium for Rox over Venus (possibly partly explained by the suit that is the Rox MD having a hc fan club that seems to think he can walk on water).

And sitting in the background is Ramelius which could swallow any or all of the other players if it so desired. At the moment they seem happy to have acquired Penny West so as to have high grade ore they can haul up to Mt Magnet and mix with lower grade stuff from much closer to the mill. But if there were signs of multiple high grade deposits being proven up in that area they may decide to step in and take over the entire district and build an additional processing plant in the district. I am not looking to buy any more RMS but as a holder I think that could be a very positive move for them. It would push them well over the 300k oz pa figure they have been striving to reach, it would give them an additional mill churning out very high grade very low cost gold, and with a proven life of mine easily the equal of the 6 year life of mine they have with their existing mills.

Anyway, this may all come to nothing. But one way or the other, we should know by Christmas.
  Forum: Macro Factors

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Posted on: Jul 6 2020, 10:37 PM


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Sounds like she should have changed her last name to Adventure.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: Jul 6 2020, 07:32 PM


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Trumpy would probably want to date them too, Mr B.
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Posted on: Jul 1 2020, 10:20 PM


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There's one or two to be found on Capital Hill as well. rolleyes.gif

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qg_KQYwKgpE

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: Jul 1 2020, 10:14 PM


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Thanks for that nip. For a lark I've lurked on tiktok a couple of times. Some of the stuff there is quite clever but it really is tabloid standard. Reddit, similar, not a lot of thought or preparation goes into much of the stuff I've seen.

I was convinced to sign up for linkedin recently, so as to read the comments on something that had been posted. Plenty of "yes I agree 100% because it is a really good idea". In other words no value adding from the comments section (though that is true for most comments sections, including for mainstream media sites). I'm not signed up for twitter but I regularly see solid analysis / commentary about economics and current affairs there though I'm not sure if there is much stock or investment banter (?).

I still like the stock forums like hc and ss / sc for the genuine intel that is made available from time to time. For ss / sc to blossom it needs a few flashy leaders to complement the solid analysts. It used to be that Kahuna would get dozens of likes for pretty much every post and the likes of King Baz was very showy and would evoke lots of responses and chatter.

HC has developed into a monster: I think they claim 600,000 unique visitors a month, and from time to time there can be extremely solid investment analysis available there, and the fact that they carry near-real time pricing info is handy. Still lots of empty comments there of course but nothing like the wild west it used to be.

I reckon if the stock market double dips then a lot of these "investors" who are using the 10k they pulled from their super will be taught a savage lesson. The ones that survive the hit will realise that stock investing is a tough gig, and sometimes they can benefit from forums like hc and ss/sc.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: Jul 1 2020, 09:45 PM


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That's no good, Mick. Have you tried dynamite?
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Posted on: Jun 19 2020, 07:04 PM


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Mick - in that case you should head straight to Menindee - apparently they've got so many fish in the lakes around there you can just reach down and scoop them out of the water. rolleyes.gif

Anyway, have fun and travel safely.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: Jun 13 2020, 04:42 PM


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nip - darkest before the dawn. In the coming months stories of punters making a killing from junior goldies will have many of those newbies flooding into stock forums like hc with some overspill onto here. When hc really was the wild west back in 2006 or so there was so much chatter there about some stocks that it was impossible to keep up, so quieter places like the old sharescene did well as well.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: Jun 10 2020, 08:33 PM


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Hi Mick - another sterling set of results for Eridanus today, and they sounded quite positive about Penny West as well (remembering that they downgraded what they had at Tampia soon after that acquisition was settled). The next announcement we should get from them will be about the life of mine, which hopefully will be another positive statement. That is due before the end of June and then onto what should be a cracking quarterly production announcement in early July.
  Forum: By Share Code

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Posted on: Jun 4 2020, 07:07 PM


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In the main, that's not actually Trumpy's decision, eb. The yanks, like us, are a federation, and a lot of the power remains vested in the states, not the feds. An example here is where the WA and Qld governments closed their borders. The other premiers and Scotty from Marketing could jump up and down as much as they liked, but it was not their call.

Having said that, Trumpy is very good at pretending he has power when he does not, and equally at pretending to have no power when in fact he does.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: May 28 2020, 09:27 PM


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Yeah dunno the reason Mick. I reckon for a long time arty was the heart of this forum. In real life he must have been such a lovely bloke. Not only was he very prolific with his in-depth and knowledgeable posting, he also set the relatively gentle tone of the place. He was even flower's closest mate here and flower used to walk around picking fights with everyone.


The other factor I think is general fatigue. Nothing much has changed in the last decade. I would have thought the drought and the bushfires and the virus and the shut-down would have caused an upheaval but that doesn't seem to have happened. I remember back leading up to the GFC, the first sign of trouble was when HSBC closed some US funds in late 2006 maybe early 2007. Nothing happened for maybe six months but then the cracks started appearing, all hell broke loose and by March 2009 it was all over and the recovery had begun. This time around we have had nose-bleed debt levels for years, we've had Trumpy running amok for almost 4 years (whether in a good or bad way is irrelevant, but there is no doubt he has been attempting to upset the applecart), we've had China become increasingly assertive and still the status quo continues on. I know that you are attempting to change things up with your gold plays but I reckon most people have worked out a long while back how they want to sit things out until the change finally comes.

Kudos to you and nip and eb and a few others who are putting in the effort. If I thought I had anything of interest to add I would. But the fact is I don't.

PS Also, hc is great when you get a real expert or two regularly contributing about a stock. I was lucky there was one of them on Orocobre for several years although he has gone quiet of late. But for the most part there's an inverse relationship between the number of hc posts about a stock and how fundamentally solid the company behind the stock is. Almost all of the chatter is hot air.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: May 23 2020, 09:18 AM


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EB - no, not a cornered animal. My own view is that it was always China's intention to erode away HK's independence over time. Just as it has always been the CCP's intention to finally defeat the KMT and take over the island of Taiwan. Mao wanted to finish the job in the late 40's but Stalin wouldn't let him so it has been a burr in their saddle cloth for over 70 years.

I've just finished off a book by an ex-senior US military bloke, who spent time as a defence attache in Beijing and then on their National Security Council. He is firmly of the opinion that the Chinese believe that the military option is not the way to go so have engaged in what he calls a total war, where they use diplomacy, trade, culture, IT, and other things to gain all the things they want. A simple example is that Margaret Thatcher agreed to hand HK back when it was pointed out to her that if China cut of the electricity and water it was providing to HK the colony would collapse in a matter of days. They might send in the troops to kill off the last of the resistance in HK in coming months or years but that battle was effectively fought and won decades ago with no need for violence.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: May 20 2020, 09:46 PM


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Keep posting eb when you're up for it. I don't spend as much time around here as I used to but whenever I do drop by I'm always happy to see a new eb post. I really appreciate your take on events.

Hang in there, mate.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: May 19 2020, 05:00 PM


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"The elites may find themselves out of a job."
Doesn't work that way, Mick. The elites always land on their feet. The elite will still be elite, it is just that they will have moved to better locations. wink.gif
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Posted on: May 15 2020, 06:31 PM


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Ramelius is a different beast to Dacian and Gascoyne though Mick. One of the first things they did when they wrapped up the acquisition of Explorium was to downgrade all the reserve figures for Tampia. They did the same at Edna May, in taking the far more conservative view of going underground rather than going big on the open pit. They've hedged themselves very conservatively. Everything about Mark Zeptner and his team is about under promising and over delivering.

I suspect they have a company maker in Eridanus - it has the makings of being a mainstay at Mr Magnet for a number of years to come. Add on top of that what appears to be several hundred thousand ounces of very high grade ore from Penny West and a steadily performing Edna May then Ramelius stands a good chance of being a solid performer for some time to come. If the analysts can do their cash flow projections out 5, 6, 7 years then I think the RMS share price will be very well supported. I have no idea about the gold price but with any luck that might also help out.
  Forum: By Share Code

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Posted on: May 15 2020, 01:30 PM


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I read on hc that it is now at an 8 year high. Woohoo!


But Silver Lake is also up by about the same degree so the rise is beta not alpha. Talk of RMS being a chance of joining the ASX200 next month and of course they have their life of mine report due out in June, so everyone is in the mood to think that they are really savvy investors (when it goes down it's bad luck but when it goes up it's brilliance).
  Forum: By Share Code

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Posted on: May 13 2020, 09:21 PM


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J
The proposal is that the Queensland Investment Corporation, not the public servants, will make the bid, and that they are only attempting to take a stake in a consortium that is bidding for the hulk of what was Virgin. As long as they don't attempt to bail out the creditors, who took a punt and lost, I don't necessarily see an issue with this. I think the argument that we need to national airlines is probably right and the second airline may as well remain based in Brisbane.

At this point in time the COVID crisis does not seem to have done too much economic damage - Virgin being the only major casualty so far - but let's wait until we go over the liquidity cliff in a couple of months. It is quite possible that if this deal goes through Virgin will be but the first of a number of entities being nationalised, wholly or partially.
  Forum: By Share Code

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Posted on: May 3 2020, 11:26 PM


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... and yet the stock market is firing, real estate prices in Sydney and Melbourne have gone up in recent weeks, the AUD has totally recovered. All those things that are supposed to be leading indicators are indicating that the very low interest rates and the billions of additional liquidity have beene enough to pull us back from the cliff.

Could we have been lucky again, and dodged yet another bullet? I don't think so but I've been so wrong so many times now.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Apr 29 2020, 11:24 PM


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Mick - they made it way too complicated and delayed starting to make payments for too long, all so they could not be accused of a cash splash (which of course they got up Rudd about). The metrics I've seen suggest that enormous damage is being done to the economy, just in the few weeks between when the shut-down kicked in and when the cash will begin to flow (they estimate that by the end of May about $40b will flood in to the bank accounts of workers).

What they should have done, imo, is started paying everyone something like a universal basic income as soon as possible using bank account details already held by ATO and Service Australia. Large swathes of the economy is hitting a cash flow wall right now. Not sure how the employers are supposed to make payments to workers when they have no cash coming in. Not sure how the employees are supposed to pay the bills when they have no cash coming in. Banks wont lend money, not at reasonable rates anyway, as they know what is coming towards them (I listened to a webinar from the economist at HSBC and he thought one of the biggest risks in all of this was the housing market and that our big banks are wildly overexposed to housing loans).
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: Apr 27 2020, 11:04 AM


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Thanks k1. It seems to me that unless there is some natural limiter on the virus's spread the US will face a series of rolling outbreaks as carriers from one area that has not controlled the spread re-introduces the virus to another area that has relaxed its restrictions. Here in Australia, besides being a smaller simpler unit than the US we have the advantage of all states and territories working in unison with the Feds but in the US disunity will be death.

I am interested in your take of the oil crash and the interplay between Russia the Saudis and the US. I have read one argument that even if many / most US oil shalers go broke then someone else will buy the assets for a really low price and the US will become able to be competitive even with oil staying supercheap. The other argument is that the price crash is doing untold irrepairable damage to a number of US economies, particularly Texas, and that the debt defaults will cascade through the US financial markets.

TIA
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Apr 24 2020, 07:14 PM


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edit: sorry did not get past plastic's post so only now realised Trumpy's bleach moment has already been discussed. Sad.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: Apr 22 2020, 10:28 PM


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FWIW, there is an article on the AP news page with some speculation about the younger sister being the heir apparent / presumptive. Meh, South Korea might be on the money, maybe he has simply gone into self-isolation waiting for his countrymen to build up some herd immunity (?).

Sorry but the link does not seem to work but you can goggle "NKorea silence on Kim's health raises succession speculation" to find any number of newspapers carrying the AP article.
  Forum: Macro Factors

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Posted on: Apr 21 2020, 06:37 PM


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I wondered why his sister had started making appearances all of a sudden. The talk is that he has ticker problems. He has only one daughter and she is seven but he does have an older brother and two sisters. Would the dynasty be able to continue?

Talk about the virus being THE black swan event ... I reckon the sudden disintegration of the North Korean state might even top that.
  Forum: Macro Factors

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Posted on: Apr 20 2020, 08:37 PM


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And yet some are expressing the view that it will be quite simple for one or two of the regionals to quickly expand and fill the void. weirdsmiley.gif Yeah ... probably not.

I read that China Southern has been blocked from taking over even though it is already a shareholder. So what are the options?

Qantas can pretty much kiss its international division goodbye for the next year or so, and I'm not sure how quickly the domestic scene will recover. So whilst they will be a near-monopoly on the Sydney - Melbourne and Sydney - Brisbane runs I think they will eventually bleed out.

I'd go for a reversion to a duopoly of one state-owned and one private carrier, in a heavily regulated market. The government may even need to take an equity interest in Qantas until they find their feet a bit more.


Also, they may have to bail out the airports sooner or later. And what about the rental car companies, the hotel chains, travel agencies ... ? It is not just a single company collapsing, it is a whole sector of the economy.

Know of any listed bus companies? (though who wants to sit on a crowded bus for 10 or 20 hours in the time of the virus).
  Forum: By Share Code

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Posted on: Apr 19 2020, 02:10 PM


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+1 - yes, in hindsight, (but after all he was the leader who said before the last election he would do "anything" to win).
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: Apr 17 2020, 12:59 PM


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You could be right though the fact he hasn't even bothered to nominate people for about two thirds of those positions suggests that's just a ruse. They, led ingloriously by Mitch McConnell, have allowed Trumpy to crash through so many barriers and conventions who knows what will be a bridge too far. But yeah, hopefully putting off the November elections would not be a goer.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: Apr 17 2020, 07:52 AM


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"There must be a reason why he is so combative with the media. It could be just good for the polls or maybe there is something else going on."

Probably doesn't help that he's got the emotional intelligence of a pre-schooler.

