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CUV, CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED
PortugueseMan
post Posted: Sep 23 2019, 07:06 PM
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October 6th... almost there!!! wacko.gif



 
polyphemus
post Posted: Sep 23 2019, 03:55 PM
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I expect earnings of closer to 60c per share this year, just based on FDA approval with Jun quarter in sales, plus a larger than expected growth in distribution in Europe.

That puts the stock price at AUD$40-$50 with conservative PE ratios.
I believe any short fund would be expecting a stock specific fall on approval due to exaggerated expectations. As we know that is not how this stock trades.

FDA approval will give a rise in sales greater than 100% on an annualised basis and also will trigger to new market applications Japan and Aus. That is the fundamentals.

The real share price growth will be R&D based expectation, releasing the Kraken of $50m in cash + $30m pa cash flow on hand into new market and product.
The new market and products strategy will be a huge part of the annual general meeting this year. If management come up with an Squiddly Diddly plan then the stock price will suffer.

The current Benefit to Risk question is already answered with only supply chain risks and distribution execution risks will be known after approval


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Dr Wally
post Posted: Sep 23 2019, 03:09 PM
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In Reply To: macgyver's post @ Sep 23 2019, 02:27 PM

Haha wouldn’t that be a shame! well hopefully it did and hopefully they get belted!

But as per usual, whether they end up getting crushed (like they should) or we end up getting done over (once again) all hangs on the luvly guys at the FDA doesn’t it.

Sorry I think You’ve taken my words of encouragement over the years the wrong way. I actually feel a great deal of love and affection towards the people behind this smooth, pain free, incredibly efficient road to approval for this extremely safe, life changingly effective skin cancer preventative drug, at the FDA.

As you know they’ve been dying to approve Scenesse since 2004-5 it’s just that management has been so dumb all these years!😑



--------------------
“” The discovery of the endogenous melanocortin agonists in the 1950s have resulted in sixty years of melanocortin ligand research.””

The never ending quest to have Afamelanotide (peptide) accepted for its potent ability to stimulate a natural photoprotective,cancer preventative, therapeutic “tan” was accomplished in 2019.

Regulator ignorance, bias, and stubborn resistance to Scenesse are the primary reasons behind this glacial journey. The evidence should be clear to all by now.
 
bretto32
post Posted: Sep 23 2019, 02:48 PM
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In Reply To: Verharven's post @ Sep 23 2019, 02:15 PM

I've actually been considering that the shorter's are completely controlling the trading of these shares. With it held so tightly by LTH's and the shorters bringing basically 3 000 000 extra shares into the market, they can trade between themselves to push the price down and swallow any actual share holders selling in the meantime. Lets be honest the LTH's can only "top up" so many times before they run out of money. I would suggest these shorter's have bought and sold that many times that they can survive a pretty big bump from approval and not lose their house.

In saying that I would also expect when the approval does come through the shorts will close their position and leave us alone to an extent. But right now with no one wanting to sell before approval they are the only ones buying and selling at this point.


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Verharven
post Posted: Sep 23 2019, 02:46 PM
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In Reply To: Dr Wally's post @ Sep 23 2019, 02:41 PM

When you're short, the maximum profit you can make is your initial investment from selling the shares (minus the shorting loan fee) if the company were to go belly up (so don't need to repurchase the shares) while your maximum losses are unlimited. It is not a long-term strategy.

 
Dr Wally
post Posted: Sep 23 2019, 02:41 PM
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In Reply To: bretto32's post @ Sep 23 2019, 02:13 PM


Ok, so they win in the “short” term 😑 with another delay or rejection as that would obviously destroy the SP for some time.

They get cooked with FDA approval that (even though it doesn’t seem like it now) will most definitely blow up somewhat on the day and the weeks months that follow as the market process and comprehend what that gamechanging decision REALLY means......... Clinuvel 2.0😎

There’s obviously a time frame as to when they have to replace these “borrowed” shares? The sooner the better would be my completely unqualified advice.



--------------------
“” The discovery of the endogenous melanocortin agonists in the 1950s have resulted in sixty years of melanocortin ligand research.””

The never ending quest to have Afamelanotide (peptide) accepted for its potent ability to stimulate a natural photoprotective,cancer preventative, therapeutic “tan” was accomplished in 2019.

Regulator ignorance, bias, and stubborn resistance to Scenesse are the primary reasons behind this glacial journey. The evidence should be clear to all by now.
 

sentifi.com

Share Cafe Sentifi Top themes and market attention on:


macgyver
post Posted: Sep 23 2019, 02:27 PM
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In Reply To: Dr Wally's post @ Sep 23 2019, 01:48 PM

I think your hatred for the FDA and the constant negativity in your posts concerning the FDA has probably influenced the shorters.

 
Verharven
post Posted: Sep 23 2019, 02:15 PM
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In Reply To: bretto32's post @ Sep 23 2019, 02:13 PM

Yes and as I write this, CUV is down 3.68% and NEA down 3.56% on a slightly green day for the market. It's TA shorting all the way - they probably have no idea what PDUFA even stands for.


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bretto32
post Posted: Sep 23 2019, 02:13 PM
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In Reply To: Dr Wally's post @ Sep 23 2019, 01:48 PM

A few people have already covered this but it is highly likely there is absolutely no correlation between the shorting and the upcoming approval date.

Compare these two graphs....they are basically identical.

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=NEA
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=CUV



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Dr Wally
post Posted: Sep 23 2019, 01:48 PM
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In Reply To: Verharven's post @ Sep 23 2019, 01:17 PM

What could they possibly be seeing thats giving them the confidence to be betting against FDA approval in the face of all the positives? Strange!

That last delay when most thought FDA approval was a certainty has got to be behind their confidence. That and the history of Clinuvel and the attitude of the majority of regulators over the years. Maybe their sensing a EMA style debacle. 🤬

It’s going to be a strange feeling (after FDA approval) waking up without the uncertainty, wondering when Clinuvel will ever be allowed to move forward into the prosperous future that it deserves.



--------------------
“” The discovery of the endogenous melanocortin agonists in the 1950s have resulted in sixty years of melanocortin ligand research.””

The never ending quest to have Afamelanotide (peptide) accepted for its potent ability to stimulate a natural photoprotective,cancer preventative, therapeutic “tan” was accomplished in 2019.

Regulator ignorance, bias, and stubborn resistance to Scenesse are the primary reasons behind this glacial journey. The evidence should be clear to all by now.
 
 


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