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Gold, Gold Companies worth buying
Tylergold
post Posted: Nov 1 2008, 07:26 AM
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In reply to: Tylergold on Saturday 01/11/08 06:02am

edit: found this on gold based on merrill lynch

Gold could reach $1,500 an ounce, since the worldwide plans to bail out the global financial industry are certain to fuel inflation, analysts led by Francisco Blanch at Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. wrote in a research report.

The Merrill Lynch analysts also predicted that oil would reach $150 a barrel.

In the research note released earlier this week, the analysts said “the unintended consequence of the ongoing financial bailout will be inflationary pressures to the commodity markets.”

The analysts provided no timetable for their predictions.

The $700 billion U.S. bailout – plus the billions of dollars in capital infusions that have been put in place by governments and central banks all over the world – will be highly inflationary, analysts say. Historically, this type of move has been very bad for the U.S. dollar and highly bullish for oil prices.

“This is a very interesting projection,” said Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald. “I have no idea what they’re basing their numbers on. But I certainly wouldn’t dismiss it based on everything I know about global trends, and my own proprietary calculations – which continue to suggest far higher prices for oil and hard assets than even Merrill is predicting.”

While Fitz-Gerald said that doesn’t mean there won’t be a continued near-term drop in gold and oil prices, he continues to believe the long-term outlook is for much-higher prices.

Currently, Fitz-Gerald has a multi-year target price of $225 a barrel for oil prices.

Typically, Fitz-Gerald says, analysts put a more-specific timetable on such predictions. But the unprecedented worldwide capital infusions that are part and parcel of the central banks’ bailout plans are dramatically skewing what are normally relatively predictable calculations, he said.

Since peaking at an all-time record of $1,032 an ounce on St. Patrick’s Day, gold has seen its price skid about 19%. Gold futures tumbled more than 4% Thursday to their lowest level in a month, as nervous investors sold futures contracts to raise cash, Marketwatch reported. Gold for December delivery fell $34.50, or 4.1%, to end at $804.50 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest closing level since Sept. 17. Earlier, it had fallen more than 5% to $791 an ounce.

Some hedge funds were forced to liquidate their positions to cover losses in stocks and other markets, economists at research firm Action Economics told MarketWatch.

"For the moment, the weight of the deep funk felt in the global markets is keeping gold on the defensive, while would-be buyers … find more comfort sitting on the piles of cash," Jon Nadler, a senior analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers, told the financial news service.

Crude oil fell below $70 a barrel, reaching its lowest level since June 2007, and gasoline prices tumbled after a U.S. Department of Energy report showed that stockpiles advanced twice as much as forecast, Bloomberg News reported.

Crude oil for November delivery fell $4.37 a barrel, or 5.9%, to reach $70.17 a barrel, at midday Thursday on the NYMEX. The “black gold” fell as low as $68.57 a barrel, the lowest since June 27 of last year. Prices are down 20% from a year ago. Crude oil peaked at $147.27 on July 11.

Oil prices also dropped on doubts that the bank rescue plan will bolster global economic growth – and with it, fuel use. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) moved the meeting it had planned for November up to Oct. 24 after the oil-price decline.

“The DOE numbers just added to the downward pressure on the oil market,” Brad Samples, a commodity analyst for Summit Energy Inc. in Louisville, K.Y., told Bloomberg. “The weak economy is translating into rising inventories because nobody wants to burn the stuff.”

Money Morning Contributing Editor Martin Hutchinson – who last October correctly predicted that gold would make a run for record highs – this spring said that gold could reach $1,500 an ounce. At the time, Hutchinson listed three factors, one of which – related to the bailout plans – has moved front and center:

Monetary policy: More than for any other investment, gold’s price depends primarily on the world’s monetary policy. When monetary policy is loose, as it was in the 1970s, gold prices soar. When it is tight, as in the 1980s, prices decline sharply. With the global bailout in place, monetary policy is about as loose as it’s ever been.
Global Supply and Demand: For most commodities, price rises have an effect on supply and demand; a higher price increases supply and reduces demand, in "price elasticity." With oil, for example, a 10% rise in price reduces demand by about 1% to 1.5%, meaning that oil has a price elasticity of 0.1 to 0.15. But oil is priced in dollars, and when the dollar drops, OPEC tends to boost oil prices to keep its revenue steady. The flood of dollars the global bailout plans are going to send washing through the financial system won’t be good for the greenback – meaning the dollar-based price of oil can only go higher. That will more than offset any decline in demand in the near term; in the long run, growing economies in such markets as China, India and other emergent markets will create millions of new consumers who will demand luxuries ranging from jewelry to automobiles.
The upshot: Global demand for oil and gold will escalate – as will their prices.

