Registered Members Login:
   
Forgotten Your Details? Click Here To Recover +
Welcome To The ShareCafe Community - Talk Shares And Take Stock With Smart Investors - New Here? Click To Register >

2 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 >

mulgoaman
Posted on: Feb 19 2015, 08:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Regeneus reported its half yearly financials today - loss for the 6 months of $5.7m. This compares to a $6.3m. loss for the six months to 31/12/2013.

I don't know if I'm missing something, but there appears a couple of items out of kilter. For instance, revenue is shown as $1,140,958 but the cost of raising these sales ("selling expenses") is $1,252,589. The statements don't say what the "selling expenses" comprise but I would imagine there are sales staff (aka "sales team") and maybe a vehicle or two, payroll tax (?) and perhaps travelling expenses. We don't have a heading of overheads but there is an expenses heading of "corporate expenses", so I imagine telephone, computer costs etc. go under that umbrella.

But not only did it cost more to sell the product than what was received, this also was the situation in the six months ended 31/12/2013 (revenue $782,625, selling costs $1,062,624).

It's a lot worse than this however as the selling expenses don't include the cost of sales, so that the cost of the materials (inventories) that go into the sales are also taken up in addition to the selling expenses. Cost of sales in the December 2014 half year were $549,936 and in the December 2013 six months $287,748.

It's like running a lolly shop, selling $1,000 worth of lollies a week. The cost of the lollies you sell were $450 and the wages paid another $1,100. The maths are a shocker.

Let's hope the management reshuffle in November has a future positive impact.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Dec 10 2014, 09:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

There is a recent (8/12/14) report issued by Van Leeuwenhoeck Research and it gives Regeneus a "sum-of-the-parts" valuation of 96 cents per share. It can be viewed and downloaded from the Regeneus website - under Investor Centre, then go to Analyst Coverage.
Just hoping they are even half right.


MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Nov 17 2014, 01:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Yes Trisail, having wound up my Super Fund in February, 2012 and then buying back in, I topped up in July 2012 and also in October, 2012.

These all averaged out at 10.8 cents per share and today's run only brings me back to the starting line.

It' a wonder there hasn't been a speeding ticket from the ASX. You would think that all the activity can't be attributed to the announcement released on Friday morning.

Wondering also if Dory has given up on OIL - haven't seen a post here for quiet a while.


MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Nov 26 2013, 12:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Gee Melua, I hope you're right, or close to being right.

I had a look at Regeneus' disclosure release to the market (18.9.13) when they listed. This showed at that date there were 184m. shares issued plus 12m. options. They said that they anticipated a further 2m. options would also be issuing. That's 198m. - round figures 200m. If through some beautiful series of events Regeneus did become this $2 billion company then shares would have a value of $10. Even being half right at $5 would be wonderful result. Put them in the bottom drawer but don't forget where you put them.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Oct 21 2013, 10:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

I see that the date for the A.G.M. is listed on the company's website for Wednesday, 27th. November. Time and place not notified, but no doubt the formal notices will issue shortly.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Sep 21 2013, 07:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Tim Boreham in his 'Criterion' column in today's Australian writes:

"REGENEUS

"In a week in which ovarian cancer hopeful Prima BioMed joined the long list of life science plays suffering clinical trial setbacks, it's a relief to report the successful listing of this stem-cell hopeful.

"Regeneus, which has developed treatments for inflammatory conditions in humans and animals raised $10m at 25c a pop.

"While the raising was oversubscribed, the shares are hovering modestly above the issue price, having hit 29c on Thursday's debut.

"Thus, Regeneus is a SPEC BUY for those convinced it can emulate $1.8 billion market cap stem-cell cousin Mesoblast."



MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Sep 11 2013, 11:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

From the Regeneus website a short time ago:

"Regeneus is pleased to announce that its initial Public Offering has closed fully subscribed.
"Issue and allotment of shares occurred on 10 September, 2013 with holding statements dispatched on 11 September, 2013.
"Shares are expected to commence trading on the Australian Securities Exchange, under the code RGS, on a normal settlement basis on Tuesday, 17 September, 2013."


No mention of how any scaling down of excess application money was handled (if in fact that was the case). So we wait to find out.


MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Sep 10 2013, 09:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Merrywise,

I sent an email to the company on Monday (9th Sept.) re the timetabling of events, once the delay to the original dates was evident. I received a reply (mid-day on Monday) which said: "the dates on the website are indicative - we will be sending out and posting a press release to our website within the next 48 hours confirming the exact dates one we receive confirmation from ASX." "We are aiming to complete the allocation process and release of holding statements within the next 48-72 hours with the listing on the ASX happening very early next week".


So, some news any time soon.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Aug 8 2013, 03:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Alan Kohler's Eureka Report has a weekly column titled 'Collected Wisdom' where articles in the investment press and broker's reports are summarised. Yesterday's issue had a coverage on PanAust. It said:

"PanAust's record ore production at its Phu Kham copper mine in Laos was offset by cash costs hitting a new high in the quarter. At the latest update, the group reiterated copper guidance for the year and tipped a 10% rise in gold production. The newsletters still think there's more good than bad here, and rate it a buy for those looking for copper exposure.

"Production growth is expected for both the Phu Kham mine and its other big project, the Ban Houayxai gold mine. Diversifying into gold production means the group has reduced earnings risk, with gold sales now accounting for about a third of revenue.

"The business is well run and the ungeared balance sheet means it is protected to an extent against weaker copper and gold prices, the newsletters say.

"The group's long history in Laos gives it a significant advantage over competitors in the region, but with both mines just 25 kilometres apart, there is substantial geopolitical risk. Expansion into Chile through the Inca de Oro copper project reduces this risk and increases the potential for new production from 2015.

"Stronger production in the second half, as well as the recent completion of capital projects and lower expenditure, has the newsletters expecting free cash flow to rise sharply in the near term.

"The newsletters seem confident that dividends are sustainable due to the steady mine performance and stronger cash flows.

"Investors are generally advised to buy PanAust."




MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: May 30 2013, 10:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Rog.,

Just caught up with your post - thanks for that. Yes, there would be no doubting the contribution that the two Dr. R's made in the medical science field. Good luck to them in receiving their awards.

Just a regret that they might have been a little more shareholder friendly (communicative) during the time of Cellestis.

Time to move on.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Mar 4 2013, 08:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello to all,

Each week Alan Kohler's Eureka Report takes a look at what reviews have been made on various companies. In today's edition PanAust gets a mention:


"The last time PanAust was looked at was in July 2012. The newsletters then viewed it a decent buy option, since the share price had dropped 37% in the previous six months to $2.21.

"Fast forward eight months, and the investment press is again generally positive on the company's latest set of numbers even though PanAust's share price has taken another battering of late. Today its shares dropped around 6% to $2.59 on heavy volume, meaning they are down almost $1 since December. Yet, its latest results were quite promising. Net profit after tax (NPAT) for 2012 came in at $US159 million, 8% higher on the previous year, while gold production surged 154% in the year, due to the successful commissioning of its Ban Houayxai mine.

"The company has also confirmed that it's looking at significantly increasing production at the Ban Houayxai mine in the next few months. Investors will be keeping a keen eye on PanAust, as it's due to announce its decision on increasing output in the coming weeks.

"The newsletters have also indicated that PanAust could soon find itself on the receiving end of a bid in the future. One source noted that JPMorgan has PanAust at the top of its Australian merger and acquisition picks list for this year.

"Our no. 1 pick for 2013 will be PanAust. Copper consolidation continues globally, and PanAust is one of the largest listed players left. It will only be a matter of time before it gets acquired" JPMorgan said in a report.

"The newsletters think it's a good one to hold onto for now, and investors could potentially benefit from a takeover tilt in the near term.

"* Investors are advised to hold PanAust at current levels."



MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Feb 2 2013, 01:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello mrcurly,

Yes, I guess there were positives to come from the CST takeover - I did park most of my CST sale proceeds into Term Deposit and have now started to look elsewhere while interest rates are in decline.

I have taken an interest recently in a small mining company - Chalice Gold Mines. They have a prospect in Eritrea, which shows much early promise. It is near the "world class" Bisha Mine owned by Canada's Nevsun Resources (can be googled if you need to know more). Chalice currently is trading at 19c. which gives it a market cap. of $48m., which happens to be covered by their cash reserves ($53m. at 31/12/12). Chairman Tim Goyder (a cousin of Westfarmers Richard), is, from what you read, an acknowledged deal maker and over the time I've been watching the stock has increased his holding in the company - must be a good sign. Chalice are based in W.A. which for me is, unfortunately, a long way to go if you wish to attend an A.G.M. and attempt to assess the quality of the people at the top table.

On the disappointment page of the ledger sits Optiscan. They still claim to be world leaders with their "high quality minimally invasive microscopy, enabling earlier, more accurate and efficient cancer diagnosis and treatment" amongst other things. (It's all there in their A.G.M. slide presentation via A.S.X. announcements (20/11/12). Market cap. is $18m. From many years ago, Cellestis poster Skorpian used to make constructive posts on the Optiscan site but interest from all posters has waned over the years. It all seemed very promising - I don't know if management is on the ball sufficiently to deliver the goods or not. I still hold modestly, and hope.

Regards,

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Feb 1 2013, 12:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello fergun, It seems that PNA & OZL both advised that the coming 12 months earnings would be somewhat flat against the 2012 figures. With the market analysts and financial institutions' appetite for growth, growth and more growth, when these types of announcements are made the shares are dumped so they can then use the funds from selling into buying into other companies that might give them the much sort after growth factor.

Trouble is that the analysts and institutions aren't necessarily subject to the same scrutiny of needing to demonstrate if they themselves have produced growth in their own figures.

Things can compound when these sort of sell-downs happen as many holders of stock have a stop loss factor against shares they hold so that if a share goes down (say 10%), then that is a trigger for an automatic sell off for others holding the stock.

Looking to see what I might sell off in order to buy a few more Pan myself.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Feb 1 2013, 09:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello mrcurly, I now see where Qiagen have reported its full year (2012) results. They say in part:

"the Quantiferon TB test (acquired with Cellestis in 2011) achieved more than 20% CER pro forma growth in 2012 on initiatives in the US and Europe to drive greater use of this new 'gold standard' test for latent tuberculosis (TB)"

I did need to look into the CER bit - apparently it means "Constant Exchange Rates" by restating the prior years figures using the exchange rates that were in force in the current reporting year. This is to strip out the effect of changing currency rates and show comparatives on a like for like basis.

A 20% growth on our previous investment in Cellestis wouldn't have been hard to take either. But as most posters here have commented
- time to get over it.

Regards,

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Nov 6 2012, 03:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello to those still holding and hoping,

I had a look at the slide presentation given by Angus Holt for the Australian Life Investment Summit which was held last Friday. (see the company's ASX announcements).

Management seems to be getting more confident these days - a presentation in September, an interview with Wholesale Investor in October and now this one. Encouraging words being mentioned on all occasions by Mr. Holt regarding the Optiscan story thus far and into the future.

I did wonder about the logic behind slide 5 of the most recent presentation however. This is showing that $95million has been invested in funding sources into the company in its 15 year history. But as the company has (at 30th. June, 2012) accumulated losses of $46million and total equity of only $300,000 its hard to see where this investment has gone. No doubt the R. & D. expenses (which are written off and not capitalised) account for much of it. So if the $95million investment in the company is re-cast as to reflect the $45million of shareholder funds (contributed equity) and therefore something in the order of $50million of patents, copyrights etc., can we now look to sell the company for the $50million. On a return of capital to shareholders that's $1.10. I'll settle for $1 a share.

Otherwise trisail will be holding for another decade before the potential is realsied.

And I do wish the company would acknowledge emails - two sent (September and October) and no reply.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Oct 29 2012, 12:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

I don't know if this is better posted on the Optiscan thread or maybe on "A Little Friday Humour". But if you want a chuckle, go to the Optiscan web site and the Home Page. The page leads with 'Latest News' and at the top is the Optiscan CEO Interview. Go into this and play but also hit the red button for captions (English translation). Have a watch and a listen.

But while it's a chuckle, it's also somewhat serious if management can't get these things right. I did send and Email to Optiscan pointing out the problem. This was over a week ago but no acknowledgement was forthcoming from them and also no correction has been made to the video.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Sep 17 2012, 09:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

I see where Optiscan released a "Presentation" today. Looked quite impressive, but there didn't seem to be any information as to whom the presentation was to be presented to. Is Optiscan having a roadshow? Are select brokers coming around for morning tea and a promotional chat? Maybe it was just put out there for a financial writer to pick up on and to write some nice things, or perhaps it was designed to give a little encouragement to the long suffering, very patient shareholders in the company.

I had a look in on the the company website and as at 9pm. (17/9/12) nothing is shown on the homepage under "Latest News" which is where I thought it would also get a mention.

Still waiting in hope.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Sep 3 2012, 09:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello J.,

Still hurting ? Don't know if hurting is the right description - probably cheesed off is a bit closer. But what's in a word or two.

And probably one of my main gripes is that having been a shareholder for those many years, and in particular the full 2010-11 period, is that when settlement of the S.O.A. was made CST was then "removed from the official list following confirmation of the implementation of the scheme" The following day (31st August) would have been the deadline for companies to report their annual results to the ASX. It always seemed convenient to me that management did not to have to report to shareholders. This was achieved by tidying things up by just the odd day (30th August). I know it would have been only academic for us shareholders but nevertheless interesting to know how the year transpired and we could have merrily used those figures in our hypothetical calculations in assessing the worth of the company.

My CST posts were mainly covering what I gleaned by going to AGMs and briefing sessions plus also where I attempted to point out that management weren't very shareholder friendly in carrying out their duties for the bulk of shareholders. Unfortunately I think I was pretty close to the mark with those observations. Having held shares in Blackmores and PanAust (to name a couple) over the years and attended their AGMs I think the ASX could lift the bar in what shareholders should received from their managements and not let companies, such as CST get away with the bare minimum of communications.

Here endeth the cheesed off session.

Regards,

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Aug 21 2012, 09:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

And a follow up to the S.M.H. article this morning:

Optiscan made an announcement to the ASX late this afternoon (6.20pm) pointing out that 60,970 shares were acquired by Mr. Holt's company on 13th. and 14th. August and that those share purchases are in breach of the closed period under the company's Share Trading Policy. The announcement says that the Board will review its Governance processes accordingly.

No mention though of the 370,000 shares acquired on 19th. & 20th. June which preceded the announcement on 21st June, of the $800,000 Zeiss order.

I think we need another ASX announcement to tidy this all up.


MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Aug 21 2012, 10:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello to anybody who is still following the Optiscan saga,

From this morning's CBD column in the Sydney Morning Herald our Mr. Holt gets a bit of a rap over the knuckles:

"Optiscan Imaging's executive chairman, Gus Holt, must have been so focused on his company's laser scanning microscopic technology that he missed noticing things more visible to the naked eye, such as his failure to update the market on his share-buying activities over the past two years.
Holt lodged a change of directors notice and change of substantial shareholder notice yesterday that disclosed a tally of share purchases in the company from May 2010 to last week that pushed his interest up from 5.16 per cent to 9.54 per cent.
Holt provided no explanation for the late filing of the notice which also showed the purchase of shares in the lead-up to price-sensitive announcements by Optiscan.
For instance, the notice also showed a private company Holt is a director of snapped up 370,000 Optiscan shares in the two days leading up to an announcement in June that the company had secured an $800,000 order. Optiscan shares surged 55 per cent on the day of the announcement"


MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Mar 3 2012, 05:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello to all,

An article in yesterday's Australian covers the last minute reporting by companies that have bad news to release regarding their half year results. The Australian said in part:


"Threre's a hard and fast rule in public relations: get the good news out early and save the bad stuff for later. So it appeared, with a noticeable lack of cheerful reading in the 11th-hour earnings announcements as the February 29 deadline approached to end another reporting season. With two months to prepare financial accounts for the period ending December 31, more than 100 companies waited until close of business on Wednesday to lob their results."


Optiscan managed to report on 23rd. February last year when it had a more favourable set of figures to release, but waited until 3 o'clock on the last day of reporting; this year to announce their result.

With sales of $244,620 and expenditures of $1.4m. there can't have been too many transactions to collate in order to calculate the bottom line result. One can only think the poor figures were anticipated well in advance and the preparation of the final figures held back until the last possible moment.

Which raises the point concerning the releasing of information to the market in a timely manner, as and when such information is known. Directors must have been aware of the bad result for some time before the end of the month and known the likelihood of that upon the share price.

So what about buyers taking up shares at 15c., 16c. or 17c. leading up to the release of the figures to then find the shares plummet to 13c. & 11.5c. Do those buyers have a case against directors for not having announced the result earlier?
The result was a 'bummer' to say the least. To have seen the improvement in the share price over the few weeks one could only think that there was a good possibility of encouraging news to come in the half yearly figures.

Does anybody have an idea of the unit price of the goods that Optiscan produces? I was of the opinion that medical equipment was not inexpensive so that the stated sales of $244,620 could only mean a handful of of items sold. Does Optiscan have a sales person engaged or a sales division within the organisation? If so I would think that it needs to be given the flick. If there is no sales division then there is a desperate need for one to be got going.

I also have a problem trying to follow the flow of sales and the figure for debtors shown in the financials.

Debtors (Trade and other receivables are shown in the Balance Sheet or if you like the Consolidated Statement of Financial Position) at $532,102. The receivables can only come from the sales of goods ($244,620 for the six months) and government grants of $456,350. So the question to ask is how slow are the collection of funds from the sale of goods (Does the figure even include debtors older than 6 months?) and should 'other income' - that from government grants be brought to account on an accruals basis as oposed to accounting for it as and when it's received?

I'm away for a few days from tomorrow but I think I might drop a line to management when I get back to ask that question.

If any poster here has a thought on this aspect it would be a help if you let's know your take on things.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Feb 26 2012, 08:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello dory,

Can't say I'm a chart person.

I remember going to an 'open' day put on by the ASX in Sydney when I first got organised with my Super Fund about 12 years ago.
One of the speakers on the day said he subscribed to share prices being "events" driven. A good announcement from the company,
a good half yearly or annual results or a guidance report. Or the opposite (read not good for good).

The same for an analyst's forecast and recommendation etc. etc.

