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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
post Posted: Jul 14 2004, 11:02 PM
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XJO high and a short-term look ahead .....

Warning ..... astrostuff ahead:

Hi folks,

Just some quick observations about the recent
high in the Aussie XJO ..... have not been
watching XJO lately, thinking it will make
60 squared = 3600, but not so .....

> A lot of astrostuff happening this month, as we
> have Venus and Mars move in step with each other,
> in a sextile aspect and moving degree-for-degree
> from 13072004, until 01082004.
> That means they will simultaneously make many
> aspects to other planets, during that period.
..... and now, the interesting part for this forum:
> Just check the planetary transits in your
> ephemeris, on these dates:
> 12072004:
> Mercury conjunct Mars opposite Neptune (2 degrees orb)

Mercury also sextile to Venus.

Venus also sextile to Mars.

XJO makes a high at 3568 on 12072004, so let's look
at some simple planetary relationships ......

(Astrostuff for CAETT/Gann Signs readers here.)


..... and 13072004 gave us a doji candle at the
highs, showing indecision in the markets, followed
by the sharpest drop in months, some 35 points today.

Will post an XJO chart later showing how the price
has fallen through some long-term support.

XJO - downside target = 59 squared = 3481 ... to
give us a bounce on which to base another rally,
with slower momentum ..... ???

More later.

happy trading all





No advice here. If you need advice seek a
professional, as all of the above is the
humble analysis of one techie and astrotrader.
Play it safe, please do your own research.

post Posted: Jun 30 2004, 01:17 PM
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Economy gets top marks
By Nhada Goodfellow
June 30, 2004

'AUSTRALIA'S economy has been voted the most resilient in the world for the third consecutive year by one of the world's most respected business schools.

The International Management Development school in Switzerland also ranked Australia the fourth most competitive economy in the world - up from seventh in 2003.

Australia was positioned number one for resilience to economic cycles, and the speed with which a new business could be started.

It was second for consistency of government policy and transparency of financial institutions.

The IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook 2004 found the world's most competitive economy was that of the US, followed by Singapore's and Canada's.

Federal government investment promotion agency Invest Australia said the report further strengthened Australia's "reputation as the perfect platform for business growth". Executive general manager Barry Jones said the report showed Australia's economic prospects were strong, and should become even more attractive to foreign investors. "The fact that we're very competitive means other countries will be keen to get a piece of the action, they'll try to capitalise on Australia's growth by investing here and linking up with Australian companies." ... '

' ... Commonwealth Bank chief economist Michael Blythe said Australia's resilience to international shocks had been proved in recent years - ... ' ' ... So a lot of what we lose from a slowing domestic economy we should pick up from a strong global economy," Mr Blythe said. ... '

Full story in
The Courier Mail,00.html

post Posted: Jun 24 2004, 07:29 AM
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Global Outlook - Grant Thornton (Worldwide)

International Business Owners Survey 2004

The Grant Thornton International Business Survey is an annual survey of mid-sized business owners in 26 countries in Europe, Africa, Asia Pacific and the Americas.

Now into its second year, the results start to form global trend information and build on data collected in Europe from 1993 to 2002. The survey offers insight into the expectations and plans of business owners around the world, exploring issues ranging from investment and exporting to employment and improving profitability.

Through telephone interviews, respondents helped Grant Thornton to chart business confidence, the strength of investments and export plans.

Key Global Findings - Summary only

Business expectations

Globally, businesses are more optimistic on all key indicators (turnover, employment, profitability and investment in plant & machinery) than they were in 2003.

On balance, +58% of companies are optimistic about turnover growth in the coming year. Indonesian businesses are the most optimistic (+92%), whilst the least optimistic are businesses in Japan (+6%). Businesses in Singapore are also less optimistic about turnover growth (+13%).

A subdued balance of +25% expect to see employment growth for the coming year. Pakistani businesses are the most optimistic (+48%), whilst German and Polish businesses are the most pessimistic (-16%).

A balance of +35% of companies globally expect investment in plant & machinery to increase. Greek businesses are the most optimistic (+61%). At the other end of the scale are Dutch businesses – only a balance of +2% expect increases for the coming year.

NB Business Optimism (key indicators) Graph shows increase in optimism compared to 2003. (see link below)


Globally, regulations/red tape is a major constraint on expansion (37%). It seems particularly onerous in Poland (76%).

Shortage of orders/reduced demand is the second most significant constraint globally (32%). Japan (62%) shows the highest levels of concern.