Comparison with past peaks: If gold had increased in price since 1997 by the same percentage as world dollar reserves, it would currently be trading at around $1,280 per ounce, Hutchinson says. And the current speculative appeal of gold, compared to its inactivity 10 years ago, suggests it could go higher than this: The 1980 gold price peak of $875 per ounce intraday is equivalent to more than $2,200 per ounce when inflation is taken into account, he said recently.

 
Tylergold
post Posted: Nov 1 2008, 06:02 AM
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which of those do you prefer and when should i get into them like lihir i think around 1.80

 
flower
post Posted: Oct 31 2008, 11:31 PM
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QUOTE (Tylergold @ Friday 31/10/08 10:04pm)


Tylergold--Best I can do!!
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4......GOLD - Gold bullion: This basically an Exchange Traded Fund, as such does not have the same leverage as a pure unhedged gold miner. Has no possible upside exposure to new discoveries through drilling, no exposure to take overs. Seems to move inversley to LGL, especially when gold jumps. Not conversant with currency fluctuations effects on it. Presuming you mean the ETF rather than gold bars.

1....LGL - Lihir Gold. Unhedged. Has one of the largest gold reserve deposits in the world, as such is probably the most likely ASX Gold producer to get taken over, currently appears to be running well, tracks spot gold accurately. Will be producing 1 million ounces 2009. Costs and Sales mostly in USD. Highly liquid. Unaffected basically by AUD.

2......NCM - Newcrest Mining. Unhedged. Is a dual Copper/Gold stock. Which way is copper likely to head? Has ongoing problems at Telfer mine. Very liquid. Dont know about the AUD effect.


3......NEM - Newmont Mining. Unhedged. (presuming you mean NEM.AX and not NEM.N) NEM.AX suffers from extremely low liquidity. Newmont likely to be doing the taking over, not being taken over itself! Newmont 2nd largest gold miner in the world. No AUD effect.



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Tylergold
post Posted: Oct 31 2008, 10:04 PM
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if i have maybe 1000-2000 dollars what do you suggest it oon out of these shares
GOLD - Gold bullion
LGL - Lihir Gold
NCM - Newcrest Mining
NEM - Newmont Mining

if you suggest your opinion please supply analysis fundamentals or trends but i would like balance sheetrs if you have. i am looking at at least 1 year unless the stocks spikes heaps like +50%.

I have a feeling gold will definitely go up in USD but i think our dollar will get back to 80 cents how will that impact the 4 shares i have listed.

thanks

Tyler

 
flower
post Posted: Oct 9 2008, 10:11 AM
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QUOTE (triage @ Tuesday 05/08/08 10:02am)

Which Gold Stock?