But anyway that's Trumpy, the yanks have made him a central character and it is what it is. I see he's now talking of suspending both houses of congress so that he can make more unilateral decisions. When I first saw articles suggesting that he may even try to put off the November elections and continue on in power I thought the idea was a stretch but maybe not.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: Apr 16 2020, 06:35 PM


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He's leading with his chin by saying the US will be the come-back kids and that some states will re-open this month. I have not much understanding of epidemiology but I hear plenty who do talk with some trepidation about a possible second wave (apparently it was the second wave of the spanish flu that killed so many millions).

Anyway Trumpy is not my worry but I do agree with you that some of our premiers have stood up well in this crisis. This disaster has shown the true value of having a federal system, where the various states could go their own way but still work with each other and learn from each other.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: Apr 14 2020, 08:06 PM


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David Llewellyn-Smith, one of the main writers at Macrobusiness, today called that gold will go to A$10,000. His bio says he used to be a gold trader but that seems to be a heroic call for me (I would be more than happy if that transpired but...). I'm not sure his prediction carries any more weight than the thousands of others who claim to have the measure of what will and wont do.But I just thought I'd post a marker:


14 April 2020, David Llewellyn-Smith, A$10k per oz.



  Forum: Macro Factors

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Posted on: Apr 14 2020, 05:10 PM


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You're a good man, Mick. Pretty much no-one on these forums admits to a loss and then take it on the chin. They either always get in at the bottom and get out at the top or they squeal like stuck pigs about how unfair the world is.
  Forum: By Share Code

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Posted on: Apr 12 2020, 10:48 PM


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So you're saying you would rather be in lockdown in say New York or Lombardy because at least they have lots of people carking from the virus?

You do realise that NZ is probably the closest country to coming out the other side virus free, right? If you get to that point and you keep your borders secured then the restrictions will disappear soon enough (I guess). Here in Oz, we seem to be going ok too but our problem is that we still have thousands of citizens that are overseas and want to come back and also our testing was not designed to pick up community spread.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: Apr 9 2020, 04:58 PM


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A silver ling nip is the number of mums and dads out riding bikes or walking with their kids. Canberra suburbs normally look like a neutron bomb has gone off - lack of front fencing means no-one uses their front yards other than to park cars - but these days where I live actually looks like a traditional community. (when and where I grew up front yards were for the daily neighbourhood cricket games).

Though the flip side might be that cabin fever is causing problems in some households.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: Apr 8 2020, 01:00 PM


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Commiserations Mick. It will be my assignment over the break but it sounds at first like the lenders have called the loans in (?). If all the raised funds go straight back out to the banks then it means the bankers have got their money whilst leaving the carcass for the shareholders.
  Forum: By Share Code

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Posted on: Apr 6 2020, 07:22 PM


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Good luck with that, doesn't look good (and I've seen my unfair share of wounded gold companies).
  Forum: By Share Code

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Posted on: Apr 4 2020, 09:53 PM


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Good rant eb. Yeah I've got early symptoms of cabin fever too. Notice I'm getting a tad toey. We may have another 3 months of this to go. weirdsmiley.gif
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: Apr 4 2020, 09:59 AM


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I think he last dropped by to pay his respects to arty.

And no, I suspect flower thrived on the argy bargy. Often he would quite willfully incite it and prolong it. I worked in a warehouse with another pommy bloke with much the same feisty attitude as flower, to the extent that even the interstate truckies would not go into the smoko room so as to avoid confrontations with him. Arty was pretty much the only ss poster that flower deferred to.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: Apr 3 2020, 10:57 PM


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Mick

Here's more on the scuttlebutt about Scomo and the Ruby Princess. The claim seems to be that the in-laws of Alex Hawke plus some people from his church were on board the Ruby Princess and the ship was allowed to berth so that they could get off. Here is a blog piece which raises a number of allegations. Note that Samantha Maiden, who is a professional journalist, says that she found nothing to verify the claims made: "The fact it was allowed to dock is bizarre but Hawke rumour is a twitter fantasy". I guess Maiden was able to check the ship's manifest to confirm that none of Hawke's inlaws were there. In any case as it stands now it does indeed seem to be "twitter fantasy".

https://medium.com/@Elle_Black/hillsong-get...ee-49dbf11112d0

And here is more hyperventilating from a twitter thread.

https://twitter.com/harbourside6/status/1245821857745367040

Another reason why I dont have a twitter account...
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: Apr 2 2020, 05:18 PM


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Mick

The twitter thread I read was from a poster called Ronni Salt who actually seemed to do fairly decent research about some of the stuff that came out about Angus Taylor. The poster seems to show at least reasonable amount of rigor in looking for evidence or at least analysis. In that thread there were names named - I can't recall which polly it was, I don't follow local politics much these days, but apparently it was one of Scomo's close backers. But I can't seem to find the link I used last time sorry. I'll have another crack later on.

Here is another twitter thread I found, but most of it is fifth hand gossip mongering. As I say, the actual allegation looks a long bow for now but it just seems a total stuff-up to have allowed so many infected people into Australia from a vessel known to have COVID-19 on it (apparently 400 cases so far off the Ruby Princess and when the ship berthed in Sydney they medi-vacced a passenger off who soon after died).

https://mobile.twitter.com/EddyJokovich/sta...003740156837888
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: Apr 2 2020, 12:36 PM


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EB - there is scuttlebutt doing the rounds that it was actually Scott Morrison or someone closely linked to him that gave the all-clear for the Ruby Princess passengers simply to scatter. The story goes that one of his close cabinet allies had some family members on that cruise and the polly wanted to get the family members out of harm's way as quickly as possible. So the polly called in a debt that Scomo had. No doubt even if the PM addresses this rumour he will strenuously deny any involvement. But as we've seen with the bushfire holiday, the invitation to his pastor to the White House, and his two daughters being taken out of school, these days sooner or later the story gets out. Though in this case the story likely amounts to nothing.

But the fact that the Feds blamed NSW Health indicates to me that something smells. At any port the first and second lines of entry are manned by Commonwealth officials, not state officials. And the fact that Border Force has sent medical teams out to the numerous vessels waiting off the coast for permission to berth just shows that the border is the domain of the Feds not the states. My guess that any attempt to blame the Ruby Princess debacle entirely on NSW Health is a smoke-screen for something else.
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Posted on: Apr 1 2020, 07:39 PM


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Mick - If the Taiwanese miss the asymptomatic carriers but pick up all the people infected by the asymptomatic carriers they effectively neutralise that asymptomatic carrier. Catching 'em early is really important in exponential cases. 2 to the power of 3 is 8 but 8 to the power of 3 is 512. 8 infected people is managable but 512 is starting to become a problem. Even if one asymptomatic carrier infected someone else who also became an asymptomatic carrier we are not talking exponential rates but geometric rates. By testing everyone the Taiwanese reduced the risk of asymptomatic carriers to almost nothing
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Posted on: Mar 9 2020, 01:24 PM


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One thing I can't figure ...

Clearly it terms of brute strength elite female athletes cannot compete with elite male athletes, but in terms of technique, timing, hand/eye coordination, concentration etc I'm not aware that there should be any differences due to gender.

The brute strength aspect is covered by having shorter boundaries but it also manifests in female bowlers not being able to bowl at the same speeds as their male counterparts. There are a number of elite male bowlers who regularly bowl at above 140 k's but my impression is that the fastest female bowlers struggle to stay in the 120's. A male bowler regularly bowling in the 120's at the elite level is cannon fodder, unless he is very wiley (remember Peter Siddle being dropped when he dropped his speed and for a while lost his ability to move the ball).

So given that the top female elite batters have similar skills-sets to the male elite batters but are facing much slower bowlers how come the female Bradman or even Smith has not emerged?

(but yeah huge congratulations to the aussies, things looked very shaky as recently as half way through their second pool game.)
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Posted on: Mar 7 2020, 12:58 PM


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All that makes no sense to me. There are 1.4b Chinese and reported cases in the world are about 100k. That suggests that the wuflu is not very good at spreading but the one perfect test-tube we've had - the cruise ship off the coast of Japan - indicates that it will work its way through a significant proportion of a community.

Not sure why the virus appears to have stopped spreadly amongst those 1.4b people. I wonder whether there is a baseload of infected people in China and as soon as people start socialising again the spread of the virus will take off again. Either that or the Chinese authorities have fudged the figures to allow people to start working again (remembering that all those 700m Chinese who were in self-quarantine were pulling no wages and had no social security back-up).
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Posted on: Feb 25 2020, 08:32 PM


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Hey, I just noticed that according to this site's front page the highest number of people logged on here ever in any one day was over 7,000 on 23 January 2020....Really? I find that hard to believe. Most days this site is as busy as the main street in Wuhan.

If not for a few dedicated contributors this site would struggle to record any new posts some days. So where do all the lurkers go?


Is there a thread on ss showing live gambling / porn / sport / ??? I'm obviously missing something...
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Posted on: Feb 24 2020, 05:45 PM


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A good day at the office, and easily remembered stats: a rise of 14.6% to reach $1.46. Not sure why but if it holds then the takeover of Spectrum should be a breeze (from memory the offer opens on Friday ... does make the acquisition of Penny West even more overpriced imo.
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Posted on: Feb 19 2020, 06:47 PM


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Mick (if you are still talking to me wink.gif )

It often is the bankers rather than the geo's that ruminate for so long. Do you reckon it could be put up on the auction block?

I am not overly impressed by Ramelius bidding over $200m for a hope and prayer at Spectrum's Penny West (less than 400k oz of resources in narrow veins). I am toying with the notion that there is much better value for Ramelius in Dacian, albeit with serious problems needing to be sorted. But it does seem that Ramelius is all-in on using Penny West to cover for Vivien when it closes in a year or so, so it all is academic.
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Posted on: Feb 12 2020, 08:29 PM


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The SLR share price has gone gangbusters since they bedded down the EGA deal. Left RMS for dust Hopefully if Ramelius get Spectrum with not too much drama RMS will go on a similar run (though I'm a bit worried that Ramelius might be paying top dollar for its add-ons whereas by all accounts Silver Lake got a bargain with Egan Street).
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Posted on: Feb 12 2020, 08:20 PM


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Ha, with a handle like "Mick" it's not surprising, but you're of the wrong generation to be a ranga (but too young to be a "blue"). [I had breakfast with a real orangutan once - did not live up to my expectations].

Here's the article about Warner getting a lift.

https://au.yahoo.com/sports/allan-border-me...-212314707.html

(it's yahoo so it is tabloid rubbish).

Also Matt Renshaw has been dropped from the Qld Shield side - that's a shame, I wish him well.
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Posted on: Feb 12 2020, 04:42 PM


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I'm not too fussed by Warner getting caught cheating: he done the crime and done the time. But mate I remember Warner being totally out of his league against the poms. It's a bit like a triathlete who can't swim, who cares that he can cycle and run. I also remember a run of performances by lone-hand Smith the likes of which has not been seen since the don got a duck, and Pat Cummins has been THE outstanding bowler / allrounder in world cricket.
Anyway Warner is still a short-@rsed ranga no matter how much The Australian doctors his photos (so there tongue.gif )
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Posted on: Feb 11 2020, 10:41 PM


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Warner, Smith, Cummins, Lambshanks ....
MMarsh, Stoinis ....
You have got to be kidding ....
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Posted on: Jan 13 2020, 07:37 PM


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Amazed Jim has not shuffled off yet. Yes, a legend, made a fortune from memory working with George Soros when Soros took someone else's advice and broke the Bank of England, retired in his early mid thirties, travelled around the world, wrote some very readable investment books, as an old man moved to Singapore so his young daughter could grow up speaking mandarin. My impression is that he has been very early with pretty much all of his predictions in the last decade or so. But we live in an age devoid of consequences so predicting that there will be consequences has been a mug's game.
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Posted on: Jan 4 2020, 07:50 PM


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The ACT has had an interesting time of it lately. There's been a heavy smoke cover for much of the last month or so, on Tuesday there was a break from the smoke, instead there was a dust storm whipped up by a blustery wind and high temperatures. Within a day the dust was replaced with the heaviest smoke blanket yet: good air is about 50 units, hazardous air is anything above 200 units, parts of Canberra were reporting more than 5,000 units. Today the smoke has largely gone, but an 80 year temperature record was broken by over a full degree, topping out at around 44 degrees (Canberra is in the Southern Highlands so misses some of the heat that the Riverina cops). Tonight it remains as hot as but the stillness has been replaced by that blustery wind again. This area has won the lottery in that there have been no fires in the region, as the whole place is tinder dry from the prolonged drought and with the heat and the winds a repeat of 2003 would have been on the cards.
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Posted on: Dec 15 2019, 04:56 PM


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No idea why we batted on through last evening and into today ... almost as if they were trying to get a fifth day of tv time. Also clearly bowling in the late session is a tremendous quite possibly match winning advantage. You could argue it is similar to winning the toss on a greeentop and bowling first but winning the toss is pure luck whereas sides will wifully manipulate play to ensure they are bowling with a relatively new ball for the evening session.
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Posted on: Dec 8 2019, 07:14 PM


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J - I heard one of the Cricket Australia bosses interviewed on ABC radio this morning and he was asked what did Channel 7 tell them was the best thing about this season's women's comp. No, it wasn't the overall improvement in the skills levels on show, nor the emergence of genuine high profile stars, nor the number of great contests on show etc etc. No, Channel 7 apparently reckons the accessability (spelling?) of the players was the highlight. Yes, the mindless drivel of Ms Harris - and she herself said this morning she was quite surprised that the tv company wanted her to continue babbling on - is what Channel 7 is looking to serve up rather than actual cricket.

