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NUF, NUFARM LIMITED
nipper
post Posted: Jan 17 2020, 08:41 AM
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QUOTE
Agriculture business Nufarm has slashed its earnings guidance for the half year, as it issued a warning on each of its key geographies.

The group last November warned that earnings were going to be challenged, but today quantified the hit, saying it expected earnings between $55m and $65m. Last year, the group posted earnings of $120.9m in the first half.

In the Australian and New Zealand market, Nufarm warned that extreme climatic conditions had significantly reduced sales, and while forecast rainfall had the potential to lift sales the segment would record a loss.

Further afield, Nufarm’s South American and North American business are under pressure from strong competition and weak demand for crop protection products respectively, while European sales are being squeezed by higher raw material costs.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 1 2019, 02:53 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 10 2019, 08:12 PM

Updated chart - gap created in September still open. Total short positions as at 25/11/19 have come down = 7.38%

Article appearing in SMH mentions NUF
Should you really be worried about using Roundup?
The Germans have banned it and 18,400 Americans are suing over it. What is glyphosate and why is it so controversial?

QUOTE
One of the Australian suppliers of glyphosate herbicides is Nufarm. The company warned in June that it was at risk of litigation because it was a supplier of glyphosate-based herbicides and, on September 30, told investors that the chemical continued to be under “intense legal and community pressure”.

But Nufarm CEO Gregg Hunt said he had been reassured by the US Environmental Protection Agency’s position released in April that there was no causal link between glyphosate and cancer. He said the chances of Nufarm being involved in any legal action was “very low” because it only had a very small market share in the US compared to industry leader Monsanto.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/s...922-p52tsq.html

But that "small market share in the US" can still take legal action, as can anyone in Australia impacted. Monsanto is a much larger company than NUF Monsanto was a Forbes 2000 global company with a market cap of some $55 billion and therefore able to withstand these legal cases much better than NUF with a market cap of $1.8 billion. Monsanto was taken over by Bayer. Bayer's MC as at 29/11/19 is $71.4 billion.

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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 25 2019, 09:13 PM
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Nufarm has shed more than $400 million in value after declaring an earnings downgrade on rebate issues in Germany and severe trading conditions in North America. The latter will cost the company $20 million in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), and the company blamed it on lower demand and high inventories.

"Trading conditions have been difficult for [the 2020 financial year] to date," a statement to the ASX said. "And this has resulted in lower earnings in all regions for the first quarter compared to the prior year."

Investors were hardly understanding, sending Nufarm's share price tumbling down almost 18 per cent to $5.07 in early afternoon trading on Monday,
. - seasonal fluctuations?!?!?



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 10 2019, 08:12 PM
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Updated chart.

Change in substantial holding notice out this afternoon - Ellerston Capital selling down circa 8 mil shares - previously 13.89%, now 11.70% - taking advantage of higher SP
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191010/pdf/...ctlxg3h49x0.pdf

Total short position as at 4/10/19 = 12.39%
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=NUF
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 30 2019, 03:59 PM
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Seen reference to Omega-3 with three different companies - NUF, Bellamy's BAL (just sold to the Chinese) and Clover CLV (which I hold and which has gone up 40-50% in the last week)
QUOTE
For those of you who aren’t familiar with the project, Nufarm is on track to be first to market with a sustainable, scalable, alternative source of long chain Omega-3. This is a growing market that is supply constrained due to environmentally driven fishing quotas. The market deficit is considerable, and our proprietary Omega-3 canola oil is a land-based solution that is cost competitive and sustainable.

We’re initially targeting the aquaculture market where we will market Omega-3 canola oil as a replacement for fish oil in fish-feed. There is an expanding deficit in this market, and we estimate each percentage point of market share in that deficit by 2028 will generate around $8.5m of EBITDA for Nufarm.

Beyond that we have plans to explore the nutraceutical, food ingredients and ultimately pharmaceutical markets.


QUOTE
Omega-3 canola
Excellent results involving >1 million fish with multiple aquaculture partners
First sales expected in new calendar year
Expected to be EBITDA positive from FY21

First to market Intellectual property position strengthened
• Multiple additional patents granted in FY19
• US federal court infringement against other parties to be heard in October 2019

Regulatory approvals progressing
• Food, feed and cultivation approvals secured in Australia (since FY18)
• USA cultivation approval secured with food and feed approval pending
• Canadian food, feed and cultivation pending
• Applications filed in China, Korea, Japan and Europe




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 30 2019, 02:17 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Sep 30 2019, 01:29 PM

QUOTE
Nufarm chief executive Greg Hunt did the right thing by selling the company’s best performing business in Latin America for $1.2 billion to Japanese multi-national Sumitomo Chemical.

In one move, he has wiped out those shorting his stock, removed most of the debt weighing down the balance sheet, strengthened the relationship with Sumitomo and forced the market to rethink the fundamental value of global crop protection businesses.

