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Iron Ore, The Iron Ore Industry
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 9 2019, 12:10 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Feb 2 2019, 10:26 AM

Goldman and its biggest critic agree on iron ore, finally…
Bloomberg News | about 6 hours ago
extract
QUOTE
Vale’s troubles began in late January when a tailings dam collapsed, killing at least 150 people and leveling part of a town. The company announced it’s decommissioning dams similar to the one involved in the fatal accident — a move that would cut annual output by 40 million tons. The company has said it plans to offset some of the output loss by ramping up operations elsewhere.

Its fate took a turn for the worse after a court order forced Vale to halt operations at its Brucutu mine, crimping production by another 30 million tons and prompting the company to declare force majeure on some of its contracts. On Friday, Brazil’s National Mining Agency ordered the evacuation of about 500 people near the company’s idled Gongo Soco mine after its consulting firm declined to vouch for the integrity of a tailings dam.

Goldman isn’t the only bank predicting a shortfall. In January, even before Vale said it’s halting operations in Brucutu, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. analysts were already forecasting a shortfall of 10 million tons this year, revising their earlier outlook for a 15 million ton surplus.

“In the near term, the significant disruption to Brazilian supply and the uncertainties associated with it will likely keep iron ore prices elevated and volatile as supply elsewhere cannot adjust quickly enough to offset the shortages,” Goldman analysts including Currie and Hui Shan said in a note dated Feb. 7.

(By Luzi Ann Javier and Joe Deaux)

http://www.mining.com/web/goldman-biggest-...on-ore-finally/

Hundreds evacuated in Brazil on fears over mining dams safety
http://www.mining.com/hundreds-evacuated-b...her-vales-dams/



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Feb 7 2019, 03:49 AM
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Iron ore prices could be heading back to $US100 a tonne, in the short term at least, according to the Commonwealth Bank. Iron ore has rallied almost 40 per cent since November.
QUOTE
Key points:

- Iron ore prices are heading back to levels last seen in the 2014 boom
- A combination of tight supply and demand from China and India could see prices hold at around $US80/tonne
- A $US10/tonne rise adds $1.9b to the budget bottom line this year and $3.6b next year.

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-06/i...502?pfmredir=sm



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Feb 2 2019, 10:26 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jan 29 2019, 08:31 PM

Is the IO rally over - Shorts have been piling into FMG, RIO and BHP in recent days.

Bloomberg article is of the same opinion - several reasons given - see link for full details plus charts
This iron ore rally is living on borrowed time
Bloomberg Opinion | about 5 hours ago |
extract
QUOTE
Vale’s prize asset, the S11D mine, is still running at barely more than half the full annual-production capacity of 90 million tons that it should hit next year, giving plenty of scope to make up the shortfall from other pits.The more important issue is what’s happening on the demand side, though. The Baltic Dry Index is a frequently watched measure of shipping costs, heavily influenced by the price of leasing the Capesize bulk ships that transport coal and iron ore. On Friday it fell to its lowest level in nearly two years, down almost 40 percent in the space of a month.


QUOTE
The more likely scenario is that prices trying to scale the hill of shrinking supply are ignoring the gulf of falling demand. This rally is living on borrowed time.

http://www.mining.com/web/iron-ore-rally-l...-borrowed-time/



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 29 2019, 08:31 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jan 29 2019, 02:22 PM

Australian iron ore miners' prices set to jump following Vale disaster
By Luke Housego
Updated 29 Jan 2019 — 7:50 PM,
first published at 5:47 PM

QUOTE
BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue are among the Australian iron ore producers that may reap higher prices if Brazilian authorities order a halt to iron ore miner Vale's operations in response to the fatal Feijao dam collapse in which 65 people have been confirmed dead so far.


QUOTE
The fallout from the recent dam collapse also could affect the ongoing settlement negotiations with the Samarco joint venture, which is equally owned by BHP and Vale.

read more - https://www.afr.com/business/mining/iron-or...20190129-h1al9s



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 29 2019, 02:22 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jan 29 2019, 01:53 PM

Vale's SP has taken a beating - Vale analysts see charges, lawsuits, halts undermining stock
Bloomberg News | about 11 hours ago |

read more - http://www.mining.com/web/vale-analysts-se...ermining-stock/



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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 29 2019, 01:53 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jan 29 2019, 07:38 AM

Yes - FMG doing well this morning - currently up 4.79%, RIO up 3.39% and BHP is up 1.94% (even though settlement negotiations of the Samarco tailings dam collapse ( jv with Vale ) could be impacted by the latest Vale incidents).



