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NUF, NUFARM LIMITED
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 22 2019, 12:05 PM
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Article appearing in The Australian today - Big Dry may force Nufarm sell-off - suggests the company could consider a sale of its Latin American assets to its major shareholder Sumitomo as the company may need to raise further funds on the back of dry conditions here/flooding in America preventing farmers from buying its products. Some analysts are however are not convinced
As at 15th August, 2019 total short positions = 18.74%
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=NUF
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
early birds
post Posted: Aug 2 2019, 09:16 AM
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https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/08/02/jap...aguered-nufarm/


News of the placement saw Nufarm shares jump 7% at the opening and they traded higher through the rest of the session to close up 3% at $5.03.


The preference shares may be exchanged for Nufarm shares at Sumitomo’s election any time after two years time at an exchange price of $5.85 for each Nufarm share.




interest rate on the prefs tell us how tough it was for Nufarm to raise new capital from local shareholders. Nufarm will pay an interest rate of 6% for the first year (nearly $6 million a year), and this jumps to 10% for the rest of the period ($9.7 million a year). Nufarm can buy back the prefs at face value plus any unpaid distributions.
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i missed it , i were greed,y try to wait for under 4 bucks........ weirdsmiley.gif

 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 1 2019, 01:53 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jul 18 2019, 03:39 PM

SP up slightly (2.66%) on today's news re Sumitomo placement. Short positions as ar 26/7/19 = 17%
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=nuf

Placement of AUD$97.5m Preference Securities and trading update
QUOTE
Nufarm Limited (Nufarm) has undertaken the placement of $97.5 million of preference securities (PS) to
existing shareholder and strategic business partner, Sumitomo Chemical Company Limited
(Sumitomo), through a wholly owned subsidiary (Nufarm Investment Pty Ltd).

The transaction strengthens Nufarm's balance sheet as a result of the issue of an equity instrument and
builds on the longstanding relationship between Sumitomo and Nufarm.

Key terms of the security include:

• Securities may be exchanged for Nufarm shares at Sumitomo’s election any time after 24 months
at an exchange price of AUD$5.85 per Nufarm share

• Nufarm may purchase the preference securities from Sumitomo at any quarter following issue of
the securities for the full principal amount outstanding at that time and the amount of any unpaid
distributions

• A quarterly distribution at a fixed rate of 6% is payable to Sumitomo for the first 12 months and
10% thereafter. In the event Nufarm Investment Pty Ltd does not pay the distribution on the PS
Nufarm may not declare a dividend payment in respect of any of its ordinary shares or step-up
securities until all undeclared distributions are declared and paid on the PS


Also reported a downgrade

QUOTE
Nufarm also advised that the Group’s financial performance had been impacted by adverse seasonal
weather conditions and supply related impacts. The company expects to report underlying earnings
before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of around $420 million for the 2019
financial year, subject to finalisation of the accounts and audit. This compares to the previously advised
range of $440 million to $470 million and consensus estimates of $436m
.


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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jul 18 2019, 03:39 PM
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Posts: 6,217
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jul 18 2019, 03:04 PM

Shorters may not be agreeing with Morningstar smile.gif time will tell. Allan Gray also covered - Has the earnings cycle bottomed at Nufarm? One for the brave, methinks.

But an investment here is not without its risks
QUOTE
Nufarm’s debt is uncomfortably high and any missteps would require a capital raising, which the market may be fearing. While we hope that the company can do the hard work and get itself out of this situation the old fashioned way, a capital raising on its own would not destroy value, but would reduce the possible upside. There is also some risk around the acquisitions Nufarm has conducted recently. It is hard to know what normal earnings at Nufarm really look like as a result, and cash flows have historically been poor. High debt might result in greater discipline on that particular front.

And then there is glyphosate. We don’t know how that issue may unfold. Regulatory bodies around the world, including the US EPA recently, have approved glyphosate use based on scientific evidence. Even if there were a direct link between glyphosate and cancer, it is unclear what liability Nufarm would have, especially as a distributor of the active ingredient (as opposed to a manufacturer). Nufarm performs a similar service for glyphosate as pharmacists perform for approved medicinal drugs. Where these drugs are subsequently found to cause harm, it is not the pharmacist that is generally liable. If the chemical is banned, then Nufarm and other suppliers would need to supply other less-effective, often more expensive, chemicals in possibly greater quantities to meet the needs of farmers. One of those possible replacement chemicals is 2,4-D, in which Nufarm has a very strong presence through its manufacturing facilities

While there are risks in investing in Nufarm today, we believe the company is currently priced for many of those risks eventuating and persisting. If the company can do the hard work to restore the strength of the balance sheet without raising capital and if those risks do not persist, then investors should be rewarded.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/has-t...tomed-at-nufarm



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Jul 18 2019, 03:04 PM
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QUOTE
Nufarm stock screens as materially undervalued. Australian drought and integration issues with the recent AUD 575 million of European acquisitions are fuelling fears of an equity raising. Lawsuits against glyphosate manufacturer Bayer haven't helped sentiment. But we think working capital fears are overdone and expect issues to substantially unwind in the second half of fiscal 2019 in the main planting season. Our AUD 7 fair value estimate assumes Nufarm will eke out a respectable 4.7% five-year revenue compound annual growth rate to fiscal 2023.

We think Nufarm can continue to achieve considerably better-than-market-average returns, including from its seeds business with innovative omega-3 canola, in addition to capturing first real revenue accretion from fortuitous European acquisitions. The market is underestimating the top-line growth rate of Nufarm, providing an opportunity to invest in a cyclical but solid business at a margin of safety
Morningstar - Best stock ideas July



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jul 18 2019, 01:50 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Mar 26 2019, 09:17 PM

Updated chart - 5 year - showing SP recently reached a 5 year low.