Maybe after the "event" there will be a flurry of activity, buying or selling, which the chart people will pick up on. And if enough subscribers to charting take over this will further effect the price. But the "event" will come first.

So the "event" we are now interested in is the half yearly result and if any analysts bother to take up on it and give it some sort of recommendation.

Can't be long to wait now.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Feb 22 2012, 10:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello dory,

15cents!. Was that you dory? It's a bit of encouragement whoever it was.

I notice that the Half Yearly Report came out on 23rd. February last year, so the Report for the December, 2011 half can't be far away now. Maybe the recent improvement in price might be to do with what's expected from the Report.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Nov 27 2011, 07:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello dory,

Maybe some of the oldtimers have lost interest - I see where silex's last post was in October, 2009 and Carneius' in February, 2010. Skorpian was another who contributed that I liked to follow, but what I gathered from another posting site here at Sharescene he pulled the plug after a difference of opinion with S.S. management.

Makes me wonder whether I should be here also.

Still holding, hopefully.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Nov 24 2011, 01:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Sam,

I see 10cents just a few minutes ago - what we need now is 14c to get dory back in. Onward and upward, and will
somebody stop moving this bloody screen please.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Nov 21 2011, 07:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

"Anyone go to the meeting?"

I don't think they were wanting you there - at least if you were from interstate, it's a hell of a time for holding the a.g.m.

3.30 pm start, so a 5.00pm finish, then try and have a meaningful chat to management when they are looking to get away. Get back to Melbourne in the peak time, get to the airport, again in the peak. Allow for a margin of error and book your return flight at about 8pm. Arrive at your own airport, not before 9.30pm. Get yourself home, all for what? An afternoon of frustrations.

As I say, if they were trying for an award for the most lousily scheduled a.g.m. I reckon they'd win.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Sep 22 2011, 03:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello dory,

Sorry for the tardy response - I've been away for a bit and then other things have been on my plate as well.

The comments from management that accompanied the figures did make the point that it was the first year of profitability for the company, and naturally that's to be applauded.

But it didn't seem to mention that the net profit for the year of $14,405 is after a half yearly (to 31/12/2010) profit of $315,200. Therefore the January - June 2011 half year has been a net loss of $300,795 ($315,200 less $14,405).

Still, I suppose the half yearly did come with a proviso "revenue in coming periods is likely to be lumpy in the lead up to the release of the company's neurosurgery line. They also say in conjunction with the annual figures that "the strategic review process is expected to offer up new directions for the company".

Seems that the company is making progress after all this time but not to get too excited. Wait and see the next half results and probably the half after that as well.

Also seems that the maket hasn't taken a shine to the results - .086c today following the 10c when the yearly results were announced.

Holding but not overly confident.

MM.
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Aug 28 2011, 04:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Dory,

What is due to un-fold this week is the 2010-11 Preliminary Final Report. Last year Optiscan released it on the 31. August, so it must be very close now. If there are any fence sitters (might buy or might sell) the report might make up their minds for them. It could be an interesting week.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Aug 4 2011, 06:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello to all,

I attended yesterday's SOA meeting and as Whisper has posted - about 60 - 70 in attendance, although they had allowed seating for 200.

Chairman Ron made much of the need for following procedural guidelines - it seems that if the meeting strayed from this then next weeks Court hearing could be jeopardised. Consequently much reading from the script and then downtime (tea and bikkies if you liked) while Computershare tallied the votes cast at the meeting to be aggregated with the pre-polls. Not a lot happending as D'Lids observed.

Last month I asked on the webcast - would the I.E. be in attendance to address any concerns that shareholders might have on the I.E. Report. The answer to that was no, and I even had a follow up phone call from Jim Rothel to tell me that although the auditor came to the A.G.M. this was a different situation and no go with the I.E. at the S.O.A. meet.

There was a facility in the I.E. Report to lodge a complaint if you might choose to do so. I didn't exactly complain, but said I thought it was a bit slack bearing in mind the importance of the meeting and the report that was pivotal for the meeting. Additionally there was a not inconsequental fee paid for the report. Deloittes promptly replied to me and explained that it was their policy with regard to such meetings - "and attend if we are instructed to do so (by the Board)".

So, I asked at the meeting yesterday why the Board did not request the I.E. to attend. The answer from Chairman Ron was a curt "Deloittes are in attendance at the meeting". Which only left me to respond that had I known I could have come prepared with questions I would have wished to ask.

After all there was much written on Rog's blog and also by Vic about synergy benefits, the missing controlling premium, Qiagens other acquisition and they had given facts and figures to back up the points made. I hadn't come prepared with this . There was also Lodge Partners's report of 18 months or so ago where they spoke of barriers to entry (of competitors). None of that in the SOA book - only the risks seem to be spoken about.

Not happy Jan.

So it's farewell to the good posters here at Sharescene, I've appreciated the information and opinions that have been given over the years.

It does seem that next weeks Court hearing is procedural, I didn't detect any thoughts to the contrary.

Shortly after the S.O.A. was announced last April Hagar and Tarpot implored us here at Sharescene to register our dissatisfaction by forwarding our views to A.S.I.C. This I did and I imagine others may have done so also. But oddly since that time Hagar and Tarpot have gone silent. Can't imagine why. Do they know something we don't?

So it's time to clear out the old annual reports, the spread sheets, the newspaper cuttings (not a lot of those) and regain some space in the filing cabinet.

Best wishes,

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Aug 1 2011, 09:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello tassie,

If you really are looking for suggestions for alternative investments, should the SoA go through, I don't really think that canvassing suggestions from chat room posters is the ideal way to go about it.

But, if you have built up a respect with the views expressed here by some of the members, and maybe you have a couple that you have taken more seriously than others, you could perhaps look back on their previous posts and see what else they have been chatting about and the observations they may have made on those other companies.

Jot them down, mix them up and draw one or two out of your hat.

Good luck.

Regards,

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jul 26 2011, 09:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Off-the-mark,

It rains a lot in August. September gets a fair bit as well. It doesn't taper off until October - the start of the drier part of the year. Google up 'Laos rainfall map' - gives you an idea of how things are weather-wise in Laos.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jul 14 2011, 05:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Wags,

I understand that Cellestis is to issue a supplementary Scheme Booklet and this will include a supplementary Independent Expert's Report to reflect the revised proposal. Don't know the timing of it all but I imagine they will have to act pretty promptly if there is going to be a meeting in early August. And presumably it will have to be posted to all shareholders.

And the cost of it all !!!

Say hello to myshares will you when you next chat over coffee. Seems the man has a bit of a fan club going.

Regards,

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jul 14 2011, 05:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Fang,

I think you are right. We are going to be diddled out of a final dividend, with the sweetener of the "special dividend". Although as we know the "special dividend" comes off the Qiagen takeover price.

If we take the guidance announcement of last week when they said "normalsed earnings before interest and tax are expected to be in the order of $13m." Interest would probably be about $1m. Tax on $14m. would be approx. $4.2. Then no doubt the board will look at the bottom line on which to declare the company dividend on and so would take up the Scheme costs of $1.3m. We're now down to $8.5m. I think it was said at a previous a.g.m. that they would look to a dividend payout ratio of 60% and so for 2010-11 you might expect to get 8.5c or 8.75c in dividend. Take away the interim dividend paid earlier this year of 2c and we now lose out on, as you say, 6.5c or 6.75c in a final dividend. The final dividend has in the past been paid mid-October. The original date of payment of the "special dividend" according to the Scheme booklet was 16th. August. Now, with the revised timetable no doubt that will be put back also - probably to the end of August. The timing of all this means we forego nearly 7c of dividend which no doubt will be paid to the new owners of the shares - Qiagen, probably six weeks after they takeover.

As you said, it stinks.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jul 13 2011, 03:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello myshares

I think you mke a very telling point: "recognising that for the last 2 months the executive have been busy selling the company rather than selling QFT". But it's probably more like the past 6 months, going back to tea and bikkies, investor presentations, SOA legals, bankers, I.E., discussions with CSAG and pesky shareholders, etc. etc. So with the increases gained in the six months to June, 2011 in Turnover and Net Profit maybe we have been overlooking the fact that the day to day running can go on without the dominant influence of the two R's. Maybe the company is set up to allow an orderly managerial transition if need be.

Re D'Lid's observation of paying 40 times current earnings - I wonder if he is using the guidance figures for the 2010-11 year recently announced. Deloittes aparently worked back to a calendar year. And if you take the half year to June 2011 (taken from the 2010-11 guidance) you have a net profit after tax of $5.46m. (approx.). If you forecast from there for this calendar year (the current year of which we are half way through) you can achieve a net current year (calendar 2011) earnings of $11 to $12 million. At 40 p.e. it's close to a s.p. of $4.80, at a p.e. of 35 you get $4.20. You need a p.e. of 32 to get the $3.80 figure.

Regards,

MM

SORRY, HIT THE SUBMIT TWICE
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jul 13 2011, 03:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello myshares

I think you mke a very telling point: "recognising that for the last 2 months the executive have been busy selling the company rather than selling QFT". But it's probably more like the past 6 months, going back to tea and bikkies, investor presentations, SOA legals, bankers, I.E., discussions with CSAG and pesky shareholders, etc. etc. So with the increases gained in the six months to June, 2011 in Turnover and Net Profit maybe we have been overlooking the fact that the day to day running can go on without the dominant influence of the two R's. Maybe the company is set up to allow an orderly managerial transition if need be.

Re D'Lid's observation of paying 40 times current earnings - I wonder if he is using the guidance figures for the 2010-11 year recently announced. Deloittes aparently worked back to a calendar year. And if you take the half year to June 2011 (taken from the 2010-11 guidance) you have a net profit after tax of $5.46m. (approx.). If you forecast from there for this calendar year (the current year of which we are half way through) you can achieve a net current year (calendar 2011) earnings of $11 to $12 million. At 40 p.e. it's close to a s.p. of $4.80, at a p.e. of 35 you get $4.20. You need a p.e. of 32 to get the $3.80 figure.

Regards,

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jul 13 2011, 09:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello John,

Thanks for that.

There is however, a post this morning on Rog's blog. Despite the triple underline and "that's it folks" of what we took to be his signing off he has followed up this morning with 'INTERESTING TIMES'.

All very interesting.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jul 12 2011, 07:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello whisper,

Not quite sure of the point you are getting at whisper - are you asking should posters share whatever information they have with us here at Sharescene? Well, you can't make them, but in the past most of us have given freely of information that has been gathered through the press, through the internet, by attending A.G.M.'s and the like. And of course the spread sheets and the expressing of opinions. Sort of made a happy little family. But as is the way with many families, harmony unfortunately doesn't always prevail. More's the pity.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jul 12 2011, 05:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

And on another topic - when it was mentioned to me last Friday that the I.E. would not be attending the Scheme Meeting I thought it a bit slack. So I sent an email to Deloittes saying in effect that the I.E.report was pivotal in the Scheme booklet and shareholders had to place a great deal of reliance upon it in making an informed decision on their voting. Having regard to that and the not inconsequental fee involved it therefore would not be out of place for the I.E. to be at the meeting to address any questions and concerns that shareholders may have.

I received an email lfrom them today saying, in part:

"the practice of whether the expert attends the Scheme Meeting varies. Deloittes policy in this regard is to discuss our potential attendance with the Board and attend if we are instructed to do so."

So, as our chief pickers-apart of the I.E. Report aren't firing bullets anymore, I suppose it wont be a great loss in not having the I.E. at the meeting.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jul 12 2011, 05:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Limefresh,

Re: Rog's final posting on his blog. (It must be final it's triple underlined).

To me Rog has always had a cutting way with his words - got the impression he didn't suffer fools lightly. Probably had a bit to put up with working his way through all the posts here on S.S. (mine naturally included).

But the cutting edge wasn't there in this final post and he seemed to be saying SELL - the Directors have recommended this and having confidence in the Directors this is what you would do.

Alternatively, if you don't have confidence in the Directors, well SELL anyway, for who would want to own shares in a company that you don't have trust in those that run the company.

He didn't seem to want to address any other scenario to this second line of thought.

After all the years of following and getting great information off his blog I was a bit perplexed by his sign-off contribution. Just one more thing to be perplexed about.


MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jul 11 2011, 05:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

What about a conspiracy theory!

While the NO vote numbers were available in the public domain there would be no need for a likely alternate bidder to show their hand at too early a stage as nothing is going to happen and CST would remain ASX listed.

If the NO voters then switch to YES then a potential suiter on the sidelines would be forced to make a counter bid, otherwise its game set and match and CST is gone forever.

I think its a cunning plan to flush out a higher bid. A nice thought anyway.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jul 11 2011, 01:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

myshares,

Yes, I often wonder how Skorpian is getting on these days.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jul 11 2011, 12:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello JB.

QUOTE "By voting no you not only risk your personal wealth but also that of many others"


Well, there's a heap of buying strength at $3.75. So if anyone wants a bird in the hand and wishes to avoid the uncertainty of a NO vote then perhaps they should take the $3.75 now instead of waiting for a month or so for the $3.80 to come through.

Which raises the point with the buyers at $3.75. There must be more to it surely than picking up 1% on your outlay and having your money tied up for that time and in addition have the possibility that the offer could still be rejected. Is that how fine a margin these funds work on?

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jul 11 2011, 10:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Ditto drrc, maybe we go to the Scheme meeting, vote NO on principle and have a wake thereafter.


MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jul 8 2011, 02:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

I did ask on the webcast Q. & A. about the attendance of the I.E. and the financial press at the Scheme meeting. When the answer was no to the I.E. being there I asked a follow-up question. This was along the lines of - how could shareholders satisfy themselves of the independence and the expert abilities of I.E. if they don't have to opportunity to ask questions at such a meeting? This additional question didn't get answered by the close of the webcast.

I have just had a follow up - a courtesy phone call and a pleasant chat with Jim Rothel. Jim pointed out that there is no requirement for the I.E. to attend and so this would be the case. I said I thought it would not have been too dissimilar to the auditor attending the A.G.M. to answer any questions raised on the financial statements that he/she had audited. Jim acknowledged the point but said there were different obligations for the auditor and for the I.E.

But it was a nice chat and far more personal than an email on a computer screen.

So, I imagine if any of the conclusions the I.E. has reached are challenged at the Scheme meeting, then the Chairman will just stifle such a challenge by saying its the I.E.'s professional opinion. End of discussion. Not an ideal outcome.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jul 1 2011, 01:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello J.

No change to the stupid leg-bye rule I take it.

The batting side scores runs by hitting the ball to the boundary or hitting where they can negotiate a sprint up the length of the pitch. They may also gain from the poor effort of the bowling/fielding team (overthrows, wides, no-balls, byes). So where is the logic in recording leg-byes.

If cricket be the battle twixt bat and ball
Why dol they count leg-byes at all?

By recording a run off the batsman's body it appears that the body is therefore a proxy bat. So maybe a batsman could be caught out from such a contact. That might liven things up and get rid of all the bat-pad (which was hit first?) controversies.

MM
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jul 1 2011, 12:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

So now we have, in the absence of a succession plan, the Directors opting for an exit strategy. The easy way out for the principal shareholders.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jun 29 2011, 01:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello D'Lids,

Perhaps another question for the meeting tomorrow. Could you ask how many emails or other correspondence were received by the CST Investor Relations people, following the announcement of the S.O.A., and how many have been acknowledged or responded to by CST management?

I know I've waited twelve weeks without a result.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jun 24 2011, 05:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Likewise Mongerel, no scheme booklet or proxy form to hand as yet.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jun 24 2011, 08:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Frank,

"card holders can speak at the AGM (if Pitcher will let you)"

Does that also include speaking at the SOA meeting??

And what if there is a motion to dissent from the chairman's ruling? Can that be carried from a show of hands from those in attendance? Might have to brush up on meeting procedure before attending on the 20th.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jun 21 2011, 07:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello D'Lids,

Good to know you will be in attendance and hopefully you can be the eyes and ears for us not able to be there.
Could you perhaps ask if the financial press will be welcome at the Scheme Meeting on the 20th. Ron never liked them at the A.G.Ms., but with all the press coverage recently it might not give a good message if they cannot be allowed to attend next month. Otherwise the press boys and girls would need to buy a few shares of their own in the meantime.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jun 18 2011, 09:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

From what I gathered at the time, many of us here at Sharescene after the SOA announcement was made, wrote to ASIC and to Cellestis expressing our feelings on the Qiagen proposal.
When I emailed Investor Relations at CST I sought and received an assurance that my comments would be passed on to the Board. Now, two and a half months later, I have received no response from them - not even a basic courtesy of an acknowledgement.
I said in part:

"I have been a long term shareholder in the company and felt I had been patient whilst the company's product had gradually gained its acceptances in the medical world. I felt this patience was being rewarded when the company's half yearly accounts to 31st. December, 2010 were released and also a detailed analysis by Shaw Stockbroking was issued shortly thereafter.

"In fact I attended the Shaw Stockbroking offices in Sydney when Dr. Radford gave his presentation. One hypothetical question from the floor at this presentation asked Dr. Radford if a takeover offer was made, for example at $5.00, what would his response be to this as a director of the company and also as a major shareholder in the company.

"After due consideration and in an earnest response, Dr. Radford replied that as the then current share price was $2.60/$2.70, an offer of close to double the market figure meant that a shareholder would be unlikely to obtain that figure on the market for some considerable time and as a consequence of that he would in fact have to support such a takeover offer.

"Now, after a closing price of $3.00 on Friday 1st April we are told on Monday 4th. April that $3.55 is an acceptable price!! This is a paltry 18% above the previous close - nothing near the 90% to 100% that Dr. Radford had spoken of in his serious response to the questioner six weeks earlier.

"As Dr. Radford pointed out in his presentation and as the Shaw Stockbroking analysis stressed, the company is now at a point where revenues and profits are growing at 35% - 50% and that these are projected over the next several years.

"No doubt the increase in the share price from mid-February to the end of March had been due to the release of the half-yearly figures, the company presentations and the Shaw Stockbroking analysis and to Shaw's introduction of Cellestis as a stockholding to their clients.

"If, for whatever reason the company is to be acquired by an outside party, and I can't help but feel because of the haste of this event, that there is more to it than meets the eye, then I would be expecting a loading of 90% - 100% over the 1st. April close of $3.00. This is what would be realistic to compensate for the loss of potential growth in the company over future years. At $5.70 ($3.00 + 90%) I would still be a reluctant seller.