As an added bonus, Hunt has been able to retain 100 per cent ownership of the highly prospective Omega-3 canola operation, which is expected to be earnings positive in 2021....
AFR

Interesting point ... rewarded for selling best part of the biz.. But then with shorts at 18%, based on the threat of breaching debt covenants, now that has been removed, there must be a lot of 'short covering'.

QUOTE
in July, Sumitomo invested $97.5 million in Nufarm preference shares to help the company through a squeeze in working capital. The debt on Nufarm’s balance sheet is subject to reasonably large fluctuations because of the impact of seasonal conditions on working capital
.... Currency risk, slow payers, unpredictable harvests. !! Probably a good thing to get out of S America



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 

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blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 30 2019, 02:15 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 22 2019, 12:05 PM

Looks like the speculation in the Australian back in August was correct - "Article appearing in The Australian today - Big Dry may force Nufarm sell-off - suggests the company could consider a sale of its Latin American assets to its major shareholder Sumitomo as the company may need to raise further funds on the back of dry conditions here/flooding in America preventing farmers from buying its products. Some analysts are however are not convinced" - would have sent shorters running to cover. NUF has been the most shorted stock on Shortman's list for some time with (currently) 17.59% https://www.shortman.com.au/top

NUF's announcement today

Sale of Nufarm South America to Sumitomo for $1,188 million
QUOTE
Nufarm Limited ("Nufarm") today announced it had entered into an agreement to sell its South
American crop protection and seed treatment operations in Brazil, Argentina, Colombia and Chile
("Nufarm South America") to Sumitomo Chemical Company Limited ("Sumitomo") for $1,188 million
cash (on a cash-free, debt-free basis and subject to customary net working capital adjustments on
completion) ("Transaction").
Nufarm has also extended its existing commercial agreements and entered into new commercial
arrangements with Sumitomo.
Transaction highlights
• Sale of Nufarm South America to Sumitomo for $1,188 million cash (on a cash-free, debtfree basis and subject to customary net working capital adjustments on completion). Nuseed
assets are not included in the sale
• Price represents a multiple of c.10x FY19 Underlying EBITDA1 and a multiple of c.12.3x
FY19 Underlying EBITDA2 after adjusting for the net costs associated with working capital
management and operational FX hedging
• Nufarm confirmed as the preferred commercialisation partner for Sumitomo’s proprietary
fungicides Pavecto and Indiflin in Germany, Poland and the United Kingdom
• Nufarm and Sumitomo will enter into a two year supply agreement and transitional services
agreement under which Nufarm will provide procurement services and continued supply of
certain products to the South American businesses
• Existing Master Agreements between Nufarm and Sumitomo for product development and
commercialisation extended to 2025, with a mechanism to further extend the term
• The Transaction is unanimously recommended by the Board of Nufarm3 (subject to there
being no superior proposal for Nufarm South America or Nufarm and, subject to an
Independent Expert concluding that the Transaction is fair and reasonable to Nufarm
shareholders other than Sumitomo)
• Nufarm will purchase the $97.5m preference securities issued to Sumitomo in August 2019
at completion of the Transaction
• Completion of the Transaction targeted for 1H FY20, subject to Nufarm shareholder approval
as well as competition approval by the relevant South American regulatory bodies
Further details of the Transaction are set out in the Appendix to this announcement.

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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 30 2019, 01:29 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Aug 2 2019, 09:16 AM

https://www.afr.com/companies/agriculture/n...y_Sent=30092019


The Nufarm share price jumped more than 30 per cent in early trading to $5.80 on the back of the planned sale.

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missed it again!!! weirdsmiley.gif




Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 22 2019, 12:05 PM
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Article appearing in The Australian today - Big Dry may force Nufarm sell-off - suggests the company could consider a sale of its Latin American assets to its major shareholder Sumitomo as the company may need to raise further funds on the back of dry conditions here/flooding in America preventing farmers from buying its products. Some analysts are however are not convinced
As at 15th August, 2019 total short positions = 18.74%
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=NUF
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
early birds
post Posted: Aug 2 2019, 09:16 AM
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https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/08/02/jap...aguered-nufarm/


News of the placement saw Nufarm shares jump 7% at the opening and they traded higher through the rest of the session to close up 3% at $5.03.


The preference shares may be exchanged for Nufarm shares at Sumitomo’s election any time after two years time at an exchange price of $5.85 for each Nufarm share.




interest rate on the prefs tell us how tough it was for Nufarm to raise new capital from local shareholders. Nufarm will pay an interest rate of 6% for the first year (nearly $6 million a year), and this jumps to 10% for the rest of the period ($9.7 million a year). Nufarm can buy back the prefs at face value plus any unpaid distributions.
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i missed it , i were greed,y try to wait for under 4 bucks........ weirdsmiley.gif

 
 


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