And back to the cricket: a couple of missed chances in the field made it a comfortable win for the Heat. Congrats to all involved.
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Posted on: Dec 8 2019, 08:29 AM


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Go the heat. Some very ordinary fielding and bowling in the two semis yesterday but looking forward to today's contest (not keen on the stream of consciousness commentary from the bowler as she is in the process of bowling - not insight, just drivel - but of course you can rely on Channel 7 to lower the standards of anything they touch).
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Posted on: Dec 6 2019, 07:47 PM


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J - Willis was a real overachiever as he was a bit of a make-do by the poms seeing they had no one else who was an out and out fast bowler. In the end he was deservedly rewarded for his perseverance: he was a tough test cricketer. My memory was that he was always a yard short of being fast enough and for him to put in a decent bouncer he used to bowl outrageous no balls - it wasn't as if his foot was just missing the line, for some of his no balls he was half a stride over the line and it wasn't as if he bowled these howlers every so often, particularly as he aged.
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Posted on: Dec 2 2019, 06:25 PM


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I reckon this is a shite article from a bloke who specialises in shite articles.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-02/davi...6?section=sport

I suspect most everyone is of the view that Shane Warne was / is a selfish d!ckhead who you wouldn't trust a bit but that does not stop him being universally acknowledged as one of the greats. The fact that I may or may not rate David Warner as a bloke does not influence my opinion that he really is a flat-track bully. Given inferior opposition and benign conditions he can absolutely monster a game but to do what Steve Smith did in England is what separates the men from the boys.
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Posted on: Nov 30 2019, 09:33 AM


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I see on macrobusiness that David Warner commented that he wished he could bat against decent Pakistani bowlers like Waqar and Wasim, and someone pointed out that he's just had the chance to perform against a class bowler in Suart Broad and flopped. As much as I like seeing Aussie batters do well, and continue to like watching Lambshanks, all the signs are that the conditions and the opposition are such that this series is just not a contest. Good for Channel 7 though as they will get their full 5 days to run all their special /human interest segments.
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Posted on: Nov 6 2019, 01:58 PM


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Yeah but they would have bills to pay and most creditors likely would want the readies. The drillers have done well and the fact that have not totally cashed and taken the profits suggests they think there might be more to come / or maybe they are compulsive gamblers and are happy to go double or nothing.

(I'm not sure why I am so interested in Stavely seeing that I've not held any SVY for yonks. I suspect it is because it is such a shining example of the randomness of success).
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Posted on: Nov 5 2019, 06:37 PM


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Interesting interplay going on in the HC SVY threads. There's Blackie's mate, shimmer, who is a smooth as silk upramper and now there's high quality downramper, Henry Walton, has joined the fray. They are not going head to head and their styles are diametrically opposed: as I said shimmer is all smoothness and supreme confidence that the SVY shareprice is going to go off like a rocket in coming months whereas Henry Walton is all detail and analysis to back up his position that Stavely does not have a commercial find. I've not come across either of them before but Henry Walton has a remarkable 1,120 lightbulbs from only 683 posts (even the top analysts that I regularly watch on hc don't bat at more than 100%) so some must think he has substance. Apparently he's a day trader though.

HW's style reminds me a lot of our very own King Baz who for a time on sharescene really was king (and kahuna). From memory though, king baz blew his credibility with some bad calls and getting too full of himself. It must be over a decade ago that he strutted around sharescene and I've not seen anything of him since: I presumed he may have passed away. But maybe not.

As for Stavely the next few core samples will tell the story apparently.
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Posted on: Nov 5 2019, 07:01 AM


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Yes, this. Some of my family are involved in the racing industry and they say that the Melbourne Cup is about the hardest race to pick as pretty much every horse in it, and its a big field, have been primed for this one race and pretty much every trainer and jockey are striving to win. None are there for a training gallop. So, pretty shirts or funny names or favourite numbers are the way to go apparently (fairly much how I pick my share investments come to think of it...).
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Posted on: Nov 2 2019, 07:51 AM


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Good on Glenn Maxwell for looking after himself and having the guts to recognise he is crook and to do something about it. And good on Steve Waugh, a reputed hardman, for backing Maxwell up. I read somewhere that something like a quarter of young people have mental health issues. Not sure of the reasons - high expectations, social media, low life prospects, ?? dunno - but whatever the reason it can be very debilitating for the sufferer. To suggest to them when they are at their "weakest" that they need to harden up apparently is not always the best option.

To show just how distorted the times are, Cricket Australia actually agreed, for money of course, for a pay to view operator to have exclusive rights to international T20 games and yet we can watch local soccer, basketball, racing, motor sports, rugby, domestic womens cricket all on free to air. Cricket needs to learn the lessons that rugby went through: if you sell out to the pay to view operators and take your product off free to air you might be getting a few more dollars in the short term but you are damaging your product in the longer term.

I watched Meg Lanning smash her team to victory in a rain affected T20 game (late) last night. She was dead lucky as she should have been stumped by about 3 metres early in her innings but champions do what champions do.
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Posted on: Oct 30 2019, 04:05 PM


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"they offer nothing..."

I dunno, a bit of traffic on this site would be a change. If not for nip and blackie backed up by eb and Mick (with J and Mr B for cricket) it gets very quiet on SS / SC these days. Arty's contributions to this site were immense and his passing left a giant deficiency here imo. And of course flower was your typical angsty pom but he did manage to keep things lively.

I used to check in with topstocks a number of years back but never came across the consistent quality of analysis and commentary as provided here by Arty and Kahuna and several others.


Anyway, let these topstocks trolls just try stuffing up SS / SC .... they'll be met with some very stern words.
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Posted on: Oct 22 2019, 08:06 PM


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Results are out! the zit potion is moving to phase 3 trial .... Yay! ... but a major part of the trial showed no statistical significance .... Boo! ... the results from the Australian bit of the trial were great! .... Yay .... but in the US part of the trial the placebo performed better than the drug .... Wha???

On hc, there is a small group of previously-unheard-on-the-BOT-threads posters that are posting negatively and repeatedly and most of the rahrah fan club have gone silent for the time being. One hc poster, Rusty, one of the fan club, is attempting to be rational / analytical and has picked up the disparity between the US and Australian results. It looks to me like they stuffed the trial up by using different products in the US than in Australia and the company is looking to move into phase 3 based on the Australian results. I suspect that Rusty is right that the company's announcement yesterday of having signed up one supplier to provide all future CBD requirements may well be an attempt to make sure this stuff-up does not happen again.

But I guess the bottom line is there is uncertainty in this announcement and as the market dislikes uncertainty the BOT share price is going lower.
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Posted on: Oct 22 2019, 02:53 PM


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Mr B - I suspect it all comes down to money. A slugathon that runs for the full 5 days is better for the media outlet that paid lots of money for the rights to the cricket than something that has 39 wickets fall in three and half days.
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Posted on: Oct 22 2019, 10:39 AM


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So, the time of judgement for Botanix and its many rabid supporters on hc has arrived. The stage 2 trial of its zit cream was completed last month and the stock has gone into a trading halt to allow for the "top line data" - which, as I learned yesterday, is a legal term - to be released. A few on hc are hedging by saying that they are actually waiting for some other trial results due out early next year. But the bottom line it seems to me is that given the hypothesis is that the anti-inflammatory, anti-microbial effects of CBD make it effective for not only acne, but also atopic dermatisis and psiorias (spelling?), then a poor result from the acne trial bodes badly for future trials for those other skin afflictions.

An interesting side-bar to this trading halt is that a couple of days ago a poster on hc claims he is a researcher and lecturer at the same institution as the lead researcher for the Melbourne part of the trial and apparently the poster claimed that the lead researcher told him that the Botanix product was not effective (I did not read the post before it was moderated but from what others said that appears to be the gist of the claim). Now others on hc have pointed out that the trial was a double blind trial so the researcher would not know which of his patients were treated with the Botanix product and which were treated with a placebo. Fair point, I think.


Also my view is what are the chances that a person smart enough to become a well-regarded specialist in dermatology is dumb enough to tell inside information about a commercial-in-confidence trial to someone he occasionally socialises with who is also smart enough to be a university researcher but is dumb enough to ask and receive inside information and then go onto the largest stock forum in the country and blurt out that inside confidential information. Personally I can imagine maybe one of the two people being momentarily imprudent but both of them? Doesn't past the sniff test for me.
But at the very least, this episode may possibly have brought forward when Botanix releases the results - there was a view that they would time releasing the results with the AGM that is on next week. Even any suggestion that there is trading of the stock when there is the taint of insider information floating about should be enough to bring a halt to trading (even more so if the company finds out that one of their lead researchers has spoken out of turn).
The rahrahness of the BOT threads on hc has all the feel of a mania but as Stavely has shown sometimes behind all the pumping and puffery there is substance. We will find out in the next couple of days whether Botanix is another exception to the rule.
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Posted on: Oct 17 2019, 09:44 PM


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Given the date stamp on the letter, the time you posted it and the time difference between here and Washington DC you don't even need to check the wording to identify it is as a fake.... graduated.gif
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Posted on: Oct 17 2019, 07:27 AM


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Really strong interview by Kyle Bass of Robert Spalding, who was defence attache at the US Embassy in Beijing and who has penned a book on his assessment of China and the Chinese Communist Party.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kl5279dWqGs

I consider Scott Morrision to be a fool, and his defence of Gladys Liu by claiming any examination of her activites to be "racist" and offensive to 1.4b Chinese and over a million ethnic chinese Australians only confirmed that to me. His response was a word perfect rendition of the CCP's main diversionary tactic.

(h/t to Timmeh at MB)
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Posted on: Oct 16 2019, 01:27 PM


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nip - Brian McNamee is rewriting history a tad imo. Whilst not many would have predicted CSL would grow into what it has become now everyone back then knew that CSL was an iconic operator with a big future. I've just drafted a very full explanation of why I say that but prudence has got the better of me and I've binned it. Let me just say that Brian Mc's story is more monty phython - I grew up in a shoe box I did - skit than reality, from my perspective anyway.
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Posted on: Oct 13 2019, 06:35 PM


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I see Warner's back to being a chmapion again according to Langer .... no he's not, for ever more he'll be known as Stuart Broad's bunny.

Also, the authorities dish up another concrete pitch for a first class game and ... geez all of a sudden we have lots of batsmen capable of scoring lots of runs.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-13/shef...-farce/11597968
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Posted on: Oct 10 2019, 11:36 AM


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blacksheep - no, I was more reminding myself of the regard that I have held Chris Cairns in, as my spidey sense was that this discovery seemed perhaps a bit too convenient.

The promotion of Stavely is a little complicated by the spruiking being done by an investor who used to be CC's brother-in-law and is now CC's ex-sister-in-law (which some may find an interesting story in itself, there's a 60 Minutes program about it, but the transformation is irrelevent to the Stavely story). Anyway CC's ex in-law is a very successful investor who has been heavily invested in Stavely and who has been doing some fairly impressive promotional work, including on hc, of the company. I tend to be wary of spruikers and was of the view that CC's ex in-law, plus a few others on hc, were going a bit hard on promoting what was a junior explorer that had little to show for all the drilling it had done. But without any decent drilling results all that promotional work would have come to nothing, and more to the point was coming to nothing. But then, this. Lots of pent up interest in Stavely built up on the SVY threads on hc turned into kenetic energy on the stock market and everything has changed.

Who is shimmer? I can't recall that name as being a hc regular, certainly not on the SVY threads.
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Posted on: Oct 9 2019, 10:12 PM


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The developers of lithium ion batteries are awarded the 2019 Nobel prize in chemistry.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-09/nobe...opment/11588298

And it was also announced that the parents of one of the winners, John B Goodenough, were given a posthumous kick up the bum for branding their son with a name that after 97 years he has finally lived up to. Reminds me of Johnny Cash's song about the boy being named Sue so as to toughen him up.
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Posted on: Oct 8 2019, 05:09 PM


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blacksheep - I've been watching the work of Chris Cairns, Stavely's main man, for over a decade and to date he's struck me as not one of the shonkies.

So in that light I can say without being accused of implying something dodgey that these results are the most convenient turnaround story I've witnessed for a junior mining stock. For months and months Cairns had been putting out announcements indicating that they were on top of the geology of where they were exploring and were just so close from discovering a potential massive porphery system. But in the end they had to suspend that search and move on to proving up what they had previously found in the shallows but had not thought to follow through with at the time. They were getting low on cash, it appeared that they had made a stumble in Tasmania, all their theories about the porphery system had not delivered results, CC was having issues in his private life, the indications were that Stavely was down to the last throw of the dice ... and then, THIS. It really is fairy tale / Hollywood stuff.
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Posted on: Oct 6 2019, 02:48 PM


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hat tip to skippy at macrobusiness:

https://twitter.com/BittelJulien/status/1179685787434180609


QUOTE
Yikes! Yesterday’s Conference Board CEO confidence number was just plain ugly. Lowest reading since Q4 ’08 & YoY lowest since Q2 ’79. CEO confidence has never been this low outside of US recession. This is the chart you should be paying attention to today. Recession is knocking.


Check out the top chart.
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Posted on: Oct 5 2019, 07:10 AM


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"Sex, drinking, driving: five areas where men and women are more similar than you think"

Apparently maths is not a strong suit amongst the headline writers at the London Tele ... (and no, I didn't read the article, even if I could get around the paywall it obviously is a puff piece).