"So in the meantime I remain a nonplussed, frustrated and a disillusioned shareholder in a company that I had patiently held, having had great hopes for it (the company), for me (the shareholder) and for mankind generally.

"I shall be voting NO when this matter is raised at a shareholder meeting."


As I say I've not received any acknowledgement from management and I'm wondering if other posters who may have raised issues with the Board on the SOA have faired any better. Has anybody heard back from management, or is this another instance of how shabbily shareholders get treated?

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: May 28 2011, 09:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Tuapui,

The company's ASX announcement of 20th. May, 2011 "Share Consolidation Key Dates" shows in part -

# Registration of securities on a post consolidation basis 31/5/11.

# Dispatch of new holding statements 6/6/11.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: May 26 2011, 01:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

And also on Rog's blog today - he has an item regarding gender and leadership. Although its an article on horsemanship, I think it has a connection with current matters under discussion here.

I've read elsewhere where the masculine side is reflecting of the deep belief in the value of your own life, while the feminine side reflects the deep belief in the value of the lives of others.

So in the context of Cellestis, the running of the business from its inception through to trials and peer reviews and approvals and marketing to where we are today was good in hands of those with their masculine side to the fore but it unfortunately is not a plus in regard to the running of a public company and considering the needs of others - the shareholders (the owners).

Despite the very keen interest shareholders have had in the company - large attendances at A.G.M's. with many interstate shareholders attending, dedicated blogsites (thanks again Rog.) and a dedicated group of posters on internet chatsites consistently turning up information on the company's activities, shareholders have been treated as an inconvenience.

The handling by Chairman Ron on a question at the previous A.G.M. regarding possible consideration of a female board member highlighted Ron's blokey thinking.

Now with the S.O.A. proposal and the disregard as to how others, apart from the board members, might feel about the scheme, it clearly shows a lack of understanding that the board has towards its shareholders.

Its time for the board to discover their feminine side. Or is it too late?

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: May 25 2011, 08:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

The same article is in the CBD column in this morning's Sydney Morning Herald.

MM

  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: May 19 2011, 05:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Puzzled,

As we are getting towards the end of May, that means management will have 9 months of financial accounts + the April sales figures known to them. They would also have a good indication of May and June sales based upon orders made.

As we haven't heard from management we can reasonably assume that the guidelines for 2010/11, previously given, must be within the target range. That itself is encouraging.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: May 1 2011, 08:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Kelpie,

You say "a demonstration of the level of business acumen held by these two Doctors etc. etc."


Well, not just the two doctors but the whole Board, as we were previously advised that the S.O.A. was unanimously recommended by the Board.

Last Novemeber at the A.G.M. we were told that any appointment that might be made to the Board would be on the basis of merit and ability. So ipso-facto those who would be assessing merit and ability in others must themselves have those qualities, otherwise they would not be on the Board themselves.

Well, if you can't foresee the mood and reaction of the shareholders in the company you control there is something missing in your qualities as a director - in your ability to be a director.

So as you say Kelpie, hopefully a new Board that possessed a greater awareness of the expectations and anticipations of the shareholders would restore some shareholder confidence. A completely new Board might, however, be somewhat radical, there would be a strong case for a certain degree on continuity.

We have an interesting few months on our hands.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Apr 28 2011, 05:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Alfa,

You ask: "Who has made growth predictions beyond 3 - 4 years? Directors or islanders ?

Well last week I posted (18.4.2011) an extract from Shaw Stockbroking's coverage on Cellestis which gave their (Shaw's) estimates through to 2018. The bottom line being that on Shaw's figures Cellestis should be on the way to being 9 times the company that it is today. OK, they are estimates and a lot of things can happen between now and 2018. But obviously they see the promise and the potential that CST has to offer. And I don't think Shaws would have made such estimates without reasonable reference to the board of CST.

So growth predictions beyond 3 - 4 years, directors or islanders? I'd say the directors have lent a hand in doing so.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Apr 27 2011, 05:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Henrietta,

Re the mail out today. Yes, chairman's letter and nice glossy ASX announcement posted to all shareholders. So what did that cost the company - putting the YES case for the major shareholders in favour of theS.O.A. Plus the other costs, legal, investment banking advices, the independent expert, etc. etc. Any chance of the company giving an equal amount of funding to those support the NO case? No chance.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Apr 21 2011, 11:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Big Mumma,

"I'm 56 years old, soon to be 57."

Try being 73 y.o. As you say, at what stage does a person cease looking for new opportunities. Probably about now, or perhaps even a few years ago.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Apr 18 2011, 09:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello all,

Shaw Stockbroking brought out a report on CST shortly after the S.O.A. was announced. I hadn't caught up with before. I don't think it has been posted here previously. Shaw say:

"CST has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with the Dutch diagnostics company Qiagen for Qiagen to acquire all the ordinary shares in CST for $3.55 per share (excluding any special dividends paid in the interim). CST's board is recommending that in the absence of a superior bid, shareholders vote in favour of the scheme. The company's founders, Tony Radford and Jim Rothel, have entered into option arrangement which, if approved, will allow Qiagen to acquire 19.9% of CST in certain circumstances. The process is expected to take until July to complete.

"The transaction is being conducted under a Scheme of Arrangement rather than as a standard corporate takeover under the Corporations Law. The Scheme is subject to certain circumstances including:
1. Approval by CST shareholders (75% of voted shares);
2. Receipt of regulatory and court approvals;
3. Independent Experts Report confirming it is the best interest of CST shareholders;
4. No material adverse changes.
The scheme is subject to the standard exclusivity and non-solicitation provisions that are typical in these situations.
The timetable for the Scheme is:
Late May: first court hearing and dispatch Scheme Booklet to shareholders;
Late June: shareholder's Scheme Meeting and second court hearing.
Mid-July: implemenation of Scheme

"What Happens From Here?
The offer is a 24% premium to the 1-month VWAP. It is not clear whether this will be seen to be attrative by CST's shareholders, many of whom have held the stock for several years and are big believers in the potential of CST's Quantiferon test. Relative to many takeovers in the biotech space, which have been at a 50%+ premium, Qiagens offer of $3.55 per share may be seen to be at the low end. Under the S.O.A. we understand that 75% of the voting shares need to vote in favour for the transaction in order for it to be approved.
We also believe that, given the sales growth profile and profitability of Quantiferon, there is potential for an offer in excess of $3.55 per share to emerge during while the Scheme is under consideration. In view of this, we are expecting it will be an interesting few monthjs for CST and CST's shareholders."

Interestingly Shaw have extended their forecast timeline. They now have forecasts ("estimates") to 2018.

These show: 2011.........total revenue $50.3...............Profit after tax $10.2.........earnings per share 10.6
2012.......... ................total revenue $67.3...............Profit after tax $15.5.........earnings per share 16.2
2013...........................total revenue $89.1...............Profit after tax $24.1.........earnings per share 25.1
2014...........................total revenue $116.0............. Profit after tax $35.1........earnings per share 36.5
2015...........................total revenue $145.4............. Profit after tax $47.2........earnings per share 49.1
2016...........................total revenue $182.0............. Profit after tax $62.6........earnings per share 65.2
2017...........................total revenue $218.9............. Profit after tax $78.0........earnings per share 81.3
2018...........................total revenue $252.3............. Profit after tax $91.8 .......earnings per share 95.6

So according to Shaw's forecasts in seven years time CST should be nine times the company that it is today. Does that mean 9 x $3.55???

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Apr 18 2011, 02:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Thanks very much for that Ciabatta. Indeed, it could well be a case of open slather. Does ASIC interest themselves in any perceived manipulating of share holdings, I wonder.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Apr 18 2011, 11:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Frank,

"...one shareholder, one vote etc...go out and buy your $500 worth..."


Don't know if it's as straightforward as that.

Clause 6.1 of the S.O.A. says that to vote you need to be on the register on or before the Scheme Record Date (shares transferred after that date do not count). The Scheme Record Date is defined as 5pm on the fifth business day after the effective date (or such other date as agreed in writing by Cellestis and Qiagen). Then on page 1 of the Scheme Implementation deed it shows the date of 3rd. April, 2011. Then in the definitions again the implementation date is the fifth business day after the Scheme Record Date or such other day as the parties agree. Probably makes it the 8th. April, 2011.

I did run it past Forrest for his consideration, he's probably trying to unravel it as well.

Do we have a poster with a legal background with us on Sharescene?

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Apr 14 2011, 10:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Dr. Daz.,

"Perhaps the directors will generously agree to pay .........................."


Maybe the directors might like to consider reimursing small shareholders for out of pocket legal costs, financial advisors fees, in regard to them having to ascertain where they now stand in their new found position in the company. Finding out what rights and procedures they have avialable to them can be time consuming and not inexpensive. Their new found position was, after all, none of their making.


MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Apr 9 2011, 10:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Just a further thought on Qiagen's reference to Cellestis' "new products under evaluation".

At previous CST A.G.M.'s I've attended, when the subject of interim updates or three monthly figures was raised, the response from the top table was that these could be "lumpy or messy" and additionally there were "commercial in confidence" issues to be considered.

Well, I would think that at the top of the list for commercial in confidence would be products that were in a company's pipeline. What happens if the Scheme of Arrangement falls over. No doubt Qiagen have had a nice little look into CST's future range of products and presumably how far down the track they are with them.

Definitely not a good situation I would have thought.


MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Apr 8 2011, 08:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Griggy,

Re: "Several new products under evaluation"


Tony Radford did say at the Shaw Stockbroking presentation in February, and to paraphrase, "currently CST are engaged in six different technologies, but not all necessarily will break through".

That statement seems a fair way from 'being under evaluation'. If the situation was, in fact, as Tony Radford stated at the Shaw presentation then I don't think Qiagen would be highlighting it in the manner they did.


MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Apr 7 2011, 09:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

whisper,

Back in the Annual Report of 2001 (the first such report) R1 and R2 owned 33.8% of the shareholdings, spread over the four largest shareholders - them + a family company. This was down to a 27.9% holding in 2005 and in 2007 it was 25%. The 2010 Annual Report again saw a drop - from the 25% to 23.9%.


MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Apr 6 2011, 08:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

So if anybody is interested in these sorts of things, there have been 96 (this is number 97) posts on Sharescene regarding Cellestis today. Demonstrates the level of interest, and no doubt frustration needing to be vented, by we group of shareholders.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Apr 6 2011, 01:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

But their subsidiary is an Australian registered company. See A1Investor's earlier post.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Apr 6 2011, 12:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Shaw Stockbroking in their 'Morning Comments' today say more about the NICE guidelines than the takeover activity. They commented:

"Cellestis Gets NICE Recommendations.
Cellestis (CST MCap $281M) is expected to benefit from the revised guidelines for the Clinical Diagnosis and Management of Tuberculosis put out by the U.K.'s National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) during March, 2011. Whereas the previous guidelines only recommended the use of Interferon Gamma Release Assays (IGRA's) such as CST'S Quantiferon-TB test, as a follow up to a positive Tuberculin Skin Test (TST), the revised guidelines outline a number of clinical situations where IGRA's are recommended as the initial test for TB infection. These include testing young migrants from high prevalence countries, outbreak situations where large numbers need to be screened, people vaccinated with the BCG vaccine, HIV patients and other immune-suppressed people and a number of healthcare workers.

"The stimulus for NICE to revise their guidelines came from a recognition that IGRAs were now being commonly used and were supported by extensive scientific evidence and literature. In addition to being significantly more efficient in terms of only requiring a single clinical visit, the reliability of test results from IGRAs have been proven to be significantly higher than TST's which can lead to cost savings through significantly reducing the number of false positives that require additional visits. Other than CST, only one other company has a commercially available and approved IGRA for TB, Oxford Immunotec (private). Their T-Spot test has had limited uptake in the market due to it requiring a number of manual steps to perform.

"The attractiveness of CST's test has been highlighted by a takeover offer from Dutch diagnostics company Qiagen (MCap US4.3B) at $3.55 per share valuing CST at $340M. In the absence of a superior offer, the transaction has been unanimously recommended by CST's Board and will be voted on by shareholders in late June."


MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Apr 6 2011, 08:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Puzzled, you say: "I wonder how much Q & A the Chair will permit?"

I expect that if Chairman Ron indicated that time for questions had expired, then a motion from the floor moving dissent from the Chairman's ruling would be in order. And no doubt shareholder anger and frustration would well and truly carry such a motion.

Maybe it might be a prudent move for those attending to read up on meeting procedure beforehand just to know what can and can't be put from the floor.

MM

  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Apr 4 2011, 07:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

45,000 to vote no.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Apr 4 2011, 02:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

I had a look in on Rog's blog a few minutes ago. He had a very short, almost detached sounding post:

"MARKET MADNESS
With the deal to acquire Cellestis @ $3.55 p.s. an almost foregone conclusion you would wonder why holders continue to sell at a discount. Certainly the buyers are snapping them up"

Sounds like Rog isn't too upset about today's events consideringl the massive amount of time he has put in over the years digging up and relaying information to his readers and always pointing out the potential of CST. You would have to wonder why he isn't as p.....d off as the others of us here.


MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Apr 4 2011, 10:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello EB,

I suppose a person shouldn't be raising too many hypotheticals in one day, but I wonder if Tony or Jim are approaching a bit of burn-out - the've been at it for quite a while now. Might want to smell the roses. No alternate succession plan in place. As I say probably shouldn't be trying to second guess.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Apr 4 2011, 10:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

At the Shaw Stockbrocking Update in February Tony Radford fielded a number of questions from the floor. One of these questions was a random/hypothetical whch asked (and this is when the share price was at $2.60 / $2.70) - if a takeover offer of SAY $5 per share was received what would your position be as a major shareholder and as a director?

Tony appeared to give it earnest consideration before conceding that as at that price ($5.00) - being about double what a shareholder could currently get on the market, he would in the end have to give such an offer his OK.

So from a grudging acceptance at $5.00 it's a heck of a drop in six weeks to give the green light to $3.55. As I say it all appeared to be very hypothetical in the raising of the question but Jim was serious enough in giving an earnest answer.

Makes me wonder if there's more to it than meets the eye.

Not happy Jan.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Mar 29 2011, 10:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello all,

Shaw Stockbroking continues to give CST their recommendation. In their 'Morning Comments' email today they refer to their 'Shaw Research Monitor' publication for the June 2011 Quarter. The 'Morning Comments' say ...'We highlight ten stock in the report that we believe are of particular value.....stock opportunities in the current market include......CST.....etc.'

And from the Monitor publication they reiterate much of what they previously mentioned in saying"
'TB or Not TB
* Despite the strong A$, CST generated HY profit of $5.7M on $22.5M worth of sales of its unique diagnostic test for tuberculosis (TB). We are forecasting full year sales and profit of $52.1M and $11.0M respectively.

* The third generation of CST's diagnostic test, called QFT-TB In-Tube GOLD, is approved in all key markets including US, Europe and Japan. In many of these markets use of the test is being specifically recommended by regulatory bodies for most situations when it is necessary to test for a latent TB infection.
*While most of the cases of active TB disease occur in developing countries, TB remains a major public health issue in developed countries. Infections easily spread in environments where people are in close contact (prisons, hospitals, hospices etc) and, if left untreated, can result in a potentially fatal disease. The WHO estimates around 50M tests for latent TB are performed in the developed countries each year.
* CST's test replaces the 110yr old Mantoux test which is inefficient and unreliable, particularly in populations that have received the BCG vaccine for TB. While changing clinical practice takes time, CST's test is getting good traction in the market with strong support from key opinion leaders, scientific literature and regulatory bodies. We believe the company will have little difficulty in maintaining its historical sales growth of 35% - 50% pa with the potential for a major step change as the test becomes adopted as best clincal practice."

The report then shows as 'Forecasts':
"Earnings c.p.s. 2010(A) 8.6, 2011(E) 11.5, 2012(E) 19.2.
Dividend c.p.s. 2010(A) 5.0 2011(E) 6.5, 2012(E) 10.5. "

They still give their target price at $3.75 and a BUY recommendation.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Mar 25 2011, 09:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello to all,

Shaw Stockbroking have again given CST a mention in their 'Morning Comments' which was emailed to their clients today. They reiterate their their BUY recommendation and say:

"The third generation of CST's diagnostic test, called QFT-TB In-Tube GOLD, is approved in all key markets including US, Europe and Japan. In many of these markets use of the test is being specifically recommended by regulatory bodies for most situations when it is necessary to test for a latent TB infection. CST's test replaces the 110yr old Mantoux test which is inefficient and unreliable, particularly in populations that have receiveed the BCG vaccine for TB. While changing clinical practice takes time, CST's test is getting good traction in the market with strong support from key opinion leaders, scientific literature and regulatory bodies. We believe the company will have little difficulty in maintaining its historical sales growth of 35%-50% pa with the potential for a major step change as the test becomes adopted as best clinical practice."

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Mar 3 2011, 07:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello J.,

And similarly the drop in Net Profit After Tax to $11m. is down 6.8% from their earlier figure of $11.8m. But as you say, long term looking pretty good.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Mar 3 2011, 09:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello all,

Shaw Stockbroking released on Tuesday this week a "Company Profile" on Cellestis. The background in the Profile is pretty much the same as in their "Company Report" of 10th. February. Their price target in the "Company Report" of $3.75 remains. They appear to have made minor adjustments to a few of their forecasts:
Forecast total revenues ($m) 2011 - previously $55.4, now $52.1
2012 - previously $74.7, now $72.7
2013 - previously $98.9, now $96.4
Forecast profit after tax ($m) 2011 - previously $11.8, now $11.0
2012 - previously $17.6, now $18.4
2013 - previously $26.8, now $27.9
Forecast dividend 2011 - previously 7cents, now 6.5cents
2012 - previously 10.5cents, now 10.5cents
2013 - previously 15cents, now 15cents.

As CST half yearly results came out on 14th. February, some few days after Shaw's Report was released there apparently was the need for the tweaking they have made - a little less in future turnover, but a slight increase in forecast for after tax profits in 2012 and 2013 (as well as a slight profit drop in 2011).