Although a slightly lower 23% of businesses globally feel lack of availability of skilled workforce is a key constraint, businesses in Spain (39%) find this particularly restrictive.

Cost of finance is thought to be the least important constraint on businesses globally (18%) – especially in Ireland where only 4% cite this. However, it is a cause for concern in Mexico where 56% consider it as a constraint on business.

Threats to the business

Increasing competition is considered the most significant threat to businesses globally (29%). Half of all Indian businesses report this as their most significant threat.

Lack of demand/economic downturn is the most significant threat to 19% of companies globally. This is felt most in Hong Kong where 47% of companies report it as the most significant threat to their business.

One in ten businesses globally consider government regulation the most significant threat to their business. It is most significant in New Zealand where 21% of companies cite this as a threat.

Maintaining/improving profitability

The most frequently used method to maintain/improve profitability is reducing costs. Over 95% of businesses in Germany and Sweden use this method.

Globally, 82% of businesses improve cash management in order to maintain/improve profitability. This method is most popular in the Philippines (93%).

Investing in new technology/systems/procedures is used by 81% of companies globally in order to maintain/improve profitability. 92% of US companies report that they use this method.

Formal policy

63% of businesses globally have a formal documented mechanism to deal with major IT failure. This is highest in the US – where 85% have a mechanism to deal with this eventuality - and lowest in Japan (15%).

Loss/destruction of property is also an event likely to be covered by a formal documented mechanism (62%). US businesses again are most likely to have a formal documented mechanism to deal with this (82%), followed by Australia (74%) and the UK (73%).

47% of businesses globally have a formal documented mechanism to deal with succession planning. Sweden leads the way (76%) but it is also common in Taiwan (73%) and Canada (66%).

International trade

Globally 35% of companies report that they export. This figure remains unchanged form last year. The countries with the highest proportion of exporting businesses are Hong Kong (62%) and Turkey (58%).

The global trade pattern is dominated by trade within regions. Within the EU, 87% of companies who export do so to Western Europe, but only around 40% to North America or Asia Pacific.

Similarly 74% of East Asian companies export to Asia Pacific, but only 45% to North America and 33% to Western Europe.

Personnel and management

At the global level, 59% of businesses have women in senior management, but there are marked variations among the countries in the survey.

Russia has the highest proportion of companies with women in senior management (89%), closely followed by the Philippines (85%).

Three quarters or more businesses in the US, Mexico and South Africa also have women in senior management positions, and in the case of US businesses, over half report that they have two or more women in senior management.

However, fewer than a third of companies in the Netherlands, Pakistan, Japan & Germany have women in senior management and, except for Pakistan, fewer than 10% of businesses have three or more women in senior management.

In 11 countries, 90% or more of companies have executives who are able to negotiate in more than one language.

Of these, six are in Asia, led by Hong Kong where an exceptionally high proportion of the population is bilingual. This is reflected in a 100% positive response, followed by Singapore (97%).

Participating Countries

Australia Indonesia Pakistan Sweden
Canada Ireland Philippines Taiwan
France Italy Poland Turkey
Germany Japan Russia United Kingdom
Greece Mexico Singapore United States
Hong Kong The Netherlands South Africa
India New Zealand Spain

Information in this report is based on the responses of a sample group of respondents and is intended to provide only a general indication of trends. It should neither be regarded as comprehensive nor sufficient for making decisions, nor should it be used in place of professional advice. Grant Thornton International and its affiliates accept no responsibility for loss arising from any action taken or not taken by anyone using this report.
The name 'Grant Thornton' signifies one of the world's leading organisations of independently-owned and managed accounting and consulting firms providing assurance, tax and specialist business advice. Services are delivered nationally by the member and correspondent firms of Grant Thornton International, a network of independent firms throughout the world. Grant Thornton International is a non-practising, non-trading international umbrella organisation and does not deliver services in its own name.

Each member and correspondent firm in Grant Thornton International is a separate independent national firm. These firms are not members of one international partnership or otherwise legal partners with each other, nor is any one firm responsible for the services or activities of any other. Each firm governs itself and handles its administrative matters on a local basis. Although many of the firms now carry the Grant Thornton name, either exclusively or in their national practice names, there is no common ownership among the firms or by Grant Thornton International. The firms are joined by a common professional vision, are especially focused on entrepreneurial, owner-managed businesses and share a commitment to providing high quality service to their clients when they do business outside their home country.

Full Article Available at: - Select Summaries/Global


from Grant Thornton (UK)

Recovery spreading across service sector as demand rises - new survey
7 June 2004

'The economic recovery is spreading across the service sector with more firms benefiting from an upturn in demand, according to the latest survey by the CBI and Grant Thornton.