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Posted on: Oct 2 2019, 06:48 PM


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It must be a hard day at the office being a bowler in top class limited overs cricket. Aaron Finch broke some sort of record with his 188 against Qld yesterday, Usman belted two big centuries in three days and Ms Healy went on a total rampage. The only way not to be belted is to bowl rubbish. Also it just gives an unfair advantage to players who throw the bat through the line of the ball. Neither Finch nor Usman show off too much if the bowlers are given half a chance (though Allysa Healy does appear to be more of a Matty Hayden then an Aaron Finch)
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Posted on: Oct 2 2019, 01:46 PM


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I see Stavely has put out a clarification statement regarding its door-busting announcement of 26 September. I skimmed it and it seems that Chris Cairns is pointing out that a fair portion of the drilling went through rock with little or no copper and that the results reported were based on visual analysis not assay results. I must have that wrong as I was sure that Stavely reported in the 26 September announcement hits of up to 40% copper from that hole (???) but the statement did clearly say that assay results are due in the next couple of days. Anyway SVY is off to the races again today so I must have looked at the wrong bits of the statement.
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Posted on: Sep 30 2019, 10:54 AM


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Mark Diamond ... unusual name for a fat opera singer ... (when someone with vested intersts says that their company is at fair value ....)
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Posted on: Sep 28 2019, 04:41 PM


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Trumpy's negotiating tactics...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_JOGmXpe5I
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Posted on: Sep 26 2019, 08:05 PM


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"you still in, triage?"
No, Chris Cairns was adament back in the middle of last year that they had picked up the scent of a porphery system and would have found it well before Christmas 2018. In my year end review I decided to move onto something a little less speculative. This latest hit seems to have been a hail mary as they had just announced they were giving up on the long held dream of finding that big porphery system. But anyway this time the luck of the bit went his way and it's always better to be lucky than good. I congratulate all those who hung in there with Chris and the team .... (but still, bugger).
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Posted on: Sep 25 2019, 11:43 PM


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P & A

I understand what you are saying about judicial activism but I thought this case was quite different and I see it is a conflation to look at this particular case through the judicial activism lens. The pommy legislature had actually passed a law related to brexit and the executive had attempted to close down the legislature so that the executive could operate unhindered by what the legislature had voted on (and which liz had signed off on) and likely would vote on. That is why the third branch of government, the judicial, stepped in, not to push its own agenda but to ensure that the legislative branch of government was not trampled on. This notion that it is only the executive - comprising the chosen leaders of those sitting in the government benches - that controls government is quite foreign to the westminster system as I understand it.


I see little difference between what our High Court did with the foreign citizenship issue and what the pommy Supreme Court did here. Remember if it had been left to our executive branch a number of people ineligible to be in parliament would have remained in place.


And as to the judges being unelected, well so are prime ministers. Both judges and prime ministers are selected by the elected.
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Posted on: Sep 24 2019, 08:20 PM


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It's good to see the British system is holding up despite all the stresses being placed on it. I don't care what the poms do regarding Europe - well actually about pretty much anything really - but given how closely our system is based on their system it is reassuring that the checks and balances there are kicking in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMGirLS4EBg
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Posted on: Sep 23 2019, 06:22 PM


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Well I stuffed up the first bit. The ASX is actually the Australian Securities Exchange, not the Australian Stock Exchange. Mea culpa.
But yeah, about company directors being prolific inside traders while the regulators pull a sargent shultz....
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Posted on: Sep 23 2019, 07:02 AM


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Signs that a journo is not fully across their subject matter .....

...."A new study suggests insider trading by company directors trading on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) is rife"......

And the finding of that study can't be right otherwise the regulators would be prosecuting company directors and I can't remember that ever happening in Australia.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-23/insi...-finds/11537080
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Posted on: Sep 15 2019, 07:40 AM


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Headline in the London Tele this morning ...

"£4.8m golden lavatory stolen from Blenheim Palace ... police have nothing to go on".

(also, the cricket).
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Posted on: Sep 13 2019, 06:47 PM


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balance - the point for me is that if you let first class cricketers hang around in the test team for long enough then sooner or later they will have a good day. Jason Gillespie has a test double century to his name, and good on him, but he was not a regular test player on the chance that he would produce such an innings. If the selectors keep giving Mitchell Marsh opportunity then sure he will have days like he had overnight. But why him, and not, say, Travis Head or Joe Burns or .... anyway, by all reports it was a good performance by Marsh last night.
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Posted on: Sep 12 2019, 11:14 PM


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I get the win the toss and bowl first bit ... this way the poms will bat for a day and a half, Mitch's magnificant bowling talents will be needed to plug an end from time to time while the proper bowlers have a rest, and then when we finally get to bat, Dave and Mitch might get to swing the bat at a few more straight ones than usual in this series. rolleyes.gif

Seriously why would you drop a youngish (25 year old) middle order batsman after winning a test whilst perservering with a 32 year old opener whose recent batting average is in the single digits.

The selections, the decision to bowl first and the sloppy fielding effort in session one suggests that they are either still hungover or have clocked off early.
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Posted on: Sep 9 2019, 07:34 PM


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Well, to be more precise, Steve Smith is a better team than the poms. If Smithy played in the last test we would likely have had a lead of at least 60 more runs. End result, the poms would not have won it. If "Smudge" was not playing in this test we would have been smashed and even his 82 in the second innings meant the poms had been batted out of the contest.

We have been fortunate to witness a once in a century cricketer in action. I remember watching a young Wally Lewis play Brisbane club footy, simply breathtaking, such dominance. I get the same vibe watching Steve Smith, and he is consistently doing it at the highest levels of competition.
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Posted on: Sep 8 2019, 10:11 AM


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Well the 80 odd from Steve Smith and the two quick wickets by Pat Cummins changed everything. Now, surely, it is just a matter of whether Nathan Lyons can do what he often does.

The commentators, both pommy and aussie, keep raving on about our bowling attack. Two things, if they are so good how come so often they can't get 20 wickets in a test, and, personally Stuart Broad would be my first pick in any bowling attack. He has shown grit and skill ever since he came into test cricket and, other than him having no answer for Steve Smith, he has been at the peak of prowess this series as well.
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Posted on: Sep 7 2019, 11:48 PM


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We only have to draw this test and the next and we retain the ashes but we are now so far ahead it will be tempting to press on for the win here and make the last test a dead rubber. The problem with going for the win is the GOAT looks all out of form, he failed to bring us home last test and looked fairly ineffectual in the first innings just concluded. And after the shemozzle of the last test the poms will likely back themselves a chance to run down even a sizeable total.


Also, it's a travesty that Joe Burns will not make an appearance in this series. Lots of goodwill shown by the authorities in sticking with Dave Warner, not sure it was warranted.
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Posted on: Sep 4 2019, 10:42 PM


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Lambshanks plays lucky but he seems a confident young bloke and is again taking the contest to the poms. Hopefully he keeps developing as a test player.


And it must be about time that the SOS goes out once again for Joe Burns to replace Warner (for starters he is right-handed)
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Posted on: Sep 2 2019, 05:25 PM


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... Mitch ....('cause the poms have an allrounder and look how well he went / 'cause his dad was really really good / 'cause it doesn't matter that he doesn't get many test wickets as we have the best bowling attack in the world).


... but yeah, hopefully you are right.
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Posted on: Aug 27 2019, 10:16 PM


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Well, that news comes as a shock ... they scored more than 67 runs and still lost. Must have had some bad luck.
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Posted on: Aug 24 2019, 03:02 PM


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balance - at one point last night there was some talk from the pommy commentators that this particular type of Duke ball is not fit for purpose. Apparently it was used in a county game some time ago and the game was called off (?) or at least it was a total shemozzle as the ball was virtually unplayable. So there was some surprise when the authorities decided to bring it back for the Ashes Series. It now seems that the pommy authorities outsmarted themselves because by targetting all the Aussie batsmen who can only play against undeviating white balls on unresponsive pitches they also exposed all their own batters who are actual world champions at that type of cricket. (I enjoy the understated commentary from most of them but if only I could selectively mute out Warne and Beefy Boofhead ... but I can't so I watch most of the coverage with the mute on).

Even the body language of lambshanks is that of a number 3.


I'm hoping the Goat will bring us home. I saw the only over he bowled in the first innings and he got one to rear up off a reasonable length and hit Paine around the neck.
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Posted on: Aug 23 2019, 10:56 PM


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"Sun will shine and the ball will be ramrod straight when it resumes tonigh for the Poms to bat." ... or not. That's the best I've seen Hazlewood bowl, ever. Sure, the conditions suit him and the Duke ball actually moves but he was bowling more fourth stump rather than his usual fifth and sixth stump stuff. I'm amazed all the poms seem to be batting with hard hands, I thought they would be used to playing in these conditions.
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Posted on: Aug 22 2019, 11:49 PM


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Not sure how you are supposed to bat when the ball is moving as much as it is today ... but the shot that Khawaja got out with was just a gift to the poms. I've pretty much given up on him, at least as a number 3, seems to get out to too many lazy shots. Two down for not much ... at least the NRL was worth watching tonight.
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Posted on: Aug 19 2019, 06:20 PM


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balance - I reckon lambshanks is a dead cert no matter if Smith is right to go or no, apparently he is the form player in county cricket this season and if we don't pick him then the poms might be tempted ( rolleyes.gif ).

Regarding Steve Smith's concussion ... apparently he passed all the tests on the day he got hit ... if that is right then they need to change the tests that they use. If any rugby league player got up off the ground as dusty as Smith was I'm fairly certain they would not be allowed back onto the playing field. He was clearly not compus mentos when he got out - the poms likely did him a favour by not bowling bouncers at his head. They will if he shows up to play on Thursday.
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Posted on: Aug 18 2019, 10:09 AM


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Yeah, but when I saw that the ball had hit towards the back of Steve Smith's neck I thought of what happened to Phil Hughes. I don't think Smith had those protective flaps on the back of his helmut that most players these days have.

Regarding Warner, I read that he dropped two catches last night. If he is not scoring runs and remains out of sorts maybe he needs some time away to get his act together. Bancroft too but at least he is contributing on the field. In the 3 innings in this series so far, Australia would have been absolutely buggered if not for Steve Smith. We simply cannot continue on carrying the openers and the number 3 and have the middle order spluttering along, as the poms have put together a very competitive combination of fast bowlers. I doubt if the home side will deliver a road for any of the rest of the matches and Warner seems not equiped to handle any sideways movement. Anyway we'll see what happens tonight but as it stands now I reckon at least one, maybe two, of the top order need replacing.

PS aren't the pommy crowds up themselves. Booing some bloke who has retired hurt. Pride goeth before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall.
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Posted on: Aug 16 2019, 05:42 PM


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If Troy was mining 4.3g/t ore it would be pulling in mountains of cash, but it's not and it aint, more like 2 g/t. Also Troy has been frustrated by narrow complex seams of ore. Maybe Guyana Goldstrike has better fortune ....
  Forum: Macro Factors

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Posted on: Aug 10 2019, 08:23 AM


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The Ramelius boss mentioned a few months ago that the rising cost of labour was a major reason why his firm's AISC was higher than planned, and the Dacian boss clearly blamed shortages of maintenance dudes for one of their contractors not delivering on production levels. But the Perth real estate market continues to say the crazy times of a few years ago have not returned to WA. I think the construction boom required far more workers than the production boom does, so yeah there might be shortages in certain trades but not for general rousabouts.

I think, in terms of investment, the shortage of funding to parts of the sector is more interesting. After Gascoyne, and the stumbles of Dacian and a few others, I suspect it will be hard work for a start-up goldy to get funding, either debt or equity, to drill out prospective areas and develop those areas into working mines. But the gold producers like Ramelius and Silver Lake who are sitting on torrents of cash flow from the jump in gold prices are well positioned to take out these wannabes cheaply and self-fund these developments. I'm not sure whether the money to be made is buying the wannabes or buying the predators. Explaurum shareholders certainly did well out of Ramelius taking them over (I don't know enough about Silver Lake's current target but from what I've read it looks to be a far better prospect than Explaurum and Silver Lake wants to pay less for it than Ramelius paid for Explaurum).
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Posted on: Aug 2 2019, 07:23 PM


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You still on the horse, Mick? Looks someone's been slipping a bit of elephant juice into its feed bin of late.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Aug 2 2019, 07:20 AM


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Gawd I find the ABC newsfeed webpage bloody frustrating ... Steve Smith score a gross and pulls Australia back from disaster and I only find this out when I look at the Guardian's and the London Tele's front pages ... what a little champion the bloke is turning out to be. Day one of the ashes - how important a time for him to stand up and put all those demons to rest. ... instead the ABC just in page is full of articles of the type you give to your work experience kids ... whoever is in charge of that service needs sacking .... elation mixed with frustration ...
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Posted on: Jul 30 2019, 09:42 PM


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nip - the word on hc from a couple who say they have been talking to Botanix is that $35m is going to a US specialist in biotech, Cowan, whilst Bell Potter and Agro the puppet (?) gets the opportunity to try and stag $5m, all done and dusted at 21 cents. What is not yet clear to me is whether Cowan has acquired a takeover blocking stake in Botanix itself or whether it is merely acting as a ticket clipper.


The Botanix threads on hc are dominated by a few butch cheerleaders who demand either fluff or pump posts and they have regathered their senses (from the initial shock of Botanix doing exactly what they declared repeatedly they would not do) and are now spinning this as a positive thing. Yeah nah. Botanix still have not handed out the final report on the early stage psoriasis trial and they are about a month away from getting some prelim feedback about the 2nd stage acne trial. The timing of this cap raise and the fact that it was got away at a 20% discount to yesterday's price smacks to me of Botanix hedging their bets. If the trial results are good then no one will be complaining about whether the share price was 21 cents or 26 cents at the beginning of August 2019 and if the results are disappointing then at least the company has enough in the kitty to try their luck with other product candidates: today's cap raise makes sense either way but does not predict one scenario over the other.
  Forum: By Share Code

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Posted on: Jul 23 2019, 07:22 AM


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Hang on, going on current trends in fifty years Israel will be an arab, muslim country. What we see now is akin to the last days of colonial India.

In the shorter term Israel can protect itself but has no chance of taking on a major military force like Iran, that's why they've been trying for years to get the Americans to take the lead on Iran. Not sure what Trumpy is up to...
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Posted on: Jul 8 2019, 08:24 PM


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Geez J, I watched a couple overs when Healy straight drove three or four times in a row. She looks a lot like her uncle but those shots were pure Greg Chappell. I remember seeing some games on the teeve a few years ago and most of the players were struggling to hit the ball to the boundary but the timing of some of the stroke play on display last night was just fantastic.
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Posted on: Jul 4 2019, 06:36 PM


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Not really apparently. EV's have something like 20 or so breakable moving parts - how often do you service your fridge? Even regarding all the computers and software apparently Tesla can do most of it remotely. That may be somewhat simplistic but one of the big investment banks has predicted that more than 50% of car dealerships in the US will close down in the next few years (and the big money in them currently is not in selling vehicles but in servicing them).
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Jun 29 2019, 09:47 PM


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nip - as was pointed out on macrobusiness this would be more of a Bear Stearns moment than a Lehman moment. Just as the US government bailed out Bear Stearns the Chinese have bailed out Baoshang Bank. The Lehman moment broke the dam wall because the authorities refused to bail them out causing a massive systemic shock.