Notable short alerts continue. NUF is now hot on the heels of SYR to become #1 most shorted stock - NUF @ 18.31%, SYR @ 19.78%


QUOTE
1 SYR SYRAH RESOURCES ORDINARY 19.78% 0.35
2 NUF NUFARM LIMITED ORDINARY 18.31% 0.71

https://www.shortman.com.au/top
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 


blacksheep
post Posted: Mar 26 2019, 09:17 PM
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Posts: 6,217
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Mar 20 2019, 11:57 AM

Updated chart.

Notable short alerts reported last 4 trading days. Total short positions as at 20/3/19 = 10.46%
QUOTE
Mon 25th Mar, 2019 2,480,041 379,639,334 0.65% 3,673,463 67.51%
Fri 22nd Mar, 2019 5,157,271 379,639,334 1.35% 7,451,194 69.21%
Thu 21st Mar, 2019 7,833,427 379,639,334 2.06% 12,930,248 60.58%
Wed 20th Mar, 2019 8,517,423 379,639,334 2.24% 19,904,498 42.79%

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=NUF
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Mar 20 2019, 11:57 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Mar 14 2019, 10:28 PM

Strong 1H result in the Americas offsets challenges in Australia and Europe
QUOTE
Nufarm Limited today announced underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and
amortisation (EBITDA) of $120.9 million, down 2% on the prior corresponding period, and a
statutory net loss of $13.6 million.


Nufarm Managing Director and CEO, Greg Hunt, said the half year EBITDA result reflected strong
performance in the North American, Latin American and Seed Technology businesses, which
largely offset weaker performance in Australia and Europe.

“We achieved good revenue and earnings growth in North America, Latin America and Seed
Technologies and this reflects the potential we’ve set our business up to achieve. We had a
difficult half in Australia and Europe with dry weather conditions impacting earnings in both
regions, and product availability issues further impacting results in Europe.


“We’re preparing the business to deal with tough conditions in the second half. Farmers on the
east coast of Australia are facing continued dry conditions and we’ll be scaling back manufacturing
and running down inventories in anticipation of another difficult season. This will impact profit in
the second half as we won’t be able to fully recover manufacturing overheads.

“In Europe we’re working through supply issues in the product portfolios we acquired last year. We
are currently supplied by the vendors of the portfolios and product availability has been impacted
by supply disruptions caused by improved Chinese environmental standards
. This has resulted in
lost sales and increased costs and the impact is expected to worsen as demand for product
increases in the second half. Resolving these issues is our top operational priority. We are
expediting the transfer of product registrations so we can exit the transitional supply agreements
with the vendors and bring product sourcing under Nufarm control in time for the autumn selling
season.

“Notwithstanding these transitional issues with supply, our first year of ownership of the new
European portfolio has reinforced that these are products customers want. There is strong
demand and brand loyalty and we are confident we will deliver full value from the acquisitions in
financial year 2020”.

Mr Hunt advised that the company is taking a conservative approach to managing the balance
sheet as it works through the challenges of the next six months. As a result, the interim dividend
has been suspended.

“While we acknowledge the short-term challenges, Nufarm is ultimately about growth and we’re
very positive about what we can deliver in the medium term. We have a quality product base that
is delivering growth and a strong pipeline of new products to be launched in the coming years. The
Omega 3 canola platform is progressing toward commercialisation and every milestone brings us
closer to realising a step-change in the value of our seeds business”.


SP responded accordingly - down 18.35% currently
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Mar 14 2019, 10:28 PM
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Posts: 6,217
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Mar 4 2019, 11:08 AM

Nothing fishy in Nufarm's omega-3
Crop protection company Nufarm could be sitting on a $1 billion omega-3 gold mine.
Commercial production of omega-3 canola is expected this year.
QUOTE
Nufarm’s third largest shareholder, Firetrail Investments, believes the omega-3 technology will be worth $1 billion or about half the value of the entire company if the FDA grants approval for human consumption.

The second largest shareholder in Nufarm is Ashok Jacob’s Ellerston Capital, which owns 12.6 per cent of the stock. The largest shareholder is Sumitomo Chemical with 15.9 per cent. Sumitomo’s strategic stake virtually guarantees the Japanese company access to Nufarm’s global crop protection supply chain.


QUOTE
Chatter about a possible Nufarm takeover has gained in volume over the past few weeks partly because about 5 per cent of the issued capital was traded. Chanticleer believes there has been interest in the stock from a Hong Kong based investor with a history of participating in takeovers.

read more - https://www.afr.com/brand/chanticleer/nothi...20190314-p514an


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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Mar 4 2019, 11:08 AM
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Posts: 6,217
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Mar 4 2019, 06:20 AM

and, FWIW, Deutsche Bank talking NUF up

QUOTE
Deutsche Bank rates NUF as Upgrade to Buy from Hold

After upgrading to Hold in January Deutsche Bank has now upgraded Nufarm to Buy, as the stock is now trading at a -16% discount to valuation.

The broker's valuation does not yet ascribe any value to Omega-3 canola and some delay for the acquired earnings to flow has also been allowed.

Nufarm is now trading at a -23% discount to the 10-year average of the one-year forward relative operating earnings (EBITDA) multiple, and at a -20% discount on a relative PE multiple basis.


SP up 6.97% currently @ $5.37.

Total short positions coming down - as at 25/2/19 = 7.93%
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=nuf

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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
 


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