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Feb 23 2011, 02:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Jamesm,

I realise that it's after the event now (re Pan's announcement), but in future if you get the announcement icon on your watch list with your on-line broker, but the announcement has yet to be loaded to view, you can often get it by going to the ASX own website and search through their announcements link. The ASX often seem to load before the on-line brokers do.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Feb 20 2011, 06:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Vin888



Re: When taxes become payable.



I don't know what the position is overseas with regard to CST's subsiduaries that trade in other countries. But CST here in Australia would be subject to the PAYG quarterly system of tax payments. Based upon the tax paid in the prior year, so the instalments are calculated for the current year. And after all, it's only the Australian tax payments that make for franking credits on the dividends that are paid.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Feb 20 2011, 06:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Big mumma,

Q. "Why the presentations - did you ask him?"


No, I didn't. I suspect it's all tied in with the change of attitude that started at the AGM when they came out and gave us some guidance with their forecasts. Management, on this thread, for a long time have been portrayed as conservative or guarded and probably this had to do with the fact that whilst they were confident in their product they couldn't put a time-frame on things. It seems now that this no longer presents the problem that it previously did. Whether their change of attitude is all of their own doing or to do with yielding to shareholder or institutional pressure, who's to know.

Anyway, that's my take on it.


MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Feb 18 2011, 07:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello All,

I attended the Cellestis' Presentation at Shaw Stockbroking in Sydney today. There were about 30 in attendance and from what I gathered a number of those present were from Shaw's own stockbroking team.

Much of Tony Radford's presentation was in giving a basic background of TB - the disease, tradional and current testing procedures and treatments and also Cellestis' approach in marketing and selling. This no doubt was to give a general background to the Shaw team in order for them to be somewhat knowledgeable when they might be introducing/recommending clients to CST.

The items that Malta covered from the presentation earlier in the week were pretty much there again. Tony was very confident for Japan and the US for future increase in sales. He said the gross profit margin should be steady, however overheads as a percentage will diminish proportionately as turnover increases, although R. & D. would be increasing. Currently they are engaged in six different technologies though not all will break through.

A 30% growth rate was readily foreseeable and indeed, no favourable event was needed to attain that figure.

They still have an eye out for a suitable acquisition, something compatable, where an existing manufacturing and distribution base was in existence.

Re China - Tony indicated they would not be in a hurry - happy to have a humble start. He felt that the business climate in China was improving all the time, although the situation needed to be closely monitored.

India was hard to predict as the distributor there seemed to regularly vary their outlook on how things were going. Tony was definitely not interested in Russia.

I did hear Tony say that it was his ninth presentation this week. Don't know where all the others were.

So, I suppose it remains to be seen how the Shaw brokers might influence their clients, should those clients indicate they are interested in additional investments or in swapping some of their investments.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Feb 15 2011, 12:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

"CST are presenting at Shaws today"


I take it that is a Melbourne presentation as Shaws in Sydney are hosting Dr. Radford this Friday (18th). Hopefully I can get to it.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Feb 15 2011, 10:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Cellestis seems to be uppermost in the thoughts of the good folk at Shaw Stockbroking, getting another mention in their dispatches today. Their MORNING COMMENTS mail-out, just sent out has this to say:

"CELLESTIS (CST)

"SOLID SALES GROWTH

"Despite facing a fairly cyclonic currency headwind, CST have reported very good growth in revenue from sales of their proprietary TB diagnostic test, QFT-TB GOLD in-tube. Historically, QFT sales have been much stronger in the second half of the financial year with only 40%-45% recorded in the first half.

"There is no doubt that the strength of the AUD is having a major impact on the AUD reported sales from all companies who generate revenue off-shore. The average AUD/USD is up 9.1% pcp 1H FY 11 (0.95 v 0.87) while the AUD is up 21% on the Euro (0.72 v 0.59). Despite this, CST, which currently has the majority of its sales in US and Europe, has reported 24% growth in sales.

"The sales growth in local currency (which better reflects the increase in the number of tests being sold) clearly shows very strong sales growth of 41% in the US, 25% in EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) and 46% in Australia/Japan. Japan alone, one of the company's larger markets, reported 30% sales growth.

"On an operational level, the company maintained a gross profit margin of 67% and growth in operational expenses was in line with our expectations. The company's Operating Profit was up 46% to $5.7M and the reported NPAT up 32.6%. The effective tax rate was 27.1% v 18% pcp as the company has used most of its tax credits. The eps was 4.3cps, up 30.3%pcp from 3.3cps.

"The company has declared a fully franked interim dividend of 2.0cps (1.5cps pcp) with a record date of 25 February and payable on 11 March 2011."


MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Feb 14 2011, 10:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Another mention by Shaw Stockbroking this morning. In their mail-out "WEEKLY CONVICTION STOCKS" they say:

"CELLESTIS:
CST - TB or not TB

* Share price has declined despite solid growth in revenue, profit and dividends.

* Strong growth drivers including recommendation of use of test in guidelines issued by various regulatory bodies.

* Very strong competive position with no other comparable products suitable for high throughput screening.

* Expecting sold revenue growth (30% - 50%) for next few years with increasing net profit margin.

* Potential for rapid growth in the future if test gets adopted as standard best practice."


They also give the actual for 2010 and estimates for 2011 & 2012 for Revenue, Net Profit & Cash position as mentioned in previous posts. They reiterate the BUY recommendation and the target of $3.75.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Feb 11 2011, 01:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Shaw Stockbroking have also covered CST in their "Morning Comments" mail-out of today. It refers to their detailed coverage and in effect gives a summary:

"CST's lead product is a revolutionary test for detection of infection with the microbe that causes tuberculosis or TB. With strong revenue and profit growth anticipated in the next few years, we are initiating coverage of CST with a BUY recommendation and a 12-month price target of $3.75.
"The company's 3rd generation test, Quantiferon-TB Gold in Tube, is now approved in most major markets and is in a format is compatiblle with standard, high throughput pathology procedures. Furthermore, awareness of the test is growing dramatically and it is starting to be specifically recommended or included in regulatory guidelines.
"Getting Traction - Revenue & Profit Growth
"In FY 10 CST reported sales of $40.3 and an NPAT of $8.3M (8.5cps) with the Directors declaring dividends of 5.0cps. While FY10 was a solid result, it was impacted by the stronger AUD and the effects of the GFC which made it more difficult to get traction with new customers. Despite this, in local currency terms the company had 50% sales growth in the US and 30% growth in Europe.
"We are expecting the company to generate sales growth at least around that level for the next few years and, on that basis, believe there is significant upside from CST's current price of $2.40. However, we believe there is the possibility that CST will exceed our current forecast due to:
* greater awareness leading to higher adoption rate.
* increasing validation from clinical evidence and key opinion leaders support.
* recommended use of QFT and its inclusion in regulatory guidelines.
"With less that 5% of the potential addressable market currently using the QFT, we see there is scope for significant sales growth.
"Big Need, Big Market
"Around one third of the world's population is infected with the TB microbe and over 9m each year develop TB disease with 2m of them dying as a result. While seen as a 3rd world disease, TB is becoming more prevalent in the developed world and, as drug resistant strains are starting to develop.
"The current standard test for TB is over 100 years old, unreliable, inefficient and cannot be used in people who have been vaccinated against TB. CST's test addresses these shortcomings and, with nearly 50M tests for latent TB persformed each year in developed countries, the company's product is targeting a potential market opportunity of approximately $1B."

Shaw then gives the projections for revenue and profit for 2011 and 1012 as mentioned by D'Lids.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Feb 9 2011, 07:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

A1

"the hordes of people waiting on the sidelines..."

C.... Come On

S.... Send In

T.... The Cavalry.


MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Feb 6 2011, 12:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello all,

Sorry, sorry, sorry.

I thought my calculations must have had weak point somewhere.

Mr. FG sent me a P.M. pointing out that other projections he had on file showed COH with a $317m. forecast 2010/11 net profit.
This in turn made me go looking into COH with the result that on referring once again to the original Fin Review article, I discovered that the table of figures I had quoted from was forecasting the figures for SIX months and not as I had taken them to be - that of forecast 2010/11 figures.

Sorry if I arosed interest in anybody unnecessarily.

As with everyone on this thread am looking forward to the six monthly report in a week or so.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Feb 5 2011, 07:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Cellestians,

In reading an article in this week-end's Fin. Review, there was an accompanying table showing some ASX company's 2010 profits compared to their forecast 2010/11 profits.

Listed among them was Cochlear with a forecast current year profit of $86.3 million. Cochlear currently has a market cap. of $4,415m.

Now IF we take guidance from CST's AGM (and we've heard nothing to date to the contrary) the mid-range forecast increase in net profit (35%) should give CST close to $11m. profit this year. IF we then accept the AGM projection that the 35% increase is achievable into the following year, this would mean a $15m. profit in 2011/12.

I acknowledge the couple of big IFs, but to continue.

Now, $15m. as a proportion of Cochlear's $86m. is 17.5%. So that, in 12 months time CST should have a market cap. of 17.5% of Cochlear's current market cap. 17.5% of $4,415m. (Cochlear's current cap.) calculates to $770m.

The present market cap. of CST is $230m. An increase of $230 to $770m. is an increase of 2.3 times. An increase of 2.3 to CST's current $2.40 share price would give $5.52 in twelve months time. Unless of course the market still has a set against CST or some shareholders are still wanting out in a small cap. stock or people are still tied to historical figures for their valuing.

So I think I'll be holding for the moment.

OR, am I missing something in my approach to this??

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jan 30 2011, 08:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

I came to pretty much to same result Puzzled. On the basis of a 35% (mid-range of guidance) lift in turnover that would give $54.5 m. for the full year 2010-11. As the first 6 months have been the lesser of the two six monthly periods (45% in 2009-10) that would give $24.5 m. turnover for the 6 months to 31.12.2010.
Net profit has been at 20% of turnover and this gives just under $5m. net profit for the half year. The AGM heard a couple of times of dividend payments to be at 60% of the net profit. This would give a dividend of 3c. per share.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jan 23 2011, 08:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

beer4mark'

"WHAT'S GOING ON WITH THE COMPANY?"

Price of spot copper per $US tonne on the LME - 14th. January, .... $9622
Price of spot copper per $US tonne on the LME - 21st. January, .... $9368

Closing price PNA (14/1/11) 88 cents. Closing price PNA (21/1/11) 83 1/2 cents.

So I think you'll find the copper price has a real impact on PNA's daily fortunes on the ASX.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jan 23 2011, 05:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Macduffy,

You mention CST's current share price and its relationship to the historical earnings and that this then gave a generous P.E. of 28:1. You also posted in a similar vein a month ago, again mentioning the "historical" P.E. figures.

Now, these "historical" figures are those covering 1st July, 2009 to 30th June, 2010. That means figures from 18 months ago (July, 2009) to six months ago (June, 2010). How relevant are 18, 17, 16, 15 (etc.) month old figures when assessing whether to buy stock in a company now? Or for an existing holders to decide whether to buy additional stock,to hold or to sell.

What is needed for current decision making is current information. The best of the current information is that given at the A.G.M. and the target of a 30% to 40% rise on 2010 figures in 2010-11. As Henrietta pointed out in a post on 4th. of this month, we have not heard of any revision, so we must assume that the company is on course to achieve this. After all, management will have the 3 monthly accounts to September, 2010, turnovers for October and November (possibly even monthly accounts) and at least have turnover figures for December, 2010. So management are well placed to amend their forecast if needed.

I posted on 10th January on the possible implication to the share price if the targets are achieved. Some posters thought I may have been conservative, bearing in mind the economies of scale of increased turnover and the relationship of that increase to items of expenditure.

Analysts choose to do their valuations using estimates for the current year and then to forecast further ahead.

So my question is - is what point do you drop off the historical to give way current information as a basis for assessing a company's share valuation? As I say, some of the historical data is well over 12 months old.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jan 18 2011, 10:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Yes Henrietta, as of five minutes ago, Mr. or Mrs 315 wanted to buy 315 shares @ $2.44 and also to sell 315 @ $2.46. Blowed if I can understand it.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jan 14 2011, 02:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Yes Beer Man, Off-the-mark mentions the Eureka Report coverage. See also my post of 20th December, 2010 quoting that report

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jan 12 2011, 07:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Off-the-mark & Kelpie,

I don't know any more than what I might read in the pages of the financial press and also PNA's own announcements.

But Kelpie, have a read of PNA's ASX announcement of 20/10/10. It has what they list as "key fundamentals" mentioning a mine life of 10 + years from 2011 plus giving a table of Ore Reserves. It might help your researching.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jan 10 2011, 08:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello to all,

I've just read Trevor Sykes' latest book "Six Months of Panic" (a very good read). And to quote a couple of lines:

'The price/earnings ratio of stocks varies according to market sentiment. In depressed times, they might go to single figures, below 10:1. A good stock in normal times should sell in a range between 12:1 and 16:1. Anything over 20:1 is regarded as high unless the company has excellent growth prospects.'

Following on from Henrietta's post of 4th. January saying that as we haven't heard from CST management we therefore might be "pretty much on target" and so the guidelines given for 2010/11 are probably on track. And as we have now gone past the half way point in 2010/11 it's also reasonable to be talking current year earnings.

That being the case, with the guidance given at the A.G.M. of an increase in operating profit of between 30% to 40%(and let's settle at 35%) this would give a rise in earnings per share to 11.6cents (8.59cents in y.e. 2010 + 35%).

What P.E. to use?

Well, if we go with 20:1 P.E. that gives a valuation of $2.32. If you go a little higher to allow for the blue sky in the confident forecasts we were given and use a P.E. of say 25:1, then the valuation becomes $2.90. The price, as is often pointed out by posters has been hovering around $2.40 since the end of August (well before any guidance figures were given and less than a couple of months after the close of 30th. June, 2010) and a $2.40 share price on 30.6.2010 earnings is a P.E. of 28:1. So if we use a P.E. of 28:1 on the 11.6cents per share for current year earnings we have a valuation of $3.25.

Now, Dr. Radford gave a cautionary note about 2011/12 being a bit too far for accurate estimates, but nevertheless said there was a target for achieving similar growth again. If that can hold up then a 35% increase from 11.6cents (the estimate for 2010/11) becomes 15.6cents earnings per share in 2011/12. Once again the P.E. calcs.
: on 20:1 - a share value of $3.12
: on 25:1 - a share value of $3.90
: on 28:1 - a share value of $4.36

So in twelve months from now we will be past the half way point in 2011/12 and should then be talking of that year as current year earnings. And hopefully management will have given their guidance and hopefully it will be at least a 35% increase upon a 35% increase.

Here's to better days ahead. Fingers crossed. Patiently holding.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Dec 31 2010, 08:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello All,

And with yesterday's announcement and the jump in share price it's taken PNA to number 88 on the top 100 stocks according to today's Australian newspaper. So if the share price remains there or thereabouts PNA should then graduate to the ASX 100 listing. Also appearing in the top 100 stocks for the past month and a half or so is Campbell Bros. which has a market cap. of $2.670b. and is listed at number 87. PNA's market cap. is $2.645b. The significance of that is the common directorship of Nerolie Withnall who has been a long time director for both companies from more humble times to where they are today. Congrats. to Nerolie.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Dec 22 2010, 03:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Yes Thommo, a very good point.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Dec 22 2010, 08:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Henrietta,

Good to see you on this thread also.

When I look at the Commsec charts (10 year price history) it shows that PNA reached its high of $1.18 in April, 2008.

My reference to a typo was to indicate that the article, showing a price of $2.12, was giving an incorrect figure. Perhaps I wasn't expressing myself too clearly. It's often the case.


MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Dec 20 2010, 08:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

From this evening's Alan Kohler's Eureka Report:

"PanAust (PNA). The newsletters have had a buy recommendation on this hopeful little gold miner for a while but their levels of excitement rose again after PanAust's latest production guidance. PanAust expects gold production in 2010 to rise to 60,000 ounces, copper lifts to 67,000 tonnes and silver increases to 500,000 ounces.

"With gold hovering near record highs at $US1376 an ounce - as is silver which is about $US29 an ounce, and copper experiencing a slight pullback from five-year highs - this is very good news indeed.

"PanAust is trading around 82cents, almost double the year low of 42cents but significantly below the record high of $2.12. ** However, the newsletters think fair value for the stock is around $1.10.

"As the Laotian Phu Kham mine keeps beating PanAust's own output forecasts at a low cash cost of 90cents a pound, one newsletter says this operation is effectively printing money.

"And the growth options are quite enticing. Phu Kham can be expanded alongside neighbour Ban Houayxai, as can the Chilean mine Inca de Oro.

"And while the bears say 2011 will be the year of the Great Gold Crash, others say that thanks to the huge amount of liquidity generously provided by the US Federal Reserve (which is showing no signs of turning off the tap) high longer-term gold prices are here to stay.

"Silver is being picked to surpass gold in terms of return in 2011, but copper is our newsletters' preferred commodity.

"With low growth in worldwide copper output and expectations of supply constraints far outweighing demand over the next 12 months, PanAust appears poised for further share price growth.

"Investors are recommended to buy PanAust at current levels"


** Must be a typo - MM



MM


  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Dec 20 2010, 05:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Well it was a sort of strong run, until the profit takers came along.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Dec 20 2010, 01:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

From this morning's PURE SPECULATION column in The Australian:

"COPPER SQUEZE

"Copper's too tight, according to the analysts at BNP Paribas in London. The red metal finished at a heady $US9070 a tonne on Friday, but BNP produced a couple of interesting fugures. You could buy all the copper now in London Metal Exchange warehouses for a little more than $US3 billion, which is not a lot of money when you're talking international speculation.
"Earlier this month, it was reported by The Wall Street Journal, and several London newspapers, that JPMorgan had grabbed half the LME copper stock for about $US1.5 billion. This set the internet metals sites afire with speculation. But last week, according to a Reuters report JPMorgan denied it had amassed a large copper forward position. Yet LME data shows that 90 per cent of all the copper in its warehouses and cash contracts is controlled by a single entity. The interesting thing about JPMorgan's denial is that it only said it did not hold 90 per cent - but would not provide any comment on whether it had a dominant position.
"Next year's copper deficit is forecast at 500,000 tonnes. On Friday, LME stocks stood at 361,000 tonnes. The big squeeze is coming, folks.
"By the way, if you're interested in cornering a market, you can now buy what tin remains in LME warehouses for just $US400 million. Squeeze alert there, too."