I like how they said that Baoshang Bank had been reporting non-performing loans at only 2% until the muck hit the fan.


Anecdote time: Many years ago I had a meeting with the boss of a second tier Chinese financial entity who insisted that they had absolutely no non-performing loans. Knowing that his firm was based in a part of China that just had a real estate bust I quizzed him on the claim but he refused to budge. Afterwards one of the locals explained to me that if the financial entity did not insist that borrowers pay them back then the loans would not be classed as non-performing even if no repayments had been made. Moreover the rumour was that this financial entity had close working relationships with associates of the PLA and the provincial government so it had virtually an unlimited source of funds (from the provincial government) and had no wish to offend the PLA associates by asking them to repay the loans. No doubt China has tightened up a lot since then but I suspect that a lot of these financial entities would fold the moment various Chinese governments withheld their backing for them.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Jun 29 2019, 08:04 AM


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Toyota also seems to be leaning towards hybrids over EVs but are of course covering all bases. I see it got to over 45 degrees celsius in France overnight. A bit of hot weather and Trumpy playing chicken with the Iranians in the Straits of Hormuz might tilt the argument away from ICE vehicles perhaps.
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Posted on: Jun 20 2019, 07:02 PM


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A very impressive ASX announcement I have to say. Keen to see what the yanks and Europeans make of it overnight. I am always cautious of the spin that the corporate spruikers put on such developments so am interested in what the UQ researcher reports to a microbiology conference next Monday in the US.
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Posted on: Jun 18 2019, 08:59 PM


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Really poor timing by Ramelius to have come out with a mediocre update.

They reduced expected FY20 production from 230k to 250k ounces to just shy of 215k and they quantified that Explaurum had done a Gascoyne with the Tampia project (only with rose coloured glasses was either Gascoyne's Dalgaranga project or Explaurum's Tampia project a real show). The market seems to be forgetting that Ramelius bought Tampia using very conservative resource figures, not the pie in the sky figures that Explaurum had been using. But anything tainted with the overstatement of resources at the moment is getting hammered.


I think it will take Ramelius to remind the market that they are extremely good mine managers before it forgives them. That and some decent drill results.
Such is life.
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Posted on: Jun 16 2019, 10:23 PM


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Good point nip. Back in 1989 it was the visit by Gorbachev of the USSR to Beijing in mid May that caused the Chinese leadership to play nice for a while. They even kept Zhao Ziyang on as General Secretary of the Communist Party for Gorbachev's visit but within days he had been effectively purged and it had been decided to impose martial law.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_Sino-Soviet_Summit
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Jun 13 2019, 08:24 AM


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A good visualisation of why attempting to predict future events based on recent events can be a mug's game.


The way I read that graphic is not a single analyst was within a bull's roar of getting the end of June yield right and that the article also seems to make a false assumption that by the end of December some of those analyst predictions will not end up close to the mark. It may well be that yields recover from here (?).


Actually there is one analyst who totally broke from the pack but guessed the wrong way (if they'd got lucky and guessed the right way they'd be able to live off that lucky pick for years to come as the only analyst who got the yield call right in 2019).

https://ritholtz.com/2019/06/surprise-treasury-yield/
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Jun 7 2019, 12:42 PM


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Phillip Soos is an independent economist and commentator. I watched a recent interview of him where he claimed that the the "debt accelerator" (annual change in the amount of mortgage debt) and the sales to new listings ratios are the two most reliable leading indicators he knows of for house prices, with about a 6 to 9 month lag. He said that even after the election those two metrics were indicating not only a continued fall in property prices but that the falls would begin to accelerate.

He appears to be of similar thinking to Steve Keen and also often refers to the analytical work of Martin North so it may be that he resides in the housing bears echo chamber. Martin North keeps pointing to what happened in Ireland in 2008 as the best guide for what may well happen in Australia in coming months (though as John Hempton points out, Ireland was tied to the euro whereas Australia has the free floating AUD which normally acts as a cushion for the domestic economy).

On the other hand the two main bloggers at macrobusiness, David Llewellyn-Smith and Leith van Onselen, have recently done pretty much a 180 degree turn by saying that now is the time for owner occupiers to buy as there is a new but weak cycle forming (something to do with housing not being about economic fundamentals but more to do with political economics and if the powers-that-be want the housing market to recover then it will).

But back to the hard grind of reality I just saw that a very average 4 bed house with no usable garage and only one bathroom in an average Canberra suburb sold at auction the other day for $706k. That is just silly.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Jun 5 2019, 12:36 PM


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Just a follow up ....

... I see Dacian made an ASX announcement this morning and it was much, much more than just a production update. Basically the wheels are falling off and they've put a for sale sign up for the company. Is now off its lows for the day but still down about 60% on the price it was when it went into a trading halt a couple of days ago (and that was already about 40% off its highs).

I feel sorry for the mum and dad investors that got suckered by what appears to may have been a series of less-than-frank company updates in recent months. Gold is a major industry in Australia and this company was not a small speccy so it is quite possible some investors thought they may have been playing safe by investing in Dacian (as usual the regulators will do nothing: it seems in Australia these days the only way the ordinary people get looked after is if an ambulance chaser sees enough bounty to justify a class action). On the other hand I'm relieved I've dodged this particular bullet.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Jun 5 2019, 07:45 AM


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smile.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Jun 4 2019, 08:02 PM


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Mick - another local goldy that could be going against the rising tide created by the high AUD gold price is Dacian Gold (DCN). I've been cramming this evening as to what is going on with it but apparently last quarter it downgraded its production estimate and guidance going forward and then yesterday it went into a trading halt as it prepared another production update. I'm not sure I can remember seeing a company take two full days to crunch the numbers for a production update other than when things are falling apart and they need to totally re-consider all their assumptions ie the update which may come out tomorrow will likely be a fair bit more than just a production update (??).

It does not appear to be the basket case that Gascoyne and Blackham are in that it still has a market cap of over $300m. However the DCN share price has crashed something like 40% in recent times on the basis that it seems that they are not finding the amount and grade of gold their modelling suggested they would find. Interesting side story is that co-incidentally the geologist who was the competent person in the modelling of Gascoyne's mine which is not producing the gold that was thought to be there was also the competent person for the modelling of Dacian's mine which apparently is also not producing the gold that was thought to be be there. How unlucky?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Jun 4 2019, 04:35 PM


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Well Gascoyne (GCY) hasn't, earlier this week they called in the administrators a month after they did a cap raising of about $25m. CBA is is owed heaps, I think the total debt outstanding is about $100m. Strangely enough the administrator has said it will keep the mine operating even though the company said they are going backwards with every ounce extracted.

And Blackham (BLK) is one sick puppy as well. Still operating and still mining but has the look of a zombie.

If these outfits can't make a quid with Aussie gold at record prices well I'm not sure there is much hope for them. Maybe AUD at 60 cents might do the trick?

On the other hand miners like Ramelius (RMS) and Silver Lake (SLR) with several operating camps, with no debt and each pulling in about $25m in free cash each quarter should, I would think, be solid performers.
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Posted on: Jun 2 2019, 01:05 PM


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Is that the one in Bangkok? You jetsetter you. rolleyes.gif


Capital Appreciation, who apparently is a bit of legend in ACT real estate blogging, mentioned on macrobusiness that he went to an auction in Narrabundah yesterday. The place sold for $895k late last year and all they got yesterday was crickets from the crowd, so it was passed in at $900k (taking into account costs these people are looking at a chunky loss).

https://www.allhomes.com.au/sale/11-warramo...berra-176697316

Someone else pointed out that the number of confirmed sales in Sydney yesterday was about the same as for the corresponding weekend last year and about half that of the corresponding weekend in 2017. Sydney and Melbourne have been deflating for about 20 months straight now, and that predates the royal commission and any effect of the ALP's election platform. Perhaps we will see a dead cat bounce in the big cities but given the coalition has undertaken to cut another $1.5b from the public service maybe Canberra will flatline at best (???).
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Jun 2 2019, 10:21 AM


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This is probably good news for Botanix (BOT not BOX) which is working through the formal processes of getting several of its trial products approved by the US FDA.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...cannabis-weekly

Botanix uses synthetically produced CBD which means it is using a pure substance, unlike CBD produced from plants which contains varying amounts of CBD and impurities. And it already has two products in phase 2 trials, for severe acne and atopic dermatitis, and one for psoriasis in an early stage safety trial, which if they survive the trials will allow Botanix to seek FDA approval. Pressure for the FDA to go easy on CBD products will be alleviated if it can show that it is working with companies to produce CBD based products that have been proven to meet its standards.

What also separates Botanix products from over-the-counter type products is that the delivery system Botanix uses is able to deliver much higher amounts of CBD under the skin than other products that have been tested.

Anyway, Botanix is late delivering the results from a couple of trials which is rarely a good sign. So it may go the way that most of these pharma start ups go...
  Forum: By Share Code

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Posted on: May 29 2019, 07:25 PM


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nip - I don't follow Galaxy but from what I gather they announced they are doing a buy-back and also that they are going to build a downstream processing operation in China. Re the first one, that's pretty weird if you ask me, I would have thought the company would do far better putting every dollar it has into expanding its operations. Buy backs are for companies and sectors far more matured than Galaxy and lithium (???).

And re the second one, it is one thing to swim with the sharks, it is another thing entirely to stick your head in a shark's mouth. I know a number of the WA spodumene (?) miners have done sales and equity deals with Chinese firms and that all seems to be okay. But, if, as it seems, China views lithium production in the same strategic way it sees rare earth production, then it is crazy-brave in my view for Galaxy to be injecting capital into a processing plant in China.

There is more talk, there is always talk, on hc that Pilbara (PLS) is about to announce the jv with the South Korean, Posco, which will mean it is also going downstream but in South Korea. I note that Pilbara does have a couple of Chinese entities on its registry and marketing its product.

Also, Orocobre recently posted a photo of a couple of its executives meeting with a Chilean official. Orocobre is a bit exposed in that both of its projects are on the same salt lake in Argentina. I would guess both Orocobre and its Japanese backers would be concerned about the concentrated location and country risk in the current set-up. It would make sense were they to diversify by acquiring and developing a lithium brine operation in Chile (but no talk of that yet).
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Posted on: May 28 2019, 12:55 PM


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What? Forget about the pathetic battery hen, why no mention of the rise of that all conquering, all devouring Australian Bin Chicken?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4dYWhkSbTU
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: May 24 2019, 07:37 AM


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nip - I listened to his interview on the Swagman podcast and in that interview he was very specific he was talking about Sydney markets, and more so the north western suburbs. He was asked what he thought about the Melbourne market and he said he had no opinion. The metric he was using was loan size over household income. He said that initially he was told by bankers that the maximum they would lend was 6.8 times household income but when he made enquiries of some mortgage brokers they were able to offer bank loans at over 10 times his stated household income. Hempton said he had no idea what percentage of mortgage loans in the Sydney market was above the 6.8 times banks themselves advised were the maximum. He said if only 5% of bank loans were over the maximum then no big deal but if it were 30% or 50% then that could trigger a major economic recession.

I thought the biggest statement Hempton made in that interview was his belief that the RBA will not defend the AUD and that so in an economic downturn it will be the AUD that crashes to buffer the rest of the economy from much of the pain.

My understanding is that whilst Hempton and his hedge fund is based in Sydney both his clients and his investments are mainly in the US and Europe. Anyway if you think he's a doomster then go for it, I have no particular dog in that fight.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: May 23 2019, 05:32 PM


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eb - thanks for that. There is a park called Jingshan Park which is immediately north of the forbidden city in Beijing where on weekends crowds of people go to either ballroom dance (or some other form of group exercise) or to sing patriotic songs. Mostly the people who knew all the old revolutionary songs were the older generation but there would always be a smattering of younger people as well. Made for an enjoyable outing.

Also I remember the time when China played Japan at the main soccer stadium in Beijing and over 50,000 beiren began chanting "kill the japanese". The Japanese team had to get extra protection to get out of the stadium unharmed. I have little doubt that the Chinese populace will fall totally in line with the authorities as soon as there is any preceived external challenge. When stirred China can out-North Korea North Korea. I would not want to be an expat living in China should Trumpy attempt to humiliate China. (sorry, wrong thread).
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: May 22 2019, 12:16 PM


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He didn't call a crash. From what I can see he said that in the worst case scenario prices would drop x% and the AUD would drop y%. He also provided another scenario, one that he thinks more likely, where the outcomes would be far less dire.

The differences from Steve Keen and John Hempton is that Keen is an academic and Hempton is a money manager and that Keen spoke in absolutes and Hempton appears to be speaking in probabilities. Hempton would be crazy (and broke) if he did not look at all scenarios and to be ready to adjust depending on which scenario plays out.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: May 16 2019, 08:26 AM


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Another big US thermal coal producer goes broke, forced out by cheaper, cleaner alternatives.

https://arstechnica.com/information-technol...for-bankruptcy/

The difference is that in the US gas is accepted as a cheaper, cleaner alternative to thermal coal whereas in Australia it is not.

(also the url misspeaks by saying the company is the third largest US coal producer when in the article the company is identified as being the fourth biggest).
  Forum: Macro Factors

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Posted on: May 15 2019, 11:52 AM


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This should make your blood boil. How the hell are we having to import gas??? Why do we let big companies get away with avoiding paying tax??? And in what world does it make sense that Australia, which is one of the biggest exporters of gas, end up paying more for its retail gas than customers in east Asia???


