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Energy Sector, Your Views Please!
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 1 2019, 06:10 PM
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Annual Energy Outlook 2019 with projections to 2050
January 2019
U.S. Energy Information Administration Office of Energy Analysis
U.S. Department of Energy
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/aeo2019.pdf



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 25 2018, 02:50 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Sep 24 2018, 09:17 PM


China says 'huge potential' for Australian LNG industry from US trade war
extract
QUOTE
Shanghai | China says there is "huge potential" for Australia's liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry from its trade war with the United States after imposing tariffs on rival American imports of the important energy source being encouraged by Beijing to clean up pollution.

China has imposed import tariffs on American LNG imports as part of its latest $US60 billion worth of tariffs in response to US President Donald Trump's latest round of tariffs.

A senior Chinese trade official on Tuesday suggested this could benefit Australia and other countries exporting LNG to China.


read more - https://www.afr.com/news/world/asia/china-s...20180925-h15tp5



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: Pendragon  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 24 2018, 09:17 PM
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Article doesn't mention the country China sourced the LNG from

China imports 4.71m tonnes of liquefied natural gas in August
Xinhua | Updated: 2018-09-23 13:5
[quote]BEIJING - China imported 4.71 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in August, up 51.5 percent year on year, the country's customs authority said Sunday.

Total LNG imports in the first eight months reached 32.63 million tonnes, up 47.8 percent year on year, according to the General Administration of Customs.

China surpassed the Republic of Korea to become the world's second-largest importer of LNG in 2017, according to IHS Markit, a global marketing information company.

China's imports of natural gas have grown to meet increasing domestic consumption, primarily driven by environmental policies to replace coal-fired electricity generation.

An industry report says, the country is likely to surpass Japan to become the world's largest natural gas importer by 2019, with imports expected to reach 171 billion cubic meters by 2023, mostly LNG.[/quote]
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201809/23/W...cc775e7b8f.html



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jun 22 2018, 01:24 PM
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy - June 2018
https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corpor...full-report.pdf

BP Energy Outlook - 2018
https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corpor...utlook-2018.pdf





--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: Pendragon  
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 14 2017, 05:20 PM
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World Energy Outlook 2017
https://www.iea.org/weo2017/

QUOTE
Four large-scale shifts in the global energy system set the scene for the World Energy Outlook 2017:
- the rapid deployment and falling costs of clean energy technologies,
- the growing electrification of energy,
- the shift to a more services-oriented economy and a cleaner energy mix in China, and
- the resilience of shale gas and tight oil in the United States.

These shifts come at a time when traditional distinctions between energy producers and consumers are being blurred and a new group of major developing countries, led by India, moves towards centre stage. How these developments play out and interact is the story of this year's Outlook

QUOTE
China will account for a third of new wind and solar power installations and 40 per cent of electric vehicle investments up to 2040. Meanwhile, its coal use peaked four years ago and it will cede its role as the driver of global oil demand to India after 2025.

Underscoring the shift is a maturing economy that is moving away from energy-intensive industry, and government policies aimed at cleaning up air pollution that causes almost 2 million premature deaths a year.... Falling costs of renewables also play a role, as solar is expected to become China's cheapest source of new electricity additions, surpassing natural gas by 2020 and coal by 2030.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 22 2017, 02:19 PM
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World Energy Investment 2017
http://www.iea.org/publications/wei2017/?u...campaign=buffer



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 


triage
post Posted: Aug 13 2017, 08:58 AM
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Here's some analysis of hydrocarbon demand in the US. The author argues that overall hydrocarbon demand there has peaked about a decade ago and is unlikely to bounce back. He breaks his analysis into coal - he describes coal as being in "superdecline" which I take to mean a structural decline - oil - he says that oil demand has been in a long-term holding pattern - and gas, which he notes is picking up, given how much and how cheap it is in the US (what with fracking and horizontal drilling).

He relies heavily on a point that I've not seen get much emphasis: that much of the "fleet" in the US that uses coal, which I take to mean power stations and systems used to tranport coal, is reaching the end of its economic life and so that infrastructure needs to be replaced, whether it be replaced with a coal based system or a system that uses an alternative energy source, and that on a head to head basis coal loses out. He provides no evidence that this is the case. He says that wind and solar energy is becoming increasingly competitive but gas based systems are more resilient to this competition than coal, partly because the gas "fleet" is much newer and so does not have to be replaced (unlike the coal "fleet").

https://medium.com/@gregormacdonald/us-foss...rn-18dca64427a0

As it happens I used to read Gregor MacDonald's energy blog about a decade ago and at the time I thought his analysis was always more insightful than just about any other's.

There is some evidence that coal is similarly affected even in China and India. Building power stations is a bit like the quote about ice hockey: you skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it is now. In a decade will coal be competitive with gas and wind and solar? Probably not, so why would you invest in a coal power station now.

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2017/08/wa...and-doom-adani/

PS. the first couple of commentators on that mb blog are regulars who take the piss, newbies often mistake their comments as genuine.



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

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nipper
post Posted: Aug 1 2017, 04:06 PM
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QUOTE
US firm APR Energy says it will be able to provide critical electricity grid stability to South Australia by 01 Dec after being chosen to supply a two-step fix for a fragile power grid with a new fast-start power plant initially powered by diesel fuel for the first two years.

South Australian Premier Jay Weatherill announced on Tuesday the state government would buy nine new GE TM2500 aero-derivative turbines through APR Energy to deliver up to 276 megawatts of generation to the grid should extra power be needed.
you don't think Wetherill is being a bit precious/ ideological?? Diesel, but not gas

... ah, but reading on - looks like deisel, then
"the hybrid turbines will then shift to an un-named separate permanent location where they will run on gas." Methinks there is a problem, Houston



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
flower
post Posted: Sep 15 2014, 06:34 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Nov 8 2012, 05:00 PM

QUOTE
interesting paper - a bit old (June 2012) but some interesting stuff

https://www2.blackrock.com/webcore/litServi...ntId=1111166832
QUOTE A glut of cheap US gas from shale rock has taken the world by surprise, and caused even seasoned energy analysts to completely redo their forecasts.

The global ramifications are huge. If – and this is a big if – the newfound energy can find its way to market, the US could become an energy exporter by 2030.


This publication discusses the boom's impact on energy prices, producers and services. The picture is not simple and things rarely happen in a straight line. This is true for energy as much as anything else

Hi nipper, fancy that -----two years have passed and suddenly observers are getting concerned about the downsides of a stronger USD, growing US shale oil production, and slowing global growth, which will not be helped if the FED really gets serious about raising US rates at the FOMC meeting starting tomorrow US time.

The flipside to any "backing off" raising US interest rates SHOULD be a WEAKENING USD and STRENGHTENING Global commodity prices, including our Energy Sector.

Thursday morning our time might make for very interesting trading in ASX energy stocks
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image


 




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Combining Fundamental comments with Fundamental charts.
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 8 2012, 05:00 PM
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interesting paper - a bit old (June 2012) but some interesting stuff

https://www2.blackrock.com/webcore/litServi...ntId=1111166832
QUOTE
A glut of cheap US gas from shale rock has taken the world by surprise, and caused even seasoned energy analysts to completely redo their forecasts.

The global ramifications are huge. If – and this is a big if – the newfound energy can find its way to market, the US could become an energy exporter by 2030.


This publication discusses the boom's impact on energy prices, producers and services. The picture is not simple and things rarely happen in a straight line. This is true for energy as much as anything else




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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