Don't know if the above article has had any influence on PNA's strong run again today but obviously would not have done any harm to the share price.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Dec 15 2010, 03:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Tuapui and Nifty49,

At yesterday's close of 82.5c. PNA then had a market cap. of $2.438m. I don't have a full book of information but I could turn up when PNA's price was $1.05 back in November 2007 its market cap. was $1.493m. So the company has grown by 63% in those three years (the increase in its market cap.).

What happened of course was the great swag of additional shares that were issued to enable the company to organise its finances following the G.F.C. which has diluted everybody's holding.

For the company to have a share price now of $1.25 would give it a market cap. of $3.694m. and a ranking of number 69 on the ASX top companies. Presently PNA is at number 94. That jump to a market cap. of $3.694 would reflect further growth of 51.5% which hopefully might be achievable but I think a bit ambitious at the moment.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Dec 10 2010, 12:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Merrywise,

QUOTE "That is why I think the new TB test is a positive for CST, they will be a great combination in tackling global TB when the authorities recognise the opportunity".


So perhaps Cellestis' management could issue a press release mentioning the new test and where Cellestis sees itself as a consequence of it. Words along the lines of what you have just said - a positive, a great opportunity etc. etc. Something to let us humble shareholders know how they are thinking.

And its nearly four weeks since the AGM, a reiteration of the profit guidelines would not go amiss either.

I think CST shareholders need some positive re-inforcements from time to time after the beating the share price has had of recent times.

Still holding.


MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Dec 8 2010, 11:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hopefully the cavalry can't be too far away now.


MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Dec 2 2010, 08:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

From this morning's City Beat column in The Australian:

"SO WHO"S MEDDLING WITH COPPER?

"Someone's up to something in the LME copper market, according to The Wall Street Journal. It understands that one single (unidentified) trader holds, or recently held, more than 50 per cent of LME copper stockpiles and notes the premium for spot over three-month delivery metal had jumped to the highest level in more than two years.

"Three-month metal usually trades at a slight premium to spot (you don't actually want to take delivery, do you?) but as of yesterday the spot price of $US8417.50 a tonne was $US57.50 above the three-month level, which is the highest differential that market has seen since October 2008.

"LME data showed the mystery investor held between 50 and 79 percent of LME copper stockpiles from November 22 for at least four days. The price is not actually running at peak levels: they were set on November 9 when spot hit $US8864 a tonne, the highest it's been since the salad days of July 2008 when it hit exactly $US8900 on July 2. And in between times? How about a low of $US2809.50 struck on Christmas Eve 2008, meaning a drop of 68.4 per cent in about six months.

'Someone appears to have been trying to squeeze the market' commented Hwang Il Doo, a senior trader at Korea Exchange Bank in Seoul. 'This may help push the three-month price higher'.

"Copper stockpiles monitored by the exchange have declined 29 per cent this year to 355,750 tonnes, the lowest since October last year."


MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Nov 22 2010, 11:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Henrietta,

Possibly the D'Lids observation of a fund selling off a substantial holding. Although from looking at the numbers on the buy side of the market depth that doesn't seemed to have abated over the time either.

Although not on the CST thread I read in The Australian this morning an article re Reece Plumbing which I thought was close to the mark on some things that were said here on CST last week.

www.theaustralian.com.au/business/plumbing-supplier-still-a-family-affair/story-e6frg8zx-1225957982510

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Nov 16 2010, 01:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Ronin,

Yes, I'm not sure whether this provision may be covering a situation when a company, having had a revaluation of an asset (upwards of course), and then wishes to pay a dividend from the profit reserve that has been generated. Not an area that I've had a need to know about.

But if you don't pay dividends out of profits there won't be any franking credits attaching to them.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Nov 16 2010, 10:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello All,

I returned home from the AGM late last night and found there had been robust discussion the Sharescene site. Much of the matters raised at the AGM had already been dissected by posters here.

First impression was the "visitors" section on the table for registering your attendance. Having asked the question last year if the Financial Press were in attendance and being curtly told by the Chairman "No, it's a shareholder's meeting" I wasn't game to put my neck out and ask who the visitors might be.

I noticed that the meeting room (same location as 2009) had seating arranged for 190. It was a full house last year but it looked closer to 140 or 150 this time around. I hope Malta was there with his tape recorder - he gave us a top coverage in 2009.
Tony Radford made the point a couple of times during his addreass and later in question time that it was the first time that the company has issued growth guidelines. This change in attitude seemed to be in conflict with Ron Pitcher's chairman's letter to shareholders in the Annual Report where Ron said "While we remain steadfast in our view not to provide forecasts, you should expect significant organic growth in 2011". So I don't know if Ron was overruled on that one.

The number of tests, the turnover figures and the bottom line have been previously mentioned on earlier posts. One item I did look up was the Lodge Partners report (Feb. 2010) with their figures of sales growth of 71% in 2011 and 78% in 2012. So you might wonder how they came up with those figures.

There were a couple of questions asked of the $20m. bank balance and the company share price. And as has been previously mentioned there can't be dividends being paid from the $20m. (it's source mainly being the share issue of 2004) - dividends must be paid from profits. The 60% pay out ratio was also mentioned a couple of times. As to the share price, Ron Pitcher was firm in his line that it is determined by buyers and sellers in the market and is not a responsibility of the Board. Got the impression he could have been reading up on Forrest's or Rog's blog or a Macduffy post on this forum.

Company I.P. had discussion also and the need to create high I.P. barriers to generic competion post 2017. The R.& D. department were mindful of this need. I think this is where Henrietta's "tweaking" comes into play. We are not being told of the I.P. property (the patents, their date of expiry) as this is an area where you engage the legal profession to monitor you applications and it becomes very unwieldly as a consequence. Ron Pitcher acknowledged that this information was contained in the original company prospectus - but he didn't say why it wasn't unwieldly then.

An interesting aside was possibly the response from a question (mine) as to whether the Board might consider a woman as a director. This follows the ASX taking an interest in this subject and other recent newspaper articles. Ron Pitcher replied all appointments are on merit and you do women a disservice if you appoint purely because of a person's gender. Tony Radford said he had better choose his words carefully as his wife (Deborah - a shareholder in CST) was in the audience. Mrs. Radford is a current director on the Bendigo Adelaide Bank board. Then Ron Pitcher spoke again but started to mention the biological role as a restriction for women to pursue their career path, but perhaps ralising he was entering dangerous territory went back to the appointments being based on merit. Now, as you don't put an advert. in the paper or on the net for 'director wanted' it's probably a case of where you choose to look as to the candidates that you eventually have on you short list. No discussion on that.

The meeting closed at 3.28pm.
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Nov 12 2010, 04:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

David,

There is also this from Forrest's blog (July 2010 - headed One Page Summary):

"INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY (IP). Through a combination of patents and licensing the QTF-TB Gold product is well protected until at least 2020. Patents over the In-Tube technology used in the diagnostic further provided protection for other products through to at least 2020."


So perhaps what's needed is something to be issued from the company.
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Nov 12 2010, 04:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello again David,

Been sorting out a few papers and came upon the Lodge Partner analysis of last February. It had this to say:

"COMPETITORS-
"While the core QuantiFERON patents have expired in all markets except the US (where they remain current until mid to late 2011), there are some formidable barriers to entry for potential competitors. Cellestis has now built an impressive clinical trial database, which would be both expensive and time consuming to replicate, and necessary to gain marketing approval.
"They have also achieved inclusion of the QuantiFERON in the
national TB control guidelines for major markets - and these guidelines will drive the use of the product. Again, very expensive and time consuming to replicate.
"Another key barrier to enry is the involvement of
key opinion leaders and their support for the QuantiFERON test - a key focus of the Cellestis team. Similarly, having built close relationships with key customers over a long period of time, Cellestis is in a strong position to defend its market share.
"Finally, Cellestis has the
early mover advantage in gaining acceptance, and as we have seen with the skin test it is difficult to take share from an entrenched product in this sector."


MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Nov 12 2010, 01:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Merrywise,

QUOTE " And what's more it is the fact that they actually like this company and hang onto the shares that is part of the problem.


I'm of a view that so many shareholders have been in for so long now that they are worried that if they sell then that will be the time the share price of CST will make a move and they will have missed the boat.
Take this year for example, posts here on Sharescene have looked forward to news of the half-yearly figures. This was then followed for hopeful signs to come from the long awaited CDC guidelines. Still not a lot happening - let's wait for the annual figures, not much there, so now let's wait to see what comes from the AGM. It's been a case of there being something to be looking forward to that deters people from selling out or selling down. Many posters here on Sharescene have indicated that they were topping up, such is the share price at the moment. We are hanging on or topping up and therefore not selling.

So we either LIKE the company or we have HOPE in the company. Some of us maybe both of those ingredients.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Nov 11 2010, 07:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello David,

QUOTE: " Is anyone up to date on the current IP position - how long before key patents expire?"

I was wondering along similar lines and have on notice a question for the Auditor at the AGM (refer to company Notice of Annual Meeting - Ordinary Business Item 1, Accounts and Reports). This says that a shareholder with a question to the auditor is invited to write in for the matter to be responded to at the AGM.

I asked whether the company auditors verify the existence of the company's I.P. The auditor's report attached to the Annual Report says procedures are performed to obtain audit evidence about the amounts and disclosures in the financial report. The thing being that the internally generated I.P. isn't in the financial report. So does the I.P. get overlooked?

As a follow up I asked if the company might consider having a schedule in the Annual Report listing the patent, the expiry date, the countries where applicable etc. I also pointed out that this information was given in Cellestis' original prospectus back in 2001.

But having then read Henrietta's observation about some possible tweaking I'm now thinking the answer to this will most likely be that it's deemed commercial in confidence.

We'll see on Monday.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Nov 9 2010, 07:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Elleburra,

ditto - Like you I have sent Emails to the company secretary and received a prompt and courteous reply. It's the other areas that you speak of that are of a concern. An invitation to the press to the AGM wouldn't go astray either.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Nov 8 2010, 04:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Henrietta,

That's an excellent read. Just hope I'm still around (and therefore probably still holding CST) by the time these things are implemented.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Nov 8 2010, 01:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Elleburra,

From the blog of which you quote there was a preamble to the pithy comment you highlighted. This was:

"The falling shareprice has enraged some (CST) shareholders to produce comments along the line of 'Our management team's job is to run the business in our best interests etc. etc.' and then to ask as to when did shareholders get to own management?"

I did post a comment on the said blog quoting from a text book of many years ago:
' Directors:
-The directors of a company are those persons constituting the board of directors whose duty it is to supervise the policy and management of the company's activities. In law, they are neither agents nor trustees for the individual shareholders, but they are their appointees, and it is the individual memebers who will benefit or suffer from the fortunes or misfortunes of the company'
I then observed - therefore, if the shareholders appoint them, the directors must be the shareholders management. Can't be anyone elses management, can't be their own management - although they (CST) might like to think so.


And what about Rupert and Frank and Jamie and Gerry (just to name a few) - try telling them that it isn't their company that they are running, that they are only stakeholders owning a share of the capital. Don't think you'd get much of a hearing.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Nov 5 2010, 07:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Kelpie,

Looking at the shares sold for the past three weeks and the numbers for the three weeks before that, we have

Shares sold 27.9.10 to 15.10.10 498,678

Shares sold 18.10.10 to 5.11.10 1,572,387

And as parcels of shares go through the number of shares listed on the sell side always keeps getting topped up to that which it was before or even greater. So the increase in selling activity and the topping up of available shares for sale would have you think that D'Lids earlier information of Lodge selling on behalf of an institutional buyer is still happening. But for how much longer. Let's assume that the increase of roughly 1.1million in share turnover is a direct result of this seller. If you look at the Top 20 holders that bigmumma provided, the 1.1million already exceeds some of the Institutions listed and is getting close to a couple of the others. And why would you need to sell down your full holding? Sell down some and keep some?

I'm afraid I don't know.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Nov 2 2010, 09:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Rog has a comprehensive coverage by "Intelligent Investor" re CST now posted on his blog.

www.quantiferon.blogspot.com

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Nov 2 2010, 08:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Henrietta,

QUOTE " In the CST case, we simply have a conservative chairman who will not make predications on sales"


add to that - and guidance on profit in addition to a reluctance/refusal to invite the financial press to the AGMs.

I've attended other company AGM's and at the table for the registration of your attendance is "visitors" - it's not an unusual thing for companies to do.

I think our chairman (and the Board) just don't want to come under the gaze and scrutiny of others. So if you give out the minimum amount of information, you then minimize the chances of your comments being challenged and perhaps filed away by disgruntled shareholders to have you account for those comments at a later time.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Oct 26 2010, 04:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Anne,

Re your post of meeting procedure at CST's 2009 A.G.M.

Go to Malta's post of 17.11.2009 for his excellent coverage of the A.G.M. His summary tells us there was 10 questions from the floor from about 200 people in attendance. One in twenty getting a chance to raise whatever may have been on their mind - not a significant figure.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Oct 26 2010, 12:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Henrietta,

QUOTE " If you have any comments or questions for the company, please write them on a separate sheet of paper and return with this form (voting form)"


Operative word being questions (plural). I think you have come up with a cunning plan for the asking of more than the one question. Trouble is they don't say when the answer to your question/s will be made - at the AGM or by mail. Maybe you still might need to attend in order to hear the answer.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Oct 23 2010, 08:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Macduffy,

"The futility of trying to talk up a stock" (your post of 22.10.2010)

But is it not a case of The Futility of Trying to Talk Up A Stock VERSUS The Consistent Pressure of an Institutional Holder Selling Down ?

This week has seen a record weekly turnover for this year in CST with 677,000 shares being traded. Despite this there are more shares listed on the sell side at the end of the week than there were at the start of the week. This would bear out D'Lids earlier post advising of sells coming from Lodge Partners for one of its Institutional clients. Had the new found interest in CST not met this selling wave who knows where we might be share price wise at the moment.

I also think that Lodge Partners might be a bit of a worry. Here is a broker whose web-site advises "research and investment advice to our Institutional and Corporate clients". Now, if they have on their books a reasonably large number of corporate and institutional clients (and they must have a goodly number, otherwise they would no longer be in business), why couldn't they match up a corporate/insto. buyer to take the parcel being offered by the seller? Lodge did a review of CST last February (price then $3.21) and gave it a 12 months price target of $5.05. With a price now near $2.50, there is a potential doubling in the course of the next four months. You would think that it shouldn't be too hard for them to sell to one of their clients on the strength of that. So have Lodge backed down on their figure of $5.05? Has anybody seen an update CST review from Lodge? I'm afraid they don't inspire me with any confidence.
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Oct 18 2010, 07:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Anne,

If your referring to David Haselhurst's 'Speculator' column, this appears regularly in Eureka. He concentrates on smaller mining company stocks. Over time, I recall Letters to the Editor in Eureka from subscribers bemoaning the fact theat by the time they had read his article and then tried to place an order the next day that the price had already moved on and they couldn't buy at David's suggested price. Eureka also mentions that he writes a monthly column for Money magazine.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Oct 18 2010, 05:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello again Anne,

QUOTE " It's hard to believe all that trading was triggered by a simple Lincoln report"

Maybe, maybe not. The Eureka web-site gives a break-down on a number of aspects of its subscribers. For instance:
# 85% are male.
# 52% are 60 + y.o.
# 27% are 50-59 y.o.
# 75% are tertiary educated.
# 24% have personal investments over $2million.
# 67% run a self managed fund.
# 35% are self funded retirees.

So you have blokes, with some time on their hands and a spare dollar or two, having a think on where to invest, and along comes an opportunity to buy into a promising company trading at its recent lows. It wouldn't surprise me if the interest sparked in today's market isn't related to Eureka and Lincoln covering the stock.
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Oct 18 2010, 10:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Anne,

The Eureka Report in question was Emailed at 4.38 pm. Friday.
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Oct 17 2010, 05:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Badger,

Author of the Eureka Report article is Michael Feller, an analysist at Lincoln Indicators. I did give him authorship credit in my post of 15th. October.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Oct 16 2010, 07:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Panners,

This weekends Sydney Morning Herald's list of top 150 ASX companies now has PNA shown at no. 93 while the weekend Australian puts PNA at no. 96. Both show the same market capital at $2.393 billion. It's been a bumpy week share price wise - Friday's trading ranged from an intra day low of 77 cents to 82 cents, some 6.5% variation for the day. Other day's ranges for the week were 8.5%, 4.5%. 6.0% and 6.8%. Seems the market doesn't quite know what to make of PNA at the moment.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Oct 16 2010, 08:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Henrietta,

I would think there wasn't much in the article that followers here on Sharescene didn't already know about. The plus would be the introduction to Eureka's readership (presumably quite a few thousand) of a company that they probably didn't know much about. It could be of interest early next week to see if any attention has been aroused.

Regards,

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Oct 16 2010, 05:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Klem,

Sorry, I can't do the cut and paste thing. But here is some editing from the Eureka Report article:

"Looking at the chart for the company (share price of CST for the previous two years), it's hard to believe that Cellestis, a developer and marketer of immune disease diagnostic products, is producing such good results and is in such good financial shape. This is a company with zero debt and which had $6.79 million in net operating cash flow in the 2010 financial year on tangible assets of $35million; in other words, a very strong return.
"In 2008, a US medical journal found the QuantiFERON system six times more accurate in predicting TB development among exposed populations than the traditional tuberculin skin test, or Mantoux test, which was developed in France in 1907 and has been used ever since.
"This is a significant development in the fieldl but like with many biotech projects it takes a long time to get end usuers, and the market, excited.
"Beyond the complications of working in the Third World, Cellestis has found that the US, Europe and Japan, in that order, alone constitute a large enough market to provide significant potential. During 2009-10, the US provided 44% of revenue, Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) 34%, and Japan and the rest of the world, including Australia, made up the rest. Growth during the last year was 49% in the US - Cellestis's core market - while growth was 31%in the EMEA region and 8% elsewhere.
"It's in the potential, however, where things get really interesting. Although Cellestis has only modest upside, of about 8% to our $2.58 valuation, our modelling takes into account only price to earnings and estimated cash flows, not the blue-sky potential.
"Cellestis's estimates, that it has penetrated just 4% of its potential market and if growth rates that Cellestis has been achieving in the US recently are anything to go by the company will still not have fully met its potential for years to come. And that, by the way, is assuming that TB remains the only major disease for which QuantiFERON technology is mainly used.
"As with many small caps in the space, swings in sentiment can have a material effect of the shareprice. The company has seen its share price surge above $4.70 on speculation about tests, earnings and agreements, only to fall again despite the fundamental picture remaining the same.
"Investors need to keep in mind that Cellestis, like all the small cap stocks, is especially prone to market gyrations, rumour mongering, day trading and illiquidity. The advantage for small investors, however, is that these stocks can also deliver superior returns as long as the investor is patient, focused on the fundamentals and disciplined.
"Obviously, too, the strong Australian dollar is crimping take-home profits significantly, but if the currency situation changes, the benefits to Cellestis compared with the rest of the market is clear.
"QuantifFERON is an exciting Australian innovation that deserves wider recognition. Having said that, Cellestis is no miracle stock. If investors can ascertain the upside while keeping their feet on the ground, stocks like Cellestis have the potential to deliver great outperformance."


MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Oct 15 2010, 04:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello All,

Alan Kohler's Eureka Report carries a positive article on Cellestis in today's issue. It's written by Michael Feller an analyst at Lincoln Indicators. Eureka is at www.eurekareport.com.au. I'm not sure if you can gain access without be a subscriber but maybe there's provision for a having a look on a trial basis.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Oct 15 2010, 09:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Bigmumma,

Questions at the A.G.M.:

I suspect that the Chairman will do as he did last year - foreshadow the finishing time of the meeting (as he didn't want the meeting just to ramble on). And true to his word he closed the meeting at the nominated time. Which leaves shareholders with a follow-up question, to that which they originally raised, or shareholders with another question to ask, nowhere to go.
So on the basis that you get one question, make it a good one.. Thoughts so far:

No financial press were in attendance to cover the 2009 A.G.M. and there was no press coverage when the long awaited and significant announcement was made during the year re the CDC guidelines. Is there a problem with CST and its relationship with the financial press which would be soothed if the press were invited to the A.G.M.'s.

The company in its Corporate Governance Statement states "a commitment to enhancing shareholder value through an ethical and transparent culture". No mention of interim financial figures or guidance to enhance shareholder value - analysts and brokers use forward earnings as their basis for share valuations but based on profits results we are valuing backwards not current valuations.

We are asked to vote for Mr. Pitcher's reappointment. Is it for two years or three years? If three, then he will be close to 75 y.o.
Does he intend to serve the full term in office?

Could perhaps Cellestis follow the current move to appoint females to the Board. Come on, let's be a little progressive.

I would also like to ask what is the criteria for being invited to the company presentations. Although I might leave this question until after the meeting and see if I can get a quite word with Brian Manuel.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Oct 14 2010, 07:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Kelpie,

Not to dwell on the subject - but there is a follow-up to the CWP share price that you raised the other day. In today's 'Australian' (Primespace liftout) there is an an article "Cedar Woods rally lures suitors". To quote an extract from the article:

"Cedar Woods managing director Paul Sadleir said he had not had approaches and attributed the latest rally to the company's quarterly update released last week. We are one of the few groups putting out forecasts for the current year" Mr Sadleir said. "We also had a bit of spike when we put out our annual results"
"The first-half result will significantly underpin the full-year earnings for the 2011 financial year" the company said. It was anticipating a full-year net profit of $24 m for the 2011 financial year.....etc. etc.


MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Oct 13 2010, 07:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Panners,

I thought the reply provided today by PNA to the ASX speeding ticket query was nicely reassuring on the the points covered in the response. It's worth bringing it up and having a read if you have not already done so.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Oct 12 2010, 06:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Off-the-mark,

I don't know any more than you might know, but I look forward to the next couple of days trading activity on PNA

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Oct 11 2010, 07:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Kelpie,

Not being familiar with CWP I looked it up via Commsec. It was a breath of fresh air, reading their ASX announcements of 1st Qtr. update, Half-year report, company update & earnings guidance.

Maybe with your CWP/CST comparison its not so much to do with the dividend being paid, its to do with management providing an up to date extract from its financials and guidance for future earnings that has given CWP the edge in share price.

For better of for worse future earnings is the way shares are valued and unless there is guidance available you wont get many analysts prepared to do a valuation and a recommendation. Our management have previously said that they were not prepared to give quarterly figures as these were "messy and lumpy". Ron Pitcher has also stated in his Letter to Shareholders in this years Annual Report "While we remain steadfast in our view not to provide forecasts, you should expect significant organic growth in 2011".

All nicely reassuring but nothing to give guidance if one were to be buying shares or looking to take up further shares in the company. I suspect that many of us on Sharescene have invested in CST an equivalent amount that could have bought a small business. If I had instead bought a Laundromat, a hairdressing salon or perhaps a backhoe machine, I'd be expecting to see figures on how the business was going. Is the turnover up, down, steady ? Is it time to inject some more capital ? Is it time to sell up and walk away ? If you invest in a business you need to have up to date information for informed decision making. If you invest in Cellestis, you'll just have to wait managements' pleasure.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Oct 11 2010, 04:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

On today's close of 82.5c, this gives PNA a market cap of $2.437 billion. Looking at the weekend top 150 chart again a company with that size market cap. would make it number 92 - that assumes that none of those that were above PNA (those 92 to 101) had any significant rises themselves today. It's all good.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Oct 11 2010, 12:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Henrietta,

"Should make for a mellow weekend"

Time to get the calculator out and work out how many CST shares you can buy on Monday??


MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Oct 11 2010, 09:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Off-the-mark,

In the Sydney Mornings Herald's week-end edition they had the 'Top 150 companies' listed. PNA with a market cap of $2.186billion (on its Friday close of 74c) was listed No. 102. Now, when I looked this morning, a few minutes ago, its at 77c. This would give a market cap. of $2.274 billion. If, in fact it had closed there on Friday, it would have been in the Top 150 list at No. 96.

So if it can maintain that price level it may make some Funds that are tied to top 50, top 100 companies etc. have to stock up on PNA.

Hoping so anyway.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Oct 1 2010, 08:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Bigmumma,

I thought it was you, that after the A.G.M. when it was being worked out if the glass (pitcher) was half full or half empty, that you stated you were selling down probably with a view to buying back in at a later time. I know that timing is everything, but if you followed through doing that you must have done quite O.K. Price for the immediate days after the A.G.M. $3.70 - $3.40, price over recent weeks $2.35 - $2.50.
Looks like it was a good strategy.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Oct 1 2010, 10:25 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Also this week:

Shaw Stockbroking issued its Quarterly 'Monitor' newsletter and Cellestis received a three line mention:

"Cellestis - Quantiferon Continues to Gain Traction. Cellestis (CST) reported sales growth for FY10 of 34% in local currency terms and reported profit up by 26% to $10.2M for the year, despite the negative impact of a stronger AUD for most of the year. CST's operations generated $6.8M of cash bringing the company's closing cash balance to $22.6M."

Now, I have used Shaw Stockbroking (plus Commsec) for the past five years or so and received their daily Email advices (Shaw Morning Comments and Shaw Morning Notes) and despite Shaw covering CST's previous company briefings this is the first mention, humble as it is, that I've seen Shaw make on CST.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Oct 1 2010, 09:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Full Criterion column:

"Blame either the Australian dollar or the analysts' procrustean approach to their spreadsheets, but the global purveyor of tuberculosis testing kits has been about as popular as the disease itself.
Cellestis shares have fallen 14 per cent since the company reported flat earnings of $8.25 million in the year to June 30, 2010, on a l7 per cent revenue surge to $40m. Cellestis's Quantiferon kits are a more accurate diagnostic than standard skin testing.
'It's a bit rough' protests CEO Ton Radford. 'Our US sales were up 49 per cent and we hope to be able to report 50 per cent growth this year'.
TB is alive and (un)well in countries such as China, South east Asia and India. Cellestis's market relates more to secondary diagnosis, such as for travellers visiting a TB-prone area. And until developing countries get serious about prevention, TB will never be elimated.
Radford says Cellestis is a growth stock, given its low market penetration: the company sells about two million of the 40 million to 45 million TB tests carried out globally each year, 18 million in the US. While it is working on improved versions of the same thing, it's not getting carried away on blue-sky development of other diagnostics. 'We don't go for the hero patent, we go for the patent which works for what we are doing' Radford says.
Unusually for a diagnostic, Cellestis pays a dividend: 5c for the full year. Despite the sharp retraction, shares look fully priced and we'll plump for a HOLD"


MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Aug 13 2010, 07:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Macduffy,
Thanks for the correction on Appendix 4C reporting.
But, gee, there wouldn't be too many companies that don't have some factor to be concerned about - exchange rates for importers/exporters, metal prices for miners, commodity prices, interest rates, overseas events affecting foreign markets and in turn our markets.
And speaking of nasty effects on S.P., I would think that there are many reasons for shareholders to sell - perhaps finalising a deceased estate, funding a superannuation pension, pressing personal needs etc etc. But unless there is some information flowing through about the company then there won't be much need for a shareholder to buy into a company. Sellers outnumbering buyers = reduced S.P., which I think is what's happening with CST at the moment while we await the 2010 figures.
What if the 2010 figures are a good results and the S.P. kicks up, can the shareholder who sold while in an information vacuum have any redress?

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Aug 13 2010, 03:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello BigT,

CST was obliged to lodge with the ASX a quarterly reporting statement of its Cash flows (Appendix 4C) until it started earning net profits. They then ceased those reporting statements from October, 2008. So until then I suspect they were advising the market of its position by way of those quarterly reports. I can recall at about that time they didn't give guidance , pointing out the uncertainties of the Global Financial Crisis, and the problems that it created. Now that it's a profitable company and having seen out the worst of the G.F.C. it would be nice if they could indicate what they expect for the year ahead - after all they must work on their own budgets, revising them where necessary. Yesterday, Telstra gave an indication what they thought might be their position for 2010/11, so why can't other companies. As circumstances change they can advise of this also - continuous disclosure to the shareholders and the market- nothing wrong with that.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Aug 13 2010, 01:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello BM

"How much notice do they have to give the market ??"

I think ASX listing rules say that announcements are required to be made as soon as management is aware that there is a material difference for the result for a period contrasted to the result for the previous corresponding period.

So a week, or thereabouts, from announcing the results they would be aware of what the figures are. Presumably at this stage that would be waiting for the auditors to sign off, writing a press release etc. etc.

By the way BM, haven't seen your submission to the tipping competition over at the other place.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Aug 8 2010, 05:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

In today's Sun Herald 'Investor' supplement, in an article headed "Hot stocks prescribed for a healthy portfolio" Lincoln Indicators submitted 10 stocks to be watching:

"Lincoln has picked 10 hot stocks to watch in the profit-reporting season, all considered to be in 'strong finanical health'".

Trouble is that CST doesn't ppear in the 10 listed stocks. I think it was about 12 months ago that FG attended a Lincoln Indicators seminar and was pleased to learn that CST at that time were on their short list. I trust Lincolns don't know something we don't know.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jul 27 2010, 09:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Anne and Ian

Re: Dividends In Line With Profits

"Anybody else have thoughts on this?"

The topic of future dividend payments was covered pretty well (or probably as far as it could go) with posts here on CST.
Go back to postings from 30th. January, 2010 to 1st February, 2010 for a fair discussions on the matter.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jul 14 2010, 08:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

In today's issue of Alan Kohler's Eureka Report Tim Treadgold has an article on copper. Some of his observations are:

"The copper price is stirring and stockpiles are dwindling. Investors should consider adding a copper producer to their portfolio."

"So what does it all mean for investors? First you have to understand stockpiles. Part of the story is explained by 20 continuous weeks of decline in copper stockpiles."

"Central to the copper story is the demand outlook and constrained supply, which is acting as a trigger for corporate activity well ahead of a sustained upward move in the copper price. In other words companies in the copper business are buying resources today in the expectation of a stronger market in future years with production expected to trail demand. From a stockpile estimated to represent 20 days of global demand the worldwide inventory of copper is forecast to fall to 14 days by 2014, by which time the price should be consistently sitting above $US4 a pound. That outlook is much better than 2008, when global industrial production collapsed, sending the copper price into a near vertical dive from just above $US4 to as low as $US1.40 a pound."

"Investors with higher risk appetites who are not satisfied with a holding in BHP Billiton or Rio Tinto, where diversified portfolios mask most movements in any single commodity, should consider adding a producer to the portfolio.
But not just any producer. The following three companies have good pedigrees and market caps well in excess of $1billion. Our pick of the mid-cap copper producers are:
PAN AUST (PNA) Following in the footsteps of the once wildly successful Oxiana Resources (which later merged to form OZ Minerals). Pan Aust is producing copper at the Phu Kham mine in Laos. Reserves, production and profits are rising. Gold is also likely to be added to copper output and profit tipped to hit $150 million for the 12 months to the end of 2010, rising again next year to $230 million. Last week PanAust added 4c to 52c but the big broking house UBS has upgraded its 12 month price target for the stock from 67c to 75c.
EQUINOX (EQN) ...................................................
OZ MINERALS ...................................................... "


That's a pretty heavy editing of the article and hopefully not putting things out of context, but I think it covers the pertinent points regarding PNA.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jul 6 2010, 09:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Starwoman,

Thanks for the update.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jul 6 2010, 09:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Starwoman,

Sorry to have been somewhat tardy in replying - I've had a few things on my plate the last week or so and other matters get put on the backburner. The extracts from the Sydney Morning Herald that I've posted here on ShareScene of late were all by the same columnist, Scott Rochfort in his "CBD" column. He finishes this column each day with 'Got a tip? Use our online tips box or email srochfort@smh.com.au. As he has given Compass a few coverages now you get the impression he has an interest in turning up whatever he can. I would think he would be appreciative of any other input you might be able to offer.

Also CrayHunter and Veeone pointed out here on ShareScene in posts on 6th May that there was an article in the Australian that day by Stuart Wilson, chief executive of the Australian Shareholders Association where he spoke of "some questionable transactions resulted in shareholder heartache and a long list of unanswered questions".

It's a shame that Pierpont is no longer writing for the Fin. Review - he used to give this type of story a good coverage.

And yes, being a Penrith (and surroundings) resident for just over 70 years I remember the Produce Store and knew of Vi and Frank. So all the best.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jul 5 2010, 12:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Love it Henrietta. Love it a lot. Don't know how you people do these clever things with graphics and computers and things. Maybe there's a generational issue here.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jul 5 2010, 08:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

That's brilliant Big T. Only thing is you have probably stifled other entries by setting the bar so high.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jul 4 2010, 09:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello JB,

I did do the cryptic in yesterday's Herald but I'm afraid you've got me tossed on your T shirt message. Might need a few days to think about it.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jul 4 2010, 03:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello again Big T.,

Been thinking about your most recent post and what a great message for a T shirt it would make. You could even wear it to the a.g.m. - we'd all be able to pick you out.
So maybe instead of a Financial Year turnover and net profit estimate competition we could have a T shirt slogan competition. Don't know who the judging panel would be though.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jul 2 2010, 04:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Big T,

"Don't mention the share price"

A comment on the Ashes tour last year between Shane Warne and Geoff Boycott was while they were talking about the closeness of the spectators to the players at a particular ground, it being smallish in size etc. etc.
Geoffrey recounted when he had reached a double century there on one occasion it was greeted with polite applause but then followed by a very audible " 'Ow much longer?". I thought at the time how suitable it was for we CST shareholders, continually stumbling along with expectations of forthcoming announcements or anticipated half-yearly figures.
But after the CDC release of last week and seeing items on Rog's blog and various mentions here from the dedicated CST posters it would appear that it may not be all that much longer. Hoping so, I getting too old for this waiting game.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jun 27 2010, 08:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Starwoman,

Well, I live in Mulgoa but that only happened from a few years back, after the Geographical Names Board decided so. I was happily living in Regentville until then. My place of abode hasn't changed - only the suburb name. And yes, I know Littlefields Road well. Each time I might venture south to join the Hume Highway it will be via Littlefields Road and the Northern Road.

But keep up the good effort in endeavouring to highlight the activities that have gone on in recent years in Compass. Any updates of your successes or otherwise via a ShareScene post would, I'm sure, be most welcomed. As for me I am a very small holder. That investment was originally done as a suggestion of a broker. I'm convinced we shareholders know as much as they do most of the time.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jun 26 2010, 09:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

I read the week-end Australian, Sydney Morning Herald and the Financial Review today and couldn't see any coverage or follow up to yesterday's press release. Which is a shame. The good news and the excellent work that the company has achieved is deserving of being much better known.
A thought has now crossed my mind and it is this: At the annual general meeting I asked a question from the floor as to whether the financial press had been invited to the a.g.m. The answer from Chairman Ron was that as it was a shareholders meeting therefore only shareholders would be in attendance. Now that we have the company making a significant announcement, are the press interested ?
Well, perhaps not. If the company hadn't been interested enough to have them as visitors to report on the annual meeting can the press in turn show interest in the company when the company has something to say.
Just a passing thought. It's frustrating and a pity that coverage isn't given and available to a wider audience - the general public.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jun 24 2010, 09:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Following yesterday's ASX announcement the Sydney Morning Herald has this to say today:

"The administrator of the explorer and oxide plant owner Compass Resources has belatedly confirmed that a majority of shareholders voted against a proposed deed of company arrangement last Thursday.
The proposal would have given the Compass chairman, Gordon Toll, and a US hedge fund, YA Global, a 95 per cent stake in the company once worth $770 million in return for cancelling debts of $70 million. The shares granted to YA were also meant to take care of another debt owed to Hunan Non-Ferrous Metals. But the administrator announced yesterday that YA had 'commenced arbitration proceedings' with the Chinese firm over the debt.
Shareholders at the meeting voted in favour of a new proposal to be put to them within 60 days."

