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GTP, GREAT SOUTHERN LIMITED
Zeus
post Posted: Dec 18 2008, 01:41 AM
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QUOTE (farmer fred @ Wednesday 17/12/08 04:57pm)

FF,

Thanks for your greetings.

I am OK, but sad to see $billions of MIS investors, shareholders, banks and taxpayers' money evaporated into the air.

To my dismay, GTP seems still able to perform a further daylight robbery against the investors by forcing them to surrender their entitlement for worthless GTP shares.

Hope no more people in this forum would be harmed in this latest episode.

 
farmer fred
post Posted: Dec 17 2008, 04:57 PM
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In reply to: Zeus on Wednesday 17/12/08 02:09pm

Hi Zeus,
The unfortunate thing is a lot of people have been hurt in the process, but I guess thats the nature of these schemes. Hope you've weathered this sharemarket well over the last year.
Regards ff

 
farmer fred
post Posted: Dec 17 2008, 04:42 PM
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In reply to: Barra on Wednesday 17/12/08 08:25am

Hi barra,
Sorry dont know any site that gives latest pricing on woodchip, just read a report that mentioned some closures of pulp mills in Japan with the recession over there is causing a bit of downward pressure on the price of woodchips. The lower $aus will probably help cushion the drop. I think the price is set early each year by negotiation and the economy has certainly tanked a bit since the last lot.
You know a lot more about Gunns than me, and as you say they are not as dependant on MIS as GTP or TIM, but I'm still reluctant to invest in them. Some positive writeup from Robert Gottliebsen, at least for the short term.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf...Document&src=is
Cheers ff

 
Zeus
post Posted: Dec 17 2008, 02:09 PM
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MIS business model is DEAD. No wonder both GTP and TIM said (to the effect) "continuation of the business is now a concern". LOL!

What these companies have been playing to the investors, shareholders and banks is a Madoff type ROBBING PETER TO PAY PAUL trick, but now the banks want the money back!

The latest development in GTP to force investors to swap their entitlements with GTP shares is another example of this kind of trick, but it won’t save the boat at all.

 
Barra
post Posted: Dec 17 2008, 08:25 AM
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In reply to: farmer fred on Tuesday 16/12/08 06:31pm


Thanks for the assessment ff..

I certainly owe you some thanks for helping me avoid GTP at around $2!

Any idea where you can find the latest prices on woodchips? The best I can find are 6 months old and they're saying woodchip prices were on the up in the first half of 08.

Makes sense that the slowdown would hurt prices , less fibre demand for composite boards etc, but on the flip side the measures being taken to snuff out illegal logging would be putting upward pressure on prices - From what I read efforts are focuing on the worst areas iin Brazil and Sth East Asia using satellite imagery to track illegal operators and shut them down. could be p..ssing in the wind, but maybe its putting a dent in supply?

Overall I figure wood is another example of where we are approaching a peak in supply and those that hold a license to trade in legit timber will profit over the next decade.

GNS is well placed here , if only they could stop cutting corners and alienating the environmentalists. Despite what J Gay thinks , I reckon there is a middle ground for GNS. I agree the pulp mill is unlikely to proceed - it was a crazy idea to push for it when Wesley Vale (89) gave a clear precedent as to what would happen. Gone are the days when profit motive can override all other considerations- eg GNS can't buy the Council or farmers out to put in their water pipeline..people in that valley won't cop a cheque to lose what matters.

Question is if the deal sinks what will it do for GNS' sp? Logic would say it might sink on the basis that all that money (150 million ) has been wasted..but maybe that is already priced in

I reckon it will be positive becuase it will mean GNS must change direction and evolve . MIS is not really their primary money stream , although it has helped them in years past.

There is already a little new blood on the board in the form of the ex head of Hills Industries. Just needs someone to put it on a new path and it will be rerated given it has access to so much timber which one day will pass peak supply. If timber companies in Swizterland can operate profitably then logic says it can be done in Tassie.

Cheers

Barra




 
farmer fred
post Posted: Dec 16 2008, 06:31 PM
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In reply to: Barra on Tuesday 16/12/08 05:26pm

Hi Barra,
Never been a fan of MIS companies and GNS would have similar problems to GTP and TIM, though they have made a bit of headroom in their debt with the sale of their forests and their capital raising. Apparently a bit of downward pressure in the chip prices in this downturn and more export chips available from South Africa, Chile and Brazil. Cant see the pulp mill going ahead in this sort of enviroment. Still dont know if MIS companies will be able to utilize carbon credits, can see it making sense for timber but not for woodchips used for pulp, like you say all depends on the government. Be less companies competing for MIS investors now but with the returns they're getting cant see to many would be interested. Only positive I can see is their low price earnings at the moment.
Cheers ff

 

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Barra
post Posted: Dec 16 2008, 05:26 PM
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In reply to: farmer fred on Tuesday 16/12/08 09:47am


Hey Farmer Fred

Off topic but its interesting to note that the only focused carbon sink play CO2 group's share price is going down because the gov't in its wisdom has let its biggest customer - woodside- off the hook ..

Was once chasing the carbon sink opportunity , but have decided its all too dependant on little twits in regulation (was meant to be twists but I see its apt!) -

Not unlike the fortunes of the MIS sector- the gov't giveth too easily and the top execs taketh away too easily .

Any thoughts on GNS? Bad rap sheet , but could turn a corner somewhere in 2009 me thinks?


Cheers

barras







 
farmer fred
post Posted: Dec 16 2008, 09:47 AM
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In reply to: SAM172 on Tuesday 16/12/08 09:40am

I think it may be the carbon trading scheme.

http://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/article/2...inion-news.html


Said 'Thanks' for this post: Barra  
 
BSA
post Posted: Dec 16 2008, 09:43 AM
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In reply to: SAM172 on Tuesday 16/12/08 08:40am

Hi Sam,

Vol has been light on the bounce thus far,...I did not look at todays price action with my previous reply,...nice jump today.



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SAM172
post Posted: Dec 16 2008, 09:40 AM
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In reply to: BSA on Tuesday 16/12/08 10:31am

Well, that whould be a simple explanation - guess will have to wait and see if that's the case..

Government Carbon trading policy may also be a factor..



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Uncle Sam
 
 


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