Notice the leverage disparity between GOLD AX and the straight gold producers shares
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Code Name +/- % > +/- $ Bid Ask Open High Low Last Volume
NEM.AX NEWMONT-CDI:10 19.11% $0.86 $5.36 $5.42 $5.20 $5.42 $5.20 $5.36 189,605
SBM.AX ST. BARBARA 17.02% $0.04 $0.27 $0.275 $0.255 $0.285 $0.255 $0.275 4,102,526
CNT.AX CENTAMIN EGYPT 15.00% $0.09 $0.69 $0.735 $0.66 $0.69 $0.65 $0.69 43,909
NCM.AX NEWCREST MINING 14.44% $3.35 $26.45 $26.55 $26.11 $26.88 $25.93 $26.55 1,355,423
DOM.AX DOMINION MINING 12.70% $0.31 $2.71 $2.75 $2.65 $2.75 $2.57 $2.75 206,226
LGL.AX LIHIR GOLD 12.29% $0.29 $2.64 $2.65 $2.59 $2.66 $2.58 $2.65 12,372,041
BDG.AX BENDIGO MIN 10.00% $0.015 $0.15 $0.165 $0.155 $0.165 $0.15 $0.165 155,495
AVO.AX AVOCA RESOURCES 9.14% $0.17 $2.02 $2.03 $1.96 $2.08 $1.96 $2.03 280,100
SGX.AX SINO GOLD MINING 8.60% $0.40 $5.05 $5.07 $4.81 $5.05 $4.81 $5.05 558,436
RMS.AX RAMELIUS RSC 8.20% $0.05 $0.65 $0.655 $0.63 $0.66 $0.62 $0.66 113,649
GOLD.AX GOLD BULL RED.PR 7.89% $9.80 $133.95 $134.00 $132.40 $134.00 $132.40 $134.00 25,454
KCN.AX KINGSGATE CONSOL 5.37% $0.21 $4.10 $4.12 $4.10 $4.18 $4.10 $4.12 104,709
CTO.AX CITIGOLD CORP 2.27% $0.005 $0.225 $0.235 $0.22 $0.24 $0.22 $0.225 303,262



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Combining Fundamental comments with Fundamental charts.
 
triage
post Posted: Aug 5 2008, 10:02 AM
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In reply to: lexus_sky on Monday 04/08/08 09:53pm

lexus

Good read, great find, thanks for putting the link up. smile.gif

The report seems positive for bullion, perhaps once we get through the next month or so.



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 


lexus_sky
post Posted: Aug 4 2008, 09:53 PM
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In reply to: triage on Thursday 31/07/08 01:24pm

Said 'Thanks' for this post: ydoidoit  Alburnia  
 
triage
post Posted: Jul 31 2008, 01:24 PM
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Interesting comments today from the CEO of Ramelius, Smok'n Joe Houldsworth (who sounds far from smok'n), about the state of the gold industry. At the end of the BRR interview he appears to give a fairly dire prognosis, with the suggestion that a number of low grade marginal producers are about to hit the wall and that he hopes that Ramelius will be one of the last left standing. Basically it seems that rising costs are starting to overwhelm the locals (with insufficient compensation from the price of gold).

http://www.brr.com.au/event/48816/producti...new-discoveries

Maybe gold mining is now much like textiles in that it is an industry best placed in low cost developing nations.



--------------------
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
flower
post Posted: Jul 5 2008, 06:31 PM
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QUOTE (cy7 @ Saturday 05/07/08 05:50pm)

CY7--thanks for pointing out something that I cant even claim as a typo, of course MON not DOM. Yes thats the article.

Going back to the diesel issue, and the production costs of gold miners, IMHO particular attention should be paid to your chosen unhedged gold mining stocks to trade with when this set of Q reports are published by end July. Some very nasty production cost shocks await the uninformed. Its basicaly production costs and hedge books that killed that list.

What we need to find are stocks that make about 100% gross mining profit, ie like LGL have , are taking active steps to widen a one mine policy, like merging with Equigold and Ballarat, upgrading plants which in the case of LGL will drive production costs down by $80 an ounce, and again in LGL's case spending up big to build their own geo thermal power station that saves them $50m in fuel oil, and which now supplies 75% of their total power requirements, culminating in producing 1million ounces of gold pa after 2010, very profitably. (Mind you working in an ex volcano cant be a barrel of fun)



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Combining Fundamental comments with Fundamental charts.
 
cy7
post Posted: Jul 5 2008, 05:50 PM
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In reply to: flower on Saturday 05/07/08 12:23pm

http://www.afr.com/home/viewer.aspx?EDP://...h+over+for+some

Hi Flower,

I presume this is the article you are referring to ---

Just one query --- I imagine you meant MON and not DOM when talking of production failures.

Regards, cy7

“1. Deep Yellow, SGW, Giants Reef, CRS, BMA, Gleneagle, DOM, Bendigo, NCM's Telfer mine, Bedall Resources make depressing reading as gold production failures. Telfer MAY make it, but its a high cost operation.”



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