From Michael West, one of the last investigative journalists left in Australia (and hat/tip to jelmech@bigpond.com)


https://www.michaelwest.com.au/gas-deal-a-m...-and-singapore/
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Posted on: May 8 2019, 08:57 PM


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Tis a poor tradesman that blames his tools ... also, this decision seems to confirm that Telstra is the only silver-back allowed in this patch of the forest.
  Forum: By Share Code

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Posted on: May 7 2019, 05:44 PM


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Didn't stop them in 2007 or 2013 though (both instances saw a change in government). It's as much a political decision not to cut the rates now as to go ahead and do it, certainly Josh Friedburger is playing it up as a sign the current government is on top of things. The RBA was in a no win situation today but they will cop some flack if they drop the rates in June and then again soon after.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: May 7 2019, 02:24 PM


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Mick - I was thinking the same thing. I've known a couple of wallopers who've worked in a PM's protection unit. I would think the bloke on duty will cop some stick from his mates and perhaps a bit more from his boss. The young lass with the egg looks harmless enough and generally we expect our bodyguards to be a bit more discreet than say the yanks. But still, that's a breach.

(also my "shocking!" was not my reaction but more a weak attempt at a play on the journo using "unphased" [as in electricity] in place of "unfazed").
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: May 7 2019, 12:15 PM


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"He appeared unphased in the minutes after the incident..."

Shocking!

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-07/scot...-trail/11087174

The protestor probably used an organic free range egg, if she'd only used a cheap cage egg the eggshell would not have been so hard to crack.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: May 7 2019, 10:24 AM


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Mick - the advantage of using one of the big accounting firms is that they will give you the conclusion and recommendations you paid for.


The obscene amount of fees paid by government to the major consulting/accounting firms is one of the great conjobs of our history. For starters, how the hell does Defence not have inhouse expertise on something as basically important as aircraft maintenance. And even if they do not, as you say surely there are actual experts in engineering and the like that service the aircraft industry.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: May 5 2019, 08:04 AM


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Kyle Bass was one of a group of analysts on China that I used to regularly listen to. I've not seen or read anything by him for years but my memory was that he made some couregous predictions which did not quite come to pass and he lost his standing somewhat. Anyway I've stumbled across this recent presentation by him in which he sort of comes across as a USA USA MAGA sort of spruiker rather than a rational analyst.

Interesting what he says about Hong Kong - it has been defying the odds pretty much for as long as I've had anything to do with it. I agree it is overextended in all sorts of ways but then again that has been the case for decades. Who is to say that now is the time it will all crash and burn. From a personal angle it would be not the worst thing to happen if HK hit a (small) wall as I know a few HKers who think that they are invincible as investors and who could do with an ego check (imo).

Also interesting how he is keen for Trumpy not to sign a trade agreement with China but rather wait them out for another six months until they have no choice but to submit, along the lines of the USSR collapsing. Again, I suspect that that is too simplistic a take on things because there is nothing to suggest that the Chinese Communist Party has reached a similar place to the Soviets under Gorbachev. China effectively stood by the US during the GFC and if they think that the US is successfully destabilising them now then there will be repercussions. But anyway USA USA MAGA.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFHblUtKOhw
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: May 4 2019, 02:38 PM


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Yeah, fair point, I was not aware that there was so much promised action in WA.

But $600m? The Orocobre LiOH plant to be built in Japan has a US$91m price tag. The Kidman plant might just be intended to have a much higher production rate but also Orocobre will be feeding 99% pure lithium carbonate into its LiOH plant whereas I think the hard rockers' product is about 6% pure which may require much more processing to get to LiOH.
  Forum: By Share Code

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Posted on: May 3 2019, 11:47 AM


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From the ABC about Adani hitting a hurdle on how it will look after a native finch at its proposed coal mine.

"Last night, the proposed coal mine was dealt a massive blow when the Queensland Department of Environment and Science (DES) rejected Adani's current management plan for the southern black-throated finch. It told the Indian miner ..."

In the ACT there is an active trapping and killing campaign for the introduced bird pest, the Indian Myna. It seems like the Indian Miner is being as much of a pest for both major political parties and apparently for a native finch as the Indian Myna is for native birds in general.
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Posted on: May 2 2019, 02:15 PM


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Not up to speed on the hard rock lithium players but just on the chemical processing idea Orocobre is working with Toyota Tsusho - a trading firm in the Toyota stable - to build a LiOH processing plant in Japan (near the crippled nuclear powerstation) and Pilbara Minerals seems to be looking to build a LiOH plant by way of a JV with POSCO in Korea.

Both LiOH plants are being built amongst clusters of businesses working on battery production. Orocobre's plant, which they will hold 75% of but only need to put in US$6.8m (total cost is about US$91m and most of it is borrowed at mate's rates of less than 1% interest), will be built near a cathode manufacturer and there is a planned battery factory there as well (I'm guessing it may involve the JV between Panasonic and Toyota that was recently formed to build a series of battery factories).

I'm a great fan of Michael Porter's theory on clustering of related businesses giving a competitive advantage. Were Kidman to build a LiOH plant in WA it would stick out like a shag on a rock. Australia has no car industry, we forfeited our advantage in solar panels, and Perth is a long way from even the east coast research and development clusters. I don't know enough about Westfarmers as to whether they have much inhouse expertise with lithium processing. But I would think that SQM, a lithium big-hitter, would want to play safe with locating any LiOH plant near existing clusters of excellence. But I could be way off track here ...
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Posted on: Apr 30 2019, 12:45 PM


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This is not a river in Eygpt ... I read some analyst saying that a contracting housing market will not impact employment in the sector because Australia has a long term shortage of construction workers. But if a quarter of new home buyers are not going ahead with building surely that means that the demand of work building new homes will be cut by about the same proportion. I suppose not all alotment sales were going to new home buyers as apparently amongst the uber crowd people were leveraging up to the max to sit on numerous blocks in the expectation that prices would keep spiralling upwards.

From memory the construction sector employs about 9% of Australian workers so ...
(great link eb, thanks muchly).
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Apr 26 2019, 04:38 PM


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Tesla's demise is like Brexit concluding, is like Trumpy finally going too far, is like China hitting the wall, is like the housing market having a major correction, is like a couple of my stocks becoming fairly priced, is like ... always about to happen, never seems to happen, we live in an era where there are no consequences. rolleyes.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Apr 14 2019, 04:07 PM


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Yeah I started using it after some poster kept calling me a sheeple just because I did not agree with his batshit crazy conspiracy theories. Hence, Shawn. Sharescene is not quite the barroom brawl it used to be but I've grown fond of the picture.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: Apr 11 2019, 02:05 PM


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Well someone found it exciting.

https://imgur.com/gallery/eN6LVFM

Just think: in ten years time people will look at that page and marvel at how bulky the storage units required were not at how many petabytes it took.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: Apr 11 2019, 10:26 AM


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Yes hardly worth the 55 million year wait is it. Certainly less momentous than the broadcast of the final series of Game of Thrones, which we know is already finished being filmed and is in the can... rolleyes.gif . The space geeks seem pretty excited by the photo but I suspect most ignoramuses like moi will just go, meh, and move onto the sports pages.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: Apr 3 2019, 12:58 PM


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alonso - does sound like you're not a seasoned shopper. Both Woolies and Coles work on weekly cycles starting each Wednesday. If you stick to buying special deals from them and do a bit of stockpiling the Coles/Woolies portion of your grocery bills can be reduced by 40 or 50%. Lots of people shop on Wednesdays for that reason (Aldi also puts specials out on Wednesdays and Saturdays). Then you have the pensioners and other welfare recipients (and public servants?) that get their money on a Thursday and of course the double income families have little choice but to shop on weekends. Tuesdays are at the end of that cycle so yeah the supermarkets can go a tad quiet. (I've never actually seen stats to back all this up but generally speaking Tuesdays are the quiet day in retail). rolleyes.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

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Posted on: Mar 28 2019, 12:07 PM


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Well the WA Supreme Court has okayed the schemes agreed to by Doray shareholders so the merger deal between Doray and Silver Lake should be done and dusted by 8 April (in time for Brexit! rolleyes.gif ). Don't know what the shorters are seeing, hopefully they do their dough. I've read all the arguments about shorters providing liquidity and such but much of the time I think they are parasites whose MO is to "short and distort" (as that article that blacksheep posted described it).
  Forum: By Share Code

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Posted on: Mar 27 2019, 07:37 PM


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It must be something else as the scheme has already been approved by Doray shareholders and pretty much all that is left to complete the merger is for the WA supreme court to okay it first thing tomorrow morning. Perhaps there is a view that Doray is getting the better of the deal than Silver Lake and that when the deal is done on 5 April SLR shares will adjust downwards to factor in that misvaluation (?). I have found with gold stocks (well actually with stocks generally) that whatever can go wrong does go wrong so maybe the deal is about to fall over at the last hurdle.

It has to be said that Silver Lake has enjoyed a wonderful run of late, since late November, similar to that of Ramelius. Both are benefitting from record high gold prices and both are sitting on over A$100m in cash and gold reserves. With the merger with Doray Silver Lake will overtake Ramelius in terms of ounces produced this fiscal year but both have been feeling their oats.
  Forum: By Share Code

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Posted on: Mar 21 2019, 06:47 PM


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Good to see the plod involved. If the matter was left to the financial regulators ...
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Mar 15 2019, 04:16 PM


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... in bed with the vampire squid ... yeah nah I'll take that as a negative indicator for Geocon's prospects.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Mar 14 2019, 09:37 PM


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Mick

There's lots of this ...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2019-03-1...orkers/10900850

and this ...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-14/fran...tation/10900582

(what I don't think is pointed out by that Senate report is that buying a franchise is commonly used by new migrants as a way of buying themselves and their family members jobs - they are easy targets for the franchisors because the new migrants are ignorant of local business practices and laws).

So the end result is that the newly arrived are undercutting wages and business profits for the already established locals.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Mar 14 2019, 04:53 PM


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Well for lots of the locals things are (relatively) grim already. Pretty much the only reason why this country has been growing in recent times is because the ATM government has effectively thrown the doors at the airports open and is letting in just about anyone who can get a visitor visa and an airticket. All those extra arrivals means the aggregate figures keep going up but the locals are not seeing any improvement in their personal circumstances.

Of course when the aggregate recession hits many of the newcomers will choose to leave which will push the aggregate GDP down even further.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Mar 14 2019, 01:02 PM


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... though there's this ... corelogic reported auction stats for Canberra for this last weekend and the corresponding weekend last year. The auction results were below 30% and I heard it explained as being a slow weekend because of the local long weekend (for Canberra Day). So it was reported that there were 44 auctions held last Saturday with only 10 "cleared" auctions (as in the gavel dropped), which is about a 28% clearance.


But for the corresponding weekend last year, which was also the Canberra Day long weekend, there were 64 auctions held with a clearance of about 77%. So not only was there a 30% drop in auction activity there was a collapse in properties sold by auction in the ACT of about 80% compared to the corresponding weekend last year.

House prices in the ACT appear not to have fallen much yet, but going on auction activity and auction clearance rates all of the pressure is starting to pile on to the sellers.

(data via macrobusiness)
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Mar 14 2019, 10:38 AM


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nip - by my count Geocon currently has 8 construction sites for high rise developments in the ACT. They claim to account for about 50% of the apartments being built in the territory. All their sites seem to be active again after the Christmas shutdown but I keep expecting to see flags on their construction cranes during working hours (they hang an Australian flag on inactive cranes). I see that they are guaranteeing set rental yields for 5 years for at least some of their off-the-plan projects which suggests that their sales side is under pressure.

Having said that I know of no apartment projects in Canberra that have shut down and local house and unit prices seem to be holding up okay. People keep telling me that the Canberra market is different, maybe they're right.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Mar 14 2019, 10:27 AM


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"Kohli will be seething !!!"

But a lot of bookies, not so much.

On the face of it, yeah, a famous victory by an understrength Aussie side against a powerful opposition at home, but unfortunately spot and game fixing in international cricket is a thing.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: Mar 8 2019, 07:47 PM


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Because it is costing currrent taxpayers about $5b a year for starters. Because it is allowing lots of baby boomers to sit on their accumulated capital and live off "refunds" financed by current taxpayers rather than to gradually liquidate that accumulated capital. I actually spent time in the part of government that helped formulate superannunation policy in the Keating years and I don't recall that the purpose of superannuation was to allow people to retire, to live off the income from superannuation and hang on to the capital, and then pass it all on to the kids.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: Feb 27 2019, 03:29 PM


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Meh, what could go wrong? ... it's not as if they are both prone to over-reacting ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7JW_a-lz8sg

(looks like John Cleese's take on the haka)
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Feb 26 2019, 06:28 PM


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Mick - you might be interested in this recent article by Stephen Roach which looks at both the US and China. He is the first commentator I can recall that argues that the US may come out worse off than China from the current trade ruckus.

The article appears not to be behind the Australian Financial Review paywall but I've put it throught the Outline site just in case (from all I've heard Outline is not dodgey and does break through a number of the media paywalls).

https://www.outline.com/2TSN6t

Just a reminder that for pehaps well over a decade Stephen Roach was Morgan Stanley's China pointman and he is (or was) as well informed as any western analyst on what was happening in China. He was no doubt a full-on China bull, but he was a very knowledgeable one.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Feb 21 2019, 02:53 PM


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I hope that statement by the Helloworld CEO was drafted by his gun lawyer as to this mug punter it looks like it contains a clear misrepresentation.

His statement says in part: "Mr Burnes did not request the meeting with DFAT personnel in the United States."


But Helloworld's pointman on servicing the needs of the embassy in Washington, Russell Carstensen, has sent written correspondence to the Senate in which he says in part:"I was contacted by Mr Burnes [Helloworld's CEO] via email/SMS and voice call to tell me he had arranged a meeting with Mr Hockey and I had to fly home via Washington to meet with him. I asked Mr Burnes how could this be done so quickly. He verbally advised me, ‘Hockey owes me.’"