The quarterly survey, published today (Monday), shows business volumes increasing at the fastest rate for three years among business and professional services firms, such as employment agencies and business travel services. ... '

' ... Business and professional companies plan to increase investment in every category - IT, land, buildings, vehicles, plant and machinery - for the first time since November 1999. But uncertainty about demand remains the key constraint on investment.

Turning to consumer services, 48 per cent of firms saw business volumes rise over the past three months, while 22 per cent saw them fall. The balance of plus 26 per cent follows a strong balance of plus 50 per cent in the February survey. These two positive results follow 11 quarters without an increase in business volumes. Firms now expect business volumes to rise by a balance of plus 43 per cent, the most positive prediction in the survey's five-and-a-half-year history. ... '

' ... Ian McCafferty, CBI Chief Economic Adviser, said: "The service sector upturn is taking a firm hold, with demand spreading across the sector. Business and professional services firms will be encouraged to see demand hitting a three-year high and now expect even stronger growth to come. Consumer services companies will be relieved that the long period of declining demand now appears to be behind them. This has boosted confidence at the fastest rate for almost five years." ... '

Full Article Available at:


Three sectors to attract the lion's share of all mid-market deals, but VCs (venture capitalists) and brokers begin to look elsewhere

12 April 2004

'Almost half of all mid-market deal opportunities for the next six months are expected to develop in just three sectors: business services (21%), healthcare (18%) and financial services (9%), according to mid-market venture capitalists and brokers surveyed by Grant Thornton Corporate Finance. However, interesting deal opportunities are also expected to develop within the food and beverages (8%), consumer products (7%) and media (6%) sectors which, compared to Grant Thornton's Corporate Finance Mid-market Barometer conducted at the end of 2003 have seen a growth in popularity. Respondents to the survey showed mixed levels of confidence in all other sectors but were specifically unimpressed by the outlook for the next six months within retail. A mere 3% compared to almost 11% three months ago stated that they would consider investing in the sector. ... '

' ... Commenting on the outlook for the corporate finance market, Paul Cannings, a Director at 3i said: "3i is optimistic about the amount of activity in the £5-50m market in 2004. And not just buy-outs either. In particular, as economic confidence grows, smaller businesses will be the biggest beneficiaries, so we expect there to be many more opportunities to invest growth capital in privately owned businesses. We also expect this to be an attractive time for owners to look to realise part of their cash tied up in shares but remain with the business for the next phase of growth." ... '

Full Article Available at:


post Posted: Apr 3 2004, 02:55 PM
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Cheers lob, LOL


People who follow me are bigger fools than I.
post Posted: Apr 3 2004, 02:42 PM
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IN REPLY TO A POST BY The_Muns, Sat 03/04/04 02:23pm

Yeah Muns, I'm glad your not Greenspan too !!! He might not have had that rumoured heart attack last week but he is looking pretty crook these days.

Where would I get those great tips from if you karked it. (eg SBP)?

post Posted: Apr 3 2004, 02:23 PM
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I'll be very surprised if they do anything before the election.

But the increase in the oil price does feed inflation.

So many variables, glad I'm not Greenspan. smile.gif


People who follow me are bigger fools than I.

post Posted: Apr 3 2004, 12:36 PM
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IN REPLY TO A POST BY The_Muns, Tue 30/03/04 02:22am

Hi Muns,

Was watching a bit of CNBC this morning and the latest thinking on interest rates is that most in the bond market are expecting a rise in August, especially after the March employment rates which were a big rise.

Though, there are still alot who think that the FED wont be raising rates any time soon and will leave it as late as possible. Especially if the march employment increase doesnt turn in to a trend. smile.gif


post Posted: Mar 30 2004, 07:23 AM
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IN REPLY TO A POST BY numlok, Mon 29/03/04 12:20am

((Well, ya sure does have sum fancy gizmoes ta play with boy, for a non-pro trader that is ...))

The last time I read the explaination of a "PRO" it was "someone that does their job for a living, full time".
If I can purchase a few "gizmoes" that helps me towards that goal then all the better wink.gif

((I should have stuck with my initial instincts - your avitar may have changed, but you're still a prickly piece of works.))

Don't judge a book by it's cover blink.gif

Tox !

The above comments are just my opinions, do your own research before deciding to buy or sell.
post Posted: Mar 30 2004, 01:52 AM
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Great post,

My exit sign is when the Greenspan puts up interest rates.

Which in the current climate, looks like dropping IMOH.