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jun 17 2010, 01:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Sydney Morning Herald 17 - 6 - 2010:

"The chairman of Compass Resources, Gordon Toll, could soon have some difficulty hearing any protesting shareholders outside his six-story Queen Anne-styled terrace in the upmarket Mayfair district of London.
Toll recently applied to the City of Westminster to install double-glazed windows at the front and rear of the red-brick property. The former Fortescue Metals chairman, however, has scaled back his original plan to install a 2.8 metre high 'glass box' over the roof of the terrace.
Today, the administrator Ferrier Hodgson will host a meeting where resolutions will be presented to Compass shareholders for Toll and the US hedge fund YA Global to be handed a 95 per cent stake in the explorer. This is in return for them cancelling $70-odd million of debt.
Under the deed of company arrangement, Toll and YA Global will be issued shares at 2.5c each. On the day that the company was tipped into voluntary administration last year, shareholders were about to vote on whether to grant Toll and YA shares at 42c each in order to erase the debt.
At least 100 unhappy Compass shareholders have signalled they will oppose the plan.
"According to a report by the ASX, many companies raised money from shareholders during the global financial crisis' said a recent letter from a group of investors calling themselves the Friends of Compass.
"While other companies were raising funds often to retire debt, Compass was rackingl it up. Being out of lockstep with the hundreds of other ASX-listed companies that raised funds from shareholders has left YA Global and the chairman in an ideal position to benefit from the failure of your company' ".

I would expect that having taken so much interest recently in Compass that the S.M.H. will have a reporter at the meeting.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jun 16 2010, 11:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

A small CST mention in the July issue of 'Smart Investor' magazine (just out).

In an article on 'small cap. bargains - 25 companies that have the potential to go far' they say about Cellestis:

"This biotechnology firm poduces new blood-test technology for treatment of tuberculosis. its QuantiFERON products are in use worldwide. It turned its first profit in 2008 and recorded strong profit growth in the first half of this financial year."

The article also says that the list of companies was compiled "with the help of independent research house Lincoln Indicators". So it wouldl appear that CST is still on their radar.

Not sure how they came to the observation that CST recorded strong profit growth in the first half of this financial year. I saw the six months December, '09 net profit of $3.2 million as pretty close to the December '08 profit of $2.8 million, and once foreign exchange differences were calculated the December '09 figures were down from December, '08. And if you look at half year December '09 compared to half year June, '09 there was a fall in profit - from $5.4 million to $3.2million.

No guidance from management for the current six months. They must have a pretty good idea by now (3 monthly P. & L. to March, sales figures for April and May plus June forward orders, all would be known to them now). So in the absence of guidance from management, can we expect the June, '10 half to be within a range of the June, '09 result. I think management are required to notify the market if there is to be a variance.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jun 15 2010, 03:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

And another contribution from the Sydney Morning Herald. From today's issue:

"Compass Resources shareholders will vote today wheher to grant their chairman, Gordon Toll and a US investment fund a 95 per cent stake in the explorer, in return for wiping out about $70 million of debt.
Under the deed of company arrangement being proposed at today's meeting, Toll will be granted 422,101,919 shares - a 15 percent stake - priced at 2.5c each.
YA Global, which had some convertible notes in the company which spent about $250 milion building an oxide plant, will get an 80 per cent stake.
This is dramatically different to the proposal Compass shareholders were about to vote on the day Compass was tipped into voluntary administration in January last year. Then, Toll's private company was set to get 90.5 million shares priced at 42c each to extinguish the $US25 million he was owed by Compass and YA Gloal was to get a 35 per cent stake.
But it seems some shareholders in the company once valued at $770 million are still refusing to budge. Some have raised concerns about another of YA Global's deals across the Pacific.
Comparisons have already been drawn with YA Global's failed attemps to push into liquidation the US biotech Cobalis, in which it had some converible notes. Cobalis recently won its bid in a US bankruptcy court over YA Global's proposal that it claimed would 'wipe out the common stock of Cobalis and its shareholders, pay creditors 4c to 1.5c on the dollar, and allow 90 per cent of revenues from the worldwide distribution of (the drug) PreHistin to be accrued to a Canadian business entity alleged to have been recently purchased by YAGI and managed by a current YAGI principal'.
Now YA Global's involvement in another deal has been highlighted. A shareholder in the US technology firm NewMedia recently launched legal action against YA Global for allegedly engaging in a 'manipulative scheme' over an original $10million convertible note facility provided in 2002. It is claimed YA Global failed to make proper disclosures and that it engaged in 'short-swing trading' of the stock before converting its debt into shares.
'YA Global has fared quite well from its investment in NeoMedia, having purchased over $50million in NeoMedia securities and made untold million in profits,' said the investor William Klawoon, in a filing to a New Jersey court last month."


So with the Herald's coverage over the past week I would expect we might see a paragraph or two tomorrow on the results of today's meeting.


MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jun 11 2010, 01:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

David17

"Where's ASIC when you need them?"

Yes, I remember when I used to look forward to reading Pierpont's weekly column in the Financial Review (he penned his final contribution a few years ago now) and every weeek he would be pointing out the dubious transactions that he had observed by those involved in sharemarket matters. And every week I wondered the same as you 'Where is ASIC?'
Nothing has changed it seems.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jun 11 2010, 09:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

The Sydney Morning Herald again. This from today's issue:

"Former Fortescue Metals chairman Gordon Toll does not appear to have convinced all Compass Resources shareholders of the merits of a proposal to hand him and a US hedge fund a 95 per cent stake in the company that was once worth $770million.
Next Tuesday's vote on the proposed deed of company arrangement will dilute the current sharebase 20 times, all in an effort to extinguish a $73 million debt. The debt was the result of cost blowouts associated with building a $250 million copper-cobalt-nickel mine and processing plant (it was originally meant to cost $70million).
It remains unclear if the Compass chairman and the US-based YA (Yorkshire Advisors) Global will front shareholders to answer some lingering questions at the meeting being hosted by the administrators, Ferrier Hodgson.
Global held convertible notes in Compass, while Toll as chairman provided a loan just months before the company was placed into voluntary administration in early 2009.
One question put by a group of disgruntled shareholders related to Toll being appointed in September 2006 to a Cayman Islands hedge fund which in the past described itself as a'a global oopportunistic natural resources fund seking multiple returns by focusing on deeply discounted private, pre-IPO natural resource companies'.
Toll was a lot more upbeat about Compass Resources when he sold $5.9 million worth of shares (worth up to $4.23 each) in October 2006 to help fund the purchase of a property by his private investment company. At the time Toll explained: 'The value of the extraordinary assets of our company have not been diminished by my personal need to raise cash'.
He added: 'I am convinced that the investor who bought my shares will not be disappointed'.
At the time Compass had $75 million in the bank. This was before it was forced to borrow money to cover the massively increasing cost of building the Browns Oxide Plant, south of Darwin.
A lot can change over the space of a year or two.
Toll did not appear so excited about building a portfolio of Compass shares in early 2009. At a meeting in January of that year, Compass shareholders were to vote on a resolution to grant Toll's private company 90.5 million shares priced at 42c each to extinguish the $US25million he was owed by Compass. They were also asked to vote on the resolution to grant YA Global a 35 per cent stake in return for cancelling its debt.
But when shareholders turned up to thel meeting they were informed Compass had been put into voluntary administration that day.
Under the deed of company arrangement now being proposed to shareholders, Toll will be granted 422,101,919 shares or a 15 per cent stake priced a 2.5c each. YA Global will get an 80 per cent stake."


MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jun 9 2010, 10:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

From this morning's Criterion column in The Australian newspaper:

"It's not politically correct to be talking about the oil potential of the Gulf of Mexico, but in a week or so Petsec will report the results of its first exploration drilling two years in the hydrocarbon-rich expanse.
Petsec, which has been a Gulf producer since the early 1990's, has felt its own collateral damage since BP's Deepwater Horizon whoopsie. Petsec chief financial officer Paul Gahdmar says investors feared Petsec would be affected by the Obama administration's six-months ban on deepwater Gulf drilling, but after two announcements they're clear the answer is no. "I think we have clearly communicated to the market as quickly as we could land put everyone at ease" he says.
Petsec has acquired an interest in 16 Gulf prospects to augment production from eight offshore and three onshore leases.
In China, meanwhile, management is awaiting approval for its Beibu Gulf development. According to Martin Place Securities, Petsec's US output dwindled to 7 billion cubic feet equivalent (gas and condensate) from a peak of 12.1bcfe in 2008. But the company hasn't been looking - until now. Petsec's long-term Gulf track record - a success rate of 73 out of 93 holes - bodes well.
While other brokers have given up on Petsec, Martin Place ascribes a base case net valuation of 45c for the Gulf assets and 72c for the Beibu Gulf. Oil price willing, the firm plumps for a 12-month target price of $1 a share.
Criterion is wary of lofty price targets but accepts that Petsec shares have been sadly ignored. The share malaise should be rectified with the Beibu go-ahead and more Gulf oil - but preferably not the slime coating seagulls and albatrosses.
Speculative buy."


MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jun 8 2010, 03:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

From today's Sydney Morning Herald:

"COMPASS EN ROUTE TO NEXT DIRECTION
The former Fortescue Metals chairman Gordon Toll may feel slightly conflicted next week when shareholders of Compass Resources vote on a proposed recapitalisation of the miner.
It is never easy being a major creditor and chairman of a former sharemarket darling that has been placed into voluntary administration.
It is even harder when you ask shareholders of a company once worth $770 million to vote on a deed of company arrangement under which their stake will be diluted to 5 per cent, in return for cancelling out $73 million of debts.
Compass shareholders may have reason to be rather unhappy about the proposal, given the company had spent well over $250 million building an oxide plant south of Darwin as part of its plans to become a big polymetallic mining company.
Under the proposal, Toll's private investment company Coffee House Group, which lent $US24 million ($29 million) to Compass months before it was placed into voluntary administration, will be granted 422 million shares or a 15 per cent stake.
A hedge fund run by the New Jersey investment firm Yorkville Advisors, YA Global, will take a 80 per cent stake under the proposal, under which it will have a $36 million loan to the company cancelled and will provide a further $19million of funding.
The shares will be issued at 2.5c a pop, a tad off their $6.25 high in February, 2007.
Some Compass shareholders are still seeking answers on why the company was so quickly tipped into administration just days after telling the market it still had $9 million of cash in the bank.j And why it borrowed money from ts chairman instead of raising money from its shareholders."


MM

  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Apr 8 2010, 03:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Big M.

I thought it may have been you, buying back in after lightening your holding following the a.g.m. You must be way in front following that move.

MM

  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Mar 30 2010, 11:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

The 'Criterion' column in this mornings Australian gives PNA a mention and a "long-term buy" recommendation.

www.theaustralian.com.au/business

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Mar 18 2010, 10:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Henrietta and Doc gt,

Thanks for the clarification. Yes, I do go in on Comsec to pick up on ASX announcements and as you say Doc gt they have missed the 23rd February link. And when I went in on the CST web site under 'Latest News' and under 'Investor Centre - Latest News' ...nothing. I didn't link to 'Investor Centre - ASX Announcements', thinking I had that source covered.

Still maintaining my grumble that CST happenings and information are derived by reading postings here and from blogs and not from the company itself. Think I might just have to learn to accept that it will probably be ever thus.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Mar 17 2010, 08:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Quote: "The only time you'll get any news out of the company is when there is some".

Well, we received the Half Yearly Report and Accounts on an ASX announcement on 15th. February. But then no mention by the company (either by ASX announcement or on the company's own web-site) of the Half Yearly Presentation Notes presented on 23rd. February. We have to rely on the good favour of blogs from past and present posters on this site to get this information.
Lodge Partners Research Report (mid-February) was also an interesting read. Again found out from tapping these same blogs.
I've long had the view that the company isn't going to inform (us shareholders, financial press) unless it has to.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Mar 15 2010, 02:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

James,

The newsletter 'The Bull' has an article this week on 14 junior miners they say with "Blue Sky".

www.thebull.com.au/articles_detail.php?id=10103

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Mar 12 2010, 09:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

And see theadder's post of 26th. September, 2008, which would have been the first any of us on this thread knew of this.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Feb 8 2010, 11:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Question for the day. Who, when referring to we group of people who are interested in CST said:

"The importance of you and your cohesion surpasses the importance of the venue in which you 'meet' ". ?


So keep posting people.

MM

And the answer is : FG
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jan 30 2010, 01:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Forrest and Kelpie,

"In line with profit"

I also pondered about this and last month sent an e-mail to Brian Manuel. Thus:

"I attended the company's a.g.m. and have been meaning to get clarity on a matter that was raised at that meeting.
This was during Tony Radford's presentation when he covered the topic of dividend payments and he stated: 'the company intends to provided dividends in line with profit growth'.
I am still wondering, does this mean (and for easy maths let's say a profit of $8m. in year one is followed by a profit of $16m. in year two):
# There is a doubling of profit, therefore there is a doubling in the amount of dividend payment? OR
# There is an increase of $8m. of profit, therefore there is a further $8. available for dividend payment. (and also bearing in mind that the company already has its $20m. in Bank and Deposit funds that it says it wishes to maintain as its reserve funds) ?
Your advice/clarification would be appreciated."


Brian replied:

"Thank you for your email and for your attendance at the A.G.M.
Your queries are best answered by stating that we do not intend to be too prescriptive with a dividend policy, however shareholders should expect that as the company's profit grows dividend will increase.
So while maintaining a general policy of dividend growth in line with profit growth, naturally the Board will need to assess future dividend declarations based on the facts at the time, factoring in any investment opportunities and including the company's intention on maintaining a healthy reserve of funds.
Trusting the above helps clarify".


Brian was prompt and courteous enough in replying, but it didn't clarify a lot for me. But I doubt that if the profit goes up by $8m. that the dividend is going to rise by the same $8m.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jan 29 2010, 09:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

And what about babs.....the carry-over champ....resting on her laurels?

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jan 14 2010, 09:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Bing,

I notice on Lincoln Indicators' website that they have three free seminars listed for next week (North Sydney 18th. Jan., Melbourne 20th. Jan., Brisbane 21st. Jan.). So, presumably their top 10 will feature in these talks, hopefully providing some further interest in CST.

Regards,

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jan 8 2010, 07:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Griggy,

Franking credits get accumulated by a company paying Australian company tax. If Cellestis is on the system of paying PAYG (Pay As You Go) company tax in this current financial year then it would have added to its franking credits balance. But to what extent.....who knows?

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Dec 16 2009, 07:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Should any ShareScene posters still be following WCB, Alan Kohler's Eureka Report today picks up RBS Australia's coverage of WCB. RBS rates WCB as a Buy:

"Target $3.43 (was $3.08). Stronger dairy prices and milk volumes have combined to see the broker lift its earnings estimates, which in turn means an increase in price target.

A takeover proposal was reached a month ago and this suggests corporate activity is likely, which together with the improved earnings outlook sees the broker retain its Buy rating.

Target price is $3.43. Current price is $2.56. Difference $0.87. If WCB meets the RBS Australia target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

RBS Australia forecasts a full FY10 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.78%,

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.00.


MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Dec 11 2009, 07:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Panners,

From this mornings Criterion column in the 'Australian':


"Coming into the home straight of 2009, it's a fine line call as to whether copper or lead will take out the accolade as the year's best base metals performer. Both have recovered about 60 per cent, but when it comes to inherent usefulness, we'll settle for the red metal.
According to metal watcher Peter Wright of Brisbane firm Burrell, the "catastrophic interuption" of the credit markets means there won't be any significant new copper supply over the next five years. Projects such as the Olympic Dam expansion have been delayed, while progress on Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia (Rio Tinto and Ivanhoe) have been slow.
Wright describes the copper market as "delicately balanced". Currently there's a modest surplus of 400,000 tonnes (eight days' supply), with annual demand of 20mt forecast to rise by 5mt over the next seven years.
Meanwhile, Patersons has lifted its 27-month copper forecast by 7 per cent to $US3.03 a pound, with an assumed long-term average of $US2/lb.
Wright is keen on PanAust, which plans to double its copper (and equivalent) output by 2013 by extending its flagship Phu Kham mine in Laos and commissioning its Ban Houayxai (gold/silver) and Puthep (copper) project in northern Thailand. PanAust has forecast 53,000 tonnes from Phu Kham this year - its first full year of production - compared with the original target of 65,000t. Wright forecasts current-year earnings of $16.9 million, rising to a serious $126m. in calendar 2010.
We last had PanAust as a speculative buy at 39.5c in late May, after Guangdong Rising Assets Management paid $215m for a 19.9 per cent stake.
PanAust is now capitalised at $1.6billion, but there looks to be more steam if prices behave."


MM.






  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Dec 9 2009, 12:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Moscowman,

Do you still have WCB on your watchlist?

Are you still in Moscow, with the artic winter upon you and a little out of the loop of company matters in Aust.?

Well things have heated up at WCB this week. A speeding ticket from the ASX, a response from WCB, the share price reaching $3.00 from $2.00 at the start of the week.

There's a fair coverage in today's press (Fin. Rev., Australian, Sydney Morning Herald) covering the to-ings and fro-ings. If you haven't caught up with the issues let's know and I'll try and summarise the reporting and opinions of the press.

Mulgoaman
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Nov 21 2009, 03:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Pitcher this....is the jug half full or is the jug half empty?

My apologies also.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Nov 21 2009, 12:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

"You'd have to be happy with CST's performance business-wise, comparatively through the GFC surely?"

Short answer is, yes, no problems. This is the preamble to the question I asked at the AGM :
"I'm a shareholder of many years standing and I applaud management for having brought into existance its product, taken it through the rigous of trials and approvals, had it commercially accepted, marketed and to be a profitable company. But I do have a concern" etc. etc. and question.

To say that the company performed well through the GFC and therefore don't concern youself with other issues can, I think, be likened to a child with a school report card withy top marks in English and a 'can improve' in Maths and to say "Don't worry with those top marks you'll still be OK". It seems to me you should concentrate on areas that might need some attention and in CST case some profit guidance and shareholder relationships could improve a notch or two.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Nov 20 2009, 03:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

"Who needs guidance or forward estimates"

Well, if you want to make a calculation as to where you feel the share price should be, guidance and estimates can be very helpful as share values are based on future earnings. A decision as to whether to sell now with the idea of buying back in, a decision to hold, a decision to buy further stock need to be made based on what you may think a fair value of the share should be.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Nov 20 2009, 03:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Rog,

Giving the turnover for the previous 4 months:

"Growth in first 4 months of FY 20l0 in US, EMEA and ROW - on an average monthly basis, 37% growth over same period last year"

-doesn't count as forward projections unless they give additional advices as to whether this 37% is going to be sustained, increased, increased significantly etc.