Carstensen also said that when he advised Department of Finance officials that he had met with Joe Hockey about travel services to the embassy in Washington they indicated their concern about the probity of this and as a result Carstensen made no further effort to correspond with Hockey. For those who don't know the Department of Finance is a central policy agency whose remit includes the expected standard of behavior from public servants (particularly when it comes to spending money).
  Forum: By Share Code

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Posted on: Feb 21 2019, 11:33 AM


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Mick - though as it was pointed out on macrobusiness employment is a lagging indicator, many of the leading indicators are showing that a downturn will make itself obvious in a couple of months or so.


And yeah lots of the stats are totally screwed up by the unprecedented numbers of migrants being allowed in. For instance I saw that after scummo promised to create a million new jobs some analyst worked out that almost all the new jobs will be created as a result of the migration numbers and that almost all of the jobs created will go to migrants, not locals. So in terms of GDO per capita, wages growth and unemployment levels things will continue to go backwards. This country is likely already in a recession but no one knows about it (it's our wile e coyotee moment).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gq_bjaI0NTo
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: Feb 21 2019, 09:55 AM


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11:15 am is pretty much the same time that bank share prices took off on the day the banking rc was released. Looks like the trading desks start their day at 11:00.
  Forum: By Share Code

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Posted on: Feb 21 2019, 09:49 AM


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He said another chain in the same boat was women's fashion house Maggie T, which was created in the image of fashion icon Maggie Tabberer.

"Maggie T was something of the past," he argued.

"It was nice, it was quaint, but it wasn't resonating with the greater bulk of the Australian consuming public."

Yeah I reckon that is a strange thing to say about Maggie T given that the brand was set up to cater for women of greater bulk.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-21/aust...tition/10832062

But anyway I reckon there is more to it than just local brands suffering from competition from foreign operators. In the two big shopping centres I frequent in the ACT there are shopfronts boarded up all over the place. I remember in the months leading into the 1990 recession you could see a wave of shops being vacated in regional cities and suburban centres. It was only when the full force of the recession hit that the effects became manifest on the high street. This time around even A grade retail locations are buckling even though talk of a recession is still only on the margins.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: Feb 13 2019, 10:35 AM


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No EB, you're the little bird of happiness. biggrin.gif I think you are on the money.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Feb 9 2019, 07:25 AM


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I've been really unimpressed and disinterested in the Big Bash this year. Seems I'm not alone with crowds down about 30% on last year. From the snippets I've read about it lots of lopsided games, lots of players not firing etc. Anyway last night I decided I should make the effort to watch some on the teeve and it happened that the underperforming Heat were playing one of the Melbourne sides. I sat down just as the Heat started batting. Bloody hell! There was some clean hitting on display with both batters scoring about 80 off 30 balls to finish the game within 10 overs. What a demolition job.

So I was lucky to witness probably the best 10 overs of BBL cricket this year (though the women's semi finals were pretty good as well).

Also, what a joke the national selectors are: Kurtis Patterson scored two centuries for Australia A and goes straight into the test side (fair enough). Matthew Wade totally dominates the entire BBL season and cannot even make the limited overs squad. One can only assume that the national selectors are protecting Tim Payne who apears to be a better captain than he is a cricketer. Surely Wade could be selected purely for his batting skills. A travesty imo.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: Feb 7 2019, 07:01 AM


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Yeah I doubt it would have come out of the lock-up. More likely it came from a polly or one of their staffers who would have been poring over and discussing the report for the entire weekend. Sometimes it's not what you say but what you don't that conveys the message. Shameful that they did not release the report on Sunday night. So obvious what they were setting up.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Feb 6 2019, 12:16 PM


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Gee there's no irony in the setting for that photo: scummo and two bankers at a happy clappy convention on values.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Feb 6 2019, 10:46 AM


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Mick - If Kenneth Hayne was a racehorse there would have been a stewards enquiry called and he would have been taken straight to the swabbing box and the vet would be whistling up a sample. Up till now I would not have considered it a possibility that a high court judge in Australia, even a retired one, could be nobbled, but there is little doubt in my mind that for whatever reason Hayne ran dead in writing up his report.

I thought Rowena Orr looked like something or someone had rattled her towards the end as well. I said at the time that the CEO of Combank had got the better of her, she seemed not to challenge some of his absurd assertions like she had done with previous people. Maybe she had a sick kid, maybe she had been cowered by an young buck alpha male, maybe it had been suggested to her that she needed to look ahead to her career prospects, I don't know but that was the first time I had the impression that the royal commission was starting to back away from its initial impressive approach.

I now see the productivity commission has come out and said that the various airport monopolies in Australia are, despite all indications, not behaving like monopolies. Graham Samuel, who admittedly heads up the airline lobby group, was scathing about that finding on ABC radio national this morning. He gave the simple example where the productivity commission found that stupidly high carpark prices at airports are fair because of the convenience factor, and he pointed out that to park at Sydney Airport costs $54 but to park at a nearby major hospital is $27, half the price. Smells like another dodgey report that protects existing oligopolies that have tight links with this government.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Feb 5 2019, 10:57 AM


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blacksheep - it now seems clear as day that it was all a stitch-up between the bankers and the current government. The only question unanswered is weather Kenneth Hayne was in on it or if he was just a patsy. Wonder who the commissioner ran the draft of his final report past for any suggested corrections?


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-05/big-...letter/10778928
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Feb 4 2019, 10:21 PM


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What EB said! biggrin.gif

Mick if you want to kill some hours SBS ondemand has heaps of kung fu shows on at the moment leading up to lunar new year.

(gong xi fa cai EB)

The worry I have with Mitchell Starc is that speed alone clearly is enough against the likes of the Sri Lankans but perhaps not against better batters. The Indians got into him a bit and he did not seem to rise to the occasion. But you'd have to keep picking him anyway as if nothing else he can clean up the tail.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

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Posted on: Feb 4 2019, 06:50 AM


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The day is starting off appearing to be an absolute horror for the housing sector.

First up, today we get the final report of the Kenneth Hayne banking royal commission. Anything less than an excoriation of the lending mentality of the banks will be a shock and a profound disappointment. Any idea that the banks can go back to their old loose lending ways is or should be a fantasy. What has been going on in the housing market in the last six months will become the new norm.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australi...SKCN1PS0M3?il=0

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-04/bank...making/10771612

Then there's this. A fire has broken out in a high rise apartment block in the Melbourne CBD at about 5:00 this morning. The ABC is reporting that firefighters believe that it is spreading through the combustible cladding on the building. From all reports there are thousands of apartment blocks in Australia where combusible cladding was used in construction. The problem (plus a few others not typical in modern Australian buildings) was highlighted by the Grenfell fire in the UK. Up till now no action has been taken for most Australian buildings but to remedy the problem will cost individual unit owners tens of thousands of dollars. Besides who wants to invest in or live in a fire-trap?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-04/spen...bourne/10776018
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Feb 1 2019, 08:47 PM


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The dudes at macrobusiness have been calling for some time now that the next RBA move will be down (they may not be considered mainstream but it is fairly obvious that lots of insiders keep an eye on what they are saying). Likely what the RBA does will not be the whole story anyway as the banks are pushing their rates up independently of what the RBA is doing (something like 40% of their money is raised offshore and that is where the upward pressure is coming from apparently). The other factor is banks are knocking back heaps more mortage applications - a couple of years ago they were knocking back something like 5% of mortgage applications now the figure is more like 40%.

Also, I've seen numerous reports where banks were offering loans of say $1.2m 12 months ago but now are only willing to lend say $800k. So someone who could afford to pay say $1.5m for a property can now only buy something worth say $1.1m. I suspect the banks will get such a rogering from the Royal Commission report that they will remain risk averse for the forseeable future.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Feb 1 2019, 08:36 PM


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Any experts on body language out there?

https://www.theguardian.com/global/video/20...ergs-hand-video
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Posted on: Jan 24 2019, 05:28 PM


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Different opposition and different conditions obviously but gee it's refreshing when one of our opening bowlers bowls full and at the wickets and takes a couple of early wickets. Pat Cummins and the GOAT can do the job from there.

Hey J what is wrong with the Gabba and Qld cricket fans? School holidays, 3 Qlders in the team, and yet when I was listening to it on the radio they had not much more than 6,000 at the ground. Why can smaller cities like Adelaide and Perth pull much bigger crowds? Are the tickets too dear or is there just no marketing done?
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Posted on: Jan 21 2019, 10:49 AM


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Sounds a bit like buying a lottery ticket: you know someone is going to make a killing from the venture but what numbers do you need for that someone to be you. (like the car industry in the US in the early 20th century - there were hundreds of start-ups but only a handful came through).
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Posted on: Jan 19 2019, 06:59 PM


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J - I listened to some of the call on ABC radio for both games. Really competitive stuff, and fantastic endings to both games. Healy's run out on the last ball of the Sixers Renegades game was also the work of a champion. But yeah it does look like Perry can do it all. Great stuff. Shame the boy cricketers cannot get their acts together and play like professionals.

The women also showed up the men at the tennis, if not in results then at least in effort. If it were up to me I'd ban both Tomic and Kyrios from all Australian tournaments for being incorrigible d!ckheads.
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Posted on: Jan 18 2019, 06:36 PM


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Nip - At the moment I'm reading a book called "The Tiananmen Papers" which is a chronologue of internal Communist Party reports leading up to the 4 June massacre. The striking thing for me is how all along Deng Xiao Ping and the other elders wanted to close down the "turmoil" being caused throughout China by university students protesting because it put at risk the clear strategy of reform and opening of China. Even though Li Ping should have been installed as the boss of the Communist Party during this period, Deng and Co plucked a little known Jiang Zemin out of Shanghai who had no experience in the Party Central in Beijing to be the big boss. Li was rejected by the elders to a large extent because he was a conservative not a reformer whereas Jiang was a pragmatist who knew to follow the codified instructions of the Party elders.

So this strategy of economic reform and opening - political reform and opening was never a starter - had been in place from Deng and Chen Yun to Jiang and onto Hu Jintao which is a span of about 35 years. It is true that it seems that Xi Jinping is attempting to turn back the tide by effectively renationalising much of the Chinese economy but it might be some time yet before we know that Xi's strategy is worse or better than the reform and opening strategy.
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Posted on: Jan 18 2019, 02:26 PM


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I read somewhere that about a quarter of this company's revenue comes from penalties for late payments and that it gets around being under the regulator's watch by not charging interest as such. I dunno, maybe it's another disrupter like Uber (was allowed to be), but I'm fairly confident there will be heavy lobbying for a "level playing field" for providers of consumer credit to include Afterpay.
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Posted on: Jan 18 2019, 10:42 AM


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I think this is a good read from the Irish Times (not intended as a shot at anyone here who is generous enough to share their thoughts and analysis).

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/persona...casts-1.3747774
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triage
Posted on: Jan 12 2019, 12:16 PM


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No pajama cricket on free to air Channel 7 today. Yay, I actually find most ODI games unentertaining. Anyway, it doesn't matter as SBS is currently showing something like 8 hours of the Indian Pacific train journey, surely that's got to be the future of tv. smile.gif
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Posted on: Jan 10 2019, 08:40 PM


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"Beijing has announced it has deployed intermediate ballistic missiles to the country's north-west region, saying the weapons have the capacity to destroy US ships entering disputed waters in the South China Sea....


...Late last year, Chinese Navy Rear Admiral Luo Yuan suggested Beijing could sink two US carriers in a bid to deter the US from entering the South China Sea.

Admiral Lou was quoted in Taiwanese media as stating that destroying two carrier would kill around 10,000 US personnel, claiming that this would be the best way to hurt the US as 'America is most afraid of the death of its people.'"

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-10/chin...-ships/10705594

I don't think the Chinese are that stupid or ill-informed. The US came into existence on the battlefield and ever since has been a warrior nation, having fought against just about every major nation, in a steady procession of wars. They are not "most afraid" of the death of their countrymen, rather that is what riles them the most. They have tens of thousands of battle tested soldiers, and hundreds of senior officers that know how to fight and win battles and wars. Pretty much all of their military technology has been on-the-job tested and they still possess overwhelming military force. Mao thought he could overpower the US in the Korean War by inflicting maximum casualties on them but he was wrong. The US public opinion against the Vietnam War turned as much from the pointless loss of Vietnamese lives as American lives. And of course the attack on Pearl Harbour by the Japanese turned American public opinion from a disinterest in getting involved in the war to being fully in favour of it.

In contrast the last time the Chinese faced an enemy force was the Sino-Vietnam war in the late 70's in which the battle-hardened Vietnamese belted the snot out of the Chinese forces (though strategically Deng achieved what he set out to do) and Vietnam was only acting defensively. Not saying that the Chinese would be a walk-over or are not an impressive military power, but I do think it is naive to think the Americans would turn chicken.
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Posted on: Jan 10 2019, 06:14 PM


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Reuters has put out a list of announced investments by major car companies in electric and hybrid vehicles and batteries. Totals US$300b, about half of it to be spent in China.

https://graphics.reuters.com/AUTOS-INVESTME...B3HD/index.html
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Posted on: Jan 9 2019, 10:34 PM


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J, Don't forget your baseball mitt as the bash brothers seem to be hitting some form. smile.gif
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Posted on: Jan 7 2019, 11:55 AM


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Yeah, J, but the main thing is that they are all good blokes and they get along with each other ... The worry is that the selectors will give the current bunch one last chance to prove themselves against the Sri Lankans rather than blood the players that have the technique and statistics to warrant being taken on the Ashes tour.
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Posted on: Jan 1 2019, 11:25 AM


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So, Mick, you think the merger with Doray will make Silver Lake a better company not just a bigger company?