With Germany calling for a drop in EU rates, Japan currency exchange rate issue ?????

Have Fun smile.gif


People who follow me are bigger fools than I.
post Posted: Mar 29 2004, 07:42 AM
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March 27, 2004
There is nothing quite like a sudden blast higher to get the Bear off your back (at least for a couple of days, anyway). With confidence beginning to get more than a little shaky, the Dow?s gain of 170 points on Thursday was a welcome sigh of relief. It reminded us that stocks can actually do something besides go down, and that investing may involve more than looking for the Advil after the close. With some of the overbought/oversold indicators hitting readings that we haven?t seen for years, it was obvious to everyone that the market was very oversold and ready for some sort of rally attempt. The problem was that the rallies prior to Thursday had been feeble and the momentum had clearly swung to the dark side.

So it really didn?t matter what excuse the Press gave for the rally, the point was we were due for a pause in the Bear?s game of tag your portfolio. In reality, it was the combination of a little bargain hunting in tech, some decent economic news, a respite from the terror watch, and the realization that earnings will be pretty good, that sent shorts running to lock in profits. And before you could say, ?short squeeze? stocks were flying higher on Thursday. Not surprisingly, the leaders of the mad dash higher were some of our dear old friends in the Tech sector.

And speaking of Tech, just when we were beginning to think that the Four Horsemen would never ever see a green number again, Microsoft, Dell, Intel, and Cisco enjoyed a surge higher. Frankly, the rise doesn?t change the trend of late for these darling duds, but it was nice to see some gains for a change this week. And maybe, just maybe, we are starting to see some basing going on here ? especially in Dell and Cisco. If we could get some interest in these stocks beyond the one-day wonder rallies, the market could definitely enjoy a run here.

But before we get too excited, let?s recognize this action for what it is right now? a bounce. Just as we have counseled not to get sucked into all the talk of a new Bear Market, we must now recognize that one day does not a trend reversal make. Especially when the bounce occurs on less-than inspiring volume. Yes, the volume was ?decent? but it was not the kind of thrust we need to qualify Thursday as a reversal day. This tells us that the bounce was, well? a bounce.

Does This Really Mean Anything?
In one morning?s work, the market recovered 25% of the recent decline. Friday?s attempt to ?follow through? (which fizzled at the close) looked like it wanted to prove Mr. Fibonacci knew what he was talking about centuries ago, as we quickly approached the 38.2% retracement level (which, by the way, would be a convenient spot for the Bears to reenter the game). This was certainly enjoyable, but the question is ? does it mean anything? The answer is, of course, yes, and no. (Did you REALLY expect a different answer?)

Let?s explore both sides of the coin here. No ? the brief rally doesn?t mean a whole lot yet because the downtrend that is in place on most of the averages has not been reversed by the relief rally. While the blast higher did plunk the Midcap and Russell indices back into their previous trading ranges, the jury is still out on whether they can stay there over the next week. (But the longer they can stay above the old ?floor? of the range, the better.)

However, the S&P, NASDAQ, and Dow remain in a downtrend and need some additional upside work to break out of the downward spiral of lower highs and lower lows. I don?t want to sound fussy, but a little volume when this move occurs would be nice.

On the other hand?Yes ? the bounce DOES change things a bit? it means that we are now taking a shot at ?putting in? a bottom. While the move higher didn?t have enough ?oomph? to reverse the downtrend, it did make the statement that the Bulls aren?t afraid to try and make a stand. And there you have it; the game is on!

But ? after their profitable three-week run, don?t expect the Bears to just roll over and go back into hibernation. I may be restating the obvious, but we shouldn?t be looking for the market to ?V Bottom? and immediately resume its march higher. The fact is that the strong momentum we saw at the end of last year is no longer present. We should also expect a ?retest? (at least on an intraday basis) of the lows at some point soon. And this will be where Ms. Market may tip her hand. The bulls will be looking / hoping for a reversal with some volume after this inevitable move lower ? which would be a positive sign.

In all likelihood, we should expect the battle for the bottom to be spirited. In other words, don?t expect the recent volatility to go away quickly. (Although, if I had my druthers, I?d prefer to see a period of ?quiet? trading on low volume, which would indicate the market was sold out.) We also need to remember that the decline did some damage, which means the bottoming process could take a while.

Where?s the Bottom?
We?ll Know it When We See It
I could go on for cyber-pages about the different ways a bottom could potentially play itself out. This would definitely allow me to crow about being right at some point in the future, but frankly, it would be really boring and I?m not sure how it would benefit anyone. And since I really didn?t set out to write a textbook, let?s instead go another route with the question of where the bottom is? Let?s admit that no one can predict with any consistency, when, or where, a bottom will occur. However, we do know what to look for and thus, we like our odds of being able to identify the bottom reasonably quickly when it occurs. (And we?ll be sure to let you know.)