I'm wondering if the lack of Broker coverage of CST is because management are so reluctant to give guidance.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Nov 19 2009, 09:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Frank,

Yes, that's a pretty fair workload for a 70 year old. Chairman of two publicly listed companies, plus being a director of a further two other public companies. As the bio. says, he established and ran the second-tier Accountancy firm Pitcher Partners, so I would imagine during that time his decisions and his word were law. And following those experiences he now wouldn't take too kindly to being questioned by lesser mortals at a shareholder gathering.

At age 70, it obviously means he carries this load over to his 71st. birthday. And lthat's an area I can speak of with a bit of experience, having turned that milestone myself 6 months ago. I'm still doing some work myself - but it would be close to half of what it was at age 65. And that's a big plus I reckon. My doctor tells me I'm in fairly good shape for my age, but even so there are a few niggles and the get up and go isn't exactly what you would like it to be. Ron might be starting to push himself a bit and the irritability starts to show.

Ron obviously wouldn't need the dollars, so why bother to continue. I guess he must feel that there is a role to play and he is best suited to do so.

It certainly has led to a bit of discussion here with posters the past couple of days - plus a few curt responses this afternoon thrown in as well.

As Big Mumma says - it looks like it's back to to the waiting game again and seeing what the half yearly will give us.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Nov 18 2009, 10:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Big Mumma,

Yes, you've picked it in one. The question I asked was succinctly put by Malta in his coverage of the meeting. A bit of a preamble I had before asking it was to say that I relied on an internet chat site and a dedicated blog for information relative to Cellestis and that I didn't think that this is how a shareholder should be keeping in touch with movements of a company in which they hold shares.

Malta's answer to the question by the chairman is virtually it word for word. No ifs, buts, maybes from Mr. Pitcher - if the financial press don't own shares in the company then they are not invited to the AGM.

But following on, when the meeting concluded, and I put some note papers and Annual Report into my folder and stood up ready to move out, Jim Rothel had moved to be near me and apologised for the question having been treated dismissively, but before he could elaborate, Ron Pitcher also joined us. Ron expanded a bit further by saying that the company has is the past issued press releases, through their representative, but they had found that what eventually went into print wasn't necessarily what the companmy had wished (in emphasis or in content I assume), Hence the company wasn't keen on press releases unless they had some "control" of what it was that was published.

Ron then went off to elsewhere and by this time others (4 I think) had joined and Jim Rotherl was very generous with his time to discuss matters that were raised to him.

I left wondering that if a fairly straightforward enquiry from a shareholder could bring about a pesky response from the chairman, how does he handle other issues of greater importance when criticisms are made or things don't proceed as that are intented to. I'm afraid I don't know.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Nov 17 2009, 07:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello Dr. Daz.,

Well, yes, historically the 2nd. half of the financial year has been 60% of the year's total turnover, but so has each successive half year's turnover been greater than the previous half year. So if this half comes in near $20m. it will be first time that an increase has not occured.

But lets look at a what if - and probably a best case scenario - which may mean Puzzled's observation of a Japanese uptake coming into the picture. Hypothetically, say Dec. '09 half year turnover of $20m., June, 2009 half year turnover of $30m. (total turnover $50m. - a 40%/60% split). A turnover of $50m. would be an increase on the 2007-08 year of $34.46m. of 45%. The previous two financial year-on-year increases have been 76.7% ('07 to '08) abd 83% ('08 to '09).

Maybe we may have to temper our expectations of future growth a little. Or at least wait and see what the Dec. '09 half year outcome really is.

And Malta - that's an incredible amount of information to have absorbed at an hour and a half meeting. Were you sitting there with a tape recorder on your lap? You did get my question (and the very terse answer to it) spot on.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Nov 17 2009, 01:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

I attended the AGM yesterday. I would think that there were about 120 - 130 in attendance and maybe 30 of these were Cellestis staff and overseas executives (team members and team leaders these days I suppose).

No complimentary company biros this year, I did look but to no avail, so last years issue will have to do after an appropriate refill.

The Chairman said that he would run the formal meeting, take questions (one question per shareholder) and close at 3-30pm. And at 3-30 pm he did. I counted ten questions from the floor - some short and sharp, others a little lengthier. But I'm wondering about the roll and responsibilities of a company chairman. You have people who have taken the interest and made the effort (many from interstate) and if you have a question to raise or thought of a follow-up to something which was previous said then you are denied your opportunity. Obviously a meeting can't meander on, it has to have a deadline, but I think ten questions that were eagerly asked was not a lot and particularly when you read Cellestis' Corporate Governance Statement - Rights of Shareholders that:
"the AGM provides an opportunity for the Board to communicate with investors and enourage their participation through presentations on the company's business and current trading. Shareholders are encouraged to attend the AGM and to use the opportunity to ask questions".
I think that after the words "opportunity to ask questions" insert 'but only if you're quick'.

Paul100 in his post yesterday says that giving a 37% (a bit less with the flat Japanese turnover) increase in turnover against the corresponding period isn't as great as it first sounds. Let's assume, for easier maths, that it was in fact 37% overall, and for a six months period. Then on the December, 2008 half year turnover of $14.465m. you have a projected $19.817m. This is then nearly identical to the Jan-June, 2009 turnover of $19.996m. So should the figures thus far for 2009/10 have be contrasted against figures of twelve months ago, as they were, but not have regard to the Jan-June, 2009 results. I'm a bit doubtful.

Tony Radford's slide presentation stated "the company intends to provide dividends in line with profit growth". There seemed a clear conviction with Tony when he read through this part of the slide.

MM

  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Oct 27 2009, 08:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

"will be granted patent status today"


followed by a company press release ???
followed by an ASX announcement ???

we'll have to wait and see.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Oct 25 2009, 09:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Re the hedging debate:

Alan Kohler on his Inside Business programme this morning had a good coverage on the subjuect. If you missed it you can get it at www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness. I don't know how long in between the programme and loading up the website takes though.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Oct 18 2009, 06:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

In today's Sun-Herald 'Investor' supplement, chartist Regina Meani had this to say about Petsec.

"Reversal in place - Petsec explores for gas in the US and oil in China; its share price is in the final stages of a head and shoulders reversal pattern, which requires a rise through 37 cents to confirm completion. When this occurs, the stock would gain the potential to rise towards 50 cents and then 65 cents and possibly towards $1.00. The risk would be failure to complete with a warning signal at 28 cents and a breadkown at 22 cents."

Not up with the t.a. approach to things - it seems a bit like Regina is having a bit each way.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Oct 14 2009, 07:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Frank,

You say...."and with a PE close to 40"

You would be working out you PE based on the net profit of $8.23m of 2008/09 ($8.23m x 40 divided by the 96m shares = $3.43).
But valuations aren't so much based on historical as current year projections, particularly as we are now three and a half months into 2009/10.

Trouble is, forecasts or guidance isn't a long-suit of the Cellestis board. However, at the AGM last year (mid November) we did get an indication as to what the December six monthly figure could come in at so possibly this could be repeated at this years AGM.

If so, refer to Forrest's Profit and Loss six monthly data spread sheet and incorporate the additional information for the estimated December, 2009 figures. Extrapolate the sales and expenses based on the previous 3 or 4 six monthly figures for an estimate of the June, 2010 half year. Calculate your estimate earnings after tax for the 2009/10 year and use a PE of 30 and you might get a might get a figure reasonably higher than the current $3.50.

As I say the limitation is that you have to do your own calculations and guesstimates as I can't see guidance being given by the Board, even though I think there is an obligation for them to do so if a company's results are going to be greater in a current period than they were in the previous corresponding period.

Only a month to go to the AGM and we all should be able to sharpen our pencils and put on our thinking caps (again).

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Sep 25 2009, 04:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

And is it the 3.45 or the 3.37 that is taken into the chart compilers data as the closing figure for the day? And then, no doubt, for the t.a. people to comtemplate when looking for a future trend.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Sep 25 2009, 01:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Sam,

Vicki's pay in 2007/08 of $203,115 was the amount she received from her commencement with the company. The note in the 2008 Annual Report says she took up duties on 4th February, 2008 and "therefore the remuneration disclosed here is only from this date until 30th June, 2008. Her total annual base remuneration is $450,000".
Although I can't see why she would have been entitled to LSL (per the 2009 Annual Report), even if it's only $432.

MM

  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Sep 10 2009, 01:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Hello frankj

What additional news at the AGM?


Well, come mid-November management would have four months trading of this current year available. Perhaps we might get some profit guidance for 09/10 (in dollar terms that is). We can only hope.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Sep 6 2009, 08:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

From today's Sun Herald (NSW) Investor supplement:
"PanAust has glittering prospects
"Analysts are upbeat on this mining and exploration company.
"This copper and gold mining and exploration company was established in its current form more than a decade ago but started looking to South East Asia towards the end of the 1990's. It acquired controlling intersts in a project in Thailand in 1999 and its cornerstone project in Laos in 2001.
"It is Brisbane headquartered but all its operations are offshore.
"Although it reported a loss for the past halfyear, most analysts researching the stock are optimistic, with seven out of 12 rating it as a buy.
"Its cornerstone Phu Kham Copper-Gold operation in Laos was brought on stream in April last year and started commercial production of coper-gold oxide in June, 2008.
"It has just completed its first 12 months of operation and had no lost time injuries (LTI) - a total of 6.5 million hours with no injury that would have prevented any employee working.
"That's rather remarkable considering the Australian open-cut metalliferous mining industry performance of 1.8 LTIs per million man hours during 2007-08.
"And although it reported an interim net profit after tax (NPAT) loss of $US15.8million for the first half ended June, that included $US19.1million in one-off costs associated with a share-option expense and a redemption fee for the repayment of a debt facility with Goldman Sach JBWere.
"The company is also about to receive a $216 million investment from Chinese Guangdong Rising Assets Management after the Chinese Govt. approved its investment in the company. That, along with an equity raising earlier this year, has helped knock its gearing level to less than 20 per cent, not a bad thing in the current environment.
"And if the copper price continues to rise, admittedly off a rather low base, its outlook may be even rosier.
"UBS is so optimistic it has made it its preferred Australian copper stock.
"UBS write in a report 'this is due to its solid operating performance and options for expansions at Phu Kham and the potential development of the Ban Houayxai gold-silver project'
"The Ban Houayxai project is in the south-west of the Phu Bia Contract Area in Laos and had a pre-feasability study completed on it in September last year, which revealed the potential to produce 100,000oz to 130,000 oz of gold and 700,000 to 800,000oz a year of silver over a minimum period of six years.
"Although currently trading at about 40cents, UBS has a price target of 59 cents on the stoock. RBS has a price target of 47 cents but Citigroup's is 42cents, due to a more conservative commodity price outlook.
"Advantages:
Improving copper price
New project potential
Major Chinese investor
Disadvantages:
Volatility of commodity prices
Exchange rate
Country risk
Verdict
Although commodity prices are volatile and PanAust has just one major project online, it has identified other opportunities that
could eventually turn it into a much bigger player."


MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Sep 2 2009, 08:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Another mention of WCB. The Eureka Report (1.9.09) in covering broker recommendations mentions RBS Australia's coverage of WCB.
They say:
"Target $3.08 (was $2.50). The year just gone was a tough one for the company, but the broker expects FY10 will be significantly better, especially given signs of improvement in pricing.
While milk supply should be more competitive and the the broker has trimmed its forecasts to reflect this, it retains its Buy rating on the stock on valuation grounds.
Target price is $3.08 (current price $1.99) If WCB meets the RSB Australia target it will return approximately 55% (excl. dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
RBS Australia forecasts a full year FY10 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 15 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.27."

MM

  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Sep 1 2009, 06:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

MM, Are you still taking a look at WCB ?

This from today's Fin.Review:

"A joint venture cheese company that was to have been set up by Warrnambool Cheese and Butter (WCB) and dairy giant National Foods has been officially scrapped eight months after it was announced with great hoopla.
WCB has instead been forced to revert to a simple agreement in which it will supply National Foods, owned by Japan's Kirin Holdings, with bulk cheese.
The terms of the arrangement are still being thrased out.
WCB has fallen on hard times in the past few months through a collapse in international dairy commodity prices and an exodus of farmer suppliers after it cut the price of milk it was buying from them.
This in turn resulted in WCB pulling out of a proposed $50 million capital raising in April that was to have partly funded a 50 per cent stake in the joint venture, to have been called Australian Cheese Company.
In late December 2008, WCB signed an agreement with National Foods to set up the Australian Cheese Company to make cheese brands including Coon, Cracker Barrel and Mil Lel.
The brands came into the National Foods stable after the $910 million acquisition of the NSW co-op Dairy Farmers business late in calendar 2008.
WCB chairman Frank Davis said yesterday the terms of the supply agreement were still being negotiated, but the Australian Cheese Company venture would now not be proceeding in any form. WCB had been examining other proposals such as taking a smaller stake in the venture.
He was speaking after WCB announced a disastrous $19.9 million loss for financial year 2009, compared with a net profit after tax to $24.5 million a year earlier. Mr. Davis said the problems with farmers leaving the company had largely been fixed, with almost all of the lost volume having been retrieved as some disgruntled suppliers returned to the fold, and others joined the group.
'By and large we've got back almost everything we lost,' Mr. Davis said. 'The upshot is our milk intake is back up to about where it was. We've overfilled our factory.'
WCB scrapped a final dividend because of the plunge into the red. Revenue tumbled by 16 per cent to $441 million. The company blamed the global financial crisis and subsequent downturn for the big falls in international commodity prices.
WCB lured John McLean out of retirement in April this year to lead the company again in the wake of the resignation of former managing director Neil Kearney, who quit after the heavy downturn in profits. Mr. McLean had retired in 2007 after 32 years at the top.
Mr. Davis was cautious about the outlook for financial year 2010, although he was comforted by early signs of a recovery in global prices.
'Prices are showing signs of recovery' he said. 'Whether that will be sustained or not is hard to say' Mr. Davis said.
WCB's share price has been belted over the past year, having been at $5.10 on September 1, 2008, and since dropping to around $2."


MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Aug 28 2009, 02:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

As Krumbs said in an earlier post, "a lot of catching up to do". The turnover, the bottom line, the dividend, all to be read-up and absorbed, but judging by the entries in Forrest's competition these results didn't catch too many ShareSceners by surprise.

A number of posters have expressed their support for the way management have chosen to conservatively steer the course for the company to where we are now, and I have to endorse those sentiments. But at the risk of sounding a stick in the mud and being unappreciative I still wonder about our company's role in regard to the ASX continuous disclosure requirements. These say that guidance must be given when a company becomes aware that there is expected to be a material difference in the financial results for the period from the results that were recorded in the previous corresponding period, or from forecasts for that period that have been provided to the market.

Well, what forecasts were provided? At the presentation in March we were given charts to show that there had been 92% growth December, 2007 half year to December, 2008 half year (broken down into sales regions) and that "sales growth and profit growth remain strong". This was tempered at the same time with a cautionary note "our strong expected growth may be moderated by the G.F.C. issues" and that "economic climate remains a wild card effect".

No doubt when the good results are revealed at year end we could have expected this, having been informed of the strong profit growth. But if the year end results had fallen away from that which was expected then we should have known that from having been told about the G.F.C. issues and the economic climate. And if there is a variation of 15% (considered the material difference) the market should be informed. Is the $8.2 million net profit 15% more than "profit growth remaining strong" ?

The company stated (p46 2008 Annual Report) under "Corporate Governance - Timely and Balance Disclosure" - "The company's commitment to communicating with the shareholders is embodied in its Continuous Disclosure Policy, which contains policies and procedures designed to ensure accountability at the senior management level for compliance with disclosure obligation".

Well I don't think an AGM plus a half yearly and year-end presentation to a selected audience is communicating with the shareholders much at all.

Rog on his blog and as relayed by Enniscorthy in his posting here of ShareScene said "these presentations are more a means of communicating with shareholders rather than brokerls" and "it's a big thank you from me (and I am sure from many others) to Tony Radford and Jim Rothel for taking the time and going to the trouble of keeping me so well informed".

But from where I am, it is Rog and his blog and the learned posters on this site that has kept me informed of the world in which Cellestis operates in between half-yearly and annual advices from the company. So my big thank you goes to Rog and fellow posters for keeping me abreast of these happenings.

Many shareholders will have a reasonable stake of their total shareholdings tied up in Cellestis and information on the company is vital in making decisions as to hold, acquire, sell etc. I know Forrest and some others are holding forever, but those in D.I.Y. Super Funds in pension phase, those with some other monetary considerations have to weigh up selling off some Cellestis shareholding against selling one or other holdings they may have.

Now with the release of the annual figures the Directors have told us "our aim remains consistent growth, but we are mindful of the risk factors. The economic environment is far from stable.......Nevertheless we have established a very good base for sustainable growth". Not so much a profit forecast - bit more of hedging your bets. He also said "the attention of high profile diseases such as the H1N1 infuluenza virus can detract from the very real but less fashionable problem of tuberculosis. Now, maybe a few press releases from those dealing with tuberculosis and tuberculosis testing might help correct the lack of profile that it has.

MM (MulgoaMan) / (Mr.Miseryguts)
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jul 28 2009, 05:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

Thanks again Skorpian,

On the basis of confidence coming back into the market, I'll give a 17.5% loading. This makes:

$3.83 with a final div. of 3c. (seems to be getting a bit crowded around there - hopefully a good sign).

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jul 24 2009, 09:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

In this morning's Australian there is a fairly lengthy article re next Mondays meeting and the background thereto. To have a read go to www.theaustralaian.news.com.au/business then link to the "what the brokers say" and scroll down to Bryan Frith "Heard above Board - Penrice".

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

mulgoaman
Posted on: Jul 16 2009, 10:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 346

I notice on Lincoln Indicators' web site that they had two seminars in Melbourne yesterday (a morning and an evening). It's likely that it would have been similar to the presentation Forrest told us about last week. This may be one plus contributing to the positive start today.
Lincolns also show they have a seminar for Brisbane this afternoon.

MM
  Forum: By Share Code

2 Pages (Click to Jump) V   1 2 >

Cant find what you are looking for? Show all active topics from the last 3 months


New Posts  New Replies
No New Posts  No New Replies
Hot topic  Hot Topic (New)
No new  Hot Topic (No New)



TERMS OF USE  -  CONTACT ADMIN  -  ADVERTISING