They're getting some promising hits in some of the old Integra ground they acquired so maybe they don't need Doray so much. I always wished Chris Cairns had not been so timid when he was running Integra and the current Silver Lake management is showing that he actually had plenty to work with. I can only guess that the plan is to absorb Doray so as to get Silver Lake to have a big enough market cap as to get the index funds and institutions interested.
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Posted on: Dec 30 2018, 05:52 PM


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All round shemozzle imo.

Rubbish MCG pitch again. The Indians deserved the thumping victory but surely much was decided by the toss of the coin.
They need to drop pretty much all the batters but they can't. Finch and the 2 Marshes have to go, should have gone for the SCG match but must go for the Sri Lankan games. Seems common agreement that Renshaw and Burns need to be readied for the Ashes series so they have to come in and also probably Maxwell

Our much vaunted bowling attack is underperforming. Gary and Pat Cummins are value but Hazlewood just has to start regularly taking bags of wickets or Cummins should open and perhaps look to Hazlewood or someone elsee as the first change bowler. Starc is a strike bowler but as Mitch Johnson commented during the Perth game, he just has to step up and be the leader.

And whichever official booted a few of the crowd out of the old Bay 13 for the chant "show us your visas" needs to be sacked. How is that even close to being racist? The Barmy Army go on about Aussies being convicts, I suppose the Aussies go on about bars of soap to the pommies, why is it racist to joke about a bunch of migrants being migrants.

Our cricketing world seems to have had a total collapse in confidence.
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Posted on: Dec 27 2018, 07:20 PM


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nip - JohnR at macrobusiness posted this link earlier today.

https://twitter.com/OddStats/status/1078033224801177607

It seems that yesterday's jump is in less than salubrious company. Also if the plunge protection team was to hit the market the day after Christmas would likely give them the biggest bang per buck possible (due to really low trading levels).

Let's see how things pan out when everyone is back at work.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Dec 20 2018, 09:04 PM


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sad.gif

(but in good news Australian Super has taken a 5% holding in Orocobre).
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Posted on: Dec 20 2018, 09:48 AM


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"What a lot of people don't know is, in his high school years he got sent to a military prep school. Upon graduation it was expected the graduands would go on to become an officer and a gentleman at one of their fine academies. He instead chose to go into business. But his buddies are now generals sitting opposite him for dinner."

That's a nice bit of rewriting of history. Trump was sent to "military prep school" because his old man was concerned young Donald was starting to play up. The New York Military Academy was a nursery for officers and gentlemen about as much as the Salvation Army is: the primary purpose of the former was to prepare kids for academic success. (and also, pretty much anyone who has read anything about Donald Trump knows he got sent to boarding school by his parents).
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Posted on: Dec 18 2018, 03:42 PM


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Yep, agree. I hope Gary got man of the match.
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Posted on: Dec 17 2018, 06:26 PM


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Could be Canberra's first multistorey cathouse, a new take on serviced apartments. rolleyes.gif Seriously what with the number of nail and eyebrow and massage shops that are filling in all the empty retail space in various shopping centres in the ACT we are probably not that far from going there (though I am constantly amazed by how busy even out of the way nail salons are, not only in Canberra but in rural towns).


  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Dec 17 2018, 12:55 PM


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Interesting, nip, thanks for that (is it from the soon-to-be-sold-or-closed-down Canberra Times?). My reaction:

1. they are just mimicking a Hong Kong fad (no doubt attempting to attract Chinese students &/or investors).
2. Those so-called micro-apartments are not so squeezy - micro apartments or nano units in HK come in at about 12 sq metres, that is 60% the size of even the smallest of the units in the Canberra proposal.
3. so sad, even in Honkers the fad of the micro apartment seems to have passed. Since this linked article was published last month one of those Tuen Mun projects mentioned have stopped its marketing campaign after they sold only 3 of the 150 units that they had put on the market.



https://beta.scmp.com/business/article/2175...-last-seen-2016

Also the ANU has said that they have placed a limit on the number of international students they will enroll in future years. What with the thousands of dogbox units coming onto the market in the next couple of years this proposed project could be answering yesterday's problems (a couple of years ago the ANU block booked a whole motel in Lyneham for a year to help alleviate a shortage of student accommodation but since then numerous student residential colleges have been completed).
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Dec 15 2018, 11:31 AM


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Every year Barry Ritholtz posts a spray about the dangers of paying any attention to professional serial prognosticators, and it's that time of year again.

https://ritholtz.com/2018/12/fun-with-forec...g-2018-edition/

The bitcoin predictions are a giggle seeing how it is down under US$4k a pop at the moment but seeing I've never heard of any of those people it may be that they were fringe players just trying to get some attention.


And as far as I'm concerned Peter Schiff totally blew any credibility in 2007/08 when he picked the crash but then based all his predictive recommendations on the greenback crashing, all in with no hedging. Anyone that took his advice would have been smashed. As far as I know he's never owned up to it: he takes credit for calling the crash of course but not getting the greenback totally wrong. That he has rarely been right in the last decade also suggests he is probably not the best analyst to follow.

But that is a weakness for these regular columns by Barry Ritholtz. He only highlights the bloopers, not the clean hits. For instance I am pretty sure that lots of analysts who looked at the bitcoin market closely thought it likely that it would crash. And I know of no gold company that has developed a project based on gold moving to US$10k / oz.


The other weakness with Ritholtz's article is that it does not point out that most / many people read what the prognosticators say to look at the arguments they use to reach their predictions not necessarily the predictions themselves. Jim Rogers has been focused on the growing size and influence of China for more than a decade, Marc Faber has flagged weaknesses in the Chinese financial system for just as long. That China is not the dominant player that Rogers predicted and that China has not had a major crash that Faber predicted does not mean reading their analyses was a waste of effort.
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Posted on: Dec 13 2018, 06:08 PM


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The Washington Post is running with the story with a major article on its website. All over red rover. Trying to impose a media blackout these days is as effective as having an ashtray on a motorbike.
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Posted on: Dec 13 2018, 12:46 PM


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Mick - I am not sure whether merely posting links from overseas sites would be a breach of the court order preventing publication of any information about the court decision. The linked article is NOT about the clergyman and the court decision earlier this week and seems to be okay to post as it is an ABC Australia article.

_______________________________________________________

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-13/geor...dinals/10614092
_________________________________________________________

Funny story about how a Google executive had to explain to US Senators why if you searched for images of "stupid" the front results page was mostly of images of Donald Trump.
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Posted on: Dec 13 2018, 07:10 AM


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nip - no, if it's true (and both the Oz and the Age are commenting about a major court decision earlier this week which they cannot discuss) it is a biggy. Not sure that it matters but I'll not post the person's name or the crime he was convicted of but it is to do with a senior clergyman and child abuse. Apparently the block is in place because there is expected to be more court action, whether it's an appeal or a new case, due in early next year.


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Posted on: Dec 11 2018, 10:12 AM


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Not sure where exactly that ACCC has been during these years of bankers running amok but the good news is that once the ACCC get onto a case they go in boots and all (unlike the dandies at ASIC and APRA). So they reckon that once again the bankers didn't let a good crisis go to waste. When APRA insisted that bankers restrict interest only loans to 30% of the home loans they issued going forward the banks took the opportunity to act in concert and increase the interest rates on existing interest only home loans. By so doing the banks pocketed in excess of one billion bucks of windfall profit in just the last year.

Hopefully the ACCC takes 'em to the cleaners.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-11/exis...s-accc/10604314
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Posted on: Dec 8 2018, 01:48 PM


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Decided to dip my toe in the water and watch a bit of Channel 7 cricket. Not the best day, what with all the rain delays. But did see Michael Slater conduct a live interview with someone in the crowd that caught a ball ... came back later to hear Michael Slater and the Chris Gale journo talking about how well one of the Indian players can dance and how it's just fun to watch him celebrating scoring a century. They could have gone with an interview of a cricketer who caught a ball and they could have talked about why that Indian player was so happy but hell why talk about cricket...

So yeah nah, it's pretty obvious that Channel 7 intends to My-Kitchen-Rules test cricket. Can't wait to see interviews of some sheila who had a crush on the GOAT in primary school and how one of the player's dad is suffering from high blood pressure which puts a terrible strain on his relationship with one of his work-mates.

(of all the Channel 9 commentators why would Channel 7 save Michael Slater? He was by some margin the lightest weight at Channel 9, oh wait ...).
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Posted on: Dec 7 2018, 04:39 PM


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Or ... Trumpy has the pips with GM for closing down a number of manufacturing plants in the US after Trumpy claimed he had fixed the US car making industry. I find it doesn't pay to overthink what motivates Mr Trump, he is not cerebral he is reflex: you slight him, he slights you back.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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Posted on: Dec 6 2018, 05:34 PM


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What an excellent day of cricket, very competitive, lots of good performances. Great to see Hazlewood do damage early on.

Listened to a fair bit on ABC radio: great team of Jim Maxwell, Andrew Moore, Harsha Bhogle, Alison Mitchell, Ed Cowan, Jason Gillespie and Captain Grumpy. Recently I was talking to a bloke who lives in the same neighbourhood as Allan Border and apparently AB is a lovely chap in real life. Very sensible comments from him. I reckon Andrew Moore is the best NRL game caller going around and he has done a fine job today as a cricket caller.

... and to top it off, Pat Cummins throws down the wickets. Great stuff, really surprising.
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Posted on: Dec 5 2018, 09:20 PM


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Yeah the big miners do often arrive at the party just as the beer runs out.


Interesting that Rio is getting back into borate mining, if only by accident. They had a significant borate / borax operation in Argentina but considered the borax market to be in a long-term downturn so they sold it off to Orocobre (which is mainly a lithium producer from brine). To date it has not been a good buy for Orocobre so Rio got that one right.

Speaking of Orocobre, they recently finally announced that a final investment decision had been made for the stage 2 expansion of their Olaroz lithium brine operation (they hold about 66% in a jv). They intend to produce about 25,000 tonnes a year at the expansion plant.
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Posted on: Dec 5 2018, 09:05 PM


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"Ch 7 coverage ...... we await with bated breath !!"

I'm sure Bwuccy will make it speeeciaal (though hopefully he will not even be part of the commentary team). Gilly's good but Warne's a bore. I'll be sticking to the ABC radio call as much as possible.
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Posted on: Dec 4 2018, 07:30 PM


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As has been pointed out elsewhere, why would anyone pay to hear what the LNP thinks they might do regarding the banking royal commission findings when everyone knows that will be the job of the incoming Labor government. But yeah obscene that the mob that 27 times knocked back the idea of a banking royal commission being needed are now trying to profit from the rc's existence. There is a saying: "never let a good crisis go to waste".
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Posted on: Dec 1 2018, 10:19 AM


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Mags - it gets worse - Ken Henry is on the board of dirctors of the ASX. Gamekeeper or poacher?
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Posted on: Nov 30 2018, 05:59 PM


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Mick - nothing like that will happen here if Morrison and Frydenberg have any say in the matter. Even before he was interviewed by the Royal Commission the boss at APRA, Wayne Byers, had his tenure extended by the Hungarian, as if to warn Kenneth Hayne that Byers is a protected species. Nothing like pre-empting the RC's findings.

I watched much of his interview by Michael Hodge QC today. Byers to me came across as shifty, cunning, sly, and in the quietest of voices Hodge demolished his credibility and reputation.

Regarding the fees for no service scandal Byers regularly asserted that actions and decisions were made by APRA in 2015 and Hodge regularly pointed out that the RC had specifically asked for documentation witnessing the what and the when of these actions and decisions but that APRA had no such documentation. Byers attempted to pass it off as (1) the APRA officials would not be expected to commit to the record such information (as if!) (2) APRA had assumed that ASIC was already on that case (but apparently no-one in APRA checked with ASIC) (3) APRA thought the problem was just isolated gremlins in the financial institutions' systems and (4) that it was a matter for APRA's operational staff alone. Commiss Hayne pointed out that this single issue will cost some individual finanical institutions hundreds of millions of dollars in remediation and Michael Hodge pointed out that the issue was of such size as to bring into question the very survival of affected financial institutions (Byers jumped on that comment, saying that no financial institution was at risk of failing due to the fees for no service matter, but the point is that having numerous industry players each skimming hundreds of millions of dollars from customers could hardly be waived away as isolated gremlins in the system).

I thought Ken Henry has proven to be shameless for not resigning after his outrageous performance earlier in the week. The same now goes for Wayne Byers as far as I'm concerned. And this current government is attempting to protect him!!

Anyway all we can do is wait until 1 Feb next year and see what Kenneth Hayne's assessment is.
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Posted on: Nov 28 2018, 11:56 AM


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Surprise, surprise, our little mate, Ken Henry, was a member of the board at the Reserve Bank from 2001 to 2011 (due to him being Secretary to the Treasury for that period). There were no consequences for those in charge of the Reserve Bank and its subsidiaries, hopefully Ken Henry is not allowed to get off scott free for the shemozzle that has been NAB under his chairmanship.
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Posted on: Nov 27 2018, 03:05 PM


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I thought Ken Henry was about the worst performance I've seen at the rc. So full of himself, so much pontificating and condescension, so much indifference to his duties as a board member. He comes with the arrogance of being a long-term senior advisor and policy maker to numerous governments: he is our version of Sir Humphrey Appleby. The very fact that he has not yet resigned as NAB chairman pretty much says it all.

Having said that I think that for all her brilliance and competence Rowena Orr does seem to struggle a bit in questioning alpha males, last week Matt Comyn of the CBA and now today Ken Henry. I thought she allowed Ken Henry a little bit too much lattitude to obfuscate around answering questions, even allowing him to get away with snide remarks about both her and Commissioner Hayne. She did stand him up one time to give a direct answer to one of her questions, and he noticeably bristled at her impertinence.

Martin North and others have speculated that were the housing crash to get bad enough at least one of the big four banks would likely fold, with both Westpac and Netbank being the popular favourites. Having seen Ken Henry's lousy performance today I'd steer well clear of NAB as long as he is in the picture (saw some talk that the ALP are actually keen to bring him back to lead the commonwealth public service after May).
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