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 


early birds
post Posted: Jan 29 2019, 07:38 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jan 28 2019, 10:38 AM

https://www.afr.com/business/mining/iron-or...20190129-h1al4n

The spot price for iron ore surged 4.7 per cent to its highest in more than 10 months in the wake of a second tailings dam disaster at a Vale-owned mine in Brazil in a little more than three years.

Iron ore was fixed at $US78.18 on Monday, its highest since March 2 last year when it was at $US78.34 a tonne, according to Fastmarkets MB. It was set at $US74.69 on Friday.

The most traded iron ore on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose as much as 6 per cent to 567.5 yuan a tonne, the highest since September 2017, before paring gains to close 2.8 per cent higher at 550.5 yuan.
===============

looks set to the up side as this incident unfolded ........


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blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 28 2019, 10:38 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jan 28 2019, 10:13 AM

A real possibility IMHO. See below

A third Vale mine is also causing a bit of concern - Vale dam collapse: Panic after fresh alert at another mine in Brumadinho
Cecilia Jamasmie | about 13 hours ago |
QUOTE
An alarm warning of an imminent mining dam rupture was issued on Sunday morning near Brumadinho, the same Brazilian community where the collapse of a dam at Vale’s (NYSE:VALE) Córrego do Feijão mining complex on Friday killed at least 40 and left over 400 more feared dead.

The alert of “dangerously high water levels” at another dam that is part of the same mining complex in south-east Brazil, went off at 5:30am on Sunday, Rio de Janeiro-based mining giant Vale twitted:

Local media reported that a loudspeaker alarm announced an evacuation of the area affected by Friday’s dam collapse, which has a population of 39,000 people. “Find the highest point in the city,” the warning said.

Friday’s accident panicked locals who still have vivid memories of the deadly dam failure at Samarco, BHP and Vale’s joint venture, which killed 19 people in 2015 and became the country’s worst ever environmental disaster.

"No lessons were learned from the Mariana tragedy," Greenpeace Brazil campaign coordinator Nilo D'Avila told JovenPam. "It's the same company and the same kind of accident."

Vale CEO Fabio Schvartsman said the dam at the Feijão mine had a capacity of 12 million cubic metres, far less than the 50 million cubic metres Samarco's one had in 2015. He added the facility was being decommissioned and that equipment had shown the dam was stable on Jan. 10.

Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro flew over the devastated zone on Saturday, later tweeting that it was “difficult to not be emotional before this scene”. He said all efforts were being made to care for survivors and “determine the facts, to demand justice and prevent new tragedies.”

The Feijão mine is part of Vale's southern system operations, which is made up of three mines and two ports and accounts for about a quarter of the company's iron ore output.mine and Minas Gerais state prosecutors entered a motion to freeze 5 billion reais ($1.3 billion) in the company's accounts for handling damages. It's expected that more funds will be frozen in days to come.

The same day, the country’s National Mining Agency on Saturday ordered Vale to suspend operations at the

The military said it deployed 1,000 soldiers, including sniffer dogs, to the disaster zone.


Vale's dam burst likely to affect iron ore prices - Platt's
Jan. 25, 2019 4:40 PM ET|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor
QUOTE
Iron ore prices may react next week following today's tailings dam breach at Vale's (NYSE:VALE) Corrego de Feijao iron ore mine in Brazil's Minas Gerais state.

The expected hit on supply may be seen in deliveries to China and other markets in March, when some participants expected there may be stronger steel-related demand as Chinese plants restock and operate at higher capacity, S&P Global Platts reports.

The dam burst comes as a cyclone nears Western Australia and threatens the inland Pilbara mining area, disrupting iron ore shipping.

Iron ore prices already have rebounded by $15/ton since early December to ~$75/ton.

Also: Vale's latest dam burst to bring enhanced oversight and fines, analyst says (Jan. 25)




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
early birds
post Posted: Jan 28 2019, 10:13 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jan 26 2019, 08:36 PM

so the iron ore price set jump up sharply for short term??? unsure.gif



 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 26 2019, 08:36 PM
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Another tailings disaster, this time at Vale's Feijão iron ore mine
QUOTE
A tailings dam at a Brazilian iron ore operation owned by local mining giant Vale (NYSE:VALER) burst Friday, releasing a river of sludge that covered nearby buildings and forced the evacuation of hundreds of locals. By late afternoon, Reuters reported that seven bodies were recovered, and that the death toll is expected to rise sharply.


QUOTE
The Feijão mine is part of Vale's southern system operations, which is made up of three mines and two ports and accounts for about a quarter of the company's iron ore output, according to RBC Capital Markets

read more - http://www.mining.com/tragic-deja-vu-vales...ians-under-mud/



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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