The Mini Bull?s Demise?
The same approach also goes for the end of the current Mini Bull cycle. As I?ve stated several times in the last two weeks, we don?t believe it?s time to start looking for cemetery plots for our friend "mini Bull." But the cold, hard reality is we will have to say goodbye to the cycle at some point. And thus, the really important question that we will most likely have to deal with at some point over the next year is: how will we know when the cycle is ending?

Having been in the investment business since 1980, I?ve seen a lot of cycles come and go. And one thing that I can say with absolute certainty is that the beginning and end of every one is different. The conditions that exist can be similar, but how things unfold is usually pretty unique. (I?ll spare you all the supporting data on this point? it?s also not really that interesting.)

We can tell you that the average Mini Bull lasts a little over 14 months (431 days to be exact) while the median is right at one year. We can also say that the average gain for Mini Bulls is about 62% for the Dow Jones Industrials, while the median is a bit lower at 50.6%. Given that, in our opinion, the Mini Bull began last March, (or in October of 2002) we could start guessing that this cycle ?should? be ending in the next few months. However, this bull has been quite strong in terms of its momentum, and thus, we?d expect it to wind up being classified in the above average category. For those of you keeping score at home, if you mark the beginning of the Bull as the low of the Bear, then this cycle is now 17 months old and has moved the Dow up +47.4% from the bottom. While this may be statistically preferrable, we believe the Bull began in March of last year and thus has recently had a birthday to go along with a gain of +42.7% for the Dow, +44.6% for the S&P 500, and +69.4% for our buddies on the NASDAQ.

Back to the quesion of how we will be able to tell when this "mini Bull" will get chased away by, what we hope will be, a "mini Bear." At this point, long time readers will recognize that this is a loaded question, because we don?t spend much time at all guessing when, or how, things may, or may not, happen. As we?ve said about a million times before, we like to stay ?in-line? with what IS happening ? because you never ever win an argument with Ms. Market.

The point is that our models have an excellent record of being able to identify the ?big picture? environment. And we are confident that they will help us know when the ?Big Picture? is about to change colors. How can we be so sure? As my lawyers like me to say, while there are no guarantees in the investing business, and past performance is not a guarantee of future results, the bottom line is that the record is on our side. For example, during the last Bull Market cycle, our models told us that the Bull was strong (which was correct). They told us that the Bubble Bull?s leadership was getting very narrow and risk was high in late 1999 (right again). They told us that momentum peaked long before the last Bull Market did (check). They told us to get out of tech in April of 2000 (double check, with an exclamation point). They told us to avoid ?growth? during much of the Bear Market (another good move). They told us to take defensive measures during the vast majority of the grizzly?s reign (this helped us avoid a lot of pain). They told us to buy bonds (right again - but did we listen?) They told us to ?Buy? in March and April of 2003 (Dead on, but scary). And the models told us to focus on small caps last year (small caps were the leaders in '03).

So What are the Models Telling Us Now?
As we?ve laid out over the past two weeks, our models say that the current decline is a correction in an ongoing (but aging) Mini Bull Market. They are telling us that the correction has taken its toll on the ?environment? and that a lower risk profile is warranted going forward. The models are telling us to stay focused on Midcaps for now (but they may give Large Caps the nod on April 1st). They clearly tell us that Value is the style to use at this point in the cycle. The models tell us that Momentum has fallen off a bit, but is still pretty darn good for a corrective phase. They say that we should underweight bonds in our portfolio. The models are telling us that we should be between 70% and 80% invested right now. They say that stocks are still overvalued on an absolute basis and cheap relative to the levels of interest rates. The models tell us the economy is improving. They say that interest rates (and inflation) are headed higher, but only mildly so. They told us that investors have become quite pessimistic in a very short period of time. Finally, they have been telling us to expect a bounce? and that the bounce may eventually become a tradable move higher.

Will the models be right all the time? Of course not! Keep in mind that we are investment strategists, not magicians. But they have proven over the years that they do a very good job of steering us in the right direction. So when you add everything up, the models are telling us that the environment is still positive, but not nearly as positive as it was at the beginning of the year.

Best wishes for a safe and successful week.

David D. Moenning

Positions in Stocks Mentioned: MSFT, INTC, DELL, and CSCO.

Get Rich